# Industry News: Nikon to end camera production in Japan



## Canon Rumors Guy (Dec 20, 2020)

> It looks like Nikon is making some major decisions during their restructuring. After more than 70 years, Nikon will end camera manufacturing in Japan and will move all production to Thailand by the end of 2021.
> From Asahi (Google Translated)
> At last, Nikon will end the domestic production of camera bodies that has continued for more than 70 years. Until now, body manufacturing has been carried out at “Sendai Nikon” in Miyagi Prefecture and “Nikon Thailand (NTC)” in Thailand, but in order to reduce costs, it will be concentrated at the Thai factory.
> Production of the mirrorless cameras Z 7 and Z 6 was completed at the end of September, and preparations for the transfer of production to Thailand have begun in October. Production of the D6 digital SLR will also be transferred to Thailand by the end of 2021. (translated)
> I do wonder how this will affect the used market, will a Japan-made Nikon D6 retain value better than a...



Continue reading...


----------



## Joules (Dec 20, 2020)

While at times it may feel satisfying to see Canon dominating just to balance out the '******* trolls', this sounds like bad news for customers and the industry as a whole. It is not a good thing for anybody to see competitors struggle.


----------



## KeithBreazeal (Dec 20, 2020)

Whoa! Didn't see that coming. I know Nikon is struggling, but it's like a national pride kind of thing.


----------



## dolina (Dec 20, 2020)

Camera industry has been in decline for nearly a decade. Coincidentally the iPhone came out followed by Android smartphones.

Unlike Canon and Nikon, Sony saw the writings on the wall and put their efforts into being the image sensor of the top 50% of all smartphones sold. That's why their mirrorless cameras have superior tech as compared to Canon or Nikon.

What Canon and Nikon had were a very robust lens and accessories lineup and after sales support.

COVID-19 did not help in terms of supply chain or professionals needing a camera to cover events as almost all events were cancelled.

I expect Canon, Sony and other brands to relocate their production lines to South East Asia. Hopefully to the Philippines like Pentax in Cebu.


----------



## Joules (Dec 20, 2020)

dolina said:


> That's why their mirrorless cameras have superior tech as compared to Canon or Nikon.


Spoiler alert: The Canon R5 sensor is in no way inferior to Sony sensors.

And Nikon use Sony sensors...


----------



## Deleted member 381342 (Dec 20, 2020)

It makes a lot of sense to produce outside of Japan and Nikon have with Z been moving to a almost just in time production. And the Nikon build quality has been really high with the Made in Thailand editions, all the Z glass is really top form.


----------



## privatebydesign (Dec 20, 2020)

Joules said:


> While at times it may feel satisfying to see Canon dominating just to balance out the '******* trolls', this sounds like bad news for customers and the industry as a whole. It is not a good thing for anybody to see competitors struggle.


Not really, for decades the bulk camera market was dominated by two companies, Canon and Nikon, with a variety of others taking much smaller market share. Moving forwards the bulk market will be dominated by Canon and Sony with Nikon moving to being one of the others but with a larger sales share.

We will have moved from two dominance’s and bit players, to two and a half dominants with bit players.


----------



## Bert63 (Dec 20, 2020)

I’m probably wrong (usually am) but if Japan is willing to go to this extreme Nikon might be in worse financial trouble than I imagined.

For Japan to send jobs and manufacturing offshore has got to be a hit to national pride.

Not like the US where we’d sell our little brother to save a buck or two.


----------



## privatebydesign (Dec 20, 2020)

dolina said:


> Camera industry has been in decline for nearly a decade. Coincidentally the iPhone came out followed by Android smartphones.
> 
> Unlike Canon and Nikon, Sony saw the writings on the wall and put their efforts into being the image sensor of the top 50% of all smartphones sold. That's why their mirrorless cameras have superior tech as compared to Canon or Nikon.
> 
> ...


That is such a distorted view of the market.

Yes it has been in decline for a decade, but it underwent unprecedented growth before that. In reality the market is returning to historical norms.

Canon have diversified very successfully. Sony sensor division was spun off years ago and has nothing to do with their camera division.

Corporations moving production to leverage cheaper facilities and labor is a time tested tradition, nothing particular startling or surprising in the announcement at all. Nikon are only talking about consolidating production in Thailand where the bulk of their manufacture ring was already done anyway.


----------



## Deleted member 381342 (Dec 20, 2020)

Bert63 said:


> I’m probably wrong (usually am) but if Japan is willing to go to this extreme Nikon might be in worse financial trouble than I imagined.
> 
> For Japan to send jobs and manufacturing offshore has got to be a hit to national pride.
> 
> Not like the US where we’d sell our little brother to save a buck or two.



They were making the highly successful D850, D500, and the not so successful Z cameras in Thailand already. And all the Z lenses are in Nikon factories in Thailand and China and these are excellent lenses with almost no sample variation. 
Nikon seems to have caught on fast that producing everything in Japan is a bad idea, if I am not mistaken one of the big factories there was hit by a tsunami. 
The build quality in my Z lenses feels way better than the F lenses. The jobs that mater to Japan will still be the lens design. And now they are diversified if something buggers up in Thailand or China.


----------



## bellorusso (Dec 20, 2020)

The company was kinda in trouble when Nikon decided to use Sony sensors. Sony would never sell things to competitors to hurt its own business. That decision made Nikon fans wonder if they should switch to Sony, which undoubtedly saved better sensors for its own cameras. In that moment Nikon instantly jump down below Canon and Sony as a camera manufacture and from there Nikon could only fall down further.


----------



## nikkito (Dec 20, 2020)

Nikon ist ******* (?)


----------



## tmroper (Dec 20, 2020)

dolina said:


> Unlike Canon and Nikon, Sony saw the writings on the wall and put their efforts into being the image sensor of the top 50% of all smartphones sold. That's why their mirrorless cameras have superior tech as compared to Canon or Nikon.



Senors in digital cameras are commodity silicon products and are in no way "superior tech." But since you mentioned Apple, their new M1 SOC is very much superior tech, and innovation like that is why they take the lion's share of the margins on their products. Sony's just another contract supplier.


----------



## Sporgon (Dec 20, 2020)

Then the running ten year "they've discontinued it - no they haven't" debate on the F6 production is probably coming to an end; the latest rumour that Nikon aren't building anymore new ones is probably true.

I doubt that moving all production to Thailand and closing the factory in Japan has anything to do with struggling anymore now than before; the company clearly needs to make more margin. 

Personally, and I know this has no rational reasoning behind it, but I like the fact that my 5DSs are made in Japan.


----------



## Deleted member 381342 (Dec 20, 2020)

bellorusso said:


> The company was kinda in trouble when Nikon decided to use Sony sensors. Sony would never sell things to competitors to hurt its own business. That decision made Nikon fans wonder if they should switch to Sony, which undoubtedly saved better sensors for its own cameras. In that moment Nikon instantly jump down below Canon and Sony as a camera manufacture and from there Nikon could only fall down further.



Sony sensors are used in the low end bodies like the Z6. The D850, D5, D6, Z7, and Z7ii all use Nikon designed sensors that Sony manufacture but have no say on. It is akin to saying the M1, Geforce 3090, and a whole bunch of products at TSMC chips. The Nikon designed sensors could be produced by someone else. The Sony off the shelf sensors in the low end models makes it it a good deal for Sony, they can compete with Canon much better as a duo.


----------



## David - Sydney (Dec 20, 2020)

Different countries are on different learning curves for manufacturing quality. Depends also on product type. There was a time when German and Japanese manufacturing was very poor quality but cheap post WWII. That changed over time to be high labour price and high quality. China, Korea and Taiwan went through the same process and now other countries with lower labour rates have manufacturing being moved there. The rag trade is notorious to chase the cheapest labour rates with Bangladesh and Vietnam being 2 of the current options. Car manufacturing is a little distorted due to country requirements and subsidies but it is clear how quality has improved over time vs price per country.


----------



## Kit. (Dec 20, 2020)

David - Sydney said:


> There was a time when German and Japanese manufacturing was very poor quality but cheap post WWII.


I think you are confused about Germany.


----------



## unfocused (Dec 20, 2020)

Kit. said:


> I think you are confused about Germany.


Perhaps he is thinking of East Germany. Soviet block countries generally had very poor quality.


----------



## unfocused (Dec 20, 2020)

I'm sure this is a cost-saving measure. They will probably save quite a bit on labor costs.


----------



## Deleted member 381342 (Dec 20, 2020)

unfocused said:


> I'm sure this is a cost-saving measure. They will probably save quite a bit on labor costs.



They aren't closing the Japanese factory and already produce some of their biggest hits our of the Thailand one. Also this isn't like they are outsourcing; they own the factory in Thailand. It likely has better connections for parts too as they'll be hundred factories around it. Rather than needing to wait a month for screws to come into Japan from China.


----------



## Lucas Tingley (Dec 20, 2020)

so where is nikon being manufactured now?

USA and where else


----------



## s66 (Dec 20, 2020)

Kit. said:


> I think you are confused about Germany.


Actually "Made in Germany" was forced onto the Germans as a warning initially. The quality of their work changed it from a warning into a label of pride and as such of quality, craftmanship etc.
See more here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_Germany


----------



## David - Sydney (Dec 21, 2020)

Kit. said:


> I think you are confused about Germany.


You are probably correct as I'm not a historian but a few things did occur:
The Morgenthau Plan towards pastoralisation with the destruction of 1500 heavy manufacturing plants, car production down to 10% of pre-war capacity and a lack of access to quality raw materials eg steel. The Soviets were reported to be even more heavy handed for dismantling manufacturing in east germany.
Massive theft of German intellectual property and no reason to develop IP in Germany as it could not be patentable for a long time
Operation paperclip to move the best German scientists to the US
Initial hyperinflation reducing the labour costs relative to the west but this turned around with stability in the '50s with the D mark
The Berlin wall stopped east Germans moving to the west and cheaper labour came from southern Europe.
The Soviet state planned manufacturing outputs were based on quotas and not really known for quality.

One major difference in moving manufacturing from Japan to other countries is the lack of keiretsu (interlinked local subsidiaries) and just-in-time manufacturing from short distance sub contractors/suppliers.

As an aside, mainland China had (for a long time) a controlled cost labour force and used a variety of methods to transfer technology from foreign companies in exchange for minority stakes. I worked in Shanghai in the mid-90s in the telco manufacturing industry and it was an eye-opening experience.


----------



## dwarven (Dec 21, 2020)

Sporgon said:


> Personally, and I know this has no rational reasoning behind it, but I like the fact that my 5DSs are made in Japan.



I'd rather that a larger % of my money ends up in the hands of a country that doesn't have near slave labor.


----------



## dolina (Dec 21, 2020)

Joules said:


> Spoiler alert: The Canon R5 sensor is in no way inferior to Sony sensors.
> 
> And Nikon use Sony sensors...


How many months has the R5 sensor been out?

How many years has Sony's mirrorless image sensors been the tech leader?

Nikon uses in-house image sensors and Sony sensors when economically applicable.


----------



## dolina (Dec 21, 2020)

privatebydesign said:


> That is such a distorted view of the market.
> 
> Yes it has been in decline for a decade, but it underwent unprecedented growth before that. In reality the market is returning to historical norms.
> 
> ...


The bulk of the market was for consumer cameras. Smartphones ate into it that's why almost all of today's point and shoots are positioned for the premium market with large sensors or specialized with super zooms or under water.

Smartphone cameras has gotten so good that they are bought every 2-3 years that it made most consumers not consider buying a new dedicated camera anymore.

To the point that I saw one CIPA (or other market) research pointing to male retirees as a major purchaser of camera gear right after professional photograpehrs.


----------



## dolina (Dec 21, 2020)

tmroper said:


> Senors in digital cameras are commodity silicon products and are in no way "superior tech." But since you mentioned Apple, their new M1 SOC is very much superior tech, and innovation like that is why they take the lion's share of the margins on their products. Sony's just another contract supplier.


For a period of time Sony image sensors for smartphones were the preferred image sensors for flagship smartphones like the iPhone.

That is how Sony was able to raise R&D money to improve their larger image sensor cameras.

Selling hundreds of millions of smartphoens also was a way for Apple to scratch up R&D money to improve their IPhone chips and ultimately allows for M1 chips for the Mac.

Nikon's management did not look for new applications of their image sensor tech and appear to solely focused on an already shrinking digital camera market.

2020 will be a record worst year for the global digital still camera market. Would not be surprised when 2021 comes about that smaller brands will either file for bankruptcy or be bought out by Canon or Sony.

With less volume of dedicated cameras sold expect a rise in selling price of bodies, lenses and accessories for mirrorless systems


----------



## unfocused (Dec 21, 2020)

unfocused said:


> I'm sure this is a cost-saving measure. They will probably save quite a bit on labor costs.





Codebunny said:


> They aren't closing the Japanese factory and already produce some of their biggest hits our of the Thailand one. Also this isn't like they are outsourcing; they own the factory in Thailand. It likely has better connections for parts too as they'll be hundred factories around it. Rather than needing to wait a month for screws to come into Japan from China.



I never said they are outsourcing. I said it would save them money on labor costs. 

From the article: 


> Until now, body manufacturing has been carried out at "Sendai Nikon" in Miyagi Prefecture and "Nikon Thailand (NTC)" in Thailand, *but in order to reduce costs*, it will be concentrated at the Thai factory...
> 
> ...The Sendai production plant (Sendai Nikon) will *transfer the camera production* that has continued for about 40 years to the Thai plant, but will continue to produce the high-performance and high-precision *parts required for video products.*



This is a chart of minimum wages around the world. It looks like hourly minimum wage in Japan is between $7-9, while in Thailand it is about $10 per *day. *I'm sure skilled workers get more, but if the daily wage in Thailand is about equal to the hourly wage in Japan, that's a significant savings.


----------



## HMC11 (Dec 21, 2020)

It's always a sad affair for the local population that is affected when manufacturing gets moved overseas as there would be a loss of jobs for those in the sectors concerned. Even if 'replacement' manufacturing can somehow emerge (which is not necessarily the case), it would be a different group of workers who benefit. It's true that such offshoring makes financial sense for the company involves, but it follows an economic model that lawfully requires corporations to make money for shareholders. Whatever practices that can gain a financial advantage legally, even if ethically questionable, would be pursued eventually by someone willing to strive towards greater profits regardless of social costs.

This move by Nikon could potentially mean more competitive pricing, so it would be 'great' for photographers etc. However, as with most competition, it would likely end with with only a few players left through mergers and/or buyouts. When that happens, the monopolistic power of the remaining players would mean much higher prices for consumers. We'd better enjoy it while it lasts.


----------



## dolina (Dec 21, 2020)

HMC11 said:


> This move by Nikon could potentially mean more competitive pricing, so it would be 'great' for photographers etc. However, as with most competition, it would likely end with with only a few players left through mergers and/or buyouts. When that happens, the monopolistic power of the remaining players would mean much higher prices for consumers. We'd better enjoy it while it lasts.


Number of globally shipped cameras, lenses and accessories have been in decline YoY. 

Even when no monopolies/duopolies are put into play it means prices of gear will go up as economies of scale is shrinking.

I could see a future where in only Canon and Sony being the only player by mid 20s.


----------



## tmroper (Dec 21, 2020)

dolina said:


> For a period of time Sony image sensors for smartphones were the preferred image sensors for flagship smartphones like the iPhone.
> 
> That is how Sony was able to raise R&D money to improve their larger image sensor cameras.



Sony is a huge conglomerate with money coming in from all kinds of different sources. At the dawn of their Alpha mirrorless camera era, they made most of their money from insurance. That's where they got the R&D money to venture into making sensors and cameras to use them. But they've also been making mirrorless digital cameras for decades now, in the form of camcorders, ENG cameras, etc. So they got about 30 years' head start on Nikon for that technology. Their business model is very different from Nikon's--always has been, always will be.


----------



## Mt Spokane Photography (Dec 21, 2020)

One of the likely big reasons for leaving Japan is the inability to hire workers. Its a huge problem for Japanese businesses. They must import contract labor from other Asian countries. Moving production to Thailand solves that. The workers are in high demand and will find jobs, but if they have to move to a new job, that's a tragedy.

Worker shortage in Japan to hit 6.4m by 2030, survey finds - Nikkei Asia


----------



## David - Sydney (Dec 21, 2020)

HMC11 said:


> It's always a sad affair for the local population that is affected when manufacturing gets moved overseas as there would be a loss of jobs for those in the sectors concerned. Even if 'replacement' manufacturing can somehow emerge (which is not necessarily the case), it would be a different group of workers who benefit. It's true that such offshoring makes financial sense for the company involves, but it follows an economic model that lawfully requires corporations to make money for shareholders. Whatever practices that can gain a financial advantage legally, even if ethically questionable, would be pursued eventually by someone willing to strive towards greater profits regardless of social costs.
> 
> This move by Nikon could potentially mean more competitive pricing, so it would be 'great' for photographers etc. However, as with most competition, it would likely end with with only a few players left through mergers and/or buyouts. When that happens, the monopolistic power of the remaining players would mean much higher prices for consumers. We'd better enjoy it while it lasts.


The law of comparative advantage is still valid today assuming free trade. Setting aside tariffs/importation duties and subsidies for local production, competition will always mean chasing lower costs if quality can be maintained or at an acceptable level. The latter is always the key issue!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
The Australian government propped up the local car manufacturing plants to the tune of billions of dollars to eventually still close due to scale being too small. Many skilled workers lost their jobs but the "investment" in tax payer funds to subsidise these jobs was untenable. Migrating skill sets to alternative employment is challenging for sure. 
AI will be the next big disruption in the labour market globally with people unaware that their jobs could be done by algorithms. Humans are not good at understanding exponential trends.


----------



## David - Sydney (Dec 21, 2020)

dolina said:


> 2020 will be a record worst year for the global digital still camera market. Would not be surprised when 2021 comes about that smaller brands will either file for bankruptcy or be bought out by Canon or Sony.


Bankruptcy I can understand. 
Not sure why Canon or Sony would buy them though. Are there product niches that Canon or Sony don't currently cover that would be attractive? Manufacturing capacity wouldn't be an issue in a declining market
Medium format maybe? I don't know how fast that market is declining - if at all.


----------



## privatebydesign (Dec 21, 2020)

David - Sydney said:


> Bankruptcy I can understand.
> Not sure why Canon or Sony would buy them though. Are there product niches that Canon or Sony don't currently cover that would be attractive? Manufacturing capacity wouldn't be an issue in a declining market
> Medium format maybe? I don't know how fast that market is declining - if at all.


The only reason Sony or Canon would buy one of the smaller camera manufacturers is patents.


----------



## Deleted member 381342 (Dec 21, 2020)

David - Sydney said:


> Bankruptcy I can understand.
> Not sure why Canon or Sony would buy them though. Are there product niches that Canon or Sony don't currently cover that would be attractive? Manufacturing capacity wouldn't be an issue in a declining market
> Medium format maybe? I don't know how fast that market is declining - if at all.



If Sony bought Nikon it would be to turn them into a in-house lens brand. Nikon could abandon bodies and just sell lenses. Though it wouldn't change their fortunes as Sony would be a very distant second to Canon.


----------



## GMCPhotographics (Dec 21, 2020)

dolina said:


> How many months has the R5 sensor been out?
> 
> How many years has Sony's mirrorless image sensors been the tech leader?
> 
> Nikon uses in-house image sensors and Sony sensors when economically applicable.


How are you defining tech leader? Ohh....you mean dominance by iso invariance / DR...that old chestnut that helped Nikon and Sony sell way more DSLR's / Sensor than Canon.....NOT! 
Back in the early days of Nikon DSLR's, they invested all their R&D in CCD based sensors. That was a huge mistake, Can had a the clear advantage for a long time with their CMOS based sensors. It's only in recent years that Sony's R&D have provided one clear advantage of their sensors over Canon...and that's the Iso Invariance / DR specification. On all other metrics they are either worse or equal. 
Canon have put more 5DIII sensors into the hands of professional photographers than all the other DSLR's put together. That's a massive metric. The 5DIII is the most successful and popular professional camera (not just digital) in history of cameras by quite some margin.


----------



## docsmith (Dec 21, 2020)

So, what fluttered through my mind was if Canon would need to follow suit in order to remain cost competitive. But even looking up a few numbers I am reminded what vastly different companies these are:

Nikon: ~700 Billion yen in revenue (FY2019); ~26k employees (2016 number from wikipedia)
Canon: ~3.6 Trillion yen in revenue (2019); ~300k employees as estimated in 2017
I hope the restructuring works out for Nikon. I'd like to see them stick around.


----------



## ohm (Dec 21, 2020)

Codebunny said:


> It makes a lot of sense to produce outside of Japan and Nikon have with Z been moving to a almost just in time production. And the Nikon build quality has been really high with the Made in Thailand editions, all the Z glass is really top form.



Apart from rising profits, why does it make sense to lower the quality of work Japanese can do in their home country, lower the oversight in manufacturing, lower the potential of Japan as a camera making country, lower consumer trust in Japan, and more? I get that Nikon are suffering, but this thing, where you just send all work abroad, hurts everyone at home and is a massive reason all first world countries are becoming the same service desk counter for the world.


----------



## ohm (Dec 21, 2020)

Codebunny said:


> They aren't closing the Japanese factory and already produce some of their biggest hits our of the Thailand one. Also this isn't like they are outsourcing; they own the factory in Thailand. It likely has better connections for parts too as they'll be hundred factories around it. Rather than needing to wait a month for screws to come into Japan from China.



Imagine being so dependent on a foreign country that without them you don't have screws or medicine. This is ridiculous.


----------



## Deleted member 381342 (Dec 21, 2020)

ohm said:


> Imagine being so dependent on a foreign country that without them you don't have screws or medicine. This is ridiculous.


This is how the world works just now. And the screw example comes from Apple trying to produce the MacPro in the USA. It isn’t just about your factory, it is all the parts you need from to make something and in the USA, EU, and Japan you just can’t produce some products as there aren’t the suppliers even on the same continent as you. Cricky look at even baby products, those manufactured in the EU now have to use silicone as they don’t have direct supplies of latex rubber. Or Apple with their screws. Or any number of products.
When I was living in Thailand for a bit there where so many factories for everything from glue to string and any fabric or rubber we needed.
The factory producing a camera might be a profitable thing, but a factory producing screws, wires, even copper might not be.


----------



## Deleted member 381342 (Dec 21, 2020)

ohm said:


> Apart from rising profits, why does it make sense to lower the quality of work Japanese can do in their home country, lower the oversight in manufacturing, lower the potential of Japan as a camera making country, lower consumer trust in Japan, and more? I get that Nikon are suffering, but this thing, where you just send all work abroad, hurts everyone at home and is a massive reason all first world countries are becoming the same service desk counter for the world.



The Nikon D850 is considered by many as the best DSLR made and it is very robust and well built. It is also made in Thailand. My Nikon Z glass are all fantastic build quality with no sample variance and these are made in China and Thailand. The country something is made has no impact on quality unless it is a car made in the USA in which case you don’t want to buy something that can’t turn a corner and will fall apart if you so much as look at it at the wrong angle.


----------



## Maximilian (Dec 21, 2020)

I wonder how long it will take until Canon is doing the same move. 

And I wonder if this is a sign, that - say within 2 years - we won't see Nikon as an independent company anymore.


----------



## Maximilian (Dec 21, 2020)

s66 said:


> Actually "Made in Germany" was forced onto the Germans as a warning initially. The quality of their work changed it from a warning into a label of pride and as such of quality, craftmanship etc.
> See more here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_Germany


To get it (_edit: ) even_ more precise:
If you take a closer look at the much longer and much more detailed version of this article in the German version








Made in Germany – Wikipedia







de.wikipedia.org




you might recognize the phraze "vermeintlich minderwertiger Qualität" = "allegedly inferior quality"
Whilst all that took place in the second half of the 19th century it was at the same time (1862) during the world exhibition in London when jury member Sir Joseph Whitworth rated some German machine builders as "very good indeed". So more about beeing alleged than beeing fact.

So all of that was about protectionism. Something that reminds me of somebody that was voted out of office lately


----------



## jam05 (Dec 21, 2020)

dolina said:


> Camera industry has been in decline for nearly a decade. Coincidentally the iPhone came out followed by Android smartphones.
> 
> Unlike Canon and Nikon, Sony saw the writings on the wall and put their efforts into being the image sensor of the top 50% of all smartphones sold. That's why their mirrorless cameras have superior tech as compared to Canon or Nikon.
> 
> ...


----------



## jam05 (Dec 21, 2020)

"Unlike Canon and Nikon".....
Canon is diversified. A giant in many industries. 98% of all smartphones on the planet have OLEDs manufactured with Canon's latest nextgen CVD equipment purchased by Samsung. Samsung manufactures the largest share of new OLEDs with Canon equipment. So don't put the industry leader Canon in the boat as Nikon. Canon produces printers, office machines, medical equipment, satelites, network systems etc. The same for Fuji. Sony cameras don't have "superior" tech as far as harware is concerned. They write nice software coding, but that's about it. They still need to do some better ergonomic designing. Sony also went and hired Nikon's lens designer because they were behind in the lens department. Sony had a 5 year lead in mirrorless cameras and in one year Canon has walked them down and put Sony in it's rear view mirror. Anyone can take a look onto the field in any sporting venue and see mostly what brands? Exactly. That landscape hasn't changed, despite what internet trolls think and say. You can maybe count Sony cameras on one hand. Mostly broadcast cameras. As far as Sony ever catching up to Canon's overwhelming market share in cameras, you can kiss that dream good bye. Canon has widened it's lead over Sony.


----------



## Atlasman (Dec 21, 2020)

Joules said:


> While at times it may feel satisfying to see Canon dominating just to balance out the '******* trolls', this sounds like bad news for customers and the industry as a whole. It is not a good thing for anybody to see competitors struggle.


The struggle is of their own making—mostly from complacency and lack of vision. But it is bad news for the Nikon brand. I hope their move brings renewed prosperity.


----------



## AlanF (Dec 21, 2020)

Nikon can still make lenses. The resolution of their Z 50mm f/1.2 is incredible, as reported by ePhotozine today https://www.ephotozine.com/article/nikon-nikkor-z-50mm-f-1-2-s-review-35177/performance


----------



## melgross (Dec 21, 2020)

This certainly follows Nikon’s statements during the quarterly reports now going back several years, that Nikon will do everything it can to “maintain profits”. Unfortunately, that attitude isn’t what’s needed to maintain marketshare or technological leadership.


----------



## StoicalEtcher (Dec 21, 2020)

HMC11 said:


> ...follows an economic model that lawfully requires corporations to make money for shareholders.


Companies are not required by law to make profits - it is more that their shareholders wish them to make profits, so that the company is able to remain in business for a longer time and generate a return for shareholders on their investments during that time.

A company can choose not to do this - but in most cases, most investors will not wish to invest in you, and that limits access to capital with which grow the business.

Nikon moving production is unfortunate for those skilled labourers in Japan, but is a consequence of rising wages and payroll costs in one geography as compared to another, and unless you wish to sell expensive, niche, products (Leica anyone....) is probably inevitable until wages globally have equalised (if they ever will).


----------



## FramerMCB (Dec 21, 2020)

HMC11 said:


> It's always a sad affair for the local population that is affected when manufacturing gets moved overseas as there would be a loss of jobs for those in the sectors concerned. Even if 'replacement' manufacturing can somehow emerge (which is not necessarily the case), it would be a different group of workers who benefit. It's true that such offshoring makes financial sense for the company involves, but it follows an economic model that lawfully requires corporations to make money for shareholders. Whatever practices that can gain a financial advantage legally, even if ethically questionable, would be pursued eventually by someone willing to strive towards greater profits regardless of social costs.
> 
> This move by Nikon could potentially mean more competitive pricing, so it would be 'great' for photographers etc. However, as with most competition, it would likely end with with only a few players left through mergers and/or buyouts. When that happens, the monopolistic power of the remaining players would mean much higher prices for consumers. We'd better enjoy it while it lasts.


Excellent points but we also need to remember that with a shrinking market (less demand) even if there are only a few players left, they still need to be mindful that their prices can only be what the 'market will bear'...


----------



## Del Paso (Dec 21, 2020)

jam05 said:


> "Unlike Canon and Nikon".....
> Canon is diversified. A giant in many industries. 98% of all smartphones on the planet have OLEDs manufactured with Canon's latest nextgen CVD equipment purchased by Samsung. Samsung manufactures the largest share of new OLEDs with Canon equipment. So don't put the industry leader Canon in the boat as Nikon. Canon produces printers, office machines, medical equipment, satelites, network systems etc. The same for Fuji. Sony cameras don't have "superior" tech as far as harware is concerned. They write nice software coding, but that's about it. They still need to do some better ergonomic designing. Sony also went and hired Nikon's lens designer because they were behind in the lens department. Sony had a 5 year lead in mirrorless cameras and in one year Canon has walked them down and put Sony in it's rear view mirror. Anyone can take a look onto the field in any sporting venue and see mostly what brands? Exactly. That landscape hasn't changed, despite what internet trolls think and say. You can maybe count Sony cameras on one hand. Mostly broadcast cameras. As far as Sony ever catching up to Canon's overwhelming market share in cameras, you can kiss that dream good bye. Canon has widened it's lead over Sony.


1+


----------



## tmroper (Dec 21, 2020)

Mt Spokane Photography said:


> One of the likely big reasons for leaving Japan is the inability to hire workers. Its a huge problem for Japanese businesses.
> 
> Worker shortage in Japan to hit 6.4m by 2030, survey finds - Nikkei Asia


This. Japan has an aging, declining population. Combine that with their comparatively low productivity, and of course Sony has to look elsewhere to sustain their growth.


----------



## Del Paso (Dec 21, 2020)

"Made in ..." has more to do with psychology than with reality.
Made in USA still means high quality (often deserved), in many countries, even for cars.
Made in Germany can stand for highest quality, but also for the worst crap (yes, I' m thinking of some cars ).
Made in Japan, think back of the seventies, maybe even eighties, when it stood for cheap products, and was sometimes kind of an insult in Europe, at least.
What should we say about Korea (South, not the one the POTUS is "in love" with) ? Korean cars were considered garbage , a few years ago. And now ???
So, I don't care where Nikons are produced, what matters, only matters, is how good they are.
And yet (shall I say it ?), when I bought my Japanese car, I was pleased reading the "Made in Japan" sign on it ...


----------



## melgross (Dec 21, 2020)

dolina said:


> How many months has the R5 sensor been out?
> 
> How many years has Sony's mirrorless image sensors been the tech leader?
> 
> Nikon uses in-house image sensors and Sony sensors when economically applicable.


No, Nikon uses slightly modified Sony sensors. They don’t do complete sensor design in-house. Sony allows Nikon to make minor changes for its own cameras, but that’s about it.


----------



## Ozarker (Dec 21, 2020)

Bert63 said:


> I’m probably wrong (usually am) but if Japan is willing to go to this extreme Nikon might be in worse financial trouble than I imagined.
> 
> For Japan to send jobs and manufacturing offshore has got to be a hit to national pride.
> 
> Not like the US where we’d sell our little brother to save a buck or two.


We? Aren’t you confusing private companies in free countries and semi-free markets with state owned enterprises? Not the same. Far as I know, the government of Japan doesn’t own Nikon, just like the USA doesn’t own Ford. Japan has made cars here in the USA for decades. Can’t see how this could possibly be a National Pride thing. What would McDonalds think?  Besides, you seem to assume Japanese companies don’t send jobs off shore? Or have parts made in China? Because they are Japanese? This ain’t 1936.


----------



## s66 (Dec 21, 2020)

Maximilian said:


> To get it more precise:
> If you take a closer look at the much longer and much more detailed version of this article in the German version
> 
> 
> ...


LOL, we are saying the same thing. Note: I never said what the warning was about. I did that intentionally to avoid the can of worms that is current politics.
FWIW: I do read German reasonably well, and I did check the German sources first, but opted for the English wikipedia as a pointer to other sources as this is after all an English speaking forum.


----------



## David - Sydney (Dec 22, 2020)

ohm said:


> Imagine being so dependent on a foreign country that without them you don't have screws or medicine. This is ridiculous.


Global interdependence and trade is unavoidable these days. No country can be completely self-sufficient. Countries specialise in comparative advantage to the extent that there is free trade. 
The UN and WTO etc are meant to assist peace and manage trade disputes for instance. Bi-lateral and multi-lateral trade agreements are meant to reduce protectionism product by product over time. Recent history has been more problematic as we all well know

Thailand is an interesting choice. Never colonised, major ally of the US for the last 70 years, founding member of ASEAN, 2nd largest economy in South Asia and #20 country by PPP. They are major hub for car manufacturing as well. 
Domestic politics is a bit weird though flipping between democracy and militiary rule and back for over 40 years now.


----------



## HarryFilm (Dec 22, 2020)

dolina said:


> Camera industry has been in decline for nearly a decade. Coincidentally the iPhone came out followed by Android smartphones.
> 
> Unlike Canon and Nikon, Sony saw the writings on the wall and put their efforts into being the image sensor of the top 50% of all smartphones sold. That's why their mirrorless cameras have superior tech as compared to Canon or Nikon.
> 
> ...



---

I thought I'd let everyone know even CANADA is coming into cameras and lens production now!

DSLR and Mirrorless Camera Optical Grade Acrylic Lenses Now Being Made in Canada:






50 mm to 800 mm Fast all-Acrylic Super-Zoom Lens for Canon EF/EF-M, RF, Sony E-Mount and Fuji MF being beta-tested now!


HEADLINE: 50 mm to 800 mm Fast all-Acrylic Super-Zoom Lens for Canon EF/EF-M, RF, Sony E-Mount and Fuji MF being beta-tested now! YES! You heard that right! An under-the-radar Canadian Company based in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada is now now beta-testing in the wild as of December 2020...




www.canonrumors.com





I recently took a tour of the Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada Optical-grade Acrylic Lens and All-Aluminum Lens Barrel Machining factory and I was STUNNED at how much lens inventory they are building up for launch! I saw FIVE high end lenses that will be HALF the price and in some cases a FULL STOP FASTER than the competing Canon L-series or Sony G-series lenses! 

Too many companies are being waaaay too GREEDY by destroying their local manufacturing base putting way too many people out of work! Anyways, all good things must come to an end sooner or later!
At least there is now a Made in Canada solution for some users of high end lenses!

V


----------



## dilbert (Dec 22, 2020)

privatebydesign said:


> Yes it has been in decline for a decade, but it underwent unprecedented growth before that. In reality the market is returning to historical norms.



Graphs are always helpful to understand trends..









2016 CIPA data shows compact digital camera sales lower than ever


Last month, the Camera & Imaging Products Association (CIPA) released its 2016 report detailing yearly trends in camera shipments. Using that data, photographer Sven Skafisk has created a graph that vividly shows the impact of smartphone sales. Read more




www.dpreview.com


----------



## Maximilian (Dec 22, 2020)

s66 said:


> LOL, we are saying the same thing. Note: I never said what the warning was about. I did that intentionally to avoid the can of worms that is current politics.
> FWIW: I do read German reasonably well, and I did check the German sources first, but opted for the English wikipedia as a pointer to other sources as this is after all an English speaking forum.


I did fully understand your post right, that you were about to "defend" the label, too.
Thank you for doing so.  And also thank you for checking different sources - not so common these days.
I just wanted to point that out more prominent.
As I said:


Maximilian said:


> To get it (_edit: ) even_ more precise: ...


----------



## dolina (Dec 22, 2020)

HarryFilm said:


> ---
> 
> I thought I'd let everyone know even CANADA is coming into cameras and lens production now!
> 
> ...


Sometimes it isn't just labor cost. Does North America have enough skilled labor to fulfill demand? In places like China you can fill a football standium worth of industrial engineers. In the US they may have difficulty sourcing parts


----------



## dolina (Dec 22, 2020)

dilbert said:


> Graphs are always helpful to understand trends..
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That's 2016 data.

How about last years?


----------



## privatebydesign (Dec 22, 2020)

dolina said:


> That's 2016 data.
> 
> How about last years?


Or how about showing a graph that actually illustrates the last 20 years honestly?

This graph from CIPA showing camera ‘out the door’ volume that actually covers the last 20 years aptly demonstrates my point of the market returning to historical norms. In 1999 the camera market (not including phones) was 5.09 million units, in 2019 it was 15.22 million units, three times the number of 20 years ago. The camera market is not in trouble, it is no longer enjoying the boom period from 2002 -2016, but it is far from in trouble.


----------



## Ozarker (Dec 22, 2020)

privatebydesign said:


> Or how about showing a graph that actually illustrates the last 20 years honestly?
> 
> This graph from CIPA showing camera ‘out the door’ volume that actually covers the last 20 years aptly demonstrates my point of the market returning to historical norms. In 1999 the camera market (not including phones) was 5.09 million units, in 2019 it was 15.22 million units, three times the number of 20 years ago. The camera market is not in trouble, it is no longer enjoying the boom period from 2002 -2016, but it is far from in trouble.
> 
> View attachment 194735


Yeah, but there’s also about 1.7 billion more people in the world 1999 vs 2020.  Nothing historically normal there in such a stat. Population increased greatly, ILC sales have not kept the “norm” at all. The market is far below the “historical norm”. I guess we could go back to 1965? See what was “normal “ back then? Who decided what the historical norm is? What were car sales in 1920 vs 2020? When will we return to the “historical norm” of sales in 1920? Kind of a silly line of logic. Why did you choose 1999? Why not 1970?


----------



## 20Dave (Dec 22, 2020)

privatebydesign said:


> This graph from CIPA showing camera ‘out the door’ volume that actually covers the last 20 years aptly demonstrates my point of the market returning to historical norms.



Just curious, is that ILC totals (digital + film) or just digital?


----------



## privatebydesign (Dec 22, 2020)

20Dave said:


> Just curious, is that ILC totals (digital + film) or just digital?


It says it is digital but I believe that is a mistake because the total camera sales in the early years align with combined film and digital camera sales.


----------



## privatebydesign (Dec 22, 2020)

CanonFanBoy said:


> Yeah, but there’s also about 1.7 billion more people in the world 1999 vs 2020.  Nothing historically normal there in such a stat. Population increased greatly, ILC sales have not kept the “norm” at all. The market is far below the “historical norm”. I guess we could go back to 1965? See what was “normal “ back then? Who decided what the historical norm is? What were car sales in 1920 vs 2020?


And as we know wealth inequality means most of those additional population numbers are too poor to buy food let alone be in the market for a new camera.

But look again, 2019 has over three times the sales of 1999, the world population in 1999 was 6,064,239,055 three times that is 18,000,000,000, yet there are currently only 7,713,468,100, any way you look at it the camera sales numbers are not bad.

The reason I used 20 years was because the original comment was based on the last ten years data, I merely pointed out that that is a particularly distorted view of a market that didn’t take into account the unprecedented grow in the ten years preceding that.


----------



## Ozarker (Dec 22, 2020)

privatebydesign said:


> And as we know wealth inequality means most of those additional population numbers are too poor to buy food let alone be in the market for a new camera.
> 
> But look again, 2019 has over three times the sales of 1999, the world population in 1999 was 6,064,239,055 three times that is 18,000,000,000, yet there are currently only 7,713,468,100, any way you look at it the camera sales numbers are not bad.
> 
> The reason I used 20 years was because the original comment was based on the last ten years data, I merely pointed out that that is a particularly distorted view of a market.


Camera sales in 2010 were 121 million units. 15 million in 2020? Sales aren’t bad? What distorted view? Sales are down near 90% in ten years. Sales in 1999 are not relevant. Sales in 1980 aren’t either. Are you really going to argue that because sales are 3x what they were 20 years ago that sales are fine after falling 90% off peak in just 10 years?


----------



## privatebydesign (Dec 22, 2020)

CanonFanBoy said:


> Camera sales in 2010 were 121 million units. 15 million in 2020? Sales aren’t bad? What distorted view? Sales are down near 90% in ten years. Sales in 1999 are not relevant. Sales in 1980 aren’t either. Are you really going to argue that because sales are 3x what they were 20 years ago that sales are fine after falling 90% off peak in just 10 years?


Yes.

It isn’t difficult, Canon don’t hang their corporate survival on this years sales or next years sales, they have five and ten year plans at minimum. The camera market is going through unprecedented contraction, but *only after* going through unprecedented growth. Only a fool would say the height of the boom is the point at which you should base a market particularly when you consider the quantum shift to digital and the generally positive financial situation for many. Now cameras are not doubling in capability every two years and the economy is not in a boom situation.

However, camera sales per capita are still in a historically positive position, new models are coming out that push capabilities and refinement, and, a very important point, the cameras that are sold now average much higher values than the P&S and entry level DSLR sales numbers that you refer back to. Do Canon make more money selling ten Rebel XSi’s or one R5?

No, picking on a single unrepresentative short term figure to try to explain a complicated market shift is disingenuous at best. Start to fill in some of the back story and the situation is nothing like the simplistic 90% drop in sales number would initially imply.


----------



## Ozarker (Dec 23, 2020)

privatebydesign said:


> Yes.
> 
> It isn’t difficult, Canon don’t hang their corporate survival on this years sales or next years sales, they have five and ten year plans at minimum. The camera market is going through unprecedented contraction, but *only after* going through unprecedented growth. Only a fool would say the height of the boom is the point at which you should base a market particularly when you consider the quantum shift to digital and the generally positive financial situation for many. Now cameras are not doubling in capability every two years and the economy is not in a boom situation.
> 
> ...


Well, I'll have to disagree. When I think of all the added production capacity, added employees, etc., and then the contracted capacity and the laid off employees... sales ain't fine for them. This hasn't to do with Canon smartly planning for a boom then bust. This has to do with the whole market landscape changing. So, we'll just agree to disagree.  20 years is not a short term figure to try and explain the disaster that has taken this whole industry by the short hairs.  Heck, 20 years is nearly 1/3 of my lifetime. This ain't geology. Canon, Nikon, Olympus, Pentax, Sony, etc. never planned on, nor did they foresee, this collapse. So, please answer? Does Canon make more selling 10 of the 80D or 1 of the R5? Neither you nor I have any earthly idea about that. Don't know why you'd even mention the XSi today.


----------



## ISv (Dec 23, 2020)

privatebydesign said:


> Or how about showing a graph that actually illustrates the last 20 years honestly?
> 
> This graph from CIPA showing camera ‘out the door’ volume that actually covers the last 20 years aptly demonstrates my point of the market returning to historical norms. In 1999 the camera market (not including phones) was 5.09 million units, in 2019 it was 15.22 million units, three times the number of 20 years ago. The camera market is not in trouble, it is no longer enjoying the boom period from 2002 -2016, but it is far from in trouble.
> 
> View attachment 194735


With all due respect - look at the trend: 1999 is not the, let's say 1940! If the camera production is simply going to the "historic levels", what "historic levels" do you mean?! Let's put it simply: people are getting more and more lazy/spoiled: "Why I have to learn something when there are gadgets that will do it for me". Or even worst: "For my needs it's enough - I don't need perfection". Before the cellphones there wasn't alternative - if you want photos for memory (no matter your grandma or your baby) you buy camera. Not now!


----------



## privatebydesign (Dec 23, 2020)

CanonFanBoy said:


> Well, I'll have to disagree. When I think of all the added production capacity, added employees, etc., and then the contracted capacity and the laid off employees... sales ain't fine for them. This hasn't to do with Canon smartly planning for a boom then bust. This has to do with the whole market landscape changing. So, we'll just agree to disagree.  20 years is not a short term figure to try and explain the disaster that has taken this whole industry by the short hairs.  Heck, 20 years is nearly 1/3 of my lifetime. This ain't geology. Canon, Nikon, Olympus, Pentax, Sony, etc. never planned on, nor did they foresee, this collapse. So, please answer? Does Canon make more selling 10 of the 80D or 1 of the R5? Neither you nor I have any earthly idea about that. Don't know why you'd even mention the XSi today.


I never suggested sales were fine for them, I suggested sales were fine for the consumer, that is, the camera market is still profitable and there are well established big players who can withstand the ups and downs of a very dynamic generation of sales.

Yes, the whole market landscape changed, TWICE, looking at the second without considering the first is ridiculous considering they are two sides of the same wave.

It isn't a case of agreeing or disagreeing, it is a case of putting the ten your downturn in the perspective of the ten year upturn that directly preceded it. Nobody but a fool would anticipate long term sales of 121 million units per year, digital cameras were a film camera disruptive technology, heck it laid Kodak to rest and they invented the digital camera! In the same way cameras in phones are a disruptive technology to many entry and mid level cameras.

I would expect Canon, and to a certain extent the others, did anticipate this collapse, you don't diversify to the extent they have on a whim or quickly. 

Of course it is geology in human lifetime terms, Canon are babies at 80, but look at the number of Japanese companies in the list of oldest companies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_companies heck 1-5 are all Japanese and 10 Japanese companies are over 1,000 years old.

I mention the XSi because in that heyday of 121 million unit of sales the vast majority of those sales were P&S's and Rebels/XS's/XSi"s. Canon don't sell $15,000 C line cameras back then, nor enthusiast orientated $4,000 bodies with $2,500 lenses.

All I was trying to do was point out that only looking at the downside curve of a wave gives a misleading picture of an industry, that was it. I never said the reduction was a good thing, nor that fit didn't affect some people, merely that it was not the entire picture and if you look at current sales numbers over time the industry is not on its knees or even close to it. If you still believe only looking at that set of sales numbers in isolation gives you any kind of insight into where the industry is now or is going in the future then you are better than anybody else!


----------



## YuengLinger (Dec 23, 2020)

In 2000 we were still using film, which, for many, was a PITA. Go on vacation, stash the rolls until getting home? Or print them and have more stuff to carry back? Plus waiting for the lab, and remember how many crappy prints with whacky colors came out of drugstores and supermarkets? Some good, some acceptable, some awful.

Then the magic of digital! Instant fun, and each generation of cameras came fast and with better IQ. THAT was the surge. But as phones came in, and their IQ kept getting better, and social media connectivity kept getting easier, interest in carrying "extra" gadgets that needed batteries, and needed to be connected with wires began to be redundant. Not seem redundant, actually redundant.

I hope calling people "lazy/spoiled" was tongue in cheek. If Apple and Samsung and others sell a faster, easier way to grab memories and share them instantly, why is there some kind of character flaw associated with using the new way? Why do people have to be serious about photography to enjoy taking photos in front of Cheesecake Factory or the Eifel Tower? The whole reason digital surged for a decade was because it offered "easier." Sure, many new photographers developed a passion during those years of changing over to digital and seeing the cameras improve dramatically, but point and shoots were a gateway for them only. For most consumers, point and shoots were just the easiest way to get snapshots. Period.

So people who thought film sucked saw a way to take photos without the hassle. And then smartphone cameras became good enough, and sharing the photos became much easier too. So, surge, decline, here we are, still ahead of film, but without promise of significant growth in the near future.

And while there are still a few good photos in newspapers, who is reading newspapers? (Have you looked at your local newspaper lately? No content!) And how long does anybody pause to appreciate photojournalism when scanning headlines online? (Except maybe for "serious" photographers!)

So if Canon no longer has volume, it has to charge more per unit-sold to survive, to avoid contracting to nothing. I certainly don't like the prices of Rf lenses! But I don't think we are paying only for individual lenses, but support, R&D, and, without any exaggeration intended, the year to year survival of Canon as we know it, not just another licensed brand name being used in Shenzhen.*

*But I ain't never paying $1100 for a Speedlight!


----------



## dilbert (Dec 23, 2020)

With lower sales numbers, it'll be interesting to see if the new product cycle slows down. EOS 50 to EOS 30 was 5 years. 5-6 years was the normal product lifetime.


----------



## Ozarker (Dec 23, 2020)

YuengLinger said:


> In 2000 we were still using film, which, for many, was a PITA. Go on vacation, stash the rolls until getting home? Or print them and have more stuff to carry back? Plus waiting for the lab, and remember how many crappy prints with whacky colors came out of drugstores and supermarkets? Some good, some acceptable, some awful.
> 
> Then the magic of digital! Instant fun, and each generation of cameras came fast and with better IQ. THAT was the surge. But as phones came in, and their IQ kept getting better, and social media connectivity kept getting easier, interest in carrying "extra" gadgets that needed batteries, and needed to be connected with wires began to be redundant. Not seem redundant, actually redundant.
> 
> ...


Damn straight on that speedlite.


----------



## HarryFilm (Dec 23, 2020)

dolina said:


> Sometimes it isn't just labor cost. Does North America have enough skilled labor to fulfill demand? In places like China you can fill a football standium worth of industrial engineers. In the US they may have difficulty sourcing parts



===

Unfortunately, what I saw in the Vancouver, Canada Acrylic lens factory was almost completely automated with flexible robotic systems making the actual optical grade Acrylic from petro-chemical sources, then molding and pressing the lens elements by machine, then machining them to ultra high precision at micron-levels of variance and the aluminum lens barrels being auto-extruded, annealed and anodized all autonomously to micron-level tolerances, and the Quality Assurance being done autonomously by machine vision and interferometry. Even the packaging and on-site warehousing was mostly done by machine.

It looks like the future is MACHINE-BASED manufacturing with only a tiny few employees!

After testing the 50 mm to 800 mm super-Sports-Zoom, the f/1.0 35mm, the f/1.0 50mm, the f/1.0 85mm and the f/1.2 135 mm primes for a week in the wild, I found the image output quality and lens manufacturing quality was basically at Zeiss Otus lens levels which I did a direct comparison against.

Since almost no humans were involved during the manufacturing process itself, output quality was CONSISTENTLY SUPERB across many samples of lenses with basically ALMOST NO VARIANCE among the same lens focal lengths even if made during a different time-period lens manufacturing batch.

This type of machine-controlled quality-assurance and automation pretty much spells DOOM for the human workforce. I don't have ANY answers as to what we humans are to do in the future for basic money earning power BUT I can tell you that inexpensive ultra-high quality All-Acrylic lenses ARE coming to anyone who wants them!

---

I should also note that this Vancouver, Canada factory will be producing Combined Stills/Video CAMERAS and Personal Super-Workstation Computers in this facility which is now FULLY Vertically Integrated needing no other outside parts or suppliers OTHER THAN than suppliers of raw petro-chemical, raw aluminum, raw titanium, Si/Ga/As and basic sheet paper/cardboard products. 

So much automation was put into this factory that it is basically fully lights-out, needing almost NO multi-human supervision or intervention. 

V


----------



## dolina (Dec 23, 2020)

privatebydesign said:


> This graph from CIPA showing camera ‘out the door’ volume that actually covers the last 20 years aptly demonstrates my point of the market returning to historical norms. In 1999 the camera market (not including phones) was 5.09 million units, in 2019 it was 15.22 million units, three times the number of 20 years ago. The camera market is not in trouble, it is no longer enjoying the boom period from 2002 -2016, but it is far from in trouble.
> 
> View attachment 194735



World population

1999 was 6.036 billion
2020 is 7.8 billion
Smartphone initial release

2007 iPhone
2008 Android
2019 Worldwide shipments

15.22 *m*illion CIPA-member cameras
198.1 *m*illion iPhones
1.1686 *b*illion Androids
Yup... smartphones did _not_ impact sales of digital still cameras (DSC). /s

Your graph's upward ascent paused in 2008, dipped in 2009 and bounced back in 2010.

2011-onwards it nose dived.

2017 was the year that more than 1 rear cameras with a wide, standard or tele lens started becoming the norm.

Would not be surprised if ultra wide, wide, standard, tele and super tele lenses would come out within the next 5 years.

Thus negating super zooms and ultra wide point & shoots.

For 2020 I would be very surprised if shipments breached 9 million DSC relative to 2019's 15.22 million.

10 out of 12 months of 2020 had less than 7 million DSC shipped globally. Assuming a very optimistic 80% of Nov-Dec 2019 DSC shipped in the last 2 months of 2020 would only be less than 2 million.

Will 2030 have the DSC back to shipping 5 million SDC like in 1999? Smartphones had zero involvement!

Be aware that sales people tend to encourage dealers to order more than they could possibly sell. Manufacturers may tolerate delayed accounts receivables from their dealers. Would not be surprised if dealers have more than normal number of inventory on hand with the option to return with little to no penalty. Manufacturers have an incentive to tolerate to do a bit of window dressing for end of year.

So shipments is not that good an indicator. Would be better to show settled accounts receivable.

Point & shoots dried up and went premium with larger image sensors than an smartphone or specialized with super zooms and underwater features. Would not be surprised that point & shoot numbers for 2019 is about 20% of what it was at its peak.

ILCs like SLRs and mirrorless are somewhat less impacted but outside of (a) working photographers, (b) first time ILC buyers that have at most 2 lenses and (c) well funded pensioners no one is upgrading to every new Mark 2, 3 or 4 upgrade. People tend to keep their cameras until they fall apart then evaluate if they should buy a camera that's bigger than their smartphone. Would not be surprised that point & shoot numbers for 2019 is about 20% of what it was at its peak.

1 out of 3 users has their carrier's "push" upgrades to them when their contract ends in 2-3 years. So people get a new "camera" every 2-3 years. Every new replacement smartphone has a better camera which does not need a PC to get involved to download, post process and share.

If my carrier allowed me to buy a R5 on a 2 year contract I'd probably go for one at $162.50/month + $11/month service.

So did smartphone put an end on the bull run of worldwide shipments of cameras? Probably _not_. /s

Best camera you can ever own is the one with you always. For the past decade it was either a iPhone or Android.


----------



## dolina (Dec 23, 2020)

HarryFilm said:


> ===
> 
> Unfortunately, what I saw in the Vancouver, Canada Acrylic lens factory was almost completely automated with flexible robotic systems making the actual optical grade Acrylic from petro-chemical sources, then molding and pressing the lens elements by machine, then machining them to ultra high precision at micron-levels of variance and the aluminum lens barrels being auto-extruded, annealed and anodized all autonomously to micron-level tolerances, and the Quality Assurance being done autonomously by machine vision and interferometry. Even the packaging and on-site warehousing was mostly done by machine.
> 
> ...


I'm glad manufacturing is back in rich nations. But what you describe is not what local labor meant by bringing back manufacturing to their province/state


----------



## expatinasia (Dec 26, 2020)

dolina said:


> I expect Canon, Sony and other brands to relocate their production lines to South East Asia. Hopefully to the Philippines like Pentax in Cebu.



Cebu would be a very, very cool place to live and work. Would have to watch the weight though. All those delicious mangoes and lechon! Where do I apply?!!


----------



## dolina (Dec 27, 2020)

Here's entreprenuer magazine saying the same thing









Smartphones Have Officially Crushed Digital Cameras


The drop off in camera sales in the last decade is precipitous.




www.entrepreneur.com


----------



## privatebydesign (Dec 27, 2020)

And nothing I said disagreed with any of it. Only an idiot would argue that phones didn’t destroy the P&S market that didn’t exist in any profitable way before the production figures I referenced.

None of that contradicts my points. There are three times as many cameras shipped now as there were 20 years ago, the value of those cameras is much higher, and the world population has only increased 25% in the same time.

As for incentivizing stock and not relying on shipped units as a reliable figure, piffle. If the entire industry does the same and the same figure is used for comparisons any distortions are equalized. Further, the entire point of shipped units is the fact that eventually all those units are sold, by whatever circuitous route, and even if it isn’t that calendar year again the errors normalize each year.


----------



## justaCanonuser (Dec 29, 2020)

Canon Rumors Guy said:


> Continue reading...


No good news for Nikon users, since Nikon's quality standards are already quite below Canon's - at least according to our experience. We have two extended gears from Canon and Nikon, shoot them side by side (mostly wildlife in rugged environments), and had substantially more failures and repairs with Nikon DSLRs and lenses than with Canon's: 3 Nikon cameras with massive failures and a broken AF drive of a Nikkor tele lens vs only one broken thumb wheel of the original 7D. Can't be bad luck only, I guess. Semipro Nikons are e.g. much more prone to rain, we found out the hard way, Canon's weather sealings overall are much better.


----------



## AlanF (Dec 29, 2020)

justaCanonuser said:


> No good news for Nikon users, since Nikon's quality standards are already quite below Canon's - at least according to our experience. We have two extended gears from Canon and Nikon, shoot them side by side (mostly wildlife in rugged environments), and had substantially more failures and repairs with Nikon DSLRs and lenses than with Canon's: 3 Nikon cameras with massive failures and a broken AF drive of a Nikkor tele lens vs only one broken thumb wheel of the original 7D. Can't be bad luck only, I guess. Semipro Nikons are e.g. much more prone to rain, we found out the hard way, Canon's weather sealings overall are much better.


I usually take seriously people's direct personal experience, but urge caution about drawing general conclusions from comments in forum threads. Here is what Roger Cicala writes about lensrentals teardown of Nikon's mirrorless (not made in Japan):
https://www.lensrentals.com/blog/2018/10/teardown-of-the-nikon-z7-mirrorless-camera/
“This is not marketing department weather resistance. This is engineering department weather resistance. Anything that can be sealed has been sealed. I’m impressed, and I will say for future cut-and-paste blurbs: this is as robustly weather sealed a camera as we’ve ever disassembled.”
“I’m just here to say this is a damn well-built camera, the best built mirrorless full-frame camera we’ve taken apart."

I hope my R5 is as good.


----------



## privatebydesign (Dec 29, 2020)

AlanF said:


> I hope my R5 is as good.



Alan, I really like this guy, Morten Hilmer, and although he is a longtime Nikon user he has been trying out an R5. He isn’t a reviewer he just tries anything that he feels might give him more keepers and the gear to do that is secondary to technique and field craft. But his mentions of the gear at the end and the water and muck he gets on his R5 might make you feel good about your R5.


----------



## AlanF (Dec 29, 2020)

privatebydesign said:


> Alan, I really like this guy, Morten Hilmer, and although he is a longtime Nikon user he has been trying out an R5. He isn’t a reviewer he just tries anything that he feels might give him more keepers and the gear to do that is secondary to technique and field craft. But his mentions of the gear at the end and the water and muck he gets on his R5 might make you feel good about your R5.


Great! Roger gives the R5 a nice write up in his teardown. Companies sometimes pull out all of the stops, and Canon did it with the R5.


----------



## privatebydesign (Dec 29, 2020)

AlanF said:


> Great! Roger gives the R5 a nice write up in his teardown. Companies sometimes pull out all of the stops, and Canon did it with the R5.


Hope you like the video, it Is the kind of video that has made me come to the conclusion that the issues I have with MILC’s are down to me to overcome as the benefits really do out way them, and as you say it seems Canon pulled out the stops with the R5. I have decided to get one in the first quarter of next year and see how I get on with owning one rather than borrowing them.


----------



## AlanF (Dec 29, 2020)

privatebydesign said:


> Hope you like the video, it Is the kind of video that has made me come to the conclusion that the issues I have with MILC’s are down to me to overcome as the benefits really do out way them, and as you say it seems Canon pulled out the stops with the R5. I have decided to get one in the first quarter of next year and see how I get on with owning one rather than borrowing them.


Thanks so much for the heads up. What a really nice video, and the complete antithesis of Fro, TN etc from someone without an axe to grind and taking beautiful photos. What field craft too, a real delight.

In the end, it's the eyeAF that's the key feature.


----------



## justaCanonuser (Dec 29, 2020)

AlanF said:


> I usually take seriously people's direct personal experience, but urge caution about drawing general conclusions from comments in forum threads. Here is what Roger Cicala writes about lensrentals teardown of Nikon's mirrorless (not made in Japan):
> https://www.lensrentals.com/blog/2018/10/teardown-of-the-nikon-z7-mirrorless-camera/
> “This is not marketing department weather resistance. This is engineering department weather resistance. Anything that can be sealed has been sealed. I’m impressed, and I will say for future cut-and-paste blurbs: this is as robustly weather sealed a camera as we’ve ever disassembled.”
> “I’m just here to say this is a damn well-built camera, the best built mirrorless full-frame camera we’ve taken apart."
> ...


Our experience is restricted to Nikon DSLRs: D300, D300S, D700, and D500. The D500 so far works without flaws, and it is indeed made in Thailand. But we did not yet take it to really rugged environments. I do hope of course, that Nikon can improve their quality onto the level they had in the 1960s-90s - we have a collection of e.g. FM-2's that never let us down, even not in Siberian winter. The D300 was highly praised and needed an exchange of the mirror box at only 80.000 actuations, my old from the same time 7D still works, an artist friend uses it. Plus, all symbols were wiped off most used D300's buttons after a few years, not with the 7D (not an issue but fits to its lower quality). The D300S then lost a part of button functions after a tour in heavy rain, despite my wife tried to protect it much more as I did with my 5D3. I didn't care much about the water, and the 5D3 didn't have any failures... The D300S never recovered completely, even after years. I can extend this list, but this would be as boring as this experience is annoying for us.

Btw I watch a wildlife German documentary just at the moment. There they showed a Canon 5D3 (I guess) with an EF 24-70mm that was stolen from another German photographer three months before, by a lion, the photographer used it remotely. Now the wildlife filmers found it by accident, lying on lens' front element in the dirt, overcast with dust and dirty. They started the camera - and it worked! They could see that first the lion, later an elephant played with it and hit the release button. I am really no fanboy, but this story didn't surprise me. I had some severe accidents with my Canon gear, but it never stopped working. My oldest frequently used EF lens is a 25 years old EF 500mm F/4.5 which must have now done some Millions of shots. It is battered like an old weapon but works perfectly.


----------



## StoicalEtcher (Dec 29, 2020)

privatebydesign said:


> Alan, I really like this guy, Morten Hilmer, and although he is a longtime Nikon user he has been trying out an R5. He isn’t a reviewer he just tries anything that he feels might give him more keepers and the gear to do that is secondary to technique and field craft. But his mentions of the gear at the end and the water and muck he gets on his R5 might make you feel good about your R5.


Great video pbd - many thanks for posting the link. But now I need to see where I can find a ground pod like Morten's!


----------



## AlanF (Dec 29, 2020)

justaCanonuser said:


> Our experience is restricted to Nikon DSLRs: D300, D300S, D700, and D500. The D500 so far works without flaws, and it is indeed made in Thailand. But we did not yet take it to really rugged environments. I do hope of course, that Nikon can improve their quality onto the level they had in the 1960s-90s - we have a collection of e.g. FM-2's that never let us down, even not in Siberian winter. The D300 was highly praised and needed an exchange of the mirror box at only 80.000 actuations, my old from the same time 7D still works, an artist friend uses it. Plus, all symbols were wiped off most used D300's buttons after a few years, not with the 7D (not an issue but fits to its lower quality). The D300S then lost a part of button functions after a tour in heavy rain, despite my wife tried to protect it much more as I did with my 5D3. I didn't care much about the water, and the 5D3 didn't have any failures... The D300S never recovered completely, even after years. I can extend this list, but this would be as boring as this experience is annoying for us.
> 
> Btw I watch a wildlife German documentary just at the moment. There they showed a Canon 5D3 (I guess) with an EF 24-70mm that was stolen from another German photographer three months before, by a lion, the photographer used it remotely. Now the wildlife filmers found it by accident, lying on lens' front element in the dirt, overcast with dust and dirty. They started the camera - and it worked! They could see that first the lion, later an elephant played with it and hit the release button. I am really no fanboy, but this story didn't surprise me. I had some severe accidents with my Canon gear, but it never stopped working. My oldest frequently used EF lens is a 25 years old EF 500mm F/4.5 which must have now done some Millions of shots. It is battered like an old weapon but works perfectly.


I responded to your comment that: "Semipro Nikons are e.g. much more prone to rain, we found out the hard way, Canon's weather sealings overall are much better." with Roger Cicala's tear down of the Z7. As interesting anecdotes as they are, the performance of a 25 year old lens or a lion with a 5D3 are somewhat tangential, although they do emphasize Canon's high standards.


----------



## privatebydesign (Dec 29, 2020)

StoicalEtcher said:


> Great video pbd - many thanks for posting the link. But now I need to see where I can find a ground pod like Morten's!


Glad you liked it, there are some real gems on YouTube if you can cut through the utter garbage!

I thought he said he made the ground pod, nice idea and not difficult to replicate, you could even come up with a refinement or two like make the front two legs joined in an arc etc.


----------



## StoicalEtcher (Dec 30, 2020)

privatebydesign said:


> Glad you liked it, there are some real gems on YouTube if you can cut through the utter garbage!
> 
> I thought he said he made the ground pod, nice idea and not difficult to replicate, you could even come up with a refinement or two like make the front two legs joined in an arc etc.


Yes, he did say he made it - said they made 50 of them apparently, but he seemed quite adamant that he wasn't going to make any more!

Not too hard to replicate - as long as you have access to a pole bender and a welder - not things I tend to have lying around unfortunately. I busy googling sledge runners - but being in the UK, these aren't as common as they are in the States  

Thanks anyway.

Cheers, Stoical.


----------



## slclick (Jan 4, 2021)

privatebydesign said:


> Alan, I really like this guy, Morten Hilmer, and although he is a longtime Nikon user he has been trying out an R5. He isn’t a reviewer he just tries anything that he feels might give him more keepers and the gear to do that is secondary to technique and field craft. But his mentions of the gear at the end and the water and muck he gets on his R5 might make you feel good about your R5.


This is the type of message I wish more shooters would heed. Too much crutch on brands, GAS and charts. Thanks for sharing.


----------



## erader (Jan 4, 2021)

sony has become the new Nikon and Nikon is fighting for survival.


----------



## erader (Jan 4, 2021)

privatebydesign said:


> That is such a distorted view of the market.
> 
> Yes it has been in decline for a decade, but it underwent unprecedented growth before that. In reality the market is returning to historical norms.
> 
> ...



not only that it's largely BS


----------



## erader (Jan 4, 2021)

erader said:


> sony has become the new Nikon and Nikon is fighting for survival. I think anyone new to the market with no bias would either pick canon or sony these days.


----------

