# Canon thinks that the camera market decline has bottomed out, and targeted growth is coming



## Canon Rumors Guy (Aug 4, 2022)

> Canon has ammended their Q2 2022 financials with their thoughts about the future of the camera market. It’s one that we tend to agree with. The entry-level market formerly represented by the Powershot line and EOS Rebel line is essentially over for the obvious Smartphone reasons.
> A few years ago Canon did say that they see the future of the business to be in producing products to target specific types of users. Now Canon thinks that they will see growth in the prosumer and professional spaces. A Sony executive’s recent silly claim that Smartphones would surpass ILCs in performance within three years aside, Canon will continue to listen to customers and produce targeted products to meet their ever changing needs.
> Canon also says that they will continue to produce DSLRs as long as their is demand. I would not expect new DSLRs to be announced, but cameras like the Canon EOS-1D X Mark III will be a viable tool for years to come.
> Below is...



Continue reading...


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## EOS 4 Life (Aug 4, 2022)

Increasing capacity 50% sounds like a very positive outlook to me


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## DotCom Editor (Aug 4, 2022)

"targetted?"


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## Krispy (Aug 4, 2022)

Gimme the R1 and R/C300


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## mxwphoto (Aug 4, 2022)

EOS 4 Life said:


> Increasing capacity 50% sounds like a very positive outlook to me


You do realize they are talking about lithography equipment here, not consumer cameras. Great for Canon on this business segment, but actually not as good for us as that means camera business will make up less of a percentage of their business and thus be less important to the company as a whole. Typically also means less funding and emphasis as well.


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## unfocused (Aug 4, 2022)

Hard to take a post seriously when the writer can’t spell targeted and doesn’t know the difference between there and their.


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## HMC11 (Aug 5, 2022)

Given that the anticipated recession would likely hit economies around the world later this year or early next year, it is unclear if the 'bottom' has indeed been reached.


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## David - Sydney (Aug 5, 2022)

"*Amid concern that semiconductor capital spending will slowdown*"
This is a strange comment to prefix their lithography question. National security with associated committed government spend into local/regional fabs plus means that more fab equipment is going to be needed for the near future. At some point, there will be excess capacity - even within political geographies as demand slowly stabilises. Cheap/simple screen drivers circuits will be incorporated into new processor designs for instance or options to run on 7-10nm lithography will alleviate supply chain for cars, PCs etc.

There will be continuing need for finer lithography technologies though with phones etc driving demand.

Disruption to TMSC/Taiwan's infrastructure would be a massive global issue... or North Korea hitting South Korea/Japan.


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## Hector1970 (Aug 5, 2022)

You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better. Focus and tracking is already good, it could still be better but after that there is not that many ways to improve. Sensors can be bigger but 100mp versus 50mp is a diminishing return. 30FPS to 50 or 100 FPS is also a diminishing return. There are limits how much better ISO performance can be. Computational photography will probably get more common but will it make a huge difference. For me the Canon 5D IV was the point where I could no longer blame the camera for issues. It's a great do - all camera. By the time Canon bring out the R1 it may be very difficult to improve upon it. The same for lens, they are so good I don't know how Canon can make them better. There will be less and less reasons to upgrade.


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## unfocused (Aug 5, 2022)

Hector1970 said:


> You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better. Focus and tracking is already good, it could still be better but after that there is not that many ways to improve. Sensors can be bigger but 100mp versus 50mp is a diminishing return. 30FPS to 50 or 100 FPS is also a diminishing return. There are limits how much better ISO performance can be. Computational photography will probably get more common but will it make a huge difference. For me the Canon 5D IV was the point where I could no longer blame the camera for issues. It's a great do - all camera. By the time Canon bring out the R1 it may be very difficult to improve upon it. The same for lens, they are so good I don't know how Canon can make them better. There will be less and less reasons to upgrade.


There is still a lot of room for improvement on autofocus, but generally I agree that we are heading for diminishing returns.


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## SnowMiku (Aug 6, 2022)

Hector1970 said:


> You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better. Focus and tracking is already good, it could still be better but after that there is not that many ways to improve. Sensors can be bigger but 100mp versus 50mp is a diminishing return. 30FPS to 50 or 100 FPS is also a diminishing return. There are limits how much better ISO performance can be. Computational photography will probably get more common but will it make a huge difference. For me the Canon 5D IV was the point where I could no longer blame the camera for issues. It's a great do - all camera. By the time Canon bring out the R1 it may be very difficult to improve upon it. The same for lens, they are so good I don't know how Canon can make them better. There will be less and less reasons to upgrade.


I also agree that 30 to 50 to 100FPS and the other things you mentioned is a diminishing return. It will be up to the marketing department to make people believe they will need all of these extra features to get better shots/video.

Battery life would be something they can work on to improve in future models, another thing would be better reliability with no freezing issues. Perhaps they could also integrate with social media and have the ability to upload a picture instantly like you can on a phone, as long as they don't make these features subscription based. A global shutter would be an improvement they could work on as well for high end models.


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## koenkooi (Aug 6, 2022)

Hector1970 said:


> You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better. [..]


There are a lot of ‘quality of life’ improvements possible, which are mostly software related. These are a few I’d like to see:

The builtin focus stacking uses AF for the starting point, it would be nice to have the option to set the start and end points manually and have the camera figure out the required amount of shots needed. Magic Lantern has a module for that, so we know it’s possible.

Allow cameras to sync to each other over bluetooth, set the same date/time, share GPS, self timers, etc.

A mode for DoF bracketing where the camera closes down the aperture after each shot and raises the ISO in a burst. For some macro shots I’m in such an awkward position that doing anything besides pressing the shutter is impossible.

A modern version of A-DEP, where the camera sets the DoF to keep all detected faces in focus. Saying ‘stay parallel to the focus plane’ doesn’t work with toddlers 

Store the IBIS/ILIS telemetry in the movie clips, like Blackmagic is doing for better stabilization in post.
Same for stills and photogrammetry.

Tilt/shift helper modes that suggest settings based on the image in the evf.

Software focus limits for stills and video. No more of the camera trying to focus on the riverbank behind a dragonfly in flight 

Store the DPAF based depthmap in the image, like Apple does for their fake bokeh mode. Lightroom can already use that depthmap for masking.

Display optional DoF tickmarks on the focus distance bar in the EVF.

And a hardware one: A twin light flash with modeling lights suitable for video, for half the price of the MT26-ex, €1400 is too pricey for such a flash, in my opinion. I 3d printed small adapters to mount AL-M9s on the MT24 brackets as a stopgap measure:


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## EOS 4 Life (Aug 6, 2022)

Hector1970 said:


> You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better.


Canon seems perfectly content to sell us lenses


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## SnowMiku (Aug 6, 2022)

EOS 4 Life said:


> Canon seems perfectly content to sell us lenses


I agree, and I think the current DSLR lineup will last for quite a few years before they need to update them, and if they update the M50 and 850D to have better 4k video capabilities then that will be both EF and EF-M good for maybe 5+ years or until demand goes down too much.


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## Chig (Aug 6, 2022)

Hector1970 said:


> You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better. Focus and tracking is already good, it could still be better but after that there is not that many ways to improve. Sensors can be bigger but 100mp versus 50mp is a diminishing return. 30FPS to 50 or 100 FPS is also a diminishing return. There are limits how much better ISO performance can be. Computational photography will probably get more common but will it make a huge difference. For me the Canon 5D IV was the point where I could no longer blame the camera for issues. It's a great do - all camera. By the time Canon bring out the R1 it may be very difficult to improve upon it. The same for lens, they are so good I don't know how Canon can make them better. There will be less and less reasons to upgrade.


Software and connectivity similar to that in smartphones but conservative Japanese companies such as Canon, Nikon and Sony aren't very good at this historically. However if one of them invests heavily in this area they would have a real advantage.
Also allowing third party apps and/or firmware similar to iOS / android smartphones or perhaps full integration/connectivity with smartphones ?
I find it very frustrating how slow and cumbersome it is to just post an image to social media.
On my smartphone I can do a quick edit and instantly post an image to social media but on my dslr I have to remove the card, load it onto my laptop, import into lightroom, edit it and wait for it to upload to LR mobile and then on my phone save the image to apple photos and then post to facebook. Although if I import it into apple photos I save several steps. How many people who have only used smartphones would put up with this nonsense ?


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## john1970 (Aug 6, 2022)

Hector1970 said:


> You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better. Focus and tracking is already good, it could still be better but after that there is not that many ways to improve. Sensors can be bigger but 100mp versus 50mp is a diminishing return. 30FPS to 50 or 100 FPS is also a diminishing return. There are limits how much better ISO performance can be. Computational photography will probably get more common but will it make a huge difference. For me the Canon 5D IV was the point where I could no longer blame the camera for issues. It's a great do - all camera. By the time Canon bring out the R1 it may be very difficult to improve upon it. The same for lens, they are so good I don't know how Canon can make them better. There will be less and less reasons to upgrade.


All very good points. Once the R1 is released I would be curious on what else they would improve upon in future models. Unless there is a fundamental advancement in sensor technology and CMOS sensors are replaced by a different type of sensor.


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## NKD (Aug 9, 2022)

If you can get the job done on older DSLR's and EF glass. No complaints. Books look good.
I know once I do switch it will be the best thing I could have done...Although I will be buying native glass again.. $$$
Once the mirrorless segment has decent battery life it will be the R1 or 5DSRs (no AA) replacment. 
Happy to wait another year or 2 as I have waited long enough allready


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## InchMetric (Aug 9, 2022)

koenkooi said:


> There are a lot of ‘quality of life’ improvements possible, which are mostly software related. These are a few I’d like to see:
> 
> The builtin focus stacking uses AF for the starting point, it would be nice to have the option to set the start and end points manually and have the camera figure out the required amount of shots needed. Magic Lantern has a module for that, so we know it’s possible.
> 
> ...


I was recently granted a patent with some related technology. It protects the concept of recognizing multiple subjects (faces, eyes) and sequentially rapidly imaging both (all) subjects each in focus, then compositing the image. It also discloses and reserves in a pending continuation application (last large paragraph) for later protection focus stacking improvements that relate to detected or selected subjects to establish near and far limits of the stack. 
Practical and automated tilt-shift lenses would also help the out of plane toddler situation. (Identify desired subjects, tilt and shift to achieve best focus - though my invention works with any AF lens using updated firmware).


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## entoman (Aug 13, 2022)

Hector1970 said:


> You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better. Focus and tracking is already good, it could still be better but after that there is not that many ways to improve. Sensors can be bigger but 100mp versus 50mp is a diminishing return. 30FPS to 50 or 100 FPS is also a diminishing return. There are limits how much better ISO performance can be. Computational photography will probably get more common but will it make a huge difference. For me the Canon 5D IV was the point where I could no longer blame the camera for issues. It's a great do - all camera. By the time Canon bring out the R1 it may be very difficult to improve upon it. The same for lens, they are so good I don't know how Canon can make them better. There will be less and less reasons to upgrade.


One of the main reasons why smartphones are replacing traditional cameras is convenience, i.e. they are extremely easy to carry, very light in weight, and simple to use. These IMO are the areas where traditional cameras and lenses still need a lot of improvement.

Optically a modern (Canon etc) lens on a MILc will yield stunning results, yet despite the talk touted by manufacturers about how short flange instances and wide throats would result in smaller and lighter lenses, instances of *significant* size and weight advantages are rare.

Canon has thankfully made a couple of steps in the right direction by offering 600mm F11 and 800mm F11 lenses as alternatives to the gigantic and hugely expensive L versions, and also has the lightweight 85mm macro. I'd like to see a lot more of these lightweight lenses.

Why e.g. produce F2.8 macro lenses, when hardly anyone shoots macro at full aperture? For most purposes (including stacking) people will be shooting macro at F5.6 or smaller apertures, so it would be good to see a stabilised 180mm F5.6 macro. Likewise it would be great to have a light and compact close-focusing 300mm F5.6.

With DSLRs, it was necessary to have wide apertures in order to get a bright viewfinder image. There will be some who want/need very wide apertures for very shallow d.o.f. but IMO there is a real need for smaller and lighter lenses, and many of us would happily sacrifice a couple of stops to get them.


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## AlanF (Aug 13, 2022)

entoman said:


> One of the main reasons why smartphones are replacing traditional cameras is convenience, i.e. they are extremely easy to carry, very light in weight, and simple to use. These IMO are the areas where traditional cameras and lenses still need a lot of improvement.
> 
> Optically a modern (Canon etc) lens on a MILc will yield stunning results, yet despite the talk touted by manufacturers about how short flange instances and wide throats would result in smaller and lighter lenses, instances of *significant* size and weight advantages are rare.
> 
> ...


I agree with a lot of what you write. However, if I need a close focussing 300mm of narrow aperture, I get out the RF 100-400mm, which focusses much closer than any telephoto prime. I would like a 300mm f/4 DO like the tiny Nikon 300 PF as its wider aperture would give an extra stop of better diffraction on the R7. We have this dissonance that the low resolution bodies like the R6 match really well with the narrow lenses but the very high resolution sensors need wide lenses to take advantage of them.


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## Nemorino (Aug 13, 2022)

AlanF said:


> ...I get out the RF 100-400mm, which focusses much closer than any telephoto prime.


Yes it is really a fantastic lens - small, light, good mfd, USM and pleasing price.
IMO the most underrated RF lens.


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## entoman (Aug 13, 2022)

AlanF said:


> I agree with a lot of what you write. However, if I need a close focussing 300mm of narrow aperture, I get out the RF 100-400mm, which focusses much closer than any telephoto prime. I would like a 300mm f/4 DO like the tiny Nikon 300 PF as its wider aperture would give an extra stop of better diffraction on the R7. We have this dissonance that the low resolution bodies like the R6 match really well with the narrow lenses but the very high resolution sensors need wide lenses to take advantage of them.


Somehow I knew you were going to talk up the RF100-400mm Alan .
I'm sure it's an excellent lens.

I do have a "thing" about primes though (despite owning 24-105mm and 100-500mm zooms) as I find that when I limit myself to a fixed focal length on any particular day, it forces me to choose subjects more carefully, compose them better. Zooms make like easier, but can also make me lazy.

I agree that it would be great if Canon brought out a light and compact 300mm F4, but if I'm going to dream, I'd go for a nice sharp 300mm F5.6 that focused down to 1:3 or even better 1:2.


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## AlanF (Aug 14, 2022)

entoman said:


> Somehow I knew you were going to talk up the RF100-400mm Alan .
> I'm sure it's an excellent lens.
> 
> I do have a "thing" about primes though (despite owning 24-105mm and 100-500mm zooms) as I find that when I limit myself to a fixed focal length on any particular day, it forces me to choose subjects more carefully, compose them better. Zooms make like easier, but can also make me lazy.
> ...


Canon has a rather good EF 70-300mm f/4-f/5.6, which they "upgraded" to the RF 100-400mm f/5.6-f/8. The chances of their bringing out a prime 300mm f/5.6 when they already have a good optical formula for a much more versatile and saleable lens are probably worse than you winning the National Lottery, so sweet dreams. They are more likely to bring out an RF 300mm f/2.8. Now, that would be something - a 300-420-600mm, f/2.8-4-5.6, with TCs. However, they never got around to making a Mk III EF version so maybe the sales are not there for it.


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## Cernow (Aug 15, 2022)

I started with a Canon AV 1 and later bought a used AE 1.
When I started working I got myself a EOS 3 for 2700 DM / 1350 € and dreamt of the EOS 1. That was a lot of money in the 1990s.... and the EOS 3 ist still a very good camera.
The cheapest body price for the EOS 3D I can find is round 6000.- € or 12,000 DM in old money.

Sorry brother I am out. I could go for a EOS R5 or R6 sure but for a non-professional and as a hobby photographer I use my cameras not often enough for that kind of money.
Here the EOS 5 MKIII and the EOS R will have to do. And I do certainly not dream of a EOS R1.


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## dolina (Aug 16, 2022)

I hope Canon's right. Last thing we want is for worldwide shipping figures to drop to pre-2003 levels.

If that were to occur per unit cost would increase necessitating a MSRP that matches inflation or higher.


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## entoman (Aug 19, 2022)

unfocused said:


> Hard to take a post seriously when the writer can’t spell targeted and doesn’t know the difference between there and their.


Can't spell "amended" either...


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## entoman (Aug 19, 2022)

koenkooi said:


> There are a lot of ‘quality of life’ improvements possible, which are mostly software related. These are a few I’d like to see:
> 
> A mode for DoF bracketing where the camera closes down the aperture after each shot and raises the ISO in a burst. For some macro shots I’m in such an awkward position that doing anything besides pressing the shutter is impossible.
> Software focus limits for stills and video. No more of the camera trying to focus on the riverbank behind a dragonfly in flight
> ...


Now THAT would be really useful...

... and YES to the other suggestions too.


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## codym90 (Aug 21, 2022)

I feel like people are slowing starting to be more smart with their money. Maybe once the economy gets better but until then I see less people buying expensive cameras. I usually love to upgrade but even I decided to not upgrade anymore until I see a better economy.
-Cody McCracken
Johnson City Boudoir Photographer


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## dolina (Aug 21, 2022)

A reason why Canon sees an upside may be how often they get out of stock with RF products.

I doubt the industry as a whole will ever get to as many units as before.


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## henry77 (Sep 18, 2022)

koenkooi said:


> There are a lot of ‘quality of life’ improvements possible, which are mostly software related. These are a few I’d like to see:
> 
> The builtin focus stacking uses AF for the starting point, it would be nice to have the option to set the start and end points manually and have the camera figure out the required amount of shots needed. Magic Lantern has a module for that, so we know it’s possible.
> 
> ...


Great, Thankyou so much for such detailed information


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## LogicExtremist (Sep 18, 2022)

With Canon becoming an 'old people's brand' and more young people buying Sony or not even bothering with cameras and resorting to smartphones, and the photography industry also contracting considerably in many areas (except wedding, real estate, etc), how long will the current trend last? Short term seasonal trends don't indicate the overall long-term direction, which if we were to draw a trend line to the graphs, would suggest a continued decline.


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## dolina (Sep 18, 2022)

LogicExtremist said:


> With Canon becoming an 'old people's brand' and more young people buying Sony or not even bothering with cameras and resorting to smartphones, and the photography industry also contracting considerably in many areas (except wedding, real estate, etc), how long will the current trend last? Short term seasonal trends don't indicate the overall long-term direction, which if we were to draw a trend line to the graphs, would suggest a continued decline.



We are in a consolidation phase. We may end up having 2-3 players controlling 90+% of the digital still camera market. Ideally non-Mainland China-owned company.






Sony's business model for MILC is to sell sensors housed in a camera body. R&D resources is funded by ~1.4 billion smartphone image sensor annual shipments for which Sony supplies ~50% annually for the past decade+. This is a reason why they're ~6 years ahead of Canon in image sensor tech.

This is similar to how Apple was able to leapfrog Intel in the chips department. R&D resources is funded by ~0.25 billion $429-1599 iPhones shipped annually. Whatever unique attributes the Mac has is then funded by Mac sales. Without the iPhone Apple would still be bouncing from AMD or Intel.

As compared to Canon and until recently Nikon, Fuji, et al Sony does not sell as many quantities of 1st party lenses as those 3 other rivals. So it is more like a side project or icing on the cake for Sony. That may change when Sony ends the no Fee license or restricts 3rd party lens performance and make headway to improve 1st party lens performance.

Over 2 years ago Associated Press switched to Sony.









AP to equip all visual journalists globally with Sony Imaging products







www.ap.org













'We're confident that they can deliver': We talk to AP's Director of Photography about switch to Sony


We spoke to AP's Director of Photography J. David Ake about why the agency has decided to switch to Sony cameras, and what it means for AP staff photographers and videographers.




www.dpreview.com





If another big photonews agency makes the switch then that's an indicator where we are headed.

If you keep track of the R&D spend they're all competing for enthusiast money when it comes to animal & bird photography as demonstrated by

- Canon
- Sony
- Nikon
- Panasonic


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 18, 2022)

dolina said:


> We are in a consolidation phase. We may end up having 2-3 players controlling 90+% of the market


Not really. A decade ago, the ILC market was dominated by just two companies – Canon and Nikon, and there were several other companies with much smaller market share (<6% each). Today, the ILC market is dominated by three companies – Canon, Sony and Nikon, and there are several other companies with much smaller market share (<6% each). There has been limited consolidation among the small players, but going from two major players to three is not market consolidation.

You should note that your graphic represents Japan only (or so I infer from the 'BCN' at the bottom).




dolina said:


> Over 2 years ago Associated Press switched to Sony.


I would not read much into that. You've made a point previously that Sony initially opened up the E mount to gain a foothold in the market. It is reasonable to believe that Sony provided significant financial incentives to the AP to get a foothold in the professional journalism market.


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## dolina (Sep 18, 2022)

neuroanatomist said:


> Not really. A decade ago, the ILC market was dominated by just two companies – Canon and Nikon, and there were several other companies with much smaller market share (<6% each). Today, the ILC market is dominated by three companies – Canon, Sony and Nikon, and there are several other companies with much smaller market share (<6% each). There has been limited consolidation among the small players, but going from two major players to three is not market consolidation.
> 
> You should note that your graphic represents Japan only (or so I infer from the 'BCN' at the bottom).
> 
> ...


Pls provide citations to claims.


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## LogicExtremist (Sep 18, 2022)

Anything can happen in the market over the long term, there are too many variables to account for. We've seen big companies that were "too big to fail" such as Kodak fade away, in the computing world brands such as IBM rose then fell, Wang and DEC vanished. Use the gear that you have now, practise and learn, enjoy it while you've got it and have the good health to use it!


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 18, 2022)

dolina said:


> Pls provide citations to claims.


You make a good point. Looking back, in 2010 Sony had just over 11% of the ILC market (based on a Thom Hogan post citing an IDC report). A bit more in 2014:




In 2021, Canon had ~48%, Sony ~22% and Nikon ~14%. There were three main players a decade ago (not two as I initially suggested), and there are three main players today (but #2 and #3 have switched places). My point remains correct – the market is not consolidating (obviously it's contracting, but that's not the same as a 'consolidation phase' for which you helpfully provided a link to define).


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## dolina (Sep 18, 2022)

neuroanatomist said:


> You make a good point. Looking back, in 2010 Sony had just over 11% of the ILC market (based on a Thom Hogan post citing an IDC report). A bit more in 2014:
> 
> View attachment 205660
> 
> ...


The consolidation I am pointing to are those occurring with smaller brands.


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 18, 2022)

dolina said:


> The consolidation I am pointing to are those occurring with smaller brands.


Can you give some examples of those mergers/acquisitions among the smaller brands?


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## dolina (Sep 18, 2022)

neuroanatomist said:


> Can you give some examples of those mergers/acquisitions among the smaller brands?





neuroanatomist said:


> Can you give some examples of those mergers/acquisitions among the smaller brands?



Smaller brands to bigger brands mergers/aquisitions

Bonus: Samsung's exit of market may have been prevented if they did a Sony and bought out.... Pentax?

- Minolta https://www.lightstalking.com/minolta-sony-relationship/
- Ricoh https://www.digitalcameraworld.com/...-reborn-but-will-disappear-from-camera-stores
- Pentax https://www.adorama.com/alc/ricoh-buys-pentax/
- Samsung https://petapixel.com/2017/04/08/samsungs-camera-business-killed-smartphones-report/
- Olympus https://www.pcmag.com/opinions/what-the-olympus-imaging-sale-means-for-photographers


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 18, 2022)

dolina said:


> Smaller brands to bigger brands mergers/aquisitions
> 
> Bonus: Samsung's exit of market may have been prevented if they did a Sony and bought out.... Pentax?
> 
> ...



Sony bought Konica-Minolta in 2006.
Ricoh bought Pentax in 2011.
Samsung discontinued their very small ILC effort in ~2016, which is neither a merger nor an acquisition.
Olympus divested their camera division in 2020, selling it to a private equity firm, merely an owner and name change for the brand.
Bonus: Ricoh bought Pentax the year after Samsung launched the first NX camera.

In short, your ‘examples’ span the last 16 years, which include the peak of the ILC market. You have only two examples which could be considered consolidation, one from 16 years ago and one from 11 years ago.

You might want to reread that Investopedia article you linked, perhaps you did not understand it completely. 

So I’ll say again, my point remains correct – the market is not in a consolidation phase.


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