# What's Next From Canon?



## Canon Rumors Guy (Jun 11, 2018)

```
After last week’s announcement of the EF 70-200mm f/4L IS II and EF 70-200mm f/2.8L IS III, most everyone around these parts want to know what’s next from Canon. While the roadmap is still a bit unknown for us, we do have some suggestions about what’s on the near horizon from Canon.</p>
<p><strong>Camera Bodies:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Prosumer mirrorless camera announced ahead of Photokina</li>
<li>One DSLR at Photokina</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Lenses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Two “professional” lenses ahead of Photokina</li>
<li>EF-M 32mm f/1.4 ahead of Photokina</li>
<li>New “kit” lens ahead of Photokina</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Cinema:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>One more Cinema EOS body in 2018, some signs point to an EOS C300 Mark III.</li>
<li>New style of cinema camera body</li>
</ul>
<p>A couple of sources have said to expect an accelerated product development cycle over the next 18-24 months over the entire imaging lineup. We’ll let you guess what that means.</p>
<span id="pty_trigger"></span>
```


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## fentiger (Jun 11, 2018)

with the Tokyo olympics due in 2020 i expect a 1DX mark 3, or something along those lines, the speck is anybodies guess, maybe the new 600DO as well


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## ahsanford (Jun 11, 2018)

The sands would appear to be shifting:

It's just "Prosumer mirrorless" now? Are we backpeddling from FF mirrorless around Photokina time?

And a new DSLR in 2018? I thought that was off the table! My rough peg for new higher end models doesn't line up for this fall, so what would it be? The next 77D? The next standard Rebel?

- A


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## MrFotoFool (Jun 11, 2018)

I wonder if they will do any more lenses with Diffractive Optics? The 400 DO ii looks really nice (though I have not used one) and the size and weight of Nikon's new 300 f4 with similar technology is very attractive (almost enough to make me jump to Nikon). Seems like something worth pursuing, so where are all the new DO lenses?


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## ahsanford (Jun 11, 2018)

fentiger said:


> with the Tokyo olympics due in 2020 i expect a 1DX mark 3, or something along those lines, the speck is anybodies guess, maybe the new 600DO as well



I always recommend folks look at Keith's great chart at Northlight. I only paste it here as it's not directly linkable and requires a little scrolling to find.

My take: Canon is a creature of habit. So, yes on a new 1DX lining up with major sporting events, but also look at the rest of the portfolio. Per some prior projections (see links above), *three* better-than-Rebel SLR bodies (90D, 7D3, 5DS2) are roughly timing out to drop in the second half of 2019. 

My very very rough stab at a busy next 18 months:

[Next 9-12 months or so]: Nothing coming before today's rumor. This is a window to make a big splash with FF mirrorless.
End Q2 2019: 90D
End Q3 2019: 7D3
End Q4 2019: 5DS2 (still two models? Who knows.)

...and _then_ we can start talking about 1DX3, 5D5, etc. 

But these projections are just that -- they're total swags based on past timing. Historically, Canon doesn't drop this many new bodies north of $1k in such frantically quick succession. So it's possible they stagger / bring forward specific lines to make the nicer bodies more of a steady flow than a flood.

- A


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## transpo1 (Jun 11, 2018)

What's happening is they are updating their lineup more rapidly and with new products to accommodate the mirrorless and video market and to ward off strong competition in this area from Sony, Panasonic, Fuji, etc. Many of us have been pushing them to do this years and have seen it coming. 

Many on this forum will protest "the sales, the sales," but it's very clear now Canon can see both a long term threat and an opportunity.


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## BeenThere (Jun 11, 2018)

I would think that one or more of these timelines could be terminated depending on reception of whatever Canon gives us in the way if a full frame mirrorless body.


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## unfocused (Jun 11, 2018)

Canon Rumors said:


> One DSLR at Photokina



Wait! ... what!...

I thought we weren't seeing any of the anticipated DSLRs until 2019. Screw the Mirrorless talk. Tell us about something I'm interested in. More info please!


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## ahsanford (Jun 11, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> What's happening is they are updating their lineup more rapidly and with new products to accommodate the mirrorless and video market and to ward off strong competition in this area from Sony, Panasonic, Fuji, etc. Many of us have been pushing them to do this years and have seen it coming.
> 
> Many on this forum will protest "the sales, the sales," but it's very clear now Canon can see both a long term threat and an opportunity.



Where's the evidence of them going faster? I'm not seeing it. A given product line gets refreshed no faster than the one that came before. Canon is certainly aggressively proliferating the number of product lines / price points it is offering, but I don't see it going faster inside of given product line (not yet at least). 

We've been waiting for a major product line to get refreshed faster than expected -- the 5DS and 7D would be perfect candidates to 'respond' with a quicker refresh -- and it never seems to happen.

- A


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## Canon Rumors Guy (Jun 11, 2018)

ahsanford said:


> The sands would appear to be shifting:
> 
> It's just "Prosumer mirrorless" now? Are we backpeddling from FF mirrorless around Photokina time?
> 
> ...



I'm not back pedalling, I'm just saying what I'm pretty sure is true. I've made incorrect assumptions in the past, and I don't like that. Like with the new 70-200s, I made sure what I was reporting was as accurate as possible, as I wasn't 100% on the f/2.8 version as early as I was about the f/4L IS II version.


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## ahsanford (Jun 11, 2018)

Canon Rumors said:


> ahsanford said:
> 
> 
> > It's just "Prosumer mirrorless" now? Are we backpeddling from FF mirrorless around Photokina time?
> ...



Gotcha, thx.

- A


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## KeithBreazeal (Jun 11, 2018)

I'll bet they are in a major re-tooling phase right now. Sniff around for any expansion in acquired floor space and hiring. If Canon doesn't trim back the DSLR production line, the manufacturing line has to expand for mirrorless production.


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## Mikehit (Jun 11, 2018)

ahsanford said:


> Where's the evidence of them going faster? I'm not seeing it. A given product line gets refreshed no faster than the one that came before. Canon is certainly aggressively proliferating the number of product lines / price points it is offering, but I don't see it going faster inside of given product line (not yet at least).
> 
> We've been waiting for a major product line to get refreshed faster than expected -- the 5DS and 7D would be perfect candidates to 'respond' with a quicker refresh -- and it never seems to happen.
> 
> - A



Unless it is a last hurrah before a major shift to mirrorless...


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## ahsanford (Jun 11, 2018)

KeithBreazeal said:


> I'll bet they are in a major re-tooling phase right now. Sniff around for any expansion in acquired floor space and hiring. If Canon doesn't trim back the DSLR production line, the manufacturing line has to expand for mirrorless production.



Agree on a future production shift from SLR to mirrorless, but I'm skeptical on the re-tooling bit.

Unless I'm missing something, a future FF mirrorless body will still require very similar componentry, assembly operations and QE infrastructure to get made. They just won't have OVF + mirrorbox + AF module componentry on the bill of materials and they won't need to install those components on the manufacturing router. It's still an ILC in the broad sense and Canon makes those every day.

- A


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## lexptr (Jun 11, 2018)

Canon Rumors said:


> A couple of sources have said to expect an accelerated product development cycle over the next 18-24 months over the entire imaging lineup.


Well, I hope it doesn't mean even more old lenses with new color scheme…


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## jolyonralph (Jun 11, 2018)

Let me throw my guesses into the ring.

> Camera Bodies:
> Prosumer mirrorless camera announced ahead of Photokina

Full frame mirrorless, something inbetween M5 and 200D in size. probably LP-E17 battery, but more energy efficient Digic 8 should help alleviate some of the battery anxieties. Dual SD slot, 24 to 30 mpx sensor, EF-M mount but bundled with screw-on mount plate (not an adaptor) that can take EF lenses with weather sealing.

Better weather sealing than the Sony range.

> One DSLR at Photokina

I predict that will be the 90D, with 24mpx sensor, 4K video a-la M50 and then early 2019 we'll see the M5 Mark II and the 7D Mark III both with 24mpx sensors and full width DPAF 4K video.

> Lenses:
> Two “professional” lenses ahead of Photokina

These I predict will be the new FF EF-M lenses, an ultra-wide angle zoom and a standard f/2.8 zoom.

> EF-M 32mm f/1.4 ahead of Photokina

I predict the surprise here is that this will also be a full-frame lens. 

> New “kit” lens ahead of Photokina

Could be a new 18-55 iteration for the 90D but I suspect it'll be a slow zoom for the EF-M mirrorless, something like a 28-70 f/3.5-5.6 

> Cinema:

I have no knowledge of Canon Cinema EOS stuff, so I won't pretend I know enough to make predictions here.


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## ahsanford (Jun 11, 2018)

jolyonralph said:


> Let me throw my guesses into the ring.
> 
> [truncated]
> 
> Full frame mirrorless, something inbetween M5 and 200D in size. probably LP-E17 battery, but more energy efficient Digic 8 should help alleviate some of the battery anxieties. Dual SD slot, 24 to 30 mpx sensor, EF-M mount but bundled with screw-on mount plate (not an adaptor) that can take EF lenses with weather sealing.



Ah, the cake-and-eat-it-too / build your own mount version of FF mirrorless. 

- A


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## BeenThere (Jun 11, 2018)

Jolyon,
How would electrical signals get through the screw in mount plate you suggest? Break out the soldering iron. ️


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## ahsanford (Jun 11, 2018)

BeenThere said:


> How would electrical signals get through the screw in mount plate you suggest? Break out the soldering iron. ️



More than just screws -- there'd have to be some ribbon connector or passthrough of some sort. I'd say it could be EF-M mount shape and just mount into the EF-M mount, but that would fall within the light path of the EF Mount, wouldn't it?

I bet it's possible but not nearly as simple as jolyonralph says. That's much more a lens mount conversion service at a Canon shop than something you'd do yourself. I just don't see it happening as a result.

- A


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## masterpix (Jun 11, 2018)

it would be wonderful to see two bodies 7DM3, 5DsRM2


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## Kit. (Jun 11, 2018)

No Powershots?



lexptr said:


> Canon Rumors said:
> 
> 
> > A couple of sources have said to expect an accelerated product development cycle over the next 18-24 months over the entire imaging lineup.
> ...


Why? The better-selling lenses could be updated for more automatic assembly, their lens coating improved and their color scheme changed. Is it a bad thing?


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## HarryFilm (Jun 11, 2018)

I shall jump into this forum by pontificating that Canon SEEMS to have a lot on its plate right now and is trying to do a catch-up-on-all-items push.

1) it is a foregone conclusion that its next big camera announcement will be of a mirrorless system. I suspect it will be a completely NEW MOUNT with a short flange distance allowing extender tubes for various conversions (i.e. Metabones-style). The confusion which I have is whether this will be APS-C or Full Frame. I suspect it will have a M5-style body to complete against the Sony A72s! I would not be surprised to see the DEMISE of the M5 with this as the replacement!

2) a Combined Video/Stills camera XC-15-style is likely the NEXT announcement after a semi-pro or pro-level mirrorless stills camera. I suspect it will be targeted heavily towards low-budget filmmakers and the just-starting-out stills photographer. I suspect it will be a 4K-video-centric 1" chip camera with an interchangeable lens and lots of video codec options.

3) My Euro-Sources are STILL Hot-to-Trot with the idea that Apple is in some way interested in Canon itself as a whole or as part of a joint-venture deal of some sort. I SUSPECT that a large sensor smartphone (1" or greater in size and Apple branded!) will be the result. Even WITH Japanese government concerns, it is VERY LIKELY that such talks are in the late stages and that LARGE AMOUNTS of money will be exchanged. I will even express a 33%+ likelihood that an outright takeover of Canon by Apple is very possible based upon the engineering and finance world rumour mills I am privy to!

4) I know to a high degree of certainty (90%+) that a Medium Format Stills Camera
with a very large sensor (up to 65mm!) is currently in-the-wild testing. From what I hear on the grapevine is that some sort of announcement is coming in late 2018 or early 2019. It will be very expensive from a 1DxMk2 point of view but still MUCH CHEAPER than any Hasselblad or Phase-One MF camera. It is designed for low-light, low-noise and high-burst-rate operation at about 50 megapixels. (i.e. Canon's response to the EXCELLENT 20 fps Sony A9?)

5) I am up-in-arms regarding the Cinema-EOS plans from Canon. I just don't know what's coming OTHER than that Global Shutter DCI-8k (8192x4380 pixel) 60 fps video is A VERY BIG DEAL FOR CANON and will LIKELY be brought to BOTH the C300/C500 body style AND the C700 Body style. I believe an announcement would be more likely at the 2019 NAB show rather than 2018 Photokina.


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## ahsanford (Jun 11, 2018)

That is some next-level paint you are huffing, Harry. Do go on. 

- A


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## deleteme (Jun 11, 2018)

lexptr said:


> Canon Rumors said:
> 
> 
> > A couple of sources have said to expect an accelerated product development cycle over the next 18-24 months over the entire imaging lineup.
> ...


Exactly. I hope we don't see a 5DmkIV in blue.


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## The Fat Fish (Jun 11, 2018)

Will it be an actual prosumer mirrorless or will it be barely entry level with a prosumer price tag?

I like Canon as much as the next person but we can't have more 6DIIs in an A7III world.


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## KeithBreazeal (Jun 11, 2018)

Normalnorm said:


> lexptr said:
> 
> 
> > Canon Rumors said:
> ...



If they are doing the entire line, I'm guessing that this will be a major imaging sensor upgrade that will be worthy for much discussion when the time comes. Hopefully a quantum leap.


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## slclick (Jun 11, 2018)

Isn't the World Cup a time to spot new bodies and glass?


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## Ozarker (Jun 11, 2018)

BeenThere said:


> Jolyon,
> How would electrical signals get through the screw in mount plate you suggest? Break out the soldering iron. ️



Not a problem, especially if it is a composite part.


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## tmroper (Jun 12, 2018)

ahsanford said:


> KeithBreazeal said:
> 
> 
> > I'll bet they are in a major re-tooling phase right now. Sniff around for any expansion in acquired floor space and hiring. If Canon doesn't trim back the DSLR production line, the manufacturing line has to expand for mirrorless production.
> ...



Canon's current DSLR's also function as mirrorless cameras, and have for some time now, including the Full Frame cameras. It's called Live View, and while it's via the back screen instead of a smaller one higher up on the body, all the tech is there (guess they should have called in "Mirrorless View"). Especially since they've been making "EVFs" for decades now in their camcorders and Cinema cameras, complete with all the video goodies like waveform monitor, vectorscope, etc. It doesn't seem like a big job to get it all looking and working like a Sony Alpha, but they do need the desire to do so. And then there's the lens mount issue...


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## infared (Jun 12, 2018)

Well...I think for most that own a 70-200mm f/2.8L IS II, there is no incentive to buy this "up grade". The lens I have is fantastic and there is no incentive for me to change. It would be money and time poorly spent.
The only news that I want to hear about from Canon is about professional-grade mirrorless camera bodies.
That's it. I know many others feel this way as well!


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## Ozarker (Jun 12, 2018)

infared said:


> Well...I think for most that own a 70-200mm f/2.8L IS II, there is no incentive to buy this "up grade". The lens I have is fantastic and there is no incentive for me to change. It would be money and time poorly spent.
> The only news that I want to hear about from Canon is about professional-grade mirrorless camera bodies.
> That's it. I know many others feel this way as well!



Happy to keep mine also. Mine is great too.


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## transpo1 (Jun 12, 2018)

ahsanford said:


> transpo1 said:
> 
> 
> > What's happening is they are updating their lineup more rapidly and with new products to accommodate the mirrorless and video market and to ward off strong competition in this area from Sony, Panasonic, Fuji, etc. Many of us have been pushing them to do this years and have seen it coming.
> ...



You're right- allow me to rephrase- 

What's happening is they are updating their lineup more rapidly and *with* new products to accommodate the mirrorless and video market and to ward off strong competition in this area from Sony, Panasonic, Fuji, etc. Many of us have been pushing them to do this years and have seen it coming. 

By the way, appreciate your straightforward responses with lack of condescension- unlike some others on this forum


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## Generalized Specialist (Jun 12, 2018)

[quote author=<p><strong>Camera Bodies:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Prosumer mirrorless camera announced ahead of Photokina</li>
<li>One DSLR at Photokina</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Lenses:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Two “professional” lenses ahead of Photokina</li>
<li>EF-M 32mm f/1.4 ahead of Photokina</li>
<li>New “kit” lens ahead of Photokina</li>

<p>A couple of sources have said to expect an accelerated product development cycle over the next 18-24 months over the entire imaging lineup. We’ll let you guess what that means.</p>
[/quote]

So it went from a new FF mirrorless body to now a prosumer body. I fully realize that in Canon-speak a prosumer body can be FF, they aren't exclusive. What amazes me is no one has picked up on the 32/1.8 lens. That is coming across an awfully lot like an APS-C lens equivalent 50mm focal length. And a new kit lens. Hmmmm. This is starting to smell like it's going to be a M5 replacement, which is NOT what Canon should be releasing IMO.

And let me point out that it went from Canon releasing a FF mirrorless this fiscal year to now being an accelerated product developement cycle of 18-24 months. Sheesh.

The more I read about Canon and what it's up to the more I tell myself to just jump ship. Heck, I can't even remember the last time I used my Canon gear (maybe last fall?), have been shooting Sony and Fuji pretty well exclusively for awhile now. Canon really is the new Kodak. It's the big lumbering behemoth caught in a market that is changing FAST and it's oblivious to changing with it. They STILL want to protect their DSLR base when the market is SCREAMING mirrorless is what people want to buy. Sad really but at the end of the day they have no one to blame but themselves for this slow motion train wreck.


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## unfocused (Jun 12, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> So it went from a new FF mirrorless body to now a prosumer body... they have no one to blame but themselves for this slow motion train wreck.



You do realize you are reading a rumors site, don’t you? It didn’t go from anything...just different unconfirmed rumors of varying reliability. Also, if you are going to troll this site, can you please figure out how to properly do quotes. It’s very annoying.


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## Generalized Specialist (Jun 12, 2018)

You do realize you are reading a rumors site, don’t you? It didn’t go from anything...just different unconfirmed rumors of varying reliability. Also, if you are going to troll this site, can you please figure out how to properly do quotes. It’s very annoying.
[/quote]

Yes I do realize it's a rumour site. What I get from these rumours is that Canon has no idea WTF they are doing - it's gone from Canon has been testing FF mirrorless for years now with prototypes out there in their photographers hands, to Canon is ready to release a FF mirrorless imminently, to Canon is testing different mounts/sensors, to Canon will release their new FF mirrorless this fiscal year to now there will be a frenzy of activity in the next two years with a new kit lens (yeah, that's what we are screaming for, a new kit lens!) and what seems to be a new APS-C 50mm equivalent. Meanwhile what does Canon release, the M50 turd that no one asked for and apparently, few are buying based on it's almost immediate price slashing.

I stand by what I said - Canon is a hulking behemouth and is much too conservative and much too stodgy to change as fast as the market is changing. Virtually everyone is ready to buy or very interested in a new Canon FF mirrorless and what do they do? A whole bunch of nothing - just vaporware. 

What a contrast in consumer confidence buying right now - The A7iii is constantly sold out as soon as it hits a store somewhere with people flipping thiers for profit and Canon is hacking and slashing prices like crazy begging people to buy and their product is in stock everywhere. A complete 180 degree turn of consumer demand from just a couple of years ago. Used to be that Sony stuff sat on the shelves and Canon was harder to get. 

Like I said, Canon is the new Kodak. My prediction - in a year all we'll have is a few new M5 and M100 and M5 models rounding out the low end with rumours of a FF mirrorless realllllllllly soon now, ready to hit the market in fiscal year 2019 sometime.


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## unfocused (Jun 12, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> Yes I do realize it's a rumour site...



Your response indicates you don’t.


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## 3kramd5 (Jun 12, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> > You do realize you are reading a rumors site, don’t you? It didn’t go from anything...just different unconfirmed rumors of varying reliability. Also, if you are going to troll this site, can you please figure out how to properly do quotes. It’s very annoying.
> 
> 
> 
> Yes I do realize it's a rumour site. What I get from these rumours is that Canon has no idea WTF they are doing





The proper takeaway is that at least some of those spreading rumors don’t know WTF canon is doing.


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## ahsanford (Jun 12, 2018)

3kramd5 said:


> Generalized Specialist said:
> 
> 
> > > You do realize you are reading a rumors site, don’t you? It didn’t go from anything...just different unconfirmed rumors of varying reliability. Also, if you are going to troll this site, can you please figure out how to properly do quotes. It’s very annoying.
> ...



And that some of us need quote training.

- A


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## ahsanford (Jun 12, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> The A7iii is constantly sold out as soon as it hits a store somewhere



He/she is not wrong about _that_, however. I'm not used to seeing the various blogs / sites I read hyping inventory refreshes, but I have seen them of late for the A7 III. It's anecdotal, of course, and part of the A7 III inventory problem was Sony underpegging the initial demand. But the A7 III may actually be a proper hit.

- A


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## Mikehit (Jun 12, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> What I get from these rumours is that Canon has no idea WTF they are doing



Wrong again.
People on forums like this don't know what Canon are doing and then they blame Canon for the confusion. This is the problem with lots of social media - people have lost the ability to discriminate between wishful thinking, rumours and news.



> Virtually everyone is ready to buy or very interested in a new Canon FF mirrorless...


Really? 'Virtually everyone'....
Self important over-represented youtubers think they talk on behalf of the market and a few people believe them then come onto forums like this to say they know what the market wants.



> Canon is hacking and slashing prices like crazy


Odd. Here in the UK, the 5D4 and 1Dx2 have held their prices well.


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## tomscott (Jun 12, 2018)

What ever it is... Its painful.

Although I like the 6DMKII bit of a diamond in the rought its not a shining light on paper and many people were disappointed thinking its not worth it, in practice it is different but there have been no decent releases in ages. The 5DMKIV again great camera but not worth the £3.5k ask. Ive only just picked one up because I dont think they are worth more than £2k with the rest of the competition and innovation across the board.

Then there's the recent lack lustre announcements. Its like they have given up and are just keeping things ticking away not chasing anything.

Anyone waiting and hoping for a killer mirrorless options I think will be severely disappointed. I just cant see them doing it. Canon are not the same company they were back the 2000s chasing the No1 spot not just in sales but in technology.

I wouldnt change system because i like it but they are now just tools I dont really get overly excited about what Canon are bringing to the table which is really sad. Everytime I log on to read some rumors its a pretty depressing read.


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## Mikehit (Jun 12, 2018)

tomscott said:


> What ever it is... Its painful.
> 
> Although I like the 6DMKII bit of a diamond in the rought its not a shining light on paper and many people were disappointed thinking its not worth it, in practice it is different but there have been no decent releases in ages. The 5DMKIV again great camera but not worth the £3.5k ask. Ive only just picked one up because I dont think they are worth more than £2k with the rest of the competition and innovation across the board.
> 
> ...



I think we are heading back to the market as it was in the days of film. 
Back then, every camera had option to use the same films and what differentiated was functionality - how accurate did you want your metering? Did you want weather sealing? Did you want it built like a tank to take the rigours of a professional in the field? As such you had relatively few product lines within each manufacturer. And product turnover was sedate by today's standards.

Up until recently, DSLRs have varied by which sensor generation they have built in, ISO reliability, maximum shutter speed. Product lines have turned over rapidly as technology improved and has become an end in itself for most manufacturers. But now, the real world differences in those basic requirements is getting smaller and things like in-camera focus stacking is, on the whole, a nice headline grabber but of serious interest to very few. And the law of diminishing returns has kicked in big time - hence Olympus stating publicly that they are now concentrating on the premium lines. 
So it is not surprising that rumours forums have become stagnant - I don't find it depressing, I actually find it comforting to know that they are finding it hard to add meaningful developments to the gear I have. It means that enticing me to buy the next model will take some doing and I can save my money and spend it on getting out taking photographs.


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## Woody (Jun 12, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> Like I said, Canon is the new Kodak.



Are MILCs game-changing like film to digital sensors, or are they are merely another evolutionary step in the digital sensor era?

Doesn't matter what you say. Canon just needs to secure another year of 50% market share.


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## Hector1970 (Jun 12, 2018)

I definitely agree with Mikehit we are getting into the area of diminishing returns.
It’s hard to buy a bad camera now.
Even the 1inch sensors are very good.
I have Olympus gear too. The micro 4/3 sensors are good and the lens excellent.
I can be frustrated too at times with Canons slow embrace of mirrorless but other than potentially very high FPS (which I would love to have) there isn’t a great advantage.
Size advantages seem to be counteracted by bigger lens.
Canons lens range is amazing. I couldn’t see how they could improve the 70-200mm II and it looks like Canon were short ideas too. The current range of cameras ( 1DXII aside) are not particularly exciting but they work extremely well and are reliable and ergonomically great. 
Almost any Canon photographers limit today is not his gear but their imaginatio and technique.
A bad carpenter always blames their tools I suppose.
I think it all leaves Canon with a problem.
How does it improve ina meaningful way from here.
It has to battle the limitations of physics and costs.
Smaller and lighter big whites would be great.
Better tracking of moving objects would be great.
High ISO performance and better dynamic range would be desirable. Change here would only be incremental and there is a limit which we are not far from.
I think we will be holding onto gear for longer and longer.
I think in the long run Canon will move away even further away from consumer photography being a key core part of their business. Their photography business’s iceberg is melting.
Not because they are bad but because the industry got so good.


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## Kit. (Jun 12, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> Yes I do realize it's a rumour site. What I get from these rumours is that Canon has no idea WTF they are doing


That's just normal rumor noise. If you do not get such feeling from the rumors, it's not the rumors, but a coordinated ad campaign.



> I stand by what I said - Canon is a hulking behemouth and is much too conservative and much too stodgy to change as fast as the market is changing. Virtually everyone is ready to buy or very interested in a new Canon FF mirrorless and what do they do?


Canon is not that much in the market of gadgets - they are in the market of solutions. The market of multi-k$ gadgets is quite small actually - although very noisy.

People on the market of solutions are not "ready to buy or very interested in a new Canon FF mirrorless" - unless it's a dedicated video camera. They are more interested either in improvement of more proven technologies (like faster autofocus, better IS or sharper, more flare-resistant lenses) or in something cheaper and more pocketable.



> What a contrast in consumer confidence buying right now - The A7iii is constantly sold out as soon as it hits a store somewhere


That tells nothing about "consumer confidence". It only tells that Sony cannot physically deliver what they promised market-wise, and loses profits on that.



> and Canon is hacking and slashing prices like crazy begging people to buy and their product is in stock everywhere.


Which products are those?



> Like I said, Canon is the new Kodak. My prediction - in a year all we'll have is a few new M5 and M100 and M5 models rounding out the low end with rumours of a FF mirrorless realllllllllly soon now, ready to hit the market in fiscal year 2019 sometime.


So what?

The current photo sensor technology is not yet ready for professional-grade FF photo MILC. Canon still has a lot of time to make it right.


----------



## jolyonralph (Jun 12, 2018)

BeenThere said:


> Jolyon,
> How would electrical signals get through the screw in mount plate you suggest? Break out the soldering iron. ️



I can think of two ways it could work, 

One is with a screw-in plate that contains an ef-m to EF adaptor so that you either screw in the adaptor connector, then push the plate down to fix that to the body, or the other way round, it would need the adaptor to be able to move in and out relative to the plate so that it could be rotated, But there are several ways that could work.

The other is for the mount plate with EF-M and EF to be separate plates which can be exchanged. This would be the most flexible and, if you were creative and the patents not too aggressive, it'd be possible for third parties to create new mounts for this, such as Nikon.


----------



## Quackator (Jun 12, 2018)

I place my bet that Canon sticks to EF/EF-S, with added capabilities
that are up/downward compatible. Since the mirror box leaves the 
building, one can easily put a full frame sensor into a body the size
of a Rebel SL2. Also, without a mirror, lenses can protrude into the 
body. This makes EF-S lenses with full frame image circle possible.
Might be handy with wide angle pancakes.

Those full frame EF-S lenses will fit older APS-C cameras, including
crop factor, of course. Owners of such a crop camera can buy a new 
full frame EF-S lens without the need to switch lenses when they at
some point want to upgrade to a full frame camera.

You don't annoy the owners of 140.000.000 lenses without any reason,
and especially not when your former hardest competitor is forced to do
exactly that. Canon sells around 10.000.000 lenses a year. They don't 
need a new mount to make people buy new lenses.


----------



## neuroanatomist (Jun 12, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> Virtually everyone is ready to buy or very interested in a new Canon FF mirrorless and what do they do? A whole bunch of nothing - just vaporware.



Thanks for your very cogent explanation of why Canon sells more full frame cameras than Sony. :

Isn't it embarrassing when reality makes you look foolish?


----------



## jolyonralph (Jun 12, 2018)

Quackator said:


> You don't annoy the owners of 140.000.000 lenses without any reason,
> and especially not when your former hardest competitor is forced to do
> exactly that. Canon sells around 10.000.000 lenses a year. They don't
> need a new mount to make people buy new lenses.



We've already heard talk that the new camera will have a new mount but that EF compatibility will be handled in an ingenious way. The idea I suggested earlier was nothing more than just putting down in words what has already been suggested. 

Canon won't upset existing EF lens owners, but they also don't want to be the only manufacturer tied to a 1980s lens mount moving forwards. At the risk of upsetting existing customers they risk becoming uncompetitive when it comes to new customers.


----------



## Quackator (Jun 12, 2018)

jolyonralph said:


> We've already heard talk that the new camera will have a new mount (...)



We have also heard that the moon was made from green cheese.



jolyonralph said:


> Canon (...) don't want to be the only manufacturer tied to a 1980s lens mount moving forwards.



There is nothing that the EF mount can't do today. Vice versa: Since Canon designed it
with such a far reaching vision, it hasn't reached it's technical limits even remotely.

No competitor has anything that the EF-mount can't do - unless you sport adapting 
exotic lenses with questionable quality and short flange distances.

Others now burn bridges in the attempt to finally switch to a full electronic mount.
A move that Canon did more than thirty years ago. Today, they still have the most 
modern and most compatible mount on earth.

Your talk of "80ies mount" shows one thing: You don't understand what the 
capabilities of this mount are, and how amazingly visionary the engineers 
have been more than 30 years ago.


At the risk of upsetting existing customers they risk becoming uncompetitive when it comes to new customers. 


[/quote]


----------



## john kriegsmann (Jun 12, 2018)

It is beyond agonizing waiting for Canon to come up with a full frame mirrorless camera almost five years after Sony's full frame cameras hit the market. The only chance Canon has of penetrating that market is for the new full frame to accommodate EF lenses. Canon's evolution of native lenses for their cropped sensor mirrorless lenses has been something less than glacial. As Canon improves the capability of their M bodies they are making cheaper slower kit lenses. The original M had an adequate 18-55 mm f5.6 lens with a metal lens mount. The M5 kit lens is a cheaper lens with fiberglass lens mount and an F 6.3. Go figure. Canon you are embarrassing yourselves.


----------



## jolyonralph (Jun 12, 2018)

Quackator said:


> There is nothing that the EF mount can't do today. Vice versa: Since Canon designed it
> with such a far reaching vision, it hasn't reached it's technical limits even remotely.



There is one thing the EF mount can't do today, and that's fit on a compact mirrorless ILC system. The competition are going small for a reason. I talk to many people who have switched from Canon and Nikon to Fuji, Panasonic, Sony and (rarely) Canon EF-M because they want something smaller and lighter. 

Of course there's the occasional (usually) birder who in one breath complains that they won't buy a mirrorless because they prefer an OVF and in the next screams that Canon will be stupid for abandoning the EF mount on the mirrorless camera they won't buy.

If EF mount was so fantastic the EOS-M series would have been launched with EF-S mount.


----------



## jeffa4444 (Jun 12, 2018)

I wonder how many "experts" on here have made a camera or designed a lens. Law of diminishing returns is non-sense, lenses can still be improved, cameras can add features that can improve over time like dual-pixel, or improved auto metering (or perhaps those same people get every exposure right?). Curved sensors that flex can correct for vignetting or image fall off I could go on all day. 

Canon know what they are doing, they have access to more data from multiple sources than we do, they file more patents than any of there competitors, and they have production down to a T. They have sold over 130M EF lenses currently around 10M per year.


----------



## transpo1 (Jun 12, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Generalized Specialist said:
> 
> 
> > Virtually everyone is ready to buy or very interested in a new Canon FF mirrorless and what do they do? A whole bunch of nothing - just vaporware.
> ...



Do they actually? I'd like to see the stats on that. Recently, Sony was reported to be #1 in FF in China.


----------



## Mikehit (Jun 12, 2018)

jeffa4444 said:


> Law of diminishing returns is non-sense, lenses can still be improved, cameras can add features that can improve over time like dual-pixel, or improved auto metering (or perhaps those same people get every exposure right?).



From that email I am not sure you understand what the laws of diminishing returns means....


----------



## Quackator (Jun 12, 2018)

jolyonralph said:


> There is one thing the EF mount can't do today, and that's fit on a compact mirrorless ILC system.



You can fit a full frame sensor inside the body of a Rebel SL2, 
once the mirror box has left the building.
And then the door is open for EF-S lenses with a shorter register
but full frame image circle. There is no need for a new mount.



jolyonralph said:


> The competition are going small for a reason.



And the A7 series is getting bigger with every iteration because they 
found that this was a mistake.



jolyonralph said:


> I talk to many people who have switched from Canon and Nikon to Fuji,
> Panasonic, Sony and (rarely) Canon EF-M because they want something
> smaller and lighter.



You should also talk to those who now curse the tiny and unergonomic 
user interfaces. And those who switched back.



jolyonralph said:


> If EF mount was so fantastic the EOS-M series would have been launched with EF-S mount.



No. The M-series was launched with exactly those in mind who 
wanted small above anything else. It will cater for them for quite
some time to come, while the workhorses will retain tool size
ergonomics.


----------



## jolyonralph (Jun 12, 2018)

Quackator said:


> And then the door is open for EF-S lenses with a shorter register
> but full frame image circle. There is no need for a new mount.



I don't think this would give enough of a benefit for the design of new lenses to make it worthwhile not using standard EF lenses, except perhaps for a cheap kit lens.



Quackator said:


> You should also talk to those who now curse the tiny and unergonomic
> user interfaces. And those who switched back.



There's a big difference between something that is unergonomic and something that you just aren't used to. If you've been using 5D series cameras for the last ten years your muscle memory is going to have a hard time adjusting to ANY new layout. I disliked the layout on the M5 initially (not as much as the M3, but the M5 I felt was still bad), but now, having used it for a while, I find myself perfectly at home with it. Same with the A7RII. Sure there are still some things I'd like changed, but there's no camera that has the perfect interface. 

Larger cameras will always remain an option. But Canon already has some great large DSLR camera bodies, what they don't have right now is a compact FF camera. Give people choice.


----------



## tmroper (Jun 12, 2018)

jolyonralph said:


> Quackator said:
> 
> 
> > You don't annoy the owners of 140.000.000 lenses without any reason,
> ...



Arri is still tied to the 1980s PL mount, so Canon's not the only one "stuck" in the 1980s.


----------



## ahsanford (Jun 12, 2018)

john kriegsmann said:


> The only chance Canon has of penetrating that market is for the new full frame to accommodate EF lenses.



As we've said 5000 times here, EF glass will work on whatever Canon offers in FF mirrorless: we'll either get a full EF mount or we'll get a thinner mount that allows an adaptor. 

And remember, with this new platform, going after Sony is Step #2. First, Canon will gobble up existing SLR and EOS M users. Canonites have been waiting for a first party FF mirrorless solution for their EF glass, so demand is high. Consider: Canon could literally will show up with a system that is 60-80% the spec of its A7 market peer and go from 0% to (IDK) 20-30% market share in the span of a couple years _just by showing up and pulling current Canonites into the FF mirrorless universe_ -- they did the exact same thing with EOS M. 

- A


----------



## ahsanford (Jun 12, 2018)

jolyonralph said:


> Larger cameras will always remain an option. But Canon already has some great large DSLR camera bodies, what they don't have right now is a compact FF camera. Give people choice.



I fail to see why two different camps of the market (I want it small vs. I want it seamless) is a problem. Divide and conquer. Two different camps = at least two different bodies someday for Canon to build lines out of. Easy peasy.

So we'll get both, I believe, but I think the first go will be (effectively) a very small rig in the 6D2 / A7 III sort of space.

But a full EF mount mirrorless for working professionals may very well happen down the road.

- A


----------



## Deleted member 68328 (Jun 12, 2018)

Any chance of the 2 prosumer lenses to be a 135L IS ???
Canon has updated so many lenses over the past 3-4 years, but this one or a 105L IS is in dire need. Not that the 135mm is bad, but IS and latest AF would be a welcome addition.


----------



## neuroanatomist (Jun 12, 2018)

jolyonralph said:


> I talk to many people who have switched from Canon and Nikon to Fuji, Panasonic, Sony and (rarely) Canon EF-M because they want something smaller and lighter.



No doubt. But Canon isn't losing market share, so the 'many' people you talk to aren't really relevant. 




jolyonralph said:


> If EF mount was so fantastic the EOS-M series would have been launched with EF-S mount.



APS-C and FF MILC can have different target markets.


----------



## scyrene (Jun 12, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> The more I read about Canon and what it's up to the more I tell myself to just jump ship. Heck, I can't even remember the last time I used my Canon gear (maybe last fall?), have been shooting Sony and Fuji pretty well exclusively for awhile now. Canon really is the new Kodak. It's the big lumbering behemoth caught in a market that is changing FAST and it's oblivious to changing with it. They STILL want to protect their DSLR base when the market is SCREAMING mirrorless is what people want to buy. Sad really but at the end of the day they have no one to blame but themselves for this slow motion train wreck.



Bye then.


----------



## scyrene (Jun 12, 2018)

jolyonralph said:


> Quackator said:
> 
> 
> > You don't annoy the owners of 140.000.000 lenses without any reason,
> ...



Is the fact it was developed in the 80s relevant? Does everything have to be renewed regularly? Is it broken, and does it need fixing?



jolyonralph said:


> Quackator said:
> 
> 
> > There is nothing that the EF mount can't do today. Vice versa: Since Canon designed it
> ...



Ah, I see. You believe almost everyone wants tiny cameras. It's pretty dismissive of what I would argue is a larger group than your caricatured confused bird photographer.

You're ignoring the rafts of stuff that have been discussed on these forums ad nauseam - that FF mirrorless can never be tiny, that FF and crop mirrorless lines don't need to follow the same model, that some people dislike tiny bodies (for various reasons), that once you add on all but a handful of lenses, FF mirrorless loses most or all its size advantage over DSLRs... But clearly you know best.


----------



## BillB (Jun 12, 2018)

yoms said:


> Any chance of the 2 prosumer lenses to be a 135L IS ???
> Canon has updated so many lenses over the past 3-4 years, but this one or a 105L IS is in dire need. Not that the 135mm is bad, but IS and latest AF would be a welcome addition.



With the new 85f1.4L IS (and the older 100L IS macro) I don't think we will see a 105L IS any time soon.


----------



## ahsanford (Jun 12, 2018)

scyrene said:


> You're ignoring the rafts of stuff that have been discussed on these forums ad nauseam - that FF mirrorless can never be tiny, that FF and crop mirrorless lines don't need to follow the same model, that some people dislike tiny bodies (for various reasons), that once you add on all but a handful of lenses, FF mirrorless loses most or all its size advantage over DSLRs... But clearly you know best.



But there is cache worth paying premium dollars for in small FF bodies. Canon could absolutely sell an RX1R II like fixed lens rig for $3k+. They could build a purpose-built tiny FF ILC platform with a handful of f/2.8 primes and f/5.6 zooms (not kidding) and make a killing of it. Who cares if an f/2.8 zoom or longer lens makes it too big -- there's a way to have a build a small FF construct and people will pay for that.

What melts my face in all these debates is the presumption that [it's not going to be that small in many use cases so we should never do it] and [a full EF mount? Mirrorless is all about being small!] that leads to this binary/polarized debate.

*Altogether now: Canon. can. do. both.* 

Just don't overcommit to the new thin mount's list of lenses and they'll be poised to win both the 'keep it small' coalition _and_ the 'keep it seamless to my SLR' coalition. EF remains the flagship setup and the new thin FF mirrorless mount tops out at 5-7 lenses and that's all ever get (other than periodic refreshes of those same 5-7 lenses). 

Canon has a comically deep double digit list of active ILC product lines right now. Are 2-3 more really going to break the business?

- A


----------



## neuroanatomist (Jun 12, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> neuroanatomist said:
> 
> 
> > Generalized Specialist said:
> ...



Yes, Sony was #1 for two months in one (large) country. Last year they were #2 for two months in another (large) country. And last year, Nikon was #1 in that latter country. For one month. 

The rest of the time? Canon.


----------



## neuroanatomist (Jun 12, 2018)

ahsanford said:


> But there is cache worth paying premium dollars for in small FF bodies. Canon could absolutely sell an RX1R II like fixed lens rig for $3k+. They could build a purpose-built tiny FF ILC platform with a handful of f/2.8 primes and f/5.6 zooms (not kidding) and make a killing of it. Who cares if an f/2.8 zoom or longer lens makes it too big -- there's a way to have a build a small FF construct and people will pay for that.
> 
> What melts my face in all these debates is the presumption that [it's not going to be that small in many use cases so we should never do it] and [a full EF mount? Mirrorless is all about being small!] that leads to this binary/polarized debate.
> 
> ...



Damn you and your logic. If only for bringing a reasoned argument to what should be a mine is bigger than / smaller than yours debate, I hope Canon _never_ gives you your 50/1.4 IS USM.


----------



## ahsanford (Jun 12, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Damn you and your logic. If only for bringing a reasoned argument to what should be a mine is bigger than / smaller than yours debate, I hope Canon _never_ gives you your 50/1.4 IS USM.



Just curious what a tiny lineup might look like if Canon went all-in there, see below on what I could cobble together at Compact Camera Meter. It's pretty damn tiny.

Left to right (I'd put in more FF pancakes but the site doesn't have that many, and I didn't want to get called out for E-Mount glass instead of FE-mount):

A7III + 24 f/2.8
A7III + 35 f/2.8 
A7III + 50 f/1.8 (surely a slower pancake would be an option as well)
A7III + 28-70 f/3.5-5.6
5D4 + 24-70 f/4L IS (for scale)

And I think a 24-50 f/5.6 (or even f/6.3 if not married to Canon's EF SLR focusing mandate) would be quite tiny, say EF 35 f/2 IS USM big.

So that's Platform A (perhaps throw in a slow UWA zoom, slow 85 prime and a macro) and you call it good. _You're done with new lenses with that mount -- that's all you ever get other than refreshes_. Leave the exotica fast glass, FD/FX/Alpha conversion kits and other FLs/speeds that won't save you any size/weight to the third parties that are springing up every day. If you want something else from Canon, pull out the EF adaptor.

Platform B comes later, aimed squarely at the 1D/5D camp, and it packs a full EF mount.

[Wipes hands.] I think we're done here.

- A


----------



## jolyonralph (Jun 12, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Yes, Sony was #1 for two months in one (large) country. Last year they were #2 for two months in another (large) country. And last year, Nikon was #1 in that latter country. For one month.
> 
> The rest of the time? Canon.



I've no reason to doubt you, but this is not great news if it's true - less reason for Canon to innovate.


----------



## jolyonralph (Jun 12, 2018)

ahsanford said:


> So that's Platform A (perhaps throw in a slow UWA zoom, slow 85 prime and a macro) and you call it good. _You're done with new lenses with that mount -- that's all you ever get other than refreshes_. Leave the exotica fast glass, FD/FX/Alpha conversion kits and other FLs/speeds that won't save you any size/weight to the third parties that are springing up every day. If you want something else from Canon, pull out the EF adaptor.
> 
> [Wipes hands.] I think we're done here.
> 
> - A



I think you're mostly right there. What I'd also like to see is an EF-M FF 70-300 DO - The DO never really was popular for many reasons on the larger bodies, but really comes into its own on the smaller body, especially with newer generation DO systems.


----------



## ahsanford (Jun 12, 2018)

jolyonralph said:


> neuroanatomist said:
> 
> 
> > Yes, Sony was #1 for two months in one (large) country. Last year they were #2 for two months in another (large) country. And last year, Nikon was #1 in that latter country. For one month.
> ...



+1. Right now it feels like Canon is competing with one hand behind its back and it is still making money.

I want Canon to get a bit bloodied financially, question itself and possibly grow as a result. Even the most dug-in Canon supporter would agree we'd all benefit if Canon offered more spec-per-dollar.

- A


----------



## unfocused (Jun 12, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> ahsanford said:
> 
> 
> > But there is cache worth paying premium dollars for in small FF bodies. Canon could absolutely sell an RX1R II like fixed lens rig for $3k+. They could build a purpose-built tiny FF ILC platform with a handful of f/2.8 primes and f/5.6 zooms (not kidding) and make a killing of it. Who cares if an f/2.8 zoom or longer lens makes it too big -- there's a way to have a build a small FF construct and people will pay for that...
> ...



I hate to break up this lovefest, but I'm skeptical of any claim by anyone that they know what Canon could sell. 

AvTvM/Fullstop takes infinite grief on this site (well-deserved by the way) for insisting that he knows the market. So really, when you say Canon could "absolutely sell" something, what is the basis of your confidence? 

I have no idea what Canon (or any company) can and can't sell and, more importantly, what they can sell and make profitable. Admittedly, I am almost completely uninterested in a full-frame mirrorless camera, so all of these discussions are simply academic to me and that certainly adds to my skepticism. Still I'd like to see some solid reasoning, if not evidence, that supports your claims. Otherwise, it's no different than AvTvM/Fullstop.


----------



## MTSG (Jun 12, 2018)

'accelerated product development cycle over the next 18-24 months'

Canon!
o, o, good morning!

have a look - the money is still in my pocket
and it is not yours!

you lost us on: 
50/1.4 
200-600/xx
4k/60p
are u still ok?
are u still think u no need my money on that?
are u still hv good press?

congrat! u got 3 super sensor anounced nearly 1April/Fool
do u think we will wait to get from you ANY (ANY!) dslr/mirrless gear 3-5 years ???!!!

do you know old, really OLD sentence:
-we hv money
-we hv space
-we hv...
-we hv ...
-BUT WE DON'T HAVE A TIME!

hello, waiki waiki
luckily your 4k/30-60p products are USELESS underwater, in air, in space (hv u ever been?) and in this sort i hv my gp/6h now luckily

but, when u get dressed one of yr super sensor on shelve?
when i can give u my MONEY and get it?

seems u no need my money, at all


----------



## neuroanatomist (Jun 12, 2018)

MTSG said:


> seems u no need my money, at all



True. Since 50% of the ILC market is buying Canon cameras, they don't give a damn about you.


----------



## ahsanford (Jun 12, 2018)

unfocused said:


> I hate to break up this lovefest, but I'm skeptical of any claim by anyone that they know what Canon could sell.
> 
> AvTvM/Fullstop takes infinite grief on this site (well-deserved by the way) for insisting that he knows the market. So really, when you say Canon could "absolutely sell" something, what is the basis of your confidence?
> 
> I have no idea what Canon (or any company) can and can't sell and, more importantly, what they can sell and make profitable. Admittedly, I am almost completely uninterested in a full-frame mirrorless camera, so all of these discussions are simply academic to me and that certainly adds to my skepticism. Still I'd like to see some solid reasoning, if not evidence, that supports your claims. Otherwise, it's no different than AvTvM/Fullstop.



Fair. I'll answer the 'could absolutely sell an RX1R II' question with a few questions in return:


What is the price of the Nikon Df body today? $2795. The same price it was at launch, some _five_ years ago.


What is the price of the RX1R II today? $3298. The same price it was was when it was announced nearly 3 years ago.


And the Leica Q? $4495. Same as launch three years ago.

I contend -- based on said evidence -- that demand is sufficiently great for luxe/fancy/style-related camera in this era of lifestyle traveling 1%-ers (with more money in their pocket than they know what to do with) that there is room for another high prestige FF offering. Such an offering is not aimed at we, the general market -- it is aimed at moneyed folks who dig the exclusivity of the tech, the simplicity and the IQ it can deliver. It does not need to offer the comprehensive value/feature-set/lens portfolio in more prizefight-like FF enthusiast/professional space -- it just needs to be cool and easy and take better pictures than their friends' cameras. Bonus points if it makes you seem richer or a tastemaker in the process.

As for the super-tiny mirrorless platform alongside an EF mirrorless platform, I said 'could'. I have no idea if it would be profitable, but _it would seem practical_ given the ongoing fragmentation/camps within the market. That's just a working theory of mine, not a proven market strategy at all.

- A


----------



## sebasan (Jun 12, 2018)

I think this kind of threads are released by Canon Rumors to attract all the trolls in the neighborhood and get a lot of clicks. I am not criticizing Canon Rumors, but I think there is no much information and lot of non sense in this (and similar) threads.
Greetings.


----------



## BillB (Jun 12, 2018)

ahsanford said:


> unfocused said:
> 
> 
> > I hate to break up this lovefest, but I'm skeptical of any claim by anyone that they know what Canon could sell.
> ...



I follow your reasoning, but I wonder how many of these cameras are being sold, and whether making money is a goal in keeping these cameras on the market in any specific way beyond pushing the brand presence.


----------



## BillB (Jun 12, 2018)

ahsanford said:


> neuroanatomist said:
> 
> 
> > Damn you and your logic. If only for bringing a reasoned argument to what should be a mine is bigger than / smaller than yours debate, I hope Canon _never_ gives you your 50/1.4 IS USM.
> ...



Maybe a slow relatively inexpensive zoom down to around 16mm, parallel to inexpensive EF-S and EF-M offerings


----------



## HarryFilm (Jun 13, 2018)

Here's what's coming next from my MULTIPLE Euro-sources:

I have access to corporate and other intelligence systems that have been rather reliable for me in the past. I don't ask for nor discuss personal identification with my sources since they want to keep themselves anonymous, but I can say that their technical and educational credentials are at such a high-level that they CANNOT be dismissed easily! (i.e. I can't really argue with actual CPU/GPU/DSP chip designers!)

1) Canon is is coming with a short flange distance mirrorless camera.
It will look very much like the M5 and may actually be intended to replace it!
A Canon corporate decision has NOT YET BEEN MADE as to whether to sell the currently in-testing APS-C or Full Frame versions OR BOTH !!! An adapter of some kind will be made available for EITHER or BOTH cameras to allow OTHER Canon lenses to have full functionality!

2) An up-to-65mm Very Large Sensor Medium Format Camera having 50 megapixels at a greater than Sony's 20 fps burst rate has been in-the-wild-testing for almost two years at various levels of refinement. 

A large-format specialty EF mount has been designed along with a decent range of lenses created to appeal to sports/action/wildlife (200mm, 400mm, 600mm) plus portraiture (16mm, 35mm, 50mm, 85mm and 135 primes) and ONE stabilized 70-to-200mm zoom will be introduced. One Tilt Shift and Macro lens are also on the table but I don't know what focal length they are. The lenses are so large that focus-by-wire has been implemented BUT there is STILL a MANUAL focus and iris ring on these lenses but they are TRULY drive-by-wire designs.

These new lenses will all be PREMIUM L-series being very large and heavy but WELL PRICED compared to the higher end Leica, Zeiss, Fujinon lenses. This is a system that is DESIGNED for very low-light and very low noise photography at 50 megapixels (i.e. at around 8k by 6.xx k-pixels). 

From what I understand, the DSP processing onboard is 20-bits per channel digitizing down to 16-bits per colour channel at 4:4:4/4:2:2 wavelet-based stills AND 4:4:4/4:2:2 INTERFRAME and INTRAFRAME encoded full-sensor downsampled 4k video at 60 fps! The consistent story I am getting from ALL my sources is this is to be Canon's FLAGSHIP STILLS camera being faster, higher resolution, lower noise and MUCH BETTER IMAGE/VIDEO QUALITY than the 1Dx Mk2....the biggest issue is that you will be paying a pretty penny for both the camera and lenses and that Canon expects 200,000+ of them to be sold within it's first 6 months of introduction! (that seems a bit low to me), but anyways, that's still up to 3.2 BILLION EUROS if it stays at the 12000 to 16000 Euros mark for just the body that I have been told it will be sold at!

Add on the lenses and Canon could be on the mark for 5 BILLION+ Euros in just Six Months! For the 350 Million Euros of Research and Development it was estimated/rumoured to cost for this camera, I would say that is a pretty good return on investment!

3) SOME sort of agreement between Apple and Canon is on the table RIGHT NOW!!!
It might be either a joint-venture agreement OR a straight-up takeover of Canon by Apple...BUT...the rumour mill is so hot right now on this, that I am getting well- bombarded by conflicting stories as to which it is! Joint Venture or Takeover?
I can't be truly confident yet as to which it is but I will let you know!

ONE THING that is consistent though is that one or more LARGE SENSOR SMARTPHONES (one inch sensors or larger!) using Canon imaging hardware and software IS in the cards! Will it be Apple-branded or Canon-branded...WHO KNOWS ???

4) DCI 8k (8192 by 4380 pixel) 60 fps Global Shutter sensors ARE coming to the Cinema EOS line of video cameras. There absolutely WILL be Full Frame AND APS-C models! Looks like NAB 2019 is the big splash date for this!

5) And an update to making a combined stills/video XC-15-like body with an interchangeable lens system LIKELY to be introduced at Photokina. 20 megapixels+ with 1" chip and decent 4K interframe-encoded video at 60 fps. Possibly 10-bit 4:2:2.

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST !!!!!!


----------



## transpo1 (Jun 13, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> jolyonralph said:
> 
> 
> > I talk to many people who have switched from Canon and Nikon to Fuji, Panasonic, Sony and (rarely) Canon EF-M because they want something smaller and lighter.
> ...



Canon sees a trend and potential future where they could lose market share, which is why it seems they are shaking things up a little. It’s also hard to believe they’re not losing FF market share. Very skeptical of that claim.


----------



## 3kramd5 (Jun 13, 2018)

HarryFilm said:


> (i.e. I can't really argue with actual CPU/GPU/DSP chip designers!)



Why?


----------



## HarryFilm (Jun 13, 2018)

3kramd5 said:


> HarryFilm said:
> 
> 
> > (i.e. I can't really argue with actual CPU/GPU/DSP chip designers!)
> ...



---

I am guessing THEY have something to do with ACTUAL imaging sensor and/or CPU/GPU/DSP work done on the specific products I am reporting on! ...OR...they know or have DIRECT contact with the people doing the actual work for Canon, Sony, Panasonic, etc. Every indication I get from these sources leads me to believe thay have at least SPECIFIC knowledge of what's coming down the pipeline AND they have the deep electrical engineering knowledge to tell me and comment on when OTHER reports from OTHER SOURCES are utter bilge or not!

Again! They have been reliable in the past AND I simply cannot ignore people who have actually DESIGNED the base hardware and electrical portions of products some of you use every day! While I don't have ANY specific personal details since they HAVE ENSURED that they are anonymous to me, I have done enough diligence to know that their opinions and statements CANNOT BE EASILY DISCOUNTED !!!

Ergo, I believe my earlier forum posts TO BE CORRECT and A LIKELY TRUE LIST OF what camera products are coming down the pipeline from Canon in the very near future !!!


----------



## neuroanatomist (Jun 13, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Canon sees a trend and potential future where they could lose market share, which is why it seems they are shaking things up a little. It’s also hard to believe they’re not losing FF market share. Very skeptical of that claim.



They haven't shaken anything up yet. Certainly the EOS M line shows that Canon can be very competitive in the MILC segment. Regarding FF MILCs, consider that the major source of those buyers for Canon will be current Canon APS-C owners. 

Sorry it's hard for you to believe it. Last year, Sony did a press release to announce that they were #2 in FF ILC sales in the US for a two month period. Nikon then announced they were #1 in FF ILC sales in the US...for one month. Who do you think was #1 for the other 11 months? Don't you think, given that Sony formally announced they were #2 for a brief shining moment, that if they actually managed to take significant market share from Canon they'd shout it from Mt. Fuji?

If it makes you feel better, I'll readily concede that Sony totally dominates the FF mirrorless segment.  They also have a solid lead in the global MILC market (but their latest internally-generated projections have them losing market share).


----------



## transpo1 (Jun 13, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> transpo1 said:
> 
> 
> > Canon sees a trend and potential future where they could lose market share, which is why it seems they are shaking things up a little. It’s also hard to believe they’re not losing FF market share. Very skeptical of that claim.
> ...



No, of course Canon have not shaken anything up yet, or in a long time. But, judging by these rumors (if they are true), they will. And as any good businessman or woman knows- disrupting yourself is the key to longevity of sales; disrupt yourself before someone else does. And if these rumors are true, Canon knows this- and have learned it recently with the buzz surrounding MILC products from competitors. I’m totally agnostic when it comes to brands, so it doesn’t matter to me who wins, except that I do own a lot of Canon glass which is why I would like them to compete in this MILC hybrid/video arena and disrupt themselves before others do.


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## HarryFilm (Jun 13, 2018)

As a general outline in terms of how to BACK-UP the veracity of my statements, I do confess that I am a man of science and TRY to apply the Scientific Method to technology reporting. I first observe if my source (or multiple sources!) have substantiative data that is consistent with known scientific/engineering principles and/or known technology. Then I determine if OTHER sources have coincidental information that meshes with said initial source. After that, I determine the CREDENTIALS and/or experience of the source to see if they actually have a technical basis to make a claim. 

Finally, I perform "An Experiment" to be replicated across multiple sources that is structured in a way to see if the TECHNICAL UNDERPINNING of what is stated is indeed consistent with my first source. For example, I know that "Sony Guy" has told me that 100,000 2/3rds inch sensor chips were ordered to be shipped to a warehouse via rail to Chengdu, China AND I find out from "Foxconn Girl" that their Still Camera manufacturing plant in Chengdu is receiving 100,000+ Sony Exmor chips via rail next week, AND I find out from "Lens Guy Korea" that 100,000 2/3rds inch kit lenses with a Sony logo on them are being shipped to a warehouse in Chengdu, I can reasonably make a connection that a New Camera from Sony is coming out in X-number of weeks/months.

From there I will ask Singapore Finance Girl what their Freight On-Board list is in terms of 100,000 piece containers is like. If she tells me in June that eight 40 ft containers worth of 100,000 Sony items is going to Los Angeles...SO...I can see all the connections indicating that in September (4 to 6-week marine shipping schedule) a 2/3rd inch kit-lenses camera setup is likely to me introduced for sale after Photokina from Sony!

Same with Canon !!! If I find out that 400,000 180mm , 160mm and 140mm diameter 1200 mm long aluminum or magnesium tubes from Taiwan have been shipped to the Osaka Canon lens factory, I can reasonably say that a VERY LARGE BARREL FORMAT LENS is being produced. If I also see an order for 20000 litres of flourine (for flourite glass) are also being shipped the same week it means the flourite order indicates an L-series lens and an Indium Oxide order indicates a very specialized coating AND if I see magnesium sheet rolls of 1/32nds inch thick i coming from a factory on Hokkaido AND that multiple cobalt steel stamp/mold forms are coming Toshiba metalworks that is 250mm by 200mm by 150mm THAT indicates a LARGE CAMERA BODY is being stamped out ....SOOOO....ergo, a medium format camera and lens system is a LIKELY possibility!

It's all about connecting the dots. Soooo while my sources are anonymous, they ARE mostly engineers and finance people....WHICH ALLOWS ME... to make multiple connections to give me a reasonable outline of what is coming down the pipeline AND WHEN! My sheer experience in large systems development gives me the expertise to make reasonable estimates on raw materials usage and shipping times so I can then MAKE A VERY REASONABLE GUESS as to who is making what, at where, and then find out when they will deliver! SOOOOOO......I believe that Canon will have a mirrorless APS-C and/or Full Frame M5-look-alike AND/OR a XC-15-like one-inch sensor, combined ILC video/stills camera announcement at or just before Photokina 2018! AND....I believe that February/March 2019 will have Canon making an announcement on a Medium Format Large Sensor camera!

So there YOU HAVE IT !!!!

REMEMBER! YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST !!!!!!!!!!


----------



## 3kramd5 (Jun 13, 2018)

HarryFilm said:


> As a general outline in terms of how to BACK-UP the veracity of my statements, I do confess that I am a man of science and TRY to apply the Scientific Method to technology reporting.
> [snip]
> So there YOU HAVE IT !!!



Valiant try; you made it all the way to the initial step (constructing a hypothesis)!


----------



## ahsanford (Jun 13, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> If it makes you feel better, I'll readily concede that Sony totally dominates the FF mirrorless segment.


_
Do they? _ I think Leica SL sales are highly underreported. I'm told that authoritarian regimes use the SL + 90-280 combo as a cudgel to put down riots. ;D

- A


----------



## Mikehit (Jun 13, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Canon sees a trend and potential future where they could lose market share, which is why it seems they are shaking things up a little. It’s also hard to believe they’re not losing FF market share. Very skeptical of that claim.



Why are you sceptical? because it does not match you biases?


----------



## Kit. (Jun 13, 2018)

ahsanford said:


> But there is cache worth paying premium dollars for in small FF bodies. Canon could absolutely sell an RX1R II like fixed lens rig for $3k+. They could build a purpose-built tiny FF ILC platform with a handful of f/2.8 primes and f/5.6 zooms (not kidding) and make a killing of it. Who cares if an f/2.8 zoom or longer lens makes it too big -- there's a way to have a build a small FF construct and people will pay for that.


I'm not convinced that it would be profitable for Canon (I'm not convinced that it is profitable for Sony either, apart from probably being a part of their marketing campaign for their definitely profitable image sensors business). What's worse to me, I'm not convinced that it won't distract Canon's engineers from something I would consider more interesting than the current "state of the art" MILC.

The next mirrorless camera I'm waiting for is G7X Mark III. My S100 needs replacing, which also means its underwater housing needs replacing. My current housing survived two S100s, so I'm not going to buy one that is going to be obsolete in several months.

What I personally want from my next (and first) MILC is global shutter and a round sensor for FF lens image circle. Which at the moment would be too expensive for me.

What I want from my next short-flange mount MILC is removal of microlenses and their replacement with more short-flange-friendly technology (DO or whatever). Which at the moment just doesn't exist.


----------



## Mikehit (Jun 13, 2018)

HarryFilm said:


> Here's what's coming next from my MULTIPLE Euro-sources:



So what you are saying is that no-one knows what Canon are doing with their upcoming mirrorless camera - but one thing that is certain is that it will have a sensor of one size or another

That they are making a medium format camera with a data throughput that smacks the 1Dx2 into the long grass. Despite there not being a single rumour elsewhere that I can find

And despite the tech industry being a hotbed of rumours and investments, you are the only one in the world giving credence on the internet to stories of a takeover. or is it a joint venture? Or have they agreed to swap Christmas cards? You were saying only a few short weeks ago it was a takeover, and now you don't know. 

So when you say your sources have been 'rather reliable' for you in the past, what you really mean is that they are acting than little more than a rumour site.


----------



## HarryFilm (Jun 13, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> HarryFilm said:
> 
> 
> > Here's what's coming next from my MULTIPLE Euro-sources:
> ...



---

The Medium Format camera has been in testing for quite a long time - I've seen the photos of it from Germany! It looks like stretched-out 1Dx Mk2 in the vertical and horizontal and quite-a-bit THICKER front to back! It has a HUGE mount getting pretty close to the size of the very large format Alexa-65 video camera mount.

The Mirrorless M5-look-alike is a bit more nebulous in specs but the number of statements made by engineering and finance indicates a short flange and 4:2:2 10 bits stills/video. Based upon what I see in my rumour mill arena, I am erring on the side that it will be an APS-C sensor rather than a full frame camera.

The Apple/Canon thing is from finance types who say there are activist shareholders in Apple who are pressuring the Apple board to spend some money in ways OTHER THAN a share buyback so as to get the market excited allowing the Apple stock price to rise.

The TWO names that consistently pop up are Canon and Texas Instruments and from a TECHNOLOGY point of view, they BOTH make sense for Apple to buy, especially since BOTH Canon and TI have chip building technology allowing Apple to bring RAM/CPU/GPU chip production entirely in-house! Canon would cost Apple about $55 Billion US and Texas Instruments could be had for $25 Billion US! The technology side rumors have LATELY been saying that Apple wants to buy large sensors from Canon for a new Large Sensor Smartphone while OTHER rumor mill engineers are saying it is Canon that wants to bring out the large image sensor smartphone. At this point I have to step back and say that a new large sensor smartphone IS COMING but what logo it will have i still don't know with any certainty! But what I AM certain of is that the image sensor will be AT LEAST a one-inch sensor maybe even APS-C size !!!

I do have though an almost ironclad proof that Apple and Canon executives HAVE been talking at very high levels for SOME type of agreement! (I won't mention what that is though because of the source's sensitive position!) Are those talks regarding a complete buyout/takeover OR is it a joint venture meetup to merely exchange patents? Based upon my finance-type sources, I am saying that the talks are about a COMPLETE PURCHASE of Canon by Apple rather than just a joint venture/patent exchange agreement!

My sources also predicted a Global Shutter C700 and they NAILED it's feature set dead-on! They also nailed the fact that the C500 would be left as is and 4K video would come to the C300 Mk2 instead. They are saying now on the video side that DCI 8K (8192x4380 pixels) 60 fps Global Shutter video is coming to a C300/C500 Cinema EOS body style at its current S35 sensor-style/size AND the C700 will receive an 8K Full Frame Global Shutter sensor at NAB 2019!

They also predicted the XC-10/XC-15 video cameras and I suspect they are PROBABLY CORRECT on the coming update which is to be interchangeable lens with 4:2:2 10-bit 60 fps codec on a one inch 4K video sensor and 20 megapixels for stills! This MAY be announced at Photokina 2018

Now of course, all we can do is WAIT until Photokina and NAB 2019 !!!!

or until Apple and Canon make a joint announcement (or NOT!)

Anyways, you ARE ALLOWED to take my statements with a grain or a million of salt!

BUT....WE SHALL SEE !!!!!

AGAIN! YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST !!!!!!!!


----------



## unfocused (Jun 13, 2018)

unfocused said:


> unfocused said:
> 
> 
> > Fleetie said:
> ...



June 13. Still waiting...


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## Mikehit (Jun 13, 2018)

HarryFilm said:


> there are activist shareholders in Apple who are pressuring the Apple board to spend some money in ways OTHER THAN a share buyback



So it is not even a rumour about Canon, but a rumour that 'activist shareholders' (who are arguably the most dangerous of the bunch) are pressuring Apple to spend money. The best way to apply pressure is to make it public! But no-one has.
Jeez.


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## ahsanford (Jun 13, 2018)

HarryFilm said:


> AGAIN! YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST !!!!!!!!



Again: Next. level. paint. is being huffed in dangerous quantities here.

The reality Harry lives in has got to be _amazing_. Like an alternate universe where Freaks and Geeks and Firefly didn't get cancelled in their first seasons. Like a place where drywall tastes delicious and there is a Professional Hugging League that overtakes soccer as the world's #1 sport. Like a place where we're on the EF 50 f/1.4 IS USM IV by now. 

- A


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## HarryFilm (Jun 13, 2018)

unfocused said:


> unfocused said:
> 
> 
> > unfocused said:
> ...



===

BECAUSE I CAN"T TALK ABOUT IT !!!! GET IT !!!!

When YOU design and code a 4:4:4/4:2:2/4:1:1/4:2:0 High-Frame-Rate up-to-16-bits per colour channel Codec with multichannel audio, video and metadata streaming capability and is platform-independent AND THEN sell it to a large corporation...THEN YOU CAN ASK WHAT'S UP -- Otherwise (*^$*#&^*&$*&[email protected]&*$($(*[email protected]$&* !!!!!!


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## slclick (Jun 13, 2018)

ahsanford said:


> HarryFilm said:
> 
> 
> > AGAIN! YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST !!!!!!!!
> ...



You had to bring up Firefly.


----------



## Adelino (Jun 13, 2018)

ahsanford said:


> jolyonralph said:
> 
> 
> > Larger cameras will always remain an option. But Canon already has some great large DSLR camera bodies, what they don't have right now is a compact FF camera. Give people choice.
> ...



I agree, two mounts are do-able.


----------



## Mikehit (Jun 13, 2018)

HarryFilm said:


> unfocused said:
> 
> 
> > unfocused said:
> ...



But you did talk about it. 
And if I recall correctly you were happy to release it for the benefit of the unfortunate customer (stated and re-iterated!). Now you've gone all corporate on us. 




> AND TO RE-ITERATE, this will be ALL FREE and OPEN SOURCE for your technical pleasures and use on your cameras! Leave comments below as to what features YOU WANT and I will see what I can do...


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## HarryFilm (Jun 13, 2018)

These are the Media Merger Headlines in the last two days:

"Judge Approves $85 Billion AT&T and Time Warner Merger!"

"Comcast Bids $65 Billion for 21st Century Fox"

---

The AT&T Anti-trust court case decision allowing the deal to go ahead NOW means large media conglomerates will be able to merge without fear of excessive anti-trust oversight and review delays.

The NEXT Deals that are in the Works within the Coming Weeks and Months:

"Apple Buys Canon for $55 Billion" ...OR... "Apple Buys Texas Instruments for $25 Billion"

"Sony and Microsoft in $20 Billion Joint Venture Agreement" 

"Disney Buys Microsoft X-Box Division for $8 Billion"

"Sony/Microsoft Buys Sigma for $5 Billion"

"Nikon and Fujifilm Merge in $15 Billion Deal"

"Bertelsmann and Facebook Merger Creates USA/Euro Media Giant"

"Viacom and Walt Disney in Talks to Merge"

REMEMBER !!! YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST !!!!!!!!!!!


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## HarryFilm (Jun 13, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> HarryFilm said:
> 
> 
> > unfocused said:
> ...



===

It's no longer my problem...when the company heard about what I was doing, I was informed rather stridently as to the very strict corporate policies and that it's NOT my decision(s) to make as to what to do with the codec code I developed....it's THE COMPANY'S PEROGATIVE as to what to do with the code I create! They have a larger contingent of very expensive lawyers than I do!

I should note, I'm not complaining...it's a decent exchange for my silence and acquiescence..........!!! Oh Well! It's another peon crushed underneath the giant corporate yoke !!!

....AND I SHOULD NOTE --- LIFE JUST ISN'T FAIR, IS IT ???


----------



## Mikehit (Jun 13, 2018)

HarryFilm said:


> ===
> 
> It's no longer my problem...when the company heard about what I was doing, I was informed rather stridently as to the very strict corporate policies and that it's NOT my decision(s) to make as to what to do with the codec code I developed....it's THE COMPANY'S PEROGATIVE as to what to do with the code I create! They have a larger contingent of very expensive lawyers than I do!
> 
> ...



So were you doing it solo or were you using company resources? It all sounds rather odd to me and you were not being particularly open about what was going on.


----------



## zim (Jun 13, 2018)

HarryFilm said:


> From what I understand, the DSP processing onboard is 20-bits per channel digitizing down to 16-bits per colour channel at 4:4:4/4:2:2 wavelet-based stills AND 4:4:4/4:2:2 INTERFRAME and INTRAFRAME encoded full-sensor downsampled 4k video at 60 fps!



Hey Harry, is that your codec sold to Canon? Hope not cause bad Canon will cripple all your good work and Mode dial will hate you for ever. :'(


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## unfocused (Jun 14, 2018)

HarryFilm said:


> unfocused said:
> 
> 
> > unfocused said:
> ...



Quit changing your story. Your original quote refers to a free software surprise you promised to unveil after you *claimed* you could not release your magic codec. You made it very clear that this surprise was independent of your magic codec and would be released as compensation for your deceiving everyone about the magic codec.

Clearly, you got nothing and now are trying to claim you never made such claims.


----------



## neuroanatomist (Jun 14, 2018)

unfocused said:


> I'd recommend just ignoring him. It's abundantly clear that he's fabricating all this bullish!t as a pathetic attempt to gain attention and notoriety, and responding to him merely plays into that and feeds his psychoses.


----------



## Generalized Specialist (Jun 14, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> No doubt. But Canon isn't losing market share, so the 'many' people you talk to aren't really relevant.



Where Canon is padding their numbers to get to the roughly 50% marketshare is in their low end Costco/Best Buy kits. Canon is turning into the Kia of the camera world.

Go out anywhere touristy and there is a sea of teenagers with a Rebel (and to be fair, Nikon 3000 series bodies) and kit lenses hanging around their neck, THAT'S the majority of your 50% market right there.


----------



## Generalized Specialist (Jun 14, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Yes, Sony was #1 for two months in one (large) country. Last year they were #2 for two months in another (large) country. And last year, Nikon was #1 in that latter country. For one month.
> 
> The rest of the time? Canon.



The fact that Sony has made inroads this quickly and is making even bigger strides this year says it all. When this years results are released next winter will Sony be the #1 brand for 3 or 4 or 5 months? The slo-mo Canon train wreck is happening. And Sony is doing that by pushing FF bodies and lenses. Canon? Rebels.

2 or 3 years ago we laughed (I was one of the laughing ones) when someone said Sony was going to be a top tier contender. Look at them now. A buyer would be crazy to dismiss a Sony offering if they were in the market. You couldn't say that those 2 or 3 years ago. Sony is being rewarded by pushing the envelope and giving buyers what they want. Canon? They gave us the M50 and the Rebel 4000D. The 4000D was released less than 4 months ago and it's already looooooong forgotten. How the mighty fall.


----------



## Generalized Specialist (Jun 14, 2018)

john kriegsmann said:


> It is beyond agonizing waiting for Canon to come up with a full frame mirrorless camera almost five years after Sony's full frame cameras hit the market. The only chance Canon has of penetrating that market is for the new full frame to accommodate EF lenses. Canon's evolution of native lenses for their cropped sensor mirrorless lenses has been something less than glacial. As Canon improves the capability of their M bodies they are making cheaper slower kit lenses. The original M had an adequate 18-55 mm f5.6 lens with a metal lens mount. The M5 kit lens is a cheaper lens with fiberglass lens mount and an F 6.3. Go figure. Canon you are embarrassing yourselves.



Exactly. Sony has moved so fast, faster than the Canon behemoth and beurocracy could even get out of its own way, let alone design, build, market or sell something. Canon has waited far too long and will pay the price. The A7iii and A7Riii and the upcoming A7s are all very hard for Canon to come out with something competitive and not only that, it goes against the entire Canon business philosophy. 

There is a HUGE difference in the way the two companies design their product and do business. Canon is old school - they will design it and you will buy it and you will be happy with that. Sony is the sleek fast moving we will build what you want and price it right. Sony is not afraid to throw any previous product under the bus to make that happen, Canon wouldn't ever even consider doing that.

With the exception of super tele's and maybe tilt shifts, Sony is already a complete and mature system. When Canon ever wakes up and releases something it will be infantile in comparison and they will have to build up the entire ecosystem. Talk about starting with a huge handicap! And to think, Canon could have squashed Sony years ago but they let them get to this point. Slo-motion train wreck. Canon is the new Kodak. So narrow focused to not compete against their own DSLR's they missed the boat completely and are falling more and more behind every month. Sad.


----------



## neuroanatomist (Jun 14, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> neuroanatomist said:
> 
> 
> > No doubt. But Canon isn't losing market share, so the 'many' people you talk to aren't really relevant.
> ...



Go to any professional sporting event and count the Sony cameras. You can use your fingers if that helps you count, one hand should be more than enough.


----------



## unfocused (Jun 14, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> I'd recommend just ignoring him. It's abundantly clear that he's fabricating all this bullish!t as a pathetic attempt to gain attention and notoriety, and responding to him merely plays into that and feeds his psychoses.



Oh, I know. I just want to remind people every chance I get that Harry has never programmed anything except the microwave in his mom's kitchen that he uses to cook his pizza rolls.


----------



## 3kramd5 (Jun 14, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> Go out anywhere touristy and there is a sea of teenagers with a Rebel (and to be fair, Nikon 3000 series bodies) and kit lenses hanging around their neck, THAT'S the majority of your 50% market right there.



I’d love to be a fly on the wall when you approach Canon leadership and paint this picture:

“All around the world you see canon cameras. Name me head of the camera business and I’ll right this unbearable wrong. Too long we’ve held this commanding lead of the widest market in the business. Under my vision, you’ll see more Sigma cameras in the wild than Canon.”

Job for life?


If you insist on a car analogy, Canon is probably more like Toyota: strong in the consumer market and the high end.


----------



## Aussie shooter (Jun 14, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> neuroanatomist said:
> 
> 
> > No doubt. But Canon isn't losing market share, so the 'many' people you talk to aren't really relevant.
> ...



Working on a tourist island off the coast of Cairns, Australia I get to see roughly 500-1000 tourists a day. most shoot with phones however many use dedicated cameras. Most of those who use cameras are a mix of smaller mirrorless and DSLR. Canons are the most represented in that group but I see plenty of Oly's, Sony's, Fujis etc. As for the higher end stuff. 80% is canon. 6d's, 5d 3's and 4's , a smattering of 1d's, lots of lenses with Pretty red rings on them. Sony FF mirrorless probably make up about 5% of the higher end stuff with Nikon and others making up the rest. Canon all but own(and definitely are targeting) the biggest group of buyers on the planet and I get to see evidence of that every single day. Canon do not base their decisions on what forum commenters in mature markets are saying. They are looking at the best growing market there is for consumer goods. I'll let you have a guess as to what that market is and then you will understand what canon are likely aiming at.


----------



## Mikehit (Jun 14, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> neuroanatomist said:
> 
> 
> > Yes, Sony was #1 for two months in one (large) country. Last year they were #2 for two months in another (large) country. And last year, Nikon was #1 in that latter country. For one month.
> ...



Sony have made inroads into one specific market - FF mirrorless. The role of a company is to make profits by selling units and the margin of each one is the profit. 
Yes, the Sony A73 is an excellent camera for the price but I think there are many looking at that and wondering how much they are making (or maybe even losing) on that. The 6D is part of the Canon catalogue that has the efficiencies of volume across the whole range (rebels to 1Dx2) but I am not sure you can say the same about Sony. 
Sony came in at that price because they needed to compete with the 6D2 - what happens when Canon release their APS-C mirrorless at an equivalent price? 

You mock the Rebel lines but you have to ask where is the Sony for newbies who have not got $2,000 USD. The fact is that Sony survive by pinching customers from Canon/Nikon because they do not have an introductory model to match the Rebels. And if you think Sony can go from distant 3rd to 1st in one year, you are in a fantasy.

The fact is that Japan and Asia is the biggest market for mirrorless and Sony are third behind Canon and Olympus. How does that match up with your fantasy?


----------



## fullstop (Jun 14, 2018)

Woody said:


> Generalized Specialist said:
> 
> 
> > Like I said, Canon is the new Kodak.
> ...



Going from analog/film photography to digital was the biggest step transferring imaging from 18th century tech into the 21st century. Similar to the control of fire for mankind.

Getting rid of mechanically moving elements - basically the 19th/early 20th century stuff in imaging gear - is akin to mankind inventing the wheel. Finally we get "thru the lens" autofocus, auto-metering and wysiwg viewfinders without needing any of the follwing: no more clunky mirrors, submirrors, heavy prisms, dislocated AF-systems out of plane of focus of image. 

Why is mirrorless an total win? 

* vibration-free operation [as soon as mech shutters are finally eliminated]
* absolutely silent operation
* no more back-/front focus issues
* WYSIWIG viewfinder
* no lubricants/oil splatters [ (c) Nikon], no grit/abrasive particles from mech movement in camera settling on sensor 
* easy to wheatherseal, robust, solid state cameras
* significantly lower manufacturing cost - 100% robotic assembly possible, much simpler calibration and QC 
* potentially (!) lower cost of cameras - if we, the customers - stand up and don't allow manufacturers to just pocket all of the cost savings themselves / for shareholders
* significantly smaller & lighter cameras 
* significantly smaller lenses in most commonly used focal length range [about 20 to 85 mm FL range] - if mount parameters [FFD, throat width] are chosen wisely and matched to image circle [i.e. not using mounts designed for APS-C for FF sensors] 

plus a few more advantages that all make a difference every time we pick up a camera, lug it around and with potentially every image we take.


----------



## Mikehit (Jun 14, 2018)

fullstop said:


> Getting rid of mechanically moving elements - basically the 19th/early 20th century stuff in imaging gear - is akin to mankind inventing the wheel.



Wow! hyperbole or what...?

Back-front focus issues - as soon as you put phase detect on the sensor you introduce a source of focus errors which is precisely why Olympus have put micro adjust on the E-M1Mkii. Why do you keep spouting this nonsense?
Easy to weather seal? Why is it easier than DSLR and why is it an advantage of mirrorless? And if it is easier why have Sony not mastered it yet? More nonsense
'Significantly lower manufacturing cost - more nonsense. What do you mean by 'significant'? Correction....apart from your own innate fanstasies what evidence do you have about 'significant'?
The 'significantly lower manufacturing costs then becomes 'potentially lower camera prices'. Cameras are commodities and manufacturing price will be reflected in street price
'Significantly smaller and lighter' - not everyone wants that

As for 'absolutely silent operation' and 'vibration free' you are talking about things not yet guaranteed. Both rely on not using the shutter which means global electronic shutter which does not yet exist in this range of cameras. So why are you bringing whose up as a 'win'? You may as well say 'when DSLRs have a hybrid OVF/EVF then you can have the same advantages.


----------



## fullstop (Jun 14, 2018)

Canon being so "highly innovative" - why should their FF mirrorless cams not come with electronic global shutter?

they'd then have a true USP over Sony. 100% vibration-free, 100% silent (by default, unless user activates any painful electronic noise of their own poor taste and choice), very compact, no moving parts inside, very robust, very compact (by default, unless users put all sorts of grips, rigs or cages on it to make it as big as desired) and less expensive than Sony products. Canon wins, Sony loses.


----------



## neuroanatomist (Jun 14, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> fullstop said:
> 
> 
> > Getting rid of mechanically moving elements - basically the 19th/early 20th century stuff in imaging gear - is akin to mankind inventing the wheel.
> ...



I have a better analogy. 

Film to digital is like the founding of photography forums on the internet, where we went from conversations with locals at photo clubs to global interaction and sharing. 

DSLR to mirrorless is akin to banning AvTvM from CR forums – a minor upgrade to one internet photography forum, but really had no meaningful or lasting effect on the content or output of the forum. 

;D


----------



## Kit. (Jun 14, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> Where Canon is padding their numbers to get to the roughly 50% marketshare is in their low end Costco/Best Buy kits. Canon is turning into the Kia of the camera world.


So, in your reality Kia owns 50% of automotive market?



Generalized Specialist said:


> Go out anywhere touristy and there is a sea of teenagers with a Rebel (and to be fair, Nikon 3000 series bodies) and kit lenses hanging around their neck, THAT'S the majority of your 50% market right there.


As if it were a bad thing?

It is very good for Canon (as well as for existing Canon users) that millions of teenagers are getting into Canon camera ergonomics, especially if Canon makes profits from that.



Generalized Specialist said:


> The fact that Sony has made inroads this quickly


So, in your reality Sony did not acquire its ILC business from Konica Minolta 12 years ago? And Minolta did not have about the same market positioning and market share in ILC business of 1990s as Sony has now?


----------



## BillB (Jun 14, 2018)

fullstop said:


> Canon being so "highly innovative" - why should their FF mirrorless cams not come with electronic global shutter?
> 
> they'd then have a true USP over Sony. 100% vibration-free, 100% silent (by default, unless user activates any painful electronic noise of their own poor taste and choice), very compact, no moving parts inside, very robust, very compact (by default, unless users put all sorts of grips, rigs or cages on it to make it as big as desired) and less expensive than Sony products. Canon wins, Sony loses.



I take it that you question is rhetorical, and the point is to elaborate on the kind of camera that you think Canon should build, as you have many times before.


----------



## fullstop (Jun 14, 2018)

i am sure that back in the day, when some smart folks invented the wheel, there were less smart folk standing around saying "what's it good for? why ould we not continue to just carry things on our backs and ride our oxen and horses to go places. those are good, proven mobility solutions. that darn newfangled wheel is just a fad, that will go away soon. a solution to a problem to be found. if god had wanted us to use wheels, we would have been born with them, instead of legs." yada yada ... let's just call them apologists! 

and when the first photographs were taken all them portrait, landscape and still-life painters surely said: "not needed. we can do it way better!" ...


----------



## Mikehit (Jun 14, 2018)

fullstop said:


> Canon being so "highly innovative" - why should their FF mirrorless cams not come with electronic global shutter?
> 
> they'd then have a true USP over Sony. 100% vibration-free, 100% silent (by default, unless user activates any painful electronic noise of their own poor taste and choice), very compact, no moving parts inside, very robust, very compact (by default, unless users put all sorts of grips, rigs or cages on it to make it as big as desired) and less expensive than Sony products. Canon wins, Sony loses.



Maybe because no-one has yet developed one that is viable for MFT/APS-C/FF ?
Why do you ask such dumb questions? It merely shows many of your critcisms arise out of ignorance of reality rather any informed comment.


----------



## Kit. (Jun 14, 2018)

fullstop said:


> Canon being so "highly innovative" - why should their FF mirrorless cams not come with electronic global shutter?


Electronic global shutter has its drawbacks. In particular:

1. Heat generation (and dissipation).
2. Frame rate to shutter speed ratio for video.
3. Cost.


----------



## Mikehit (Jun 14, 2018)

fullstop said:


> i am sure that back in the day, when some smart folks invented the wheel, there were less smart folk standing around saying "what's it good for? why ould we not continue to just carry things on our backs and ride our oxen and horses to go places. those are good, proven mobility solutions.



That pretty much happened in Tibet. 
Other areas caught onto the practical advantages of the wheel. 
So yes, it did actually happen. 

It is called _recutio ab absurdum_

Any more irrelevant analogies?


----------



## neuroanatomist (Jun 14, 2018)

Back in the day, when the wheel was invented...there was that one guy standing there with his head trapped in his own personal alternate reality, thinking that he and only he knew how to make the best wheel despite being totally inept at actually building anything. In his private mental universe, he believed millions of his fellow cavemen would trade good hides and meat for the kind of wheel he wanted...but of course, he had no evidence to back up his fanciful imaginings. Then, when wheels finally became available, he refused to buy one because some were too big and others had 17% too few spokes. Because no one made his perfect wheel, apparently the poor sap ended up having to carry his belongings on his back until he was eaten by a sabertooth cat.


----------



## BillB (Jun 14, 2018)

fullstop said:


> i am sure that back in the day, when some smart folks invented the wheel, there were less smart folk standing around saying "what's it good for? why ould we not continue to just carry things on our backs and ride our oxen and horses to go places. those are good, proven mobility solutions. that darn newfangled wheel is just a fad, that will go away soon. a solution to a problem to be found. if god had wanted us to use wheels, we would have been born with them, instead of legs." yada yada ... let's just call them apologists!
> 
> and when the first photographs were taken all them portrait, landscape and still-life painters surely said: "not needed. we can do it way better!" ...



So now we have fantasy history to go along with fantasy camera designs and imaginary numbers. 

Maybe it's time to lighten up. It's only been in the last few years that large high quality color photographic prints have been a practical and affordable possibility for non commercial purposes. For years, artists have used small photographs as an aid in creating lrealistic paintings. A book has been published that compares Norman Rockwell paintings to photographs he used in making them.


----------



## scyrene (Jun 14, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> neuroanatomist said:
> 
> 
> > No doubt. But Canon isn't losing market share, so the 'many' people you talk to aren't really relevant.
> ...



So wait, some sales are more equal than others? What does it matter which cameras constitute the bulk of their sales? Are Leica more valid as a company to you for only selling high-end (or at least high-price) goods? Don't be a snob. Most people can't afford $2k+ FF cameras, and most people who can still wouldn't consider spending that. Lower end goods will always constitute the majority of most markets. Providing them is just good business.

And as others have pointed out, Canon *also* provides for the top end, so it's not clear what point you're making.

All that is clear from your later replies that you have some weird love for Sony (or maybe you're a sockpuppet). Fine, but if you believe your own rhetoric then that's just sad. Canon and Sony are both huge corporations trying to make as much money as possible. They have slightly different approaches, but pretending one is amazing and loves its customers and the other treats them with contempt shows a great deal of naivety.


----------



## scyrene (Jun 14, 2018)

fullstop said:


> Woody said:
> 
> 
> > Generalized Specialist said:
> ...



So you ARE AvTvM! Why bother creating a new account? At least I now know to mute you.


----------



## BillB (Jun 14, 2018)

I wonder what the marginal curiousity curve looks like for rants about fantasy camera designs. Seems likely that it is asymtotic with zero for most people above a certain number, which will of course vary from person to person. Or maybe it actually hits zero eventually for most of us. More quickly for some than for others. All sorts of questions to explore. But most likely not an endless number.


----------



## Generalized Specialist (Jun 14, 2018)

Kit. said:


> Generalized Specialist said:
> 
> 
> > Where Canon is padding their numbers to get to the roughly 50% marketshare is in their low end Costco/Best Buy kits. Canon is turning into the Kia of the camera world.
> ...



You're right, Kia was a bad example. I used Kia as it also has a market built of low priced products that they want to flood the market with.

A more apt comparison would be GM. A couple of flagship products but the vast majority of what they market/sell is just badged engineered/share the parts bin soon to be forgotten 'meh' vehicles.


----------



## Orangutan (Jun 14, 2018)

fullstop said:


> Why is mirrorless an total win?
> 
> <snip>



All this sounds great. However, until it actually outperforms DSLR's for the full range of user needs, these things don't matter. Walking has a long list of advantages over mechanical transport, but there are important areas where walking simply doesn't outperform, so we still have mechanical transport.

I'll grant you that "some day" mirrorless will hit the mark for total parity, but it's not today, and probably not for at least a few more years.


----------



## 3kramd5 (Jun 14, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> fullstop said:
> 
> 
> > Canon being so "highly innovative" - why should their FF mirrorless cams not come with electronic global shutter?
> ...



That is incorrect, but canon doesn’t use externally supplied sensors in its big cameras..


----------



## BillB (Jun 14, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> Kit. said:
> 
> 
> > Generalized Specialist said:
> ...



Well, Sony has turned out some "meh" products too, some of which were FF mirrorless cameras that turned out to be little better than beta releases. Remember those? Sony tried to con people into thinking they were any good, and some of the internet buzzards helped them out.

If Canon has flagship products, what are your complaining about? You don't have to buy what you don't like.


----------



## Mr1Dx (Jun 14, 2018)

Orangutan said:


> fullstop said:
> 
> 
> > Why is mirrorless an total win?
> ...



3-4yrs ago, majority poeple I see on safari trips would carry 1dx/5dr/5d3 and 5d4 + 200-400, 500 and or 600mm. 

What I saw in my last 2 trips in 2018, ratio seems to be 2:1 DSLR Vs mirrorless. All mirrorless users were Sony A7r III and A9 + native 100-400, native 70-200. 

Yes, mirrorless still have room to improve in future. At this moment 2018, I simply do not see what DSLR can do that Sony a7r III/A9 can't. The 100% silent shooting on my A9 is something I'll treasure it on my safari trip. 

My old 1dx now retired and she enjoys staying home.


----------



## 3kramd5 (Jun 14, 2018)

Mr1Dx said:


> At this moment 2018, I simply do not see what DSLR can do that Sony a7r III/A9 can't.



*Show you through the lens without you having to look at an illuminated screen (and without the camera having to exercize all the readout electronics, image processing pipe, and aforementioned screen). Sometimes the screen is better, but not always (e.g. extended use)
*Use purpose-built sensors for metering and focus acquisition rather than sensors designed and filtered for image capture with color reproduction. Sometimes on-sensor is better, but not always.

I have a rental a7riii coming in this weekend. It should be fun to compare it to the A7Rii (although I sold that quite a while ago, I expect I’ll be able to remember the frustrations and identify improvements).


----------



## Kit. (Jun 14, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> A more apt comparison would be GM.


So, one of the most advanced players (if not _the_ most advanced player) when it comes to self-driving cars?



Generalized Specialist said:


> A couple of flagship products but the vast majority of what they market/sell is just badged engineered/share the parts bin soon to be forgotten 'meh' vehicles.


Is it bad if I use a car as a workhorse and not as a penis extender?


----------



## fullstop (Jun 14, 2018)

Orangutan said:


> fullstop said:
> 
> 
> > Why is mirrorless an total win?
> ...



that's were I see things differently. Yes, currently available mirrorless cameras today are not yet "solid state" with all the benefits i listed. But the latest "top-level" FF mirrorless camera - Sony A9 - objectively outperforms Canon EOS 1DX-II and Nikon D5 in a number of areas [e.g. sensor/resolution, 20 fps continuous shooting, eye tracking AF, etc.] and is in no aspect objectively behind those top level DSLRs - except shot reach per battery charge. 

Everything else is subjective preferences - which are perfectly fine to have, but not "objectively worse", eg some people prefer OVFs over a WYSIWIG EVF without blackout. Some people - mainly those who frequently use large lenses - prefer a chunkier grip/bigger camera. Some people also love to hear a good, solid, mechanical mirrorslap and shutter actuation. But - personal preferences. Nothing to do with "outperform".


----------



## ahsanford (Jun 14, 2018)

fullstop said:


> that's were I see things differently. Yes, currently available mirrorless cameras today are not yet "solid state" with all the benefits i listed. But the latest "top-level" FF mirrorless camera - Sony A9 - objectively outperforms Canon EOS 1DX-II and Nikon D5 in a number of areas [e.g. sensor/resolution, 20 fps continuous shooting, eye tracking AF, etc.] and is in no aspect objectively behind those top level DSLRs - except shot reach per battery charge.
> 
> Everything else is subjective preferences - which are perfectly fine to have, but not "objectively worse", eg some people prefer OVFs over a WYSIWIG EVF without blackout. Some people - mainly those who frequently use large lenses - prefer a chunkier grip/bigger camera. Some people also love to hear a good, solid, mechanical mirrorslap and shutter actuation. But - personal preferences. Nothing to do with "outperform".



I seem recall that the A9 electronic shutter that is mandatory to shoot faster than 5 fps is a clear step back for some things that are not subjective -- I've heard that panning can lead to a jello effect and stadium/arena lighting can lead to nasty unfixable banding in some shots.

True? Has anyone used the A9 and can comment on that? I remember Jared Polin putting something out that screamed 'we have a problem here' that was pretty hotly debated. I wasn't sure how that landed.

- A


----------



## Kit. (Jun 14, 2018)

fullstop said:


> that's were I see things differently. Yes, currently available mirrorless cameras today are not yet "solid state" with all the benefits i listed. But the latest "top-level" FF mirrorless camera - Sony A9 - objectively outperforms Canon EOS 1DX-II and Nikon D5 in a number of areas [e.g. sensor/resolution, 20 fps continuous shooting, eye tracking AF, etc.] and is in no aspect objectively behind those top level DSLRs - except shot reach per battery charge.


How about startup time, for example?


----------



## fullstop (Jun 14, 2018)

Ok yes, agreed - still some "rough edges" remaining. But essentially we have reached "full parity" between DSLRs and mirrorless cameras. 

Problem today is not "technical", but "marketing". Lots of DSLRs for sale but only limited choice of mirrorless cameras, especially only 4 brands of APS-C mirrorless ILCs - Canon, Fujifilm, Leica, Sony (or missing someone?) and only 2 brands for FF-sensored [Leica, Sony]. 

That sucks. At least subjectively for me. And maybe for a few others too. LOL.


----------



## ahsanford (Jun 14, 2018)

fullstop said:


> Ok yes, agreed - still some "rough edges" remaining. But essentially we have reached "full parity" between DSLRs and mirrorless cameras.



Let me know when 'full parity' gets to double digit percentages of the 1DX2/D5-level userbase.

- A


----------



## Kit. (Jun 14, 2018)

Personally, I don't see a problem.

When Live View becomes at least as good as mirror slapping, the mirror will die out due to production cost reasons alone.


----------



## Mikehit (Jun 14, 2018)

fullstop said:


> that's were I see things differently. Yes, currently available mirrorless cameras today are not yet "solid state" with all the benefits i listed. But the latest "top-level" FF mirrorless camera - Sony A9 - objectively outperforms Canon EOS 1DX-II and Nikon D5 in a number of areas [e.g. sensor/resolution, 20 fps continuous shooting, eye tracking AF, etc.] and is in no aspect objectively behind those top level DSLRs - except shot reach per battery charge.
> 
> Everything else is subjective preferences - which are perfectly fine to have, but not "objectively worse", eg some people prefer OVFs over a WYSIWIG EVF without blackout. Some people - mainly those who frequently use large lenses - prefer a chunkier grip/bigger camera. Some people also love to hear a good, solid, mechanical mirrorslap and shutter actuation. But - personal preferences. Nothing to do with "outperform".



If I recall correctly, the 20fps is only available with focus fixed on the first shot. Fat lot of good for birds in flight....or any other movement for that matter. 
And focus tracking is not yet as good as 1Dx2/D5.

So when you say " is in no aspect objectively behind those top level DSLRs" what did you mean exactly? 

Then again, given that you admit these uses are not ones you are interested in, how would you possibly know what is expected when people buy these cameras?


----------



## fullstop (Jun 15, 2018)

BIF, sports and wildlife shooters are small minority niches. For those users (top level) DSLRs may still hold some advantages. For the vast majority of cameras and camera users all the way up to and including EOS 5D 4 level, mirrorless cameras already outperform DSLRs. 

But it does not matter what i write. You will see soon enough how mirrorless takes over and DSLRs will become as exotic and small a niche as film shooters today are.


----------



## 3kramd5 (Jun 15, 2018)

fullstop said:


> BIF, sports and wildlife shooters are small minority niches. For those users (top level) DSLRs may still hold some advantages. For the vast majority of cameras and camera users all the way up to and including EOS 5D 4 level, mirrorless cameras already outperform DSLRs.
> 
> But it does not matter what i write. You will see soon enough how mirrorless takes over and DSLRs will become as exotic and small a niche as film shooters today are.



DLSR and MILC are niches within a niche.


----------



## fullstop (Jun 15, 2018)

3kramd5 said:


> fullstop said:
> 
> 
> > BIF, sports and wildlife shooters are small minority niches. For those users (top level) DSLRs may still hold some advantages. For the vast majority of cameras and camera users all the way up to and including EOS 5D 4 level, mirrorless cameras already outperform DSLRs.
> ...



yes. And the uses so dear to many here are extra small sub-niches.


----------



## Isaacheus (Jun 15, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> fullstop said:
> 
> 
> > that's were I see things differently. Yes, currently available mirrorless cameras today are not yet "solid state" with all the benefits i listed. But the latest "top-level" FF mirrorless camera - Sony A9 - objectively outperforms Canon EOS 1DX-II and Nikon D5 in a number of areas [e.g. sensor/resolution, 20 fps continuous shooting, eye tracking AF, etc.] and is in no aspect objectively behind those top level DSLRs - except shot reach per battery charge.
> ...



Can't speak to the tracking performance vs canon/Nikon, but I was under the impression the a9 can af at 20 fps, but it's dependent on which lens - the top level ones can while many of the cheaper options are limited to 15fps?

I had a brief play around with an a9 and 100-400 gm when they were first introduced and that combo seemed to track at full speed


----------



## 3kramd5 (Jun 15, 2018)

fullstop said:


> 3kramd5 said:
> 
> 
> > fullstop said:
> ...



No doubt. 135 format and wide aperture lenses to cover that format probably lead that charge for nicheniche.


----------



## neuroanatomist (Jun 15, 2018)

fullstop said:


> soon



You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.


----------



## 3kramd5 (Jun 15, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> fullstop said:
> 
> 
> > soon
> ...



Soon isna relative term. In this case it’s relative to when harry film sells a codec.


----------



## Ozarker (Jun 15, 2018)

HarryFilm said:


> Here's what's coming next from my MULTIPLE Euro-sources:
> 
> I have access to corporate and other intelligence systems that have been rather reliable for me in the past. I don't ask for nor discuss personal identification with my sources since they want to keep themselves anonymous, but I can say that their technical and educational credentials are at such a high-level that they CANNOT be dismissed easily! (i.e. I can't really argue with actual CPU/GPU/DSP chip designers!)
> 
> ...



Harry, go get a Brazilian as you try to wax insider.


----------



## Ozarker (Jun 15, 2018)

HarryFilm said:


> unfocused said:
> 
> 
> > unfocused said:
> ...



Harry, I take a pretty good antipsychotic. Doesn't always work it's magic, but it may help you out a little. I'll give you some if you'd like.


----------



## Ozarker (Jun 15, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> neuroanatomist said:
> 
> 
> > No doubt. But Canon isn't losing market share, so the 'many' people you talk to aren't really relevant.
> ...



No $ hit? Wow. Who'd a thunk it. Imagine that. The budget end of the spectrum (where the most people live) happens to represent the largest market share and the largest profit center. Wow. Didn't take a focus group to figure that out, now did it? Everybody knows the truth is revealed at large sporting events where Sony is seen along the sidelines far more often than any other brand. : : :


----------



## Ozarker (Jun 15, 2018)

Generalized Specialist said:


> neuroanatomist said:
> 
> 
> > Yes, Sony was #1 for two months in one (large) country. Last year they were #2 for two months in another (large) country. And last year, Nikon was #1 in that latter country. For one month.
> ...



Yes. Sony is making inroads. People are falling all over themselves to get a Sony. Canon is *******.


----------



## Ozarker (Jun 15, 2018)

unfocused said:


> neuroanatomist said:
> 
> 
> > I'd recommend just ignoring him. It's abundantly clear that he's fabricating all this bullish!t as a pathetic attempt to gain attention and notoriety, and responding to him merely plays into that and feeds his psychoses.
> ...



Kitchen? Ha! He's been locked in the basement for years.


----------



## Ozarker (Jun 15, 2018)

fullstop said:


> i am sure that back in the day, when some smart folks invented the wheel, there were less smart folk standing around saying "what's it good for? why ould we not continue to just carry things on our backs and ride our oxen and horses to go places. those are good, proven mobility solutions. that darn newfangled wheel is just a fad, that will go away soon. a solution to a problem to be found. if god had wanted us to use wheels, we would have been born with them, instead of legs." yada yada ... let's just call them apologists!
> 
> and when the first photographs were taken all them portrait, landscape and still-life painters surely said: "not needed. we can do it way better!" ...



Comparing MILC to the invention of the wheel. : : :


----------



## Mikehit (Jun 15, 2018)

fullstop said:


> BIF, sports and wildlife shooters are small minority niches. For those users (top level) DSLRs may still hold some advantages. For the vast majority of cameras and camera users all the way up to and including EOS 5D 4 level, mirrorless cameras already outperform DSLRs.
> 
> But it does not matter what i write. You will see soon enough how mirrorless takes over and DSLRs will become as exotic and small a niche as film shooters today are.



So having compared Sony to top level DSLRs and had someone point out the supposed superiority does not exist, you ow change tack and find another argument to use. 

Again....no-one is denying that mirrorless will supplant DSLRs - I have asked before for such a quote but you have been unable to present one. What people are arguing are your fatuous claims about the urgency with which Canon needs to do it and your equally fatuous claims that Sony mirrorless are already superior to Canon DSLRs in context of the market as a whole.


----------



## unfocused (Jun 15, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> Again....no-one is denying that mirrorless will supplant DSLRs...



There might be someone. 

[quote author=DSLR] 
Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated [/quote]
It's way too early to assume that DSLRs are going away. They still have a lot of things going for them and I expect they will outlive me. 

Mirrorless cameras _might_ be the wave of the future, but they might also be a passing fancy. Most likely in my opinion is that the DSLR's basic design shape and form will remain and mirrorless functions and features will be incorporated into the basic design. 

There is *nothing* about mirrorless that is so compelling that it makes the demise of DSLRs a certainty.


----------



## Durf (Jun 15, 2018)

unfocused said:


> Mikehit said:
> 
> 
> > Again....no-one is denying that mirrorless will supplant DSLRs...
> ...


It's way too early to assume that DSLRs are going away. They still have a lot of things going for them and I expect they will outlive me. 

Mirrorless cameras _might_ be the wave of the future, but they might also be a passing fancy. Most likely in my opinion is that the DSLR's basic design shape and form will remain and mirrorless functions and features will be incorporated into the basic design. 

There is *nothing* about mirrorless that is so compelling that it makes the demise of DSLRs a certainty.
[/quote]

I totally agree; Mirrorless is here to stay for sure but I think the frenzy we are seeing is somewhat a trend and will somewhat pass and fade away a bit. The big camera companies will all have both their mirrorless and DSLR lines for many years to come in my opinion.

I also believe many people that switched to mirrorless systems will return back to using DSLR systems.....and some never will go back to DSLR's. (different strokes for different folk's). 

DSLR's will live on and surely out live me....

But, who knows? there may be some type of new camera invented in the future that could actually compete and or threaten to replace both the Mirrorless and DSLR's.

Personal for me and what I do, I'll keep using DSLR's, I really have no desire for the mirrorless systems nor do I feel the overwhelming excitement about them so many are displaying.


----------



## Mikehit (Jun 15, 2018)

unfocused said:


> Mikehit said:
> 
> 
> > Again....no-one is denying that mirrorless will supplant DSLRs...
> ...


It's way too early to assume that DSLRs are going away. They still have a lot of things going for them and I expect they will outlive me. 

Mirrorless cameras _might_ be the wave of the future, but they might also be a passing fancy. Most likely in my opinion is that the DSLR's basic design shape and form will remain and mirrorless functions and features will be incorporated into the basic design. 

There is *nothing* about mirrorless that is so compelling that it makes the demise of DSLRs a certainty.
[/quote]

Oh, I agree that DSLRs will still be here, but by 'supplant' I was referring to the total market and how the greater simplicity of manufacturer, theoretical lower cost of manufacturing and the fancy gizmos possible with mirrorless should give them a distinct advantage. How large a market share DSLR will keep hold of is an great unknown, but I do believe that eventually mirrorless will get the largest share of the ILC market. But we are not there yet and DSLRs will have healthy life for a good few years.


----------



## jayphotoworks (Jun 15, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> unfocused said:
> 
> 
> > Mikehit said:
> ...



Oh, I agree that DSLRs will still be here, but by 'supplant' I was referring to the total market and how the greater simplicity of manufacturer, theoretical lower cost of manufacturing and the fancy gizmos possible with mirrorless should give them a distinct advantage. How large a market share DSLR will keep hold of is an great unknown, but I do believe that eventually mirrorless will get the largest share of the ILC market. But we are not there yet and DSLRs will have healthy life for a good few years.
[/quote]

The interesting part about this, is that once Canon gets a stronger foothold in the MILC market, via expanding their consumer models with some prosumer and flagship models for pros and enthusiasts, I'm sure they will themselves be a major influence in ushering out the DSLR era.


----------



## ahsanford (Jun 15, 2018)

unfocused said:


> There is *nothing* about mirrorless that is so compelling that it makes the demise of DSLRs a certainty.



SLRs will always exist, but not at all price points. I think 1D and 5D rigs will be available for a very long time.

But I think Rebel SLRs are a dead man walking (albeit very slowly). With an 18-55 (or 15-45 if you like) crop collapsing lens, you can actually create a smaller rig. And here's the key bit: the habitual FF SLR veteran riposte of 'it's only a tinier rig with a handful of lenses' goes out the window _when it's the only lens you'll ever own_. See picture -- that's a pretty easy value proposition to make for someone's first ILC.

I eventually see a mirrorless Rebel coming out alongside a Rebel SLR (or a merging of the M line and the Rebel line), and then one day, poof: the next generation of Rebels doesn't have mirrors anymore.

- A


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## Kit. (Jun 15, 2018)

If it's the only lens you'll ever own, you don't need ILC.

I don't expect mirror-slappers to exist forever (I don't even expect _humans_ to exist forever), but what I could really expect is SLRs returning back to where they were in the film era. Which means FF SLR camera with the current APS-C SLR's size, weight and price.


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## ahsanford (Jun 15, 2018)

Kit. said:


> If it's the only lens you'll ever own, you don't need ILC.



Because the market is flooded competitively priced APS-C fixed lens offerings. 

(You're right, of course, this is the industry's doing.)

- A


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## unfocused (Jun 15, 2018)

Kit. said:


> If it's the only lens you'll ever own, you don't need ILC.
> 
> I don't expect mirror-slappers to exist forever (I don't even expect _humans_ to exist forever), but what I could really expect is SLRs returning back to where they were in the film era. Which means FF SLR camera with the current APS-C SLR's size, weight and price.



I agree. Manufacturers have been super-sizing DSLRs for years. If smaller size is what the market wants, we can expect that DSLRs will shrink.


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## Kit. (Jun 15, 2018)

ahsanford said:


> Kit. said:
> 
> 
> > If it's the only lens you'll ever own, you don't need ILC.
> ...


The APS itself was an abomination. Does anyone still remember the good old Olympus Stylus Epic and Olympus Stylus Zoom Wide 80?


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## Gnocchi (Jun 15, 2018)

Maybe canon will just skip ff mirrorless and build a medium format system !!


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## slclick (Jun 16, 2018)

Gnocchi said:


> Maybe canon will just skip ff mirrorless and build a medium format system !!




If it does I hope it comes with a 50mm lens, hahahahahahahaha


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## RGF (Jun 18, 2018)

Like to see canon's update to the 5D M4 following Nikon's D850 announcement. The D850 is a stellar camera, it raises the bar.


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## ahsanford (Jun 18, 2018)

RGF said:


> Like to see canon's update to the 5D M4 following Nikon's D850 announcement. The D850 is a stellar camera, it raises the bar.



Curious to see if Canon keeps the 'all-arounder' and 'high res' 5D lines separate, or if they follow suit with Nikon and just make the 5DS2 the top of line supercamera that really does it all.

My money's on the former, but folks may still interpret the detail camera as being top of the line if it slides in at (say) 60 MP x 6 fps (70 x 5, 50 x 7, etc.). See my ramblings on 7 fps with the 5D4 really muddying the waters between the 5D4 and 5DS2.

- A


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