# Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs



## Dylan777 (Nov 29, 2013)

http://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/leica-ceo-syas-not-sure-dslr-will-still-be-alive-in-10-years-no-way-we-go-mft/

I better enjoy my recent purchase Canon 300mm f2.8 IS II before my DSLR dies ;D

I'm not sure how they going to make 24-70 f2.8, 85mm f1.4, 135mm f2, 70-200 f2.8, 300mm f2.8 list goes on...small enough to go with mirrorless body.


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## Eldar (Nov 29, 2013)

Dylan777 said:


> http://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/leica-ceo-syas-not-sure-dslr-will-still-be-alive-in-10-years-no-way-we-go-mft/
> 
> I better enjoy my recent purchase Canon 300mm f2.8 IS II before my DSLR dies ;D
> 
> I'm not sure how they going to make 24-70 f2.8, 85mm f1.4, 135mm f2, 70-200 f2.8, 300mm f2.8 list goes on...small enough to go with mirrorless body.


They will make a mirror less body to go with the lenses


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## Rienzphotoz (Nov 29, 2013)

Dylan777 said:


> http://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/leica-ceo-syas-not-sure-dslr-will-still-be-alive-in-10-years-no-way-we-go-mft/
> 
> I better enjoy my recent purchase Canon 300mm f2.8 IS II before my DSLR dies ;D
> 
> I'm not sure how they going to make 24-70 f2.8, 85mm f1.4, 135mm f2, 70-200 f2.8, 300mm f2.8 list goes on...small enough to go with mirrorless body.


I'm willing to wager my salary (against against Leica CEO's salary ;D) that DSLR's will be around a lot longer than 10 years.


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## verysimplejason (Nov 29, 2013)

Rienzphotoz said:


> Dylan777 said:
> 
> 
> > http://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/leica-ceo-syas-not-sure-dslr-will-still-be-alive-in-10-years-no-way-we-go-mft/
> ...



Leica CEO is still hallucinating that AF is just a new technology and they will be the first one to do it.


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## Rienzphotoz (Nov 29, 2013)

verysimplejason said:


> Rienzphotoz said:
> 
> 
> > Dylan777 said:
> ...


 ;D


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Nov 29, 2013)

I did not read the article, but in 10 years, I would hope that technology has advanced enough to eliminate the need for the reflex mirror, so that we have mirrorless cameras (which are not DSLR's).

I believe that all the manufacturers are working on doing this and have a list of critical items that need to be addressed for it to happen. We can see some of the results with the first generation double pixel technology, and the newer EVO's. Its merely a question as to when the point will be reached where a reflex design is no longer necessary to get high end performance.


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## verysimplejason (Nov 30, 2013)

Mt Spokane Photography said:


> I did not read the article, but in 10 years, I would hope that technology has advanced enough to eliminate the need for the reflex mirror, so that we have mirrorless cameras (which are not DSLR's).
> 
> I believe that all the manufacturers are working on doing this and have a list of critical items that need to be addressed for it to happen. We can see some of the results with the first generation double pixel technology, and the newer EVO's. Its merely a question as to when the point will be reached where a reflex design is no longer necessary to get high end performance.



I think the evolution of the EVF will pretty much dictate on whether the mirror will go or not. As of now, I still can't imagine the OVF replaced by an EVF. The lag and horrible low-light noise are still the weakest links for an EVF. If they fix these with an unnoticeable refresh and much better low-light performing screen, then I think we'll finally be rid of the mirror.


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## Don Haines (Nov 30, 2013)

Mt Spokane Photography said:


> I did not read the article, but in 10 years, I would hope that technology has advanced enough to eliminate the need for the reflex mirror, so that we have mirrorless cameras (which are not DSLR's).
> 
> I believe that all the manufacturers are working on doing this and have a list of critical items that need to be addressed for it to happen. We can see some of the results with the first generation double pixel technology, and the newer EVO's. Its merely a question as to when the point will be reached where a reflex design is no longer necessary to get high end performance.



I expect that the 7D2 will be my last DSLR..... By the time I am ready to upgrade from it, I expect that mirror less will be an upgrade....right now it's just the EVF that's holding things back, and they are getting close....


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## RLPhoto (Nov 30, 2013)

The day mirrorless replaces DSLRs for good is the day the 135mm F/1.8L IS is released.


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## zim (Nov 30, 2013)

Well I'll hold out until they start making retro DSLR s, preferably in white..... Oh wait : ;D


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## Albi86 (Nov 30, 2013)

Mt Spokane Photography said:


> I did not read the article, but in 10 years, I would hope that technology has advanced enough to eliminate the need for the reflex mirror, so that we have mirrorless cameras (which are not DSLR's).
> 
> I believe that all the manufacturers are working on doing this and have a list of critical items that need to be addressed for it to happen. We can see some of the results with the first generation double pixel technology, and the newer EVO's. Its merely a question as to when the point will be reached where a reflex design is no longer necessary to get high end performance.



+1

And except for AF speed and fps, the a7 is the proof that we are already there.


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## Marsu42 (Nov 30, 2013)

Mt Spokane Photography said:


> I did not read the article, but in 10 years, I would hope that technology has advanced enough to eliminate the need for the reflex mirror, so that we have mirrorless cameras (which are not DSLR's).



I'm pretty sure Canon agrees with this assessment, that's why they're putting r&d into on-sensor af performance and tend to recycle their phase af modules no matter what Nikon does.


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## Albi86 (Nov 30, 2013)

Marsu42 said:


> Mt Spokane Photography said:
> 
> 
> > I did not read the article, but in 10 years, I would hope that technology has advanced enough to eliminate the need for the reflex mirror, so that we have mirrorless cameras (which are not DSLR's).
> ...



It depends on whether Canon and Nikon realize that they're not competing only with each other any more. They have been passing the ball between each other and set the tune for everyone to dance to, but little by little other manufacturers have gone the right way: instead of competing with them, they made their own game.

They arrived late at the mirrorless party. Nikon went with the 1" system that sold well at the beginning, but eventually lost the long term competition. The EOS-M has never really taken off. 

Now they have to play catching up again. I don't know if DSLR will be dead in 10 years, but it is possible that they will become a niche market dependent on specialized lenses. It seems reasonable to me, looking at reviews of the a7 pair, that in a few years from now the reasons to buy a DSLR might be very few.


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## kaihp (Dec 1, 2013)

Personally, I don't think whether DSLR is around in 10 years matters that much. If DSLR is dead, then it's because something superior has replaced it.

But what I think we can be pretty sure of, is that in 10 years there will still be bodies/sensors that can take EF lenses.

We as Canon's customers have far too much invested in EF lenses to be interested in giving up the EF mount lenses on such a (relatively) short term horizon. Canon knows this, and will make sure that we are not overly tempted to abandon them (ie jump ship to, say, Nikon).


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## Moulyneau (Dec 1, 2013)

kaihp said:


> Personally, I don't think whether DSLR is around in 10 years matters that much. If DSLR is dead, then it's because something superior has replaced it.
> 
> But what I think we can be pretty sure of, is that in 10 years there will still be bodies/sensors that can take EF lenses.
> 
> We as Canon's customers have far too much invested in EF lenses to be interested in giving up the EF mount lenses on such a (relatively) short term horizon. Canon knows this, and will make sure that we are not overly tempted to abandon them (ie jump ship to, say, Nikon).



+1


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## Sporgon (Dec 1, 2013)

Leica are really known for their success with single lens reflex cameras :


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## Niki (Dec 1, 2013)

agreed….canon can stay in the game with firmware updates for their older dslr bodies and lens…matching whatever is out there in ten years..… which will probably be much smaller bodies for a much cheaper price


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## MrFotoFool (Dec 1, 2013)

When color film came out decades ago, many predicted black and white film would become obsolete. This was well before digital, in which people say all film is now obsolete. And yet I work at a professional photo lab that still sells black and white film. It is clearly a niche market - which is what may happen with SLR's - but they will not go away entirely. I cannot imagine using anything else myself (except for pocket camera snapshots) - but time will tell...


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## scottkinfw (Dec 1, 2013)

As soon as Adorama releases my $$, I will purchase my 300 2.8 II from B$H, so I am not worried. He is a CEO, so he has to present a vision to the world, and sound confident. Leica sells 600-700 film cameras/year-great. Their mainstay cameras are expensive, and though I don't have numbers (Neuro, your que), they don't dominate.

In Tech terms, 10 years is forever. Even the young amongst us will be old(er). Who knows what the next generation will prefer, and who can predict what preferences will be, what the tech will be, and what will sell?

Also consider your point Dylan (and mine too). We are invested in the whole ecosystem and we love our glass. There are other things to consider like ergonomics. Just for a fun example, what if they could make a mirrorless system and improve the electronics such that it bests the current 1DX AND fits in the SL1 body, AND takes all of the current EF lenses? Not taking price into consideration, many people just won't buy it because of form factor alone. Form factor is one of many things frequently mentioned (both plus and minus) about Nikon's current DF offering.

So I'm doubling down on my lenses, and working hard to improve my skills. Let's see what the heated competition can do for us! I say bring it- but don't put it into a toy body- please.

Scott



Dylan777 said:


> http://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/leica-ceo-syas-not-sure-dslr-will-still-be-alive-in-10-years-no-way-we-go-mft/
> 
> I better enjoy my recent purchase Canon 300mm f2.8 IS II before my DSLR dies ;D
> 
> I'm not sure how they going to make 24-70 f2.8, 85mm f1.4, 135mm f2, 70-200 f2.8, 300mm f2.8 list goes on...small enough to go with mirrorless body.


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## Albi86 (Dec 1, 2013)

It's worth remembering that the guy spoke in very hypothetical terms. There is no prophecy of doom, although maybe a little enjoyment in seeing the market segment that jeopardized them being jeopardized in return.

However, even 1 year ago, when DSLR market was growing double-digit year-to-year, nobody would have imagined what happened this year. Consumer electronics is an ever volatile market. 

As somebody mentioned before, film is not dead - Leica still has around 650 order a year. It has however become a real niche market, and the possibility that one day DSLR will be the same is not to be discarded. How many people, after all, invest in 300mm f/2.8 and the like? The whole world goes towards portability, networking and software functionality; something smartphones are teaching the hard way to camera manufacturers.


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## AJ (Dec 15, 2013)

Right. 

Remember, 10 years ago we thought that in 2013 we'd be driving hydrogen-powered cars, our houses would be lit by power obtained through cold nuclear fusion, and cancer would be cured. 

And we thought APSC was just going to be a stop-gap format.


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## jrista (Dec 16, 2013)

Dylan777 said:


> http://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/leica-ceo-syas-not-sure-dslr-will-still-be-alive-in-10-years-no-way-we-go-mft/
> 
> I better enjoy my recent purchase Canon 300mm f2.8 IS II before my DSLR dies ;D
> 
> I'm not sure how they going to make 24-70 f2.8, 85mm f1.4, 135mm f2, 70-200 f2.8, 300mm f2.8 list goes on...small enough to go with mirrorless body.



I suspect the DSLR will still be here. For all the *hype* mirrorless gets, it's market isn't particularly strong except in a few sub markets (namely, Japan.) Conversely, the DSLR market has remained very strong, and I believe if the root causes of the recent moderate downturn were fully investigated, a multitude of other far more significant reasons BESIDES mirrorless would be found culprit. 

In ten years time, I bet the DSLR shares the market 50/50 with Mirrorless, maybe 40/60. I think the DSLR will die hard, if it truly dies at all. What I think will really happen is DSLR users *augment* their kit with the *addition* of a mirrorless, but continue to use both. (At least, that's what I suspect I will do myself, and I know there are a lot of the silent majority out there who think just like me when it comes to mirrorless options, EVF vs. OVF, etc.)


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## Rienzphotoz (Dec 16, 2013)

AJ said:


> Right.
> 
> Remember, 10 years ago we thought that in 2013 we'd be driving hydrogen-powered cars, our houses would be lit by power obtained through cold nuclear fusion, and cancer would be cured.
> 
> And we thought APSC was just going to be a stop-gap format.


 ;D ;D ;D good one!


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## ScottyP (Dec 27, 2013)

As long as they make the mirrorless bodies compatible with the EF lenses, who really cares? People expect to replace camera bodies an a semi-regular basis anyway. But I don't see how it would make sense for Canon to 5h1+can all its great lenses and start over.

I also think the tiny body thing will not take over. The ergonomics are just not there. People with cameras smaller than 1DX are constantly adding battery grips, which make the camera larger. That is not just about battery life; some folks like (or at least don't mind) the bigger size, because that also makes them easier to hold onto. 

Look at cell phones! For years they got littler and littler, and for a while an absurdly tiny phone was a status symbol. (Zoolander) But then functionality and ergonomics surged back, and now iPhones and smart phones are pretty big, because that makes them easier and more pleasant to work with.


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## CarlTN (Dec 28, 2013)

Of course Leica's CEO would say mirrorless would take over...rangefinder cameras are mirrorless, and they're what Leica have been known for, for what, almost a century?

It's kind of like Apple saying whatever they make is going to take over. They're losing their luster, and now Samsung and others are taking over.

I would bet heavily on a professional camera body still having a reflex mirror 15 or 20 years from now, and especially still being as large as a 1-series body (perhaps a bit lighter, but the same physical size). The technique is just too established, and the physics are against an EVF ever totally replacing a mirror and pentaprism. Even if phase autofocus goes away, there will still be some sort of mirror and prism. But I'm not even sure phase autofocus will ever go away...not for stills photography anyway. It kind of has to for video.


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