# TEN YEARS FROM NOW.



## sanj (Nov 25, 2013)

It is a bit quiet here and until the 7d2 or the high mp camera here is something for us.
I think it may be fun to predict what camera technology will be like in December of 2023. 
Here are my few predictions:
1. DSLR's will be used only by top end sports/wild life shooters.
2. Mirror less would have evolved and be thriving.
3. Point and shoot would be dead. 
4. Canon cameras will have 4 stops better ISO.
5. There will be lenses with 6 stop IS.
6. Canon and Nikon would share equal percentage of the market.
7. Canon will have 65 mp full frame camera.
8. The fast version Canon camera will shoot 18 fps.
9. DR will be around 16 stops.
10. 1d form factor will stay. 

We all need to put our thoughts down by early next year and then look at this ten years from now and tickle ourselves. 

Sanjay


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## docsmith (Nov 25, 2013)

Fun thread.

Agree pretty much except for two:
1. There will always be a point and shoot market. The 2/3rd sensor P&S may be dead, but P&S with larger sensors will exist. They are simply mirrorless cameras without interchangeable lenses. 
2. Nikon will be dead, severely diminished, or acquired by someone like Sony but not on par with Canon. Recent news of them downgrading their forecast is a harbinger. They are groping around for a product that will continuously sell. Much more so than Canon. Sigma's lenses will hurt Nikon more than Canon. 

New thoughts:
1. 3D video cameras bread new life into the camcorder market and sufficiently differentiate video from still photography that dSLRs exist that are primarily devoted to still photography
2. Someone such as fugi/Olympus/etc will rise to take Nikon's place as the #2 brand (in terms of sales) compared to Canon
3. Sony will have left the market in search of greener pastures.
4. "Lytro" cameras and sensors will be available but more of a niche.
5. Sensor tech--Bayer filters/CMOS sensors will be out. ISO performance will have necessitated all light hitting the sensor. Not sure what will have replaced it.


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## Zv (Nov 25, 2013)

I think there will be a really big advancement in image stabilization, allowing photographers to take pictures at incredibly long shutter speeds. Goodbye tripod for most people. 

I think for action and sports shooters there will be a way to capture not only a burst but a video of a few seconds from which the camera will automatically select the sharpest images and process them and "deliver" 10 or 12 good shots. No more "machine gun mode". It'll be silent and lightning fast. 

Voice activated remote shooting. Like Siri on steroids. Tell it to change modes, settings etc. goodbye IR remote. I also think a voice activated app via smartphone would be good. 

Intelligent dof mode. It detects the depth of the object and offers a suitable aperture as well as critical focus assistance. Like A-dep but actually works! Option to overide it for creative effect. 

Point and shoot replaced by cellphones (which is already happening). 

And speedlites with variable color temp built in!! ;D


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## AmbientLight (Nov 25, 2013)

Now that's a good idea.

Here's Sanj's list adapted to what I would expect:
1. DSLRs will continue to be used by professionals and amateurs alike.
2. Mirrorless will follow point and shoot cameras into the abyss of consumer cameras being replaced by camera phones.
3. Point and shoot would be dead.
4. Canon cameras will have 2 stops better ISO.
5. There will be lenses with 6 stop IS.
6. Nikon will continue to suffer economically until they are reduced to be merely a niche vendor catering to a select clientele of retro-camera fans (Nikon Df for anyone?).
7. Sony will replace Nikon as the DSLR vendor competing with Canon.
8. Canon will likely deliver something in the range of 80-120 MP sensors, making medium format obsolete for commercial purposes.
9. DR will be around 16 stops.
10. 1D form factor will stay.

What makes me nervous is the notion of voice controls for cameras. Makes me think of a bunch of sports photographers having to make silly "click", "click" noises to shoot their cameras.


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## Dylan777 (Nov 25, 2013)

Tiny FF mirrorless:
1. Better tracking than current 1D X + 12fps
2. Tiny lenses
3. Clean image at 12,000ISO
4. Make hot coffee


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## Eldar (Nov 25, 2013)

It is known to be difficult to predict, especially about the future. But it´s fun never the less.

1: Frame rates will not be an issue, because still images will be a high resolution mode in a video camera. 

2: Unless technology development speed suddenly took a dive, resolution, buffer size and memory card speed will not be a limiting factor. We are already at the limit of what a human eye can detect, considering resolution, so I don´t believe there will be much drive for that beyond 100MP. But I´m sure we will be there in 10 years time. 

3: I think the most important development will be in form factor and both visual and mechanical man machine interfaces. 

4: Cameras will be mirrorless. EVF will have resolution, color, contrast etc. beyond what we need and they can also compensate for low light situations, to ease framing and subject tracking. (But cameras will not look like a Sony A7).

5: Full sensor area AF, selectable in any way we want, will be there. And it will be very fast.

6: High ISO performance will improve significantly, making flashes a tool for the very few (I have hardly fired mine).

7: IS will improve further. But I doubt we will see anything beyond 6 stop, because I don´t believe there is sufficient practical need for it.

8: Lenses are more defined by physical barriers, so there are some limitations there to struggle with. But my guess is that Canon will crack the DO code and produce very compact, light and high performance whites and some zooms. For shorter focal lengths I believe we will see improved performance, but not dramatic changes in physical appearance.

9: We will have a universal standard for lens mounts. This is one of the few areas where we still see primarily proprietary solutions. It would be very strange if that continued for another 10 years.

10: We will see changes in the industry. Currently I think type Ricoh, Olympus, Pentax and to some extent Nikon are the most likely strugglers. Medium format will have a very tough time, so Hasselblad, Phase One etc. will struggle. Canon´s fate lies in their own hands, and I believe they will remain a top provider, with Sigma and Sony battling for second and third.

Next in line please ...


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## danski0224 (Nov 25, 2013)

Hard to say what the future will bring.

However, what I have now can do more than what I imagined 10 years ago.


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## Pi (Nov 25, 2013)

sanj said:


> 4. Canon cameras will have 4 stops better ISO.



We would first need a new Einstein to shake the foundation of physics as we know it for that (even if the Bayer sensor gets replaced by something else). Then we would need new engineers to design sensors based on the new theory. That will earn them more than one Nobel prize, I believe.


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## sanj (Nov 25, 2013)

Pi said:


> sanj said:
> 
> 
> > 4. Canon cameras will have 4 stops better ISO.
> ...



Pls elaborate.


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Nov 25, 2013)

Looking back 15 years to when DSLR's were a new evolving technology, there has really not been any earthshaking developments. Now that's the technology is mature and sensors are near their theoretical limit for efficiency, its hard for me to imagine that the next 10 years will bring anything but incremental changes.

Its possible that mirrorless cameras will be practical, FF point and shoot bodies are on the drawing boards, if you can believe the rumors, that sort of thing will happen, and I certainly hope they can add 4 stops to raw sensor ISO.

All those predictions can be done by clever tricks using multiple exposures, but that can be done now. Native sensor improvements beyond the theoretical sensor capability are a bit of a stretch though.


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## emag (Nov 25, 2013)

1. Most stills photographers will be grabbing 16k individual frames from video, but there will still be a place for stills from DSLRs.

2. Nikon will still be around.

3. We'll still be waiting for the 7DII and 100-400 replacement.

4. Small, high quality cameras will be attached to animals. Cats will take awesome photos of humans in odd sleeping positions.

5. You will be able to take stills, video, make phone calls and determine your location all with one device. Oops - already there.

6. Ken Rockwell will still be making a living doing what he does. Many current pro photographers will not.

7. His reviews will still be out to lunch.

8. People will still bash Canon for DR.

9. The 300/2.8L IS and 70-200/2.8L IS (both MkIII, pending MkIV) will still be awesome.

10. Adobe CC will be a trifle more than $10/month......


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## sanj (Nov 25, 2013)

Mt Spokane Photography said:


> sensors are near their theoretical limit for efficiency,



Would love to educate myself on this. Pls can you guide me where I can read up on this statement. Thx.


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## Mitch.Conner (Nov 25, 2013)

Your phone will be capable of better low light photography than current high end DSLRs.

There will be a pre-cog unit for copyright infringement.

Canon, Nikon, and Sony will merge into DynCorp.

At 11:52 AM, somebody's camera will become self-aware.


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Nov 25, 2013)

sanj said:


> Mt Spokane Photography said:
> 
> 
> > sensors are near their theoretical limit for efficiency,
> ...



There have been a number of articles posted on the subject. ideally, a photosite that could read out the charge of one photon would be perfect, if it weren't for several other limits that also apply.

ISO is basically limited by sensor noise, and there is noise even in light itself.

Here is one article, its a bit involved, because its not a simple subject.

http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/article_pages/guest/physical_limits_long.html

Here is a fairly technical paper about sensor noise, which is the limiting factor in high ISO low light photography.

As I said, there are technologies that sidestep the limits by combining multiple images and averaging out noise, but they do not increase the basic sensor limits.

http://electronicimaging.spiedigitallibrary.org/article.aspx?articleid=1199156


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## dppaskewitz (Nov 25, 2013)

4. Small, high quality cameras will be attached to animals. Cats will take awesome photos of humans in odd sleeping positions.


Thank you. Just what I needed this morning.


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## Mitch.Conner (Nov 25, 2013)

dppaskewitz said:


> 4. Small, high quality cameras will be attached to animals. Cats will take awesome photos of humans in odd sleeping positions.
> 
> 
> Thank you. Just what I needed this morning.



I'm tempted to check if lolhumanz.com is a registered domain yet but am too afraid it won't be safe for work.


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## unfocused (Nov 25, 2013)

AmbientLight said:


> Now that's a good idea.



Here's Sanj's and Ambient's lists adapted to what I would expect:

1. DSLRs will continue to be used by professionals and amateurs alike. Both APS-C and Full Frame will continue to be produced. Full Frame will have a slightly larger market share than it does today, but APS-C will still be the dominant format. An entry-level DSLR will cost an inflation-adjusted $200 and have about 24 mp. 

2. Mirrorless will follow point and shoot cameras into the abyss of consumer cameras being replaced by camera phones. Apple will offer iPhones branded as (pick one) Canon Inside, Nikon Inside or Fuji Inside. 

3. Point and shoot will see a revival in two areas. One will be superzooms, with Canon offering a15mm-2000mm equivalent superzoom. The image quality will be roughly equivalent to the current 7D. The other will be pocketable point and shoots that include a phone. The rear screen of the camera will look roughly the same as today's iPhone and the camera can be programmed to use the owner's existing cell phone number.

4. Canon cameras will have 2 stops better ISO.

5. There will be lenses with 6 stop IS.

6. Nikon and Canon will each pick up 1-2% more of the market. Fuji will have emerged as the third largest manufacturer and control 90 percent of what remains of the mirrorless interchangeable lens camera market.

7. Sony will have dropped it's own line of cameras and focus solely on supplying components to other manufacturers. Sony lenses will be available on eBay for about 25 cents on the dollar.

8. After losing 25% of its market share to Corel by Google, Adobe will offer a perpetual license for its Creative Suite 12, which can be updated annually for $150. 

9. Adobe and Corel by Google will both offer software capable of creating an effective 200 mp image from a 25mp file with no discernible loss of quality. Although 140mp DSLRs are available from both Canon and Nikon, they are a custom order item and are made to the specifications of the buyer. Each manufacturer produces only about three dozen of these each year. 

10. Most professionals and serious amateurs will continue to use DSLRs with about 25 mp. 

9. Out of focus images will be a thing of the past as the convergence of improved autofocus, light field focusing and improved software algorithms make it possible to correct for any human focusing errors. 

10. Enthusiast and Professional DSLRs will no longer be "off the shelf" items. Instead, customers will select the sensor size (APS-C or full frame); Megapixels (25, 35 or 45); Frame Rate; button configuration; still or video optimization; wi-fi; gps; and about four to five other features not yet released. A camera with the requested options will be delivered in about one week after the order is placed. 

11. Independent camera customizers will be available in the major cities (New York, Paris, Beijing, Capetown) who install specialized components mostly into 1D form factor cameras.


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## RLPhoto (Nov 25, 2013)

In ten years, gearheads complain about their gear while photographers continue to deliver great images with any camera.


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## Rat (Nov 25, 2013)

Mitch.Conner said:


> I'm tempted to check if lolhumanz.com is a registered domain yet but am too afraid it won't be safe for work.



Lolhumans.com and lolhumanz.com are both registered by domain brokers and are for sale. Surprise, surprise.

Also, checking a domain name can be done SFW via sites such as whois.net. Just key in 'domain name' in google and you'll find tons of sites that'll help.


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## Niki (Nov 25, 2013)

film cameras


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## Don Haines (Nov 25, 2013)

10 years from now the 7Dmark2 is FINALLY released..... people are still waiting for the updated 100-400F5.6...


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## Don Haines (Nov 25, 2013)

dppaskewitz said:


> 4. Small, high quality cameras will be attached to animals. Cats will take awesome photos of humans in odd sleeping positions.
> 
> 
> Thank you. Just what I needed this morning.



Been there.... done that.... Fluffy slept all day.... boring!!!!


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## Woody (Nov 25, 2013)

sanj said:


> 9. DR will be around 16 stops.



The ideal FF sensor will have slightly more than a stop of dynamic range compared to today's sensors. See:
http://home.comcast.net/~NikonD70/Charts/PDR.htm#EOS%205D%20Mark%20III,D600,D800E,EOS%201D%20X,D4,Ideal_FX
Thus, if we believe DXOMark that the D800 sensor is capable of achieving 13.23 stops of DR at base ISO, then the highest achievable DR is at best 14.5.


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## eml58 (Nov 25, 2013)

AvTvM will buy a Canon Camera, and actually be Happy with it


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## tomscott (Nov 26, 2013)

I don't think still photography will be anywhere near like it is now.

I think video will get so good that we will be taking high resolution stills, meaning if your a commercial photographer you will never miss a moment and can freeze that perfect moment.

Its already starting and will change the industry.


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## Pi (Nov 26, 2013)

sanj said:


> Mt Spokane Photography said:
> 
> 
> > sensors are near their theoretical limit for efficiency,
> ...



The starting point is that the dominant noise at high ISO is the shot noise a.k.a the photon noise, google them. It is not a sensor noise (the sensor has its own noise, most visible in the shadows, or everywhere with long exposures). It is due to the discrete nature of light (on a certain micro scale). This is a noise of the projected image, to be more precise, it is a noisy image of the actual object in front of the lens, and nothing can be done about that for a given amount of total light. An ideal sensor would register every photon in its exact location, and the image will be noisy depending on the exposure (same sensor). This is the physical hard limit.

The reason that not ideal sensors create noisier images, even noisier than the hard limit is that they do not capture all the light (and then we have read noise, etc., but let us ignore this at the moment). If they capture, say 50% (called Quantum Efficiency (QE)), then you lose 1 stop of light, and get 1 stop worse noise than the hard limit

Next, a few smart people calculated the QE of many sensors here: http://www.sensorgen.info/, using DXO data. Today's sensors are around QE=50%. Now, this is with Bayer design, on the green channel (if I remember well). Color separation amplifies the noise, color dependent. If you keep the Bayer design and the color filters and increase the QE to 100%, you gain 1 stop. That's it. You cannot do better than that.

If the future brings sensors with a different design, more light can be captured; how much, it depends on the color. The gain for green(ish) colors would be around 2x (1 stop), for the other would be more but we are not so sensitive to them. There would be (hopefully) no need of color conversion, which can give you a bit more, depending on the color. You get 2+ stop possible improvement but less than 4 stops. 

I hope I am wrong!


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## Radiating (Nov 26, 2013)

sanj said:


> It is a bit quiet here and until the 7d2 or the high mp camera here is something for us.
> I think it may be fun to predict what camera technology will be like in December of 2023.
> Here are my few predictions:
> 1. DSLR's will be used only by top end sports/wild life shooters.



Why? Mirrored cameras simply work better for taking photos than mirrorless, the only advantage of mirrorless is size, which pros don't really care about considering the lenses have the be huge to resolve the amount of detail they do and collect the amount of light they do. 



> 2. Mirror less would have evolved and be thriving.



Sounds reasonable, but I don't think they will take that much market share away.




> 3. Point and shoot would be dead.



Agree 100%



> 4. Canon cameras will have 4 stops better ISO.



Absurd.

This literally defies the laws of physics. Camera noise is actually a function of quantum physics, the noise you see is the variation between the intensity of the random distribution of photons that hit the sensor. The way you reduce noise is by increasing your sample size meaning you collect a larger percentage of photons that hit the sensor.

Cameras currently collect around half the photons that hit the sensor, the rest are absorbed or scattered. That means your camera would also have to be a time machine for it to improve more than 1 stop. It's physically impossible.

Most of the ISO improvements of cameras have come from improvements in marketing not technology. In the LAST 10 years cameras have improved around 2/3rds of a stop. You can expect a similar improvement in the next 10 years.

Marketing has made it so that what used to be ISO 6600 is now "ISO 12800!!!!!!!1111ONE ONE", cameras seem to have settled to nearly doubling stated ISO from actual ISO as the standard for now though.

The nest possible invention will be micro prism technology which may give is that 2/3rds of a stop in 3-4 years.



> 5. There will be lenses with 6 stop IS.



Sounds reasonable.



> 6. Canon and Nikon would share equal percentage of the market.



nobody can say



> 7. Canon will have 65 mp full frame camera.



reasonable



> 8. The fast version Canon camera will shoot 18 fps.



reasonable



> 9. DR will be around 16 stops.



reasonable



> 10. 1d form factor will stay.



agreed

We all need to put our thoughts down by early next year and then look at this ten years from now and tickle ourselves. 

Sanjay
[/quote]


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## Grumbaki (Nov 26, 2013)

> TEN YEARS FROM NOW.



The capslock epidemics will be solved.


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## Marsu42 (Nov 26, 2013)

sanj said:


> 1. DSLR's will be used only by top end sports/wild life shooters.



I don't quite get this - because phase af is supposed to be better than sensor af even a decade from now? If not, mirrorless is ideal for fps junkies, you need space-age tech to get 12-14fps on the 1dx, but any mirrorless could deliver as many frames as your buffer can hold and card can write.



sanj said:


> 4. Canon cameras will have 4 stops better ISO.



Maybe, if they sacrifice 2 stop of dynamic range 



sanj said:


> 5. There will be lenses with 6 stop IS.



Absolutely, if the marketing guys go crazy there will be a 8 stop IS because no one ever defined what an x stop IS is supposed to be - is it for 100% equivalence @100% crop? If so, with higher mp the real IS rating of lenses will go *down* rather than up. But I agree there might be more clever handheld detection coming up improving IS in general.



sanj said:


> 8. The fast version Canon camera will shoot 18 fps.



See above, the fastest Canon (mirrorless) will shoot 180fps.



sanj said:


> 9. DR will be around 16 stops.



But only on low iso - maybe Canon will get closer to Nikon again, and you're already getting 14ev now (and 14.5ev with Magic Lantern ).


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## EchoLocation (Nov 26, 2013)

AmbientLight said:


> 2. Mirrorless will follow point and shoot cameras into the abyss of consumer cameras being replaced by camera phones.


I think it will be 100% the opposite. DSLR's or medium format(which will then be easily available in DSLR sized cameras) will still be used by most pro's but by only very serious hobbyists(think Neuro, the guys on this board, etc.)... But nearly all the rebel, 70D, 6D market will be replaced by mirrorless cameras.
Yesterday was the day I made the move. I bought the a7 and will soon sell all my DSLR gear. I cannot imagine a reason to go back to DSLR's as long as the weight is nearly double an a7 sized camera and the size is much larger
I firmly believe this trend will continue.... Just imagine how excited people on this board will be when Canon makes a FF mirroless with good AF. Everyone on here will buy one as a backup, and most wont really need their DSLR anymore.... I don't.


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## Pi (Nov 26, 2013)

EchoLocation said:


> Yesterday was the day I made the move. I bought the a7 and will soon sell all my DSLR gear. I cannot imagine a reason to go back to DSLR's as long as the weight is nearly double an a7 sized camera and the size is much larger



How much would a 70-200 lens for the a7 weigh and how much smaller would it be?


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## Hillsilly (Nov 26, 2013)

Advancements will have slowed to a snail pace with new features more related to processing speed (eg better/faster AF) and connectivity than sensor / IQ improvments. With only incremental improvements to IQ, most photographers will start seeing their camera as "good enough" and sales of higher end cameras will decline. To counter this, we'll see a more modular approach to the 5D5 and IDX3 with most components able to be upgraded easily (but not necessarily cheaply) at Canon service centres. Even though many people won't update their camera as frequently, Canon will hope that many people will still give their cameras a mid-life refresh 2 to 3 years after buying it.

One they sort out on-sensor AF, Canon will jump over to mirrorless. But just as you can still but a 1V, you'll still be able to buy a DSLR. Interestingly, the mirrorless version will be touted as the higher end model, as it will have more accurate focus and faster fps. 

On the 1 series bodies, Canon will take a hybrid aproach. They will still have a mirror, but at the flick of a switch, the camera enters mirror-up mode and an EVF screen appears in the viewfinder. Best of both worlds. (Keeping the EF mount allows Canon to do this).


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## sandymandy (Nov 26, 2013)

perhaps a retro neo hipster camera will come out that looks like the 7D. tbh i dont think anything really big will happen.


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## Eldar (Nov 26, 2013)

I don´t believe there is any question that the future is mirror less. As soon as EVFs become good enough, there is no question that the benefits and flexibility they can provide will make mirror based cameras redundant.

A few advantages:
1: It can give you better viewing capabilities in low light
2: It can give you true FF, APS-H APS-C selection capability, where the viewer adapts to the selected format
3: It can give you a near silent shutter
4: It can give you higher fps
5: It gives you design options you can´t have with a mirror based body
6: It removes mechanical parts, which should improve its MTBF
7: It will give more AF functionality options

But! 
I believe the current mirror less cameras (I have not looked through a only A7/A7R yet) still have a way to go to outperform a mirror based camera. 
I don´t believe the A7 type bodies are what we will see in the future, but rather new designs that gives further improvements in functional layout and mechanical design, which does´t necessarily mean small.


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## Woody (Nov 26, 2013)

Eldar said:


> I don´t believe there is any question that the future is mirror less. As soon as EVFs become good enough, there is no question that the benefits and flexibility they can provide will make mirror based cameras redundant.



One of my biggest gripes about EVF: not as bright as OVF, poor DR compared to OVF. I doubt the EVF can ever match OVF in this department because the human eye adapts far more quickly than EVFs.


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## EchoLocation (Nov 26, 2013)

Pi said:


> EchoLocation said:
> 
> 
> > Yesterday was the day I made the move. I bought the a7 and will soon sell all my DSLR gear. I cannot imagine a reason to go back to DSLR's as long as the weight is nearly double an a7 sized camera and the size is much larger
> ...


the Sony FE mount f4 version is pretty similar to Canon's current offering(based on a visual comparison alone.)
That being said, if you read my whole comment you would see that I specifically mention that most pros will still use DSLR's. However, I know about 10-15 people with DSLR's(all amateurs) and only 1 of them has the 70-200(the f4 he bought for 350 bucks on CL) or anything longer(besides those cheap 18-300 superzooms.)
I myself want a small camera with a few small primes for when I travel for extended periods of time and for carrying around daily in my backpack. 
If I have to sacrifice ergonomics with long lenses, that I never use, for this, then that is an easy choice to make.
I know for people who regularly use long, heavy lenses this sentiment may be very different, but that is not the majority of DSLR buyers.


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## Niki (Nov 26, 2013)

canon and nikon will be able to match the pixels in a film frame


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## Rat (Nov 26, 2013)

Woody said:


> Thus, if we believe DXOMark



Well that's a bit of a stretch.


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## Efka76 (Nov 26, 2013)

My predictions:

1) No significant changes in lenses. Some lenses will be updated, sharpness, overall IQ slightly improved. If we take a look how old current lenses are we will see that some of them were introduced 10 years or more ago. However, I would expect that Sigma and Tamron will be on the same level as Canon / Nikon. Canon / Nikon will loose quite significant share to Sigma and Tamron in lens area.

2) I would expect introduction of new sensors generation (also, I would not be surprised if Canon would stll use "old" sensors, i.e. introduced next year, even after 10 years) 

3) All DSLRs will include wi-fi, GPS and some other features which are included in current P&S cameras  In 10 years I expect to see 2 additional generations of DIGIC processors, which will enable higher processing power required for high MP cameras. Semi-pro, pro cameras will have 40-60 MP (I do not think that Canon or Nikon will go so deep in medium format area and introduce 100 MP in FF cameras).

4) Hasselblad, Phase One and other MF companies will be bought by Canon, Nikon, or Sony. MF will still be used by professionals only, however, MF cameras and lenses prices will be much lower (but still not affordable to amateurs). What's a difference if cameras system costs not USD 50,000 but USD 30,000 

5) In Canon rumours people will still be moaning that cameras should have better DR, should be able to cope with high ISO and require more megapixels. Many current CR forum members will be pensioners and will switch to mirrorless cameras as they are much lighter  

6) Ken Rockwell will still be begging everybody for money but on a much higher scale (many Internet TV channels)


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## Pi (Nov 26, 2013)

11. The DR of Canon will reach that of Nikon today.


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## Eldar (Nov 26, 2013)

Pi said:


> 11. The DR of Canon will reach that of Nikon today.


This may change that:
http://www.sonyalpharumors.com/sr4-hasselblad-and-sony-to-make-a-joint-sensor-announcement/


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## 100 (Nov 26, 2013)

A couple of stops more dynamic range and better high iso…. Nice to have but a bit boring. 
Why don’t we aim higher technology wise? Something like Artificial or Synthetic Biological Image Sensors combined with a liquid optical construction? Or maybe something like print on demand optics (3D printing), buy just the design and print it at your local 3D print shop, or design your own lens and print it. 

Technology is great, but once we can shoot 4k, 8k or higher video at 30, 60 or more frames per second with all the dynamic range you need and nearly perfect intelligent autofocus capabilities, the stills photographer might become obsolete. Just grab the best frame and print it as big as you want or need. 

Remember the Buggles? 1979… Video killed the radio star
http://youtu.be/Iwuy4hHO3YQ
A guilty pleasure, I know, but to some extent we are like the old radio stars and the times they are a-changin' 
On the bright side, radio is still here, so there is hope for us ;-)


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## Pi (Nov 26, 2013)

100 said:


> Technology is great, but once we can shoot 4k, 8k or higher video at 30, 60 or more frames per second with all the dynamic range you need and nearly perfect intelligent autofocus capabilities, the stills photographer might become obsolete. Just grab the best frame and print it as big as you want or need.



Hm..., to replicate a 10 sec night shot, I would need 600 frames...


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## 100 (Nov 26, 2013)

Pi said:


> Hm..., to replicate a 10 sec night shot, I would need 600 frames...



Long exposure (night) shots is a bit of a niche market. Video won't replace macro stacks either and if you look hard enough there will be more fields of stills photography where you can't do the same with high resolution video. Large format photography is still mostly analogue these days for instance. But 80 or 90% of today’s photos will be possible with tomorrow’s video equipment.


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## Don Haines (Nov 26, 2013)

Pi said:


> 100 said:
> 
> 
> > Technology is great, but once we can shoot 4k, 8k or higher video at 30, 60 or more frames per second with all the dynamic range you need and nearly perfect intelligent autofocus capabilities, the stills photographer might become obsolete. Just grab the best frame and print it as big as you want or need.
> ...



10 seconds! I've done 3 hour long star trails.... that's a LOT of frames.... There is also image stacking, where we already shoot video of an astronomical object, extract a few thousand frames, and then process them.. A time and a place for both techniques.


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## mkabi (Nov 26, 2013)

I suppose in 10 years, people will be complaining that Canon hasn't moved into the GP range.


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## iron-t (Nov 26, 2013)

1. Metering sensor and processing technology that takes in a scene, determines likely subjects and desired photo style, and gets exposure perfect 99% of the time. True evaluative metering.

2. Switchable optical and electronic viewfinder modes.

3. 50 MP output becomes the norm.

4. Removable media becomes optional as cameras have ample internal storage and transfers are accomplished via wireless.


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## Zv (Nov 27, 2013)

iron-t said:


> 1. Metering sensor and processing technology that takes in a scene, determines likely subjects and desired photo style, and gets exposure perfect 99% of the time. True evaluative metering.
> 
> 2. Switchable optical and electronic viewfinder modes.
> 
> ...



Sandisk and Lexar might just beat you up if you keep talkin like that (no.4). 

;D


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## CarlTN (Nov 27, 2013)

sanj said:


> It is a bit quiet here and until the 7d2 or the high mp camera here is something for us.
> I think it may be fun to predict what camera technology will be like in December of 2023.
> Here are my few predictions:
> 1. DSLR's will be used only by top end sports/wild life shooters.
> ...



I disagree with 1,2,3, and 6...and the rest will happen before 2023. Nikon and Sigma will be bought by Canon!


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## sanj (Nov 27, 2013)

Zv said:


> I think there will be a really big advancement in image stabilization, allowing photographers to take pictures at incredibly long shutter speeds. Goodbye tripod for most people.
> 
> That would be great but I doubt if it will be over 6 stops in next ten years.
> 
> ...


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## sanj (Nov 27, 2013)

docsmith said:


> Fun thread.
> 
> Agree pretty much except for two:
> 1. There will always be a point and shoot market. The 2/3rd sensor P&S may be dead, but P&S with larger sensors will exist. They are simply mirrorless cameras without interchangeable lenses.
> ...


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## sanj (Nov 27, 2013)

AmbientLight said:


> Now that's a good idea.
> 
> Here's Sanj's list adapted to what I would expect:
> 1. DSLRs will continue to be used by professionals and amateurs alike.
> ...


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## Ruined (Nov 27, 2013)

Ten years from now:

-Mirrorless dead, consumer market killed by high end cameraphones, pros not interested
-Most consumers using cameraphones for camera
-DSLR still around as it remains the choice of pro


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## Maximilian (Nov 27, 2013)

All interesting answers and thoughts.

I have no idea right now what else to add. Except for one thing:
I am missing any thought of the role *SAMSUNG *will be playing. 

They have entered the system camera market. 
And if they go forward with that as they did in other markets (TV, LED, of course not to forget smart phones and tablets), I think they will take over a big part of the consumer market and maybe then also aim for the pros.

The last thing I believe is that they will draw back.


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## AmbientLight (Nov 27, 2013)

Maximilian said:


> All interesting answers and thoughts.
> 
> I have no idea right now what else to add. Except for one thing:
> I am missing any thought of the role *SAMSUNG *will be playing.
> ...



I don't know where this notion of wondrous change in Samsung comes from. They have been an excellent vendor for computer monitors like 15 years ago, so how come anyone should be surprised that they become a top TV vendor? I don't get how people should be surprised by that. Samsung has also been busy in other areas for quite a long time and they have been at this since 1938. Just read their corporate history.

Nevertheless Samsung is nowhere near being a serious player in the DSLR market. They are not even a big player in mirrorless yet, although they have entered this market. As I see it they just try their hand at producing point-and-shoot cameras to gain some valuable R&D experience to provide some fringe benefits for their smart phone business. You can turn that argument around and stand it on its head as well: Samsung is willing to invest in this area as an offshoot of their smart phone development. You shouldn't expect Samsung not to be aware that the point-and-shoot market is shrinking rapidly.

Nevertheless there is a vast difference between being for example Nikon and being Samsung. Just think about being able to produce high quality lenses. Are you seriously expecting Samsung to be able to do so on the next 10 or even 20 years without having to purchase some other corporation?

You can look at Sony's acquisitions and collaboration with Zeiss for what a corporation must do to become a serious player and even Sony is not replacing Nikon yet, although Sony appears to be doing perhaps not all the right things but at least quite many of those. There is still an awful lot of learning curve ahead of them, before they can replace one of the top two. Just bringing out interesting products is not enough. They must be willing to somehow keep their related system products valid for decades as well.

It should be no surprise that a well established vendor such as Fuji is still doing well. The bottom line is: You either have experience and make it work or you don't.


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## Maximilian (Nov 27, 2013)

Hello AmbientLight!

Maybe there is some misunderstanding of my post. 



AmbientLight said:


> Maximilian said:
> 
> 
> > All interesting answers and thoughts.
> ...


For me Samsung is nothing new and I have read several articles about them to understand them better. So I was not groping about in the dark with my comment.
More I am fully aware, that when they do things, they do it with consequence and with a lot of resources.



> Nevertheless Samsung is nowhere near being a serious player in the DSLR market.


Nobody was saying this thread was just about DSLRs. And here I agree with you. 
They won't go into "old" tec but maybe trying to overrun the market with something new as they did when they got familiar with smart phones and tablets.



> They are not even a big player in mirrorless yet, although they have entered this market. As I see it they just try their hand at producing point-and-shoot cameras to gain some valuable R&D experience to provide some fringe benefits for their smart phone business. You can turn that argument around and stand it on its head as well: Samsung is willing to invest in this area as an offshoot of their smart phone development. You shouldn't expect Samsung not to be aware that the point-and-shoot market is shrinking rapidly.
> 
> Nevertheless there is a vast difference between being for example Nikon and being Samsung. Just think about being able to produce high quality lenses. Are you seriously expecting Samsung to be able to do so on the next 10 or even 20 years without having to purchase some other corporation?


But they have the power to do so. And they have a lot.
Do you think Canon or Nikon or even the struggling Olympus can do what they could?



> You can look at Sony's acquisitions and collaboration with Zeiss for what a corporation must do to become a serious player and even Sony is not replacing Nikon yet, although Sony appears to be doing perhaps not all the right things but at least quite many of those.


Sony is Sony. And IMHO it is not the best, what they did to Minolta. (to be polite).
Samsung has a much better and positive standing in the eyes of a lot of consumers. 
Especially the ones they gathered throughout the last years.



> There is still an awful lot of learning curve ahead of them, before they can replace one of the top two. Just bringing out interesting products is not enough. They must be willing to somehow keep their related system products valid for decades as well.
> 
> It should be no surprise that a well established vendor such as Fuji is still doing well. The bottom line is: You either have experience and make it work or you don't.


And my bottom line is:
If Samsung is not just playing around, which I can not see from their corporate history, they are willing to learn. And they have the power to learn. 
But maybe you are right and they lose interest in the new toy. And so this is a question for "TEN YEARS FROM NOW", isn't it?

Your thoughts?


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## AmbientLight (Nov 27, 2013)

@Maximilian

I agree that Samsung is not playing around. This is exactly why I don't see them as primarily a camera vendor. They are an electronics company and as diversified as is typical for large Asian corporations. They will do anything to get into evolving markets, just as you said, but becoming a camera vendor requires specialization in lenses and you can't get there in any form just with electronics engineers and a lot of money.

Getting excellent R&D staff for lenses like for example Zeiss or Canon or Nikon currently have available is next to impossible without purchasing a company just to get their staff. You can't hire excellent R&D staff in that area coming directly from universities, because nowadays there is very little research in that area. Just go onto university webpages and try to find one with actual research in optics. The best I could find searching for such a topic have been people researching better contact lenses.

To grow organically a company must have some staff specialized in lens design to begin with and then they must grow that R&D staff over decades to get to where they want to be. There's nothing easy about that and no shortcuts available whatsoever. Purchasing a weaker, much smaller player is the thing to do and the example you make of Sony's acquisition of Minolta just serves to show how difficult it is to reap a profit shortly after such an acquisition. Minolta was not exactly a weak player on the market for SLRs.


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## Maximilian (Nov 27, 2013)

AmbientLight said:


> To grow organically a company must have some staff specialized in lens design to begin with...


Here I also agree with you. 
But i believe more in the model of Panasonic and Sony, that they will cooperate withe someone. 
And I think that Samsung will have the advantage of a much better reputation than Sony. 

I think they will copy the "Sony way" and try to make it much better with better cam body tec.


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## Cory (Nov 27, 2013)

I'll still be asking what to upgrade to from my T1i.


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## TAF (Nov 27, 2013)

The entire EOS eco system is *******, and it is all my fault.

You see, I finally have everything I need for the foreseeable future; nothing more to buy...I've got the 17-40L, the 24-105L, the 70-300L, and the Zeiss 50/1.4 (and the 40mm pancake, but that's just for fun) to go with my 5D3.

Now I intend to spend the next 10 years perfecting my skills with my equipment.

The last time I was in this position, I purchased my Canon F-1 with the 28/2.8, 50/1.2, and 135/2.5 lenses, and spent 10 years perfecting my skills. Then I went out looking to expand my collection of lenses and accessories, and found the entire FD line gone.

History will no doubt repeat.

What comes after digital?


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## Famateur (Nov 27, 2013)

TAF said:


> The entire EOS eco system is *******, and it is all my fault.
> 
> You see, I finally have everything I need for the foreseeable future; nothing more to buy...I've got the 17-40L, the 24-105L, the 70-300L, and the Zeiss 50/1.4 (and the 40mm pancake, but that's just for fun) to go with my 5D3.
> 
> ...



You know you're in a great situation when you can forget about gear acquisition and focus on skills. Just remember, though -- Canon will define what you "need", and sooner or later, you'll find yourself agreeing.


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## ajfotofilmagem (Nov 27, 2013)

I do not know what will be the camera market in 10 years. But I know that the EOS system is the more stronger today because in 1987 Canon had the courage to completely change your line of lenses and cameras. At that time, users cried and mourned the inconpatibilidade of new with existing equipment, but it allowed current lenses and cameras achieve the performance we know now. Nikon has good cameras and lenses, but risks with niche projects such as D800E, and the "new" Nikon DF. On the other hand, Sony has taken bold attitude with A7R why has not the most important in the long run: A solid line of lenses. If I had to choose which company to invest my money, would be Canon. The market of domestic cameras can change dramatically in 10 years, but professionals and serious enthusiasts will keep buying cameras and lenses that do a good job together.


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## eml58 (Nov 27, 2013)

AmbientLight said:


> To grow organically a company must have



Manure, a lot of Manure is needed to grow Organically


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## ajfotofilmagem (Nov 28, 2013)

eml58 said:


> AmbientLight said:
> 
> 
> > To grow organically a company must have
> ...


Thanks EML, for my laughter. ;D When I think of something organic, I think the vision afforded by film grain. I think that technology will evolve in the direction of simulating film grain, as opposed to "clean up" the noise at high ISO.


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## rpt (Nov 28, 2013)

eml58 said:


> AmbientLight said:
> 
> 
> > To grow organically a company must have
> ...


Ha! Ha! Ha! Edward, you made my morning! ;D


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## sanj (Nov 28, 2013)

Grumbaki said:


> > TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
> 
> 
> 
> The capslock epidemics will be solved.



Hahahahaha or should I be typing HAHAHAHAHA….


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## verysimplejason (Nov 28, 2013)

10 years from now, as long as my 6D is still working, I'll still take a lot of pictures with it. If it breaks, then I'll just get another camera. For me it's rather all about skill and not about gadget progression...


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## TAF (Dec 2, 2013)

ajfotofilmagem said:


> I do not know what will be the camera market in 10 years. But I know that the EOS system is the more stronger today because in 1987 Canon had the courage to completely change your line of lenses and cameras. At that time, users cried and mourned the inconpatibilidade of new with existing equipment, but it allowed current lenses and cameras achieve the performance we know now. Nikon has good cameras and lenses, but risks with niche projects such as D800E, and the "new" Nikon DF. On the other hand, Sony has taken bold attitude with A7R why has not the most important in the long run: A solid line of lenses. If I had to choose which company to invest my money, would be Canon. The market of domestic cameras can change dramatically in 10 years, but professionals and serious enthusiasts will keep buying cameras and lenses that do a good job together.




I'm not certain I can agree that the EOS system is stronger because of Canon's decision to orphan all their previous owners. Since they felt the need to start with a (mostly) clean slate, they could have chosen the flange distance such that a high quality adapter for the FD mount lenses would have been reasonable (and profitable). They took a calculated risk that they wouldn't drive all their customers to Nikon (and remember they did hedge their bet by make a very special adapter for those few customers who had invested in the really expensive telephoto lenses), and it paid off.

They tested the waters (unsuccessfully) with their autofocus FD lenses, analyzed the market trajectory, made some strategic decisions, and were eventually proven to have chosen correctly.

But we'll never know what might have been if they had made the decision to make their new design adaptable to their old lenses. Perhaps they might have been even stronger. (although then Ed Mika wouldn't be in business)

But given their demonstrated lack of loyalty to the installed base, one has to wonder what 10 years will bring.


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## danski0224 (Dec 2, 2013)

TAF said:


> I'm not certain I can agree that the EOS system is stronger because of Canon's decision to orphan all their previous owners. Since they felt the need to start with a (mostly) clean slate, they could have chosen the flange distance such that a high quality adapter for the FD mount lenses would have been reasonable (and profitable). They took a calculated risk that they wouldn't drive all their customers to Nikon (and remember they did hedge their bet by make a very special adapter for those few customers who had invested in the really expensive telephoto lenses), and it paid off.
> 
> They tested the waters (unsuccessfully) with their autofocus FD lenses, analyzed the market trajectory, made some strategic decisions, and were eventually proven to have chosen correctly.
> 
> ...



I can't imagine the uproar if the same thing was done today... but I suppose it's possible.

I wonder what technical aspects made the 2 systems incompatible.


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## Richard8971 (Dec 2, 2013)

verysimplejason said:


> 10 years from now, as long as my 6D is still working, I'll still take a lot of pictures with it. If it breaks, then I'll just get another camera. For me it's rather all about skill and not about gadget progression...



+1

That is a very powerful, yet simple statement. 

A photography friend of mine says "Learn the equipment you have and learn it well." We may not always agree with the upper-ups at Canon but unfortunately, THEY are the ones making the cameras, not us. All we can do is dream and wonder what they might be coming up with next.

In the meantime, all of us find ourselves trying to find a niche in the photography world and we use what we can afford. I plan on using my 7D until it breaks and then I will probably replace it with another 7D, even if a 7D2 replacement is available. Why?

Even if the 7D2 is (and very likely will be) a show stopping, class-leading, state of the art camera, it will be in the area of (guessing) $2000 ~ $2400. You can get a NEW refurbished 7D from Adorama with a 1 year warranty for under a grand ($919.99) at the moment. (I've seen it as low as $1300 for a new body during sales, it's $1399.99 right now.) And, very likely, the 7D will be even lower in price after the 7D2 comes out.

That is an amazing price for a camera body that does so much. It is a tank and a very fast one at that. 

I have shot with the 5D3 and honestly? I wasn't 100% convinced that it was worth (to me) the $3200 price tag. When I can get the 7D for almost 2 GRAND less? Doesn't make much sense to me.

I am not a pixel peeper and yes, there are those on here that use Canon's for work, so YES they NEED the 5D3 or 1DX. I don't.

I don't have a problem with the high ISO photos my camera takes. I think they look amazing viewing them NORMALLY. Sure, take an ISO 1600 photograph from the 7D and BLOW it up, yes you can see "hot pixels" BUT, you view it within the size of your computer screen or make a 11 X 14 print and it looks amazing. You don't even notice the "hot pixels". Now, someone who makes building-sized prints, the 7D high ISO photos won't work for them and that's fine. It does NOT mean the 7D is crap and that anything less than a 5D3 is garbage.

They are allowed to not LIKE a particular camera, for whatever reason, but it does not make that product useless. I don't care for the EOS M and I feel that Canon could have done a better job, that's my OPINION, it does not mean the M is a crappy camera and that someone shouldn't use it.

I am looking forward to what Canon comes out with next. Personally, I hope the concentrate more on low noise high ISO photos and image quality than anything else, but that's just me.

D


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## Richard8971 (Dec 2, 2013)

danski0224 said:


> I can't imagine the uproar if the same thing was done today... but I suppose it's possible.
> 
> I wonder what technical aspects made the 2 systems incompatible.



I believe it was because the AF motor was inside the camera body and not in the lens like the EF lenses are now. 

Current DSLR Nikon's are backward compatible with all Nikkor lenses but certain bodies (Like the D7000/D7100) can AF older lenses while others cannot. (Like the D5300)

At this point in the game, I think Canon would have a munity on their if they changed the camera lens mount again. I know I wouldn't stick around.

D


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## alexanderferdinand (Dec 2, 2013)

In ten years I hope I still have the passion like today.

New tools?
Yes please! Whatever it may be.

(the radio triggered flashes from Canon where a surprise and very welcome- something like that I hope!)


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## pedro (Dec 2, 2013)

As I am not much into tech: I've heard taht pixel binning adds to noise reduction. So, is it theoretically possible to cram 80 MP on a waver and get a 20 MP pixel binning sensor? But I guess, that with these tiny pixels cannont collect enough photons either, so an endavour like that will turn obsolete as well. My 0.5 cents of knowledge.


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## J.R. (Dec 2, 2013)

ten years from now ... who cares, just go out there and shoot with what is available, today! 

As Don Haines has it in his signature ... _The best camera is the one in your hands _


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## hendrik-sg (Dec 2, 2013)

Mt Spokane Photography said:


> sanj said:
> 
> 
> > Mt Spokane Photography said:
> ...



Low light and low iso capabilities are sometimes mixed up in this forum. As far as low light is concerned, the paper mentioned above is a really complete and well founded explanation of whats possible and what not. the theoretical limit of information contained in a photo, is to count all photons and detect their color. This perfect image will be noisy as hell. This perfect image will be limeted by lenses, diffraction, sensor efficency, and by additional noise added anywhere between the incoming light and the photo arriving on the chip card (readout noise). 

where sony/nikon are better than canon at the moment is low iso area, where canon is limited by readout or other noise. the way to better IQ would be to have lower native iso capabilities, but i dont know where the actual limitation near 100 is coming from. 

maybe there will be more progress in postprozessing, to get the best out of an existing raw file, example here may be astronomics, where not only bigger instruments are build but also better results are obtained from existing instruments. 

and the biggest limitation was forgottenuntil now.... most of my bad pictures are bad because of bad composition, to slow camera handling (missed opportunity), or just undone pics, because the camera was at home. But the existing equipment at least allows me to practise my skills, until the really good camera is out, which will compensate for my failures as far as possible....


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## danski0224 (Dec 2, 2013)

Richard8971 said:


> I believe it was because the AF motor was inside the camera body and not in the lens like the EF lenses are now.
> 
> Current DSLR Nikon's are backward compatible with all Nikkor lenses but certain bodies (Like the D7000/D7100) can AF older lenses while others cannot. (Like the D5300)
> 
> ...



Interesting. I haven't really researched the AF tech available back then for the FD equipment.

Guess I lucked out choosing an EOS 620 way back when...


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## rpt (Dec 2, 2013)

J.R. said:


> ten years from now ... who cares, just go out there and shoot with what is available, today!
> 
> As Don Haines has it in his signature ... _The best camera is the one in your hands _


+1


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