# Why are people so sure that a 5d3 will be realised in 2012?



## Jona100 (Dec 28, 2011)

Imo, Internet rumours have a unique ability to fire up confirmation bias with rocket fuel to turn conjecture into 'fact'.

Anybody else have doubts about a 2012 5d3? I mean there is no reason not for a 2013 date.


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## handsomerob (Dec 28, 2011)

Yes, rumors should be taken with a grain of salt but there are actually a few indications for a 5DIII release sooner than later:


product release cycle : if you consider the 3 year difference between the 5D and the 5DII, third one of the series should have been released in September 2011 already. 5DIII is maybe not completely ready yet, or they are waiting to see what Nikon will come up with. There have been a few natural disasters as well.
competition offerings : Nikon D800 is about to (also a rumor...) be released, direct competitor of the 5DIII. Sony is also preparing their A900 successor (yet another rumor). So Canon would like to keep up with them, even if the 5DII will still is (and always be!!) an amazing camera.
current 5DII prices : 5DII got a lot cheaper in the last few months, maybe Canon wants to sell all the stock before 5DIII is released?
new cash cow : 5DIII will sell in huge numbers and Canon knows that. They would want to recover losses those disasters have caused asap  
There are probably some more that I can't think of right now, or that I simply missed. 

I'd like to hear *why* do you think it won't be released in 2012.


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## ecka (Dec 28, 2011)

> Why are people so sure that a 5d3 will be realised in 2012?


Because Canon needs our money!


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## CowGummy (Dec 28, 2011)

2012 also is an Olympic Games year.
And more importantly - 2012 marks the 25 year anniversary of the EOS system. 

I think this time round it's pretty safe to assume they will launch the 5DIII this coming year.


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## Jona100 (Dec 28, 2011)

Handsomerob - I think you make some good points, however I think the only real one that would force a 2012 date is a d800 for obvious reasons. The reason I am skeptical is that there is zero proof of a 2012 release date, not a jot. The question was more of an attempt to explore people's reasoning rather than anything else. 

If the hypothesis of a 2012 date is true, what else must be true:
- d800 will definently be released in 2012 or
- 5d2 is selling very poorly or
- canon have publically committed to a 2012 release date

None of these have happened.

The price drop tends to elicit confirmation bias, a price drop in itself signifies nothing, it could be a sign of a price drop but then it could not, but people tend to only see what they want and expect to see and don't try and disprove their beliefs, in this case 'have canon dropped the 5d2 price before without a 5d3 release?', yes they have. As such unfortunately a price drop in the 5d2 suggests nothing.

The 5d3 rumours seem a very similar (just more drawn out) version of the iPhone 5 rumours of 2011; The more something is repeated the more truth is imputed to it, despite a lack of credibility of the source(s).

Personally I take the honest route about this in that "I don't know when it will be released".


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## tron (Dec 28, 2011)

Releasing a 5DmkIII soon after the 1Dx release might hurt sales. However, we do not know the 5DmkIII specs yet (whether it
will use the same sensor with 1Dx or not)

Personally I do not care. I will continue using my 5DmkII... However I am interested in new lens releases


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## Axilrod (Dec 28, 2011)

Jona100 said:


> Handsomerob - I think you make some good points, however I think the only real one that would force a 2012 date is a d800 for obvious reasons. The reason I am skeptical is that there is zero proof of a 2012 release date, not a jot. The question was more of an attempt to explore people's reasoning rather than anything else.
> 
> If the hypothesis of a 2012 date is true, what else must be true:
> - d800 will definently be released in 2012 or
> ...



You're one of those super technical people aren't you? Like if I were to casually say "Man I was running like the speed of light," you'd be one of those people that would be like, "OH OK, YEAH RIGHT MAN!, SO YOU WERE RUNNING 186,202.1083508132756082735 MILES PER HOUR? YOURE AN IDIOT NO HUMAN COULD DO THAT OR THEIR SKIN WOULD MELT OFF BLAH BLAH BLAH!." You police the internet waiting for someone to be incorrect so you can stick it to them right? 

Why are you being so damn cynical? Why are you so mad that some people think it will come out this year? I THINK it will come out this year, and I think this because of all of the information I've received in regards to the matter. I don't think anyone is saying "I'm 1000% sure the 5D will come out this year." And you can say "I don't know when it's coming out" all you want, but it's apparent that your answer is "2013 or later." But your answer is no better than anyone else's, just an educated guess based on the information you have. 

The 5DIII is LONG overdue, you do realize the 5DII will be 4 YEARS OLD in August right? That's ancient in the technology world. Do you know how many customers Canon would lose if it waited until 2013 to release it? Honestly I think if it weren't for all the natural disasters we would have heard an announcement already.

The reason I think its going to come out this year is because (aside from the reasons already stated) Canon Rumors has been saying it was going to be announced in Feb-Apr 2012 for over a year. And from experience, when the guy CR2's something its more than likely going to happen. 

Oh and save my screen name and come back in April so I can say I told you so.


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## Jona100 (Dec 28, 2011)

Axilrod, no offence, but like I said confirmation bias, I never said it was a 2013 release date, I said I don't know. You have interpreted my response to your own pre-existing beliefs and ignored anything that didn't fit that.

My post was not an attempt at being a contrarian, it was simply an exploration of why people take conjecture as fact. More an exploration of critical thinking of the Internet than anything else.

Critical thinking to separate fact from fiction is not a problem is it, especially on a rumours site?


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## lol (Dec 28, 2011)

Jona100 said:


> If the hypothesis of a 2012 date is true, what else must be true:
> ...
> - 5d2 is selling very poorly or
> 
> ...


The 5D2 doesn't have to be selling poorly. I think it is still selling well enough. But the bigger question is if those sales are PROFITABLE. As the price drops, it is going to squeeze profits and the only way to revive that is to bring out a new model and start the price cycle from the top again.

As for "I don't know when it will be released", remember this is a rumour site, which by definition isn't ever going to be 100%.


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## K-amps (Dec 28, 2011)

CowGummy said:


> 2012 also is an Olympic Games year.
> And more importantly - 2012 marks the 25 year anniversary of the EOS system.
> 
> I think this time round it's pretty safe to assume they will launch the 5DIII this coming year.



+1: Canon can get sentimental/nostalgic like the rest of us... I think we will see new bodies AND lenses in 2012.


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## Isaac (Dec 28, 2011)

handsomerob said:


> Yes, rumors should be taken with a grain of salt but there are actually a few indications for a 5DIII release sooner than later:
> 
> 
> product release cycle : if you consider the 3 year difference between the 5D and the 5DII, third one of the series should have been released in September 2011 already. 5DIII is maybe not completely ready yet, or they are waiting to see what Nikon will come up with. There have been a few natural disasters as well.
> ...



+1

Well said.


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## Kernuak (Dec 28, 2011)

Northlight has a Canon timeline (I expect there's one here somewhe too, but this one was easier to find).

http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/cameras/Canon_7dmk2.html#canon_timeline

While that doesn't show anything definite about release dates either, it does show that the 5D MkII and 7D are now the oldest Canon DSLRs. Even the 1D MkIV, which was released more recently, has technically been replaced by the 1D-X (although it is still available). I think there is a strong likelihood that at least the 5D MkII will be replaced next year. While it is still selling in high numbers, some aspects of the technology have long since been superceded and Canon will want to tap into the market of people wanting to upgrade from the MkII, which will boost sales over the current level of the MkII. With the upcoming olympics, Canon may also see a sales boost from replacing the 7D.


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## K-amps (Dec 28, 2011)

Kernuak said:


> ... , it does show that the 5D MkII and 7D are now the oldest Canon DSLRs. Even the 1D MkIV, which was released more recently, has technically been replaced by the 1D-X .



+1 Another Good enough reason 

And of the two, the 5d2 is even older... by several months. As a technology product, thats old... even automobiles have a 12 month cycle... at this rate, we will need to sync up 5d updates with home appliances or perhaps even furniture.


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## thepancakeman (Dec 28, 2011)

K-amps said:


> ... at this rate, we will need to sync up 5d updates with home appliances or perhaps even furniture.



I like it! "Well, time to replace the 5d and the living room carpet again..."


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## distant.star (Dec 28, 2011)

In general, I disagree with your opinion. However, I suspect you have far more experience with "Internet rumours" (sic) than I. Until this site recently (yesterday) reported reliable intel of an immanent 5D3, I was unconvinced there even would be such a product. While there has been speculation in the past year, there have not been reports with this level of reliability.

Being new here, perhaps you do not understand Canon Rumors. The CR site is not a "wild west" of rumors about Canon cameras. It is built on a foundation of informants, each with a different level of access to information about business decisions suggestive of future Canon marketing efforts. The announcement rating system in place reflects past reliability of individual informants. This is a classic intelligence gathering model, and as a consumer who wants to make thoughtful and informed decisions, I value what I read here. It has worked well for me in the past, and I see no reason why it will not continue as such.

Unless you can provide some factual basis for your "doubts" about a 5D3 release in 2012, I'll give your speculation its appropriate weight, or lack thereof. 




Jona100 said:


> Imo, Internet rumours have a unique ability to fire up confirmation bias with rocket fuel to turn conjecture into 'fact'.
> 
> Anybody else have doubts about a 2012 5d3? I mean there is no reason not for a 2013 date.


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## Jona100 (Dec 28, 2011)

Distant.star - thanks for your reply. I am not new here, just new as a person who makes a post. The point of my post was as I have mentioned not to be a contrarian, but to sort the wheat for the chaf, in isolating what exactly points to a 2012 release beyond an absolute confirmation from canon. This is classic intelligence analysis, a process where the information is tested against rules of logic to ascertain the very likely from the wishful thinking and conjecture.

What makes me doubt that 2012 is the date beyond reasonable doubt is as mentioned previously, by trying to falsify the hypothesis (a standard critical thinking and analysis task), simply asking the question "what else must be true" another way of testing the rumour (I spell it the uk way, by the way...) is to ask "what can't be true". When applying this not unreasonable test against the belief that 2012 is the date beyond reasonable doubt, it fails. 

This does not mean that a 5d2 wont be out n' about in 2012, it simply means that 2013 could easily be the year of release.

For those debating with themselves over should I buy or should I wait, a very possible 2013 date can make all the difference between buying a 5d2 now or risking being without this type of camera for possibly another 2 years.

Personally I dont see any reason why a 2013 date isn't likely, the primary motivator for canon would be a d800 which would close all betting, but until then........


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## awinphoto (Dec 28, 2011)

distant.star said:


> Being new here, perhaps you do not understand Canon Rumors. The CR site is not a "wild west" of rumors about Canon cameras. It is built on a foundation of informants, each with a different level of access to information about business decisions suggestive of future Canon marketing efforts. The announcement rating system in place reflects past reliability of individual informants. This is a classic intelligence gathering model, and as a consumer who wants to make thoughtful and informed decisions, I value what I read here. It has worked well for me in the past, and I see no reason why it will not continue as such.



I'd say Canon Rumors has a better than average reputation for getting facts... It nailed the 7D camera and announcements and does a good job with the rebels and the like.. Then again how many 24-70 possible rumors, how about the 17-40 rumor that had a CR2 rating... I was secretly hoping for that... How many about the 5d3 in 2011... I think I also remember there was even hints in early 2011 of a newer 7D soon...In the end only the real insiders will be privy to the gameplan for Canon and Nikon for that matter... Things like earthquakes, tsunami's, economy, etc... all those also throw monkey wrenches in the timeline of things... then also Canon has a nasty reputation of making preliminary announcements with prolonged release dates... the 5d2 was nearly 3 months if i remember right, the 1dx is around 5-6 months, the 200-400 is....? I think there's a good chance it's announced this coming year... who knows when it will really hit the shelves at stores... Maybe if nikon pulls the trigger first that could force Canon's hand into releasing the camera sooner than later, however that didn't work with Nikons Flagships and the 1dx... There's a chance Nikon has 2 flagship upgrades in the time span it took canon to do 1... so who knows..


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## epsiloneri (Dec 28, 2011)

Jona100 said:


> Why are people so sure that a 5d3 will be realised in 2012?



I think it has something to do with the Maya calendar... (_just kidding_). 2012 makes sense from a product cycle update point of view, but mostly it's because _we want_ the 5D3 to come out ASAP, and that wish easily turns into hope and expectation. But I wouldn't say people are _sure_ 5D3 will be released in 2012. The rumour is not rated higher than CR2, meaning we shouldn't expect it to be factual. If you're really interested in calibrating the certainty of CR2 rumours you could check how many previous CR2 rumours panned out, historically. That would actually be an interesting exercise...


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## neuroanatomist (Dec 28, 2011)

epsiloneri said:


> ...mostly it's because _we want_ the 5D3 to come out ASAP, and that wish easily turns into hope and expectation.



+1. Hope springs eternal. Last year, even though the market for 1-series bodies is substantially smaller, there was reasonable 'certainty' in some quarters that we would see a 1DsIV in users' hands by the end of 2011. Canon did announce a replacement for the 1DsIII (sort of, debatably) and the 1D IV (closer to accurate, I think) in 2011, but it won't hit shelves until 2012 (the merging of the lines was predicted well in advance by CR, a definite hit there). 

The 1DsIII was overdue for replacement based on the 3-year cycle, and the 5DII was released a year after the 1DsIII, so if that temporal gap holds, we won't see a 5DIII on the shelves until 2013. 

I certainly don't see the Olympics as a driver for a 5DIII release - it's not a sports camera. Likewise, regarding the 25th anniversary of EOS, well...Canon is shipping (or so they say...) the 1D X in March of 2012 - the same month as the launch of the EOS 650.

I think there's some validity in the D800 spurring things on, but perhaps not as much as people want to believe. First, it hasn't been announced. As was pointed out elsewhere, Canon threw down the gauntlet, so to speak, with the 1D X...will Nikon answer that with a prosumer FF body? Also, I don't think there are all that many people sitting in a fence, wondering, 'should my first/next FF camera be Canon or Nikon?' By the time a customer decides to get a camera costing >$2K, they've most likely already bought into one brand or the other. The real competitive battlefield, so to speak, is the entry-level arena - hook 'em with the best offering there, and they grow within the brand. 

So, I do think a lot of the 'certainty' comes down to hope. I'm no exception - I _hope_ Canon announces a 5DIII before the 1D X becomes available, and I _hope_ it's got vastly improved AF, a faster frame rate, more MP, better high ISO performance, and costs $2K. But most of those are better termed wishes, not hopes...


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## pedro (Dec 28, 2011)

Just guessing: If there is a D800 announcement by let's say March, then a Canon equivalent announcement by summer could be likely. The 4k cam? So what about a still oriented 5D upgrade by early 2013 based on the 1Dx sensor? Anyone?


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## Enrico (Dec 28, 2011)

I think it fair to assume/say that the Tsunami added 1 year to the prodution cycles. That affects announcment/release dates and when it will hit the shelves.

At least I think the were looking for the 1DX in early 2011 and the 5D3 in late 2011... add one year and your will be almost there... (+/- 4 months ;D)


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Dec 28, 2011)

Jona100 said:


> Imo, Internet rumours have a unique ability to fire up confirmation bias with rocket fuel to turn conjecture into 'fact'.
> 
> Anybody else have doubts about a 2012 5d3? I mean there is no reason not for a 2013 date.



Typically, pro camera bodies are updated every 3-4 years. The technology gets pretty old, and the competition produces somethinng that is substantially better. At that point, either you produce something new, or let the competition have your business.

Most people feel that a new body was planned for last year, when it was delayed by the earthquake in Japan. A new one is overdue.

I certainly expect one this year unless there is another disaster.


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## photophreek (Dec 28, 2011)

I have to agree with neuro on this one. "Hope" it seems, is driving the
5d 3 rumours. Canon is the market share leader regarding DSLR sales at about 45% with Nikon at about half Canon's share. I can't see Canon going "under" because they don't release/announce this camera in 2012. Product cycles really don't have any bearing on when a camera body will be released and this notion was dreamed up by perspective buyers trying to predict when a camera body will be announced.

Essentially, people who read this site and the information on it are purely speculating on any camera equipment announcement. This site is for entertainment and postulating only. Posters should try hard not to get too worked up about contrary opnions because in reality, we have no idea what Canon's plans are.


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## thepancakeman (Dec 28, 2011)

photophreek said:


> Product cycles really don't have any bearing on when a camera body will be released



???


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## Meh (Dec 28, 2011)

I agree with many of the sentiments posted in this thread. I do believe it is very likely that a 5D3 will be announced and released in 2012, however, it is speculation. It's fun to speculate and there's no need for tempers over divergent opinions, not even opinions about the 5D2's AF.


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Dec 28, 2011)

Meh said:


> I agree with many of the sentiments posted in this thread. I do believe it is very likely that a 5D3 will be announced and released in 2012, however, it is speculation. It's fun to speculate and there's no need for tempers over divergent opinions, not even opinions about the 5D2's AF.



+1

This site is about rumors and speculation about what will be coming. Those who take it seriously and make purchase decisions, do need to relax and enjoy.


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## handsomerob (Dec 28, 2011)

photophreek said:


> I have to agree with neuro on this one. "Hope" it seems, is driving the
> 5d 3 rumours. Canon is the market share leader regarding DSLR sales at about 45% with Nikon at about half Canon's share. I can't see Canon going "under" because they don't release/announce this camera in 2012. *Product cycles really don't have any bearing on when a camera body will be released and this notion was dreamed up by perspective buyers trying to predict when a camera body will be announced.*
> 
> Essentially, people who read this site and the information on it are purely speculating on any camera equipment announcement. This site is for entertainment and postulating only. Posters should try hard not to get too worked up about contrary opnions because in reality, we have no idea what Canon's plans are.



I believe they do. There is mostly a pattern. Or it wouldn't be called a cycle 

It's normal to regularly expect new products every few years with technology advancing this fast. Shooting at 6400 ISO was probably a dream 15 years ago, now it's simply "not enough"... (who knows, 204k will probably be clean enough 15 years from now) Camera makers know that and they try to make most profits by introducing new cash cows, regularly. This is great cause we are able to afford all those amazing cameras (like the 5DII at current prices!!) today. I consider myself lucky living in this era.


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## neuroanatomist (Dec 28, 2011)

Meh said:


> ...not even opinions about the 5D2's AF.



Wait, wait...you mean the 5DII _has_ AF?!? :  ;D

Seriously, I completely agree. Well put, +1.


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## photophreek (Dec 28, 2011)

Canon doesn't sit around in meetings and conclude...."well. the 5D product cycle is coming around, time to get out a new body". Product releases are probably decided based on competition, production availablilty, current technology and product sales volumes. It just so happens that there is a pattern.


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## Doodah (Dec 29, 2011)

Because Thom Hogan says in his blog (bythom.com):

"Sometime in early 2012 we're going to have the full FX body updates from both Canon and Nikon. In the case of the 5DII and D700 follow ups, there will be substantive pixel increases (the rumors put both in the 30's)."

And Thom Hogan's leaks (NOT his predictions though) are typically spot on.


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## Jedifarce (Dec 29, 2011)

Jona100 said:


> Imo, Internet rumours have a unique ability to fire up confirmation bias with rocket fuel to turn conjecture into 'fact'.
> 
> Anybody else have doubts about a 2012 5d3? I mean there is no reason not for a 2013 date.



I'm not sure but posters here are fairly certain about it. I think it's more of a concern for folks whom haven't purchased the 5D II yet and are on the fence. I can see the dilemma, should they make the jump to the 5D Mark II now, only to kick themselves when the Mark III comes out a month later? That would drive me crazy as well. 

My concern isn't really the Mark III, but deciding what Zeiss CP.2 primes -almost 4k each- I should invest in.


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## ronderick (Dec 29, 2011)

I'm going to tackle this subject from a different perspective:

Would the 5D2 remain on the market as a "current" model even after the release of the 5D3?

I think the situation has been a lot more clear with the recent price drop of the 5D2 under 2K. It seems like a lot of people are reacting favorably towards a full-frame body in the lower price range.

At this point, I think it would make a lot of sense to keep 5D2 on the market under 2K while introducing the 5D3 at the usual 5D-model price range.

Just some thoughts...


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## BaconBets (Dec 29, 2011)

The best way to predict what is going to happen is forget what you are hoping for and what you are expecting. Forget the timelines of the past and don't extrapolate and expect strict adherence to release patterns. Digital cameras are maturing, and the last big revolution has occurred (video) - and the camera manufacturers were even caught off guard by it.

So what you do now is pretend you are in Canon's boardroom. What strategy GOING FORWARD will help you sell the most cameras without cannibalizing your own line? We now know the 1dx is coming and what to expect from it. It is going to be a speed demon in every sense (FPS, AF, ISO). We know Nikon's D4 will be the same.

Which means a high MP FF regular body cam with pedestrian handling would complement the line and not compete with it. Expect this type of camera sooner than later.

A lower MP FF regular body with improved iso and handling would only piss in the 1dx's cornflakes.
Expect this kind of camera later than sooner.

Expect Nikon to fall in line with this, as they are also a for profit company recovering from disaster.

Wildcard - If Nikon releases a high MP D800, but also releases a D700s using the D3s sensor after the D4 is released....then all hell will break loose and Canon will have to respond.


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## wickidwombat (Dec 29, 2011)

ronderick said:


> I'm going to tackle this subject from a different perspective:
> 
> Would the 5D2 remain on the market as a "current" model even after the release of the 5D3?
> 
> ...



definately on the cards i think Nikon did that with the D90 after the D7000 came out is the D90 still a current model? it might be


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## alexanderferdinand (Dec 29, 2011)

Canon is a big player and will try to stay one.

So: if Nikon, Sony will cycle/refresh their products, so Canon will follow.
The Mark 2 is still a very good camera I like to use, although spoiled by the Autofocus of the 1D Mk4.

Nobody is sleeping their, maybe the big three are playing Mikado (first who moves has lost), waiting what the others do.

New cameras in the class A900, D700 and 5D will come, it`s the money.

Pretty sure this year.


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## Enrico (Dec 29, 2011)

Of course there are "product cycles" as in they are working on something new that we call "5D3" and that they started working on that some 3-4 years ago. Canon probably already have a few team prototyping different versions of the next "1DX2".

Then, when it comes to releasing a product and marketing that specific department will run the show and play the waiting game, getting most bang for the buck game etc... 

I think photo industry works the same as many other industries, say cars for instance. Developing a "new car" as in a totally new model takes 10 years. And that model will "live" / have a value for about ten more years. Of course you do small updates yearly, perhaps an enginge from a parallell model, interior design... (which is common started 2 years in advance). But then the model is oudated and replaced with a new one they worked on those ten years.... repeat.

I think the same goes for photo (although shorter cycles perhaps).

The 1DX came out as a new platform (ie they stoped the 10 year old earlier platform and started a new)

What they will do with the xxxD, xxD, 7D and 5D only they can tell.

But surely they talk about it in terms of product cycles.


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## K-amps (Dec 29, 2011)

ronderick said:


> I'm going to tackle this subject from a different perspective:
> 
> Would the 5D2 remain on the market as a "current" model even after the release of the 5D3?
> 
> ...



Interesting thoughts... perhaps if not for any reason but for fixed (R&D) cost coverage. from a Labor/Material/Overhead perspective, the two should cost Canon the same... however the margins on the 5d3 will be much greater because of the bump in price... would they then entertain cannibalization of the 5d3 by the 5d2?

If past history is worth anything, I would agree... they's rather keep Nikon off, and entertain a bit of losses on the bidy, since this way, we can all buy pricier EF glass.


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