# How long until the next FF body? Or buy now?



## Skulls (Nov 15, 2014)

Hey!
I'm not familiar to the Canon ecosystem and I'm not sure what choice is wiser. So if you guys could give me some advice, it'l be highly appreciated. 
If there is a new FF Canon on the horizon, how long do you think until release, based on experience with previous Canon releases in the past?
What would you do if you were like me - wait or risk and buy, and then sell it cheaper if new FF body is released eventually (can't afford to have two bodies)? 
There are good 6D deals now(5Dmk3 is ridiculously overpriced, even the second hand deals).

Cheers!


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## bholliman (Nov 15, 2014)

My guess is that the next FF body to be released will be the 5D Mk4 maybe by June of next year. 

Personally, I feel that both 5D Mk 3 and 6D prices are pretty good now. I'm happy with my 6D, but if I was buying my first FF now I would be tempted to get a 5D Mk3 at around $2500. I paid $2100 for my 6D two years ago since I bought when it first came out.


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## Dekaner (Nov 15, 2014)

The next release will either be 1) something net new 2) 1DX II or 3) 5DIV (in that order). Any of these will be far more expensive than the 6D's current pricing. The 6D won't receive an upgrade until 2) and 3), so my guess is you've got at least 12 months to wait.


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## Skulls (Nov 15, 2014)

bholliman said:


> My guess is that the next FF body to be released will be the 5D Mk4 maybe by June of next year.
> 
> Personally, I feel that both 5D Mk 3 and 6D prices are pretty good now. I'm happy with my 6D, but if I was buying my first FF now I would be tempted to get a 5D Mk3 at around $2500. I paid $2100 for my 6D two years ago since I bought when it first came out.



Thank you for your reply!
Where I live the prices of 5Dmk3(body only!) are: $3680 for new, and $2700(minimum) for a used body at ~100 000 shutter count with scratches, and whatnot.


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## sanj (Nov 15, 2014)

Skulls said:


> Hey!
> I'm not familiar to the Canon ecosystem and I'm not sure what choice is wiser. So if you guys could give me some advice, it'l be highly appreciated.
> If there is a new FF Canon on the horizon, how long do you think until release, based on experience with previous Canon releases in the past?
> What would you do if you were like me - wait or risk and buy, and then sell it cheaper if new FF body is released eventually (can't afford to have two bodies)?
> ...



Overpriced by what standards pls?


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## lintoni (Nov 15, 2014)

Unless you need top-notch AF, buy a 6D. I've a 5D3, but I bought that before the 6D was released. If I was looking to buy a FF Canon now, I'd get the 6D.


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## bobby samat (Nov 15, 2014)

a 5d3 at the current price is pretty awesome.

who knows how much the 5d4 will be.


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## Zv (Nov 15, 2014)

Buy a 6D now. Canon is deliberately slow with releasing updates to their FF lineup. Most likely the next FF camera to be released is the 5D Mk4 but I feel like the Mk 3 is still new (or maybe it just seems that way to me!). I don't think we'll see a replacement anytime soon. So rest easy on that point. 

Also, it had been rumored that the 6D Mk2 will be more upscale and hence cost more. Grab a 6D now and enjoy the affordable FF fun! The six is packed with features and IMO is a real bargain. The wifi is kinda meh but the GPS is solid and very useful if you travel or do any kind of work outdoors. Easy to keep track of where you took the shot for those re-shoots and fave places. Plus it makes mapping images on Flickr a thing of the past. 

If you shoot things that move I recommend you stretch for a 5D Mk3, the AF capabilities are well worth the extra. The 6D is quite basic in that regard. (I miss my 7D's 19 cross type points!)


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## gsealy (Nov 15, 2014)

Skulls said:


> bholliman said:
> 
> 
> > My guess is that the next FF body to be released will be the 5D Mk4 maybe by June of next year.
> ...



If I had the 5DIII passion, then I would go the Canon refurbished route. At about $2700 at least you would have the comfort of knowing that Canon worked it over and tested it to their specs. Plus you get a little warranty. I also can't argue with the person that said that the 6D is a good choice. If you wanted FF, but wanted to go real low in price, then consider going to Ebay and buying a 1D. A couple of years ago I found a 1DsII for $900 with only 20K on the shutter. I use the heck out of that camera. It takes great pictures, especially landscape, and it is solid as a rock.


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## Zv (Nov 15, 2014)

I feel like every other day there's a deal on 5D3 and 6D bodies on EBay. Couldn't OP get one of those deals or are they region locked? US only? Surely not. People buy from all over these days. $3600 for a 5D3 is madness. That's more than when it was new. 

http://www.canonrumors.com/2014/11/deal-canon-eos-6d-body-1349/


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## Dekaner (Nov 15, 2014)

Just out of curiosity - what is the rationale that the 5DIV would come out before the 1DXII? The 1DX is older and any upgrade to the 5D could potentially provide better specs/capability than the 1DX. Isn't it more likely that we'll see the 1DX come out first and then the 5DIV 6 months later with a flow down of a handful of specs?


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## lintoni (Nov 15, 2014)

Dekaner said:


> Just out of curiosity - what is the rationale that the 5DIV would come out before the 1DXII? The 1DX is older and any upgrade to the 5D could potentially provide better specs/capability than the 1DX. Isn't it more likely that we'll see the 1DX come out first and then the 5DIV 6 months later with a flow down of a handful of specs?


I agree with your reasoning.


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## Dylan777 (Nov 15, 2014)

Skulls said:


> Hey!
> I'm not familiar to the Canon ecosystem and I'm not sure what choice is wiser. So if you guys could give me some advice, it'l be highly appreciated.
> If there is a new FF Canon on the horizon, how long do you think until release, based on experience with previous Canon releases in the past?
> What would you do if you were like me - wait or risk and buy, and then sell it cheaper if new FF body is released eventually (can't afford to have two bodies)?
> ...



If that the case, I suggest you shouldn't wait for next FF.


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## LovePhotography (Nov 15, 2014)

Go to www.canonpricewatch.com/ and buy a 6D for ~$1400. What you get for the money is great photographs by almost anyone's standard.


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## Marsu42 (Nov 15, 2014)

Skulls said:


> There are good 6D deals now(5Dmk3 is ridiculously overpriced, even the second hand deals).



There is a reason for this - apart from the 6d sensor image quality the 5d3 is superior in every way.

If you happen to shoot center point only, shoot with slower lenses and don't track, go with the 6d. Remember that even *if* Canon releases a newer 5d4/6d2 anytime soon, it'll be a lot more expensive than the current models.



Dekaner said:


> The next release will either be 1) something net new 2) 1DX II or 3) 5DIV (in that order). Any of these will be far more expensive than the 6D's current pricing. The 6D won't receive an upgrade until 2) and 3), so my guess is you've got at least 12 months to wait.



I'm giving the 6d another 2 years, one year until the 5d4 release, another year to trickle down innovations to the little brother.


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## raptor3x (Nov 15, 2014)

Marsu42 said:


> There is a reason for this - apart from the 6d sensor image quality the 5d3 is superior in every way.
> 
> If you happen to shoot center point only, shoot with slower lenses and don't track, go with the 6d. Remember that even *if* Canon releases a newer 5d4/6d2 anytime soon, it'll be a lot more expensive than the current models.



I wouldn't say 5D3 is superior in every way, the 6D center point focuses better in low light and it also adds Wifi+GPS if that's something you want. Also, I'm not sure that the 5D4/6D2 will be _much_ more expensive than the current models; Canon's pricing strategy lately seems a bit more reasonable.


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## racebit (Nov 15, 2014)

To me it is very clear that:
1D is 2015,
5D is 2016,
6D is 2017.


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## dgatwood (Nov 15, 2014)

raptor3x said:


> Marsu42 said:
> 
> 
> > There is a reason for this - apart from the 6d sensor image quality the 5d3 is superior in every way.
> ...



The 5D's advantages include a better focusing system, viewfinder coverage (Whee! Three whole percent!), a faster maximum shutter speed, clean HDMI output, a faster maximum frame rate, better video IQ, and two slots (though only the CF slot is really fast enough to be usable).

The 6D's advantages are in-body GPS, in-body Wi-Fi, better sensor IQ (particularly in low light), significantly lower weight, better low-light focusing (center point only), and a faster SD card slot for easier compatibility with laptops and tablets.

For sports shooters and videographers, the 5D is a soundly better choice. For everyone else, the 6D's better IQ and better low-light handling makes it a soundly better choice even if it didn't cost half as much as the 5D Mark III. IMO, that makes the 5D Mark III overpriced for what you get. It is seriously in need of an update to bring its sensor IQ closer to parity with the 1D and 6D, and ideally, to bring its feature set up to parity with the 6D.


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## dgatwood (Nov 15, 2014)

Marsu42 said:


> I'm giving the 6d another 2 years, one year until the 5d4 release, another year to trickle down innovations to the little brother.



Seriously? I was surprised that we didn't see a new rev of the 6D at Photokina two months ago. As the Rebel of the full-frame line, I'd expect the 6D's refresh rate to be a lot closer to the 1-year Rebel rate than the 4-year high-end body rate. By two years from now, other manufacturers will be eating their lunch at the low end.


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## sb in ak (Nov 16, 2014)

To put it bluntly: Do you need it now? If yes, then get it now. Life's short and the march of technology is relentless.


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## Steve (Nov 16, 2014)

sanj said:


> Overpriced by what standards pls?



By the standards of the competition?


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## preppyak (Nov 16, 2014)

dgatwood said:


> Seriously? I was surprised that we didn't see a new rev of the 6D at Photokina two months ago. *As the Rebel of the full-frame line*, I'd expect the 6D's refresh rate to be a lot closer to the 1-year Rebel rate than the 4-year high-end body rate. By two years from now, other manufacturers will be eating their lunch at the low end.


Eh, I think that's looking at it the wrong way. While it is the cheaper option, it's still a $1000+ camera, and Canon doesnt refresh those as frequently. I think we're definitely a year out from a new 6D, and the 5dIV will probably come before it.

Either way, we are definitely a full year from having a <$1500 full-frame camera that isnt the 6D...so, unless you are fine waiting that long, I'd say 6D is the way to go.


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## jvandermerwe (Nov 16, 2014)

If you can wait 6 months...Buy the next 5D Mark IV. If you cant wait and need a new FF right away... Buy either a new 5D Mark III from B&H or Adorama, and then consider selling it for probably around $2000 when the new release comes out, or buy a good used one on eBay right now for around $2400.00. Look around, there are good deals available. 
Another excellent alternative is to go buy a used 5D Mark II. You can get them fairly cheap, it is a great camera with a lot of bells and whistles, and you will likely get all your money back on it if you can get it cheap. I have two 5 D Mark III's right now, and previously had two 5D Mark II's. I know both models very well.
But the LAST thing you do is to go buy a 6D. There is nothing wrong with the sensor..., but the camera simply does not have the functions you want from a modern camera, and when you try sell it after you have realized your major error, you will struggle to sell it for a half decent price. 
The 6D is definitely NOT a Pro camera, and not even a semi-Pro. It is nothing more than an entry level FF camera. Most people I know that have them, want to get rid of them.


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## jvandermerwe (Nov 16, 2014)

racebit said:


> To me it is very clear that:
> 1D is 2015,
> 5D is 2016,
> 6D is 2017.



When did you dream this? The 5Diii will for sure be replaced before the summer of 2015. The 5Diii's rival was the Nikon D800, and they have already released their next release = the D810. Canon wont stay behind. Expect the announcement by end of February 2015, to be available end of March, early April 2015.


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## Marsu42 (Nov 16, 2014)

dgatwood said:


> Marsu42 said:
> 
> 
> > I'm giving the 6d another 2 years, one year until the 5d4 release, another year to trickle down innovations to the little brother.
> ...



The 6d isn't supposed to be Canon's flagship or technological marvel. It is supposed to generate profit and keep switching people to Nikon if they cannot/don't want to pay €2600 for a ff camera. And looking at the parts and the 5d2 inheritance, the 6d is cheap to produce and still sells for a lot of €€€ at least where I live. This is the "external" side.

But Canon's "internal" side is always protecting their lineup to "upsell" customers. This means until there is an improved 5d4 around, they won't give the 6d a better af system as this is the main difference. If they would have wanted to be the 6d a more complete camera, they would have done it in the first place, even being under time pressure to defend against the d600 release back then... at least that's my estimation.



jvandermerwe said:


> The 6D is definitely NOT a Pro camera, and not even a semi-Pro. It is nothing more than an entry level FF camera. Most people I know that have them, want to get rid of them.



What's pro, what isn't? It can produce top-notch iq and people are shooting for money with the 6d, so it's a pro camera in my book. Unfortunately, it's also a very weak camera with an extremely mediocre core feature set for the year 2015 a.d.

One valid though for people buying new gear is: €3000+ 5d3 and less (or worse) lenses or a €1500 6d with better lens(es)? This isn't so easy and depends on what you shoot if you care about €1500 more or less.


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## pwp (Nov 16, 2014)

Zv said:


> If you shoot things that move I recommend you stretch for a 5D Mk3, the AF capabilities are well worth the extra. The 6D is quite basic in that regard. (I miss my 7D's 19 cross type points!)


It's not just things that move that benefit from the 5D3 61 point AF array...shooting portraits with a shallow DOF is a breeze with the 5D3 with the 61 point AF array with up to 41 cross-type AF sensors available (depending on the maximum aperture of the lens mounted on the camera). This is more AF points than any other FF EOS camera except the 1D-X. And surpassed by the APS-C 7DII. Being able to drop an AF point right on the subject's eye without focus/re-composing is brilliant. This is not an option with 5D2 or 6D, and the main reason I've eBay'd my otherwise brilliant little travel camera, the SL1/100D. Once you've worked with 45 or 61 AF points, it's a frustration working with anything less.

-pw


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## AJ (Nov 16, 2014)

You should buy now.

Reading internet forums like this, you might think that the next camera will be lightyears ahead of what's available now. With high expectations like this, it's no wonder that the internet crowd is disappointed every time a new camera comes out. Case in point the 7D2. 

In reality, CMOS technology has matured. While manufacturers like Canon are still able to produce marginal improvements, step-changes like 10D-20D and 30D-40D are a thing of the past. I'm sure the 6D2 and 5D4 will create disappointment in the internet forums. I'm also quite sure that they'll be awesome cameras, just like their predecessors. And I'm also quite sure you'll have a hard time, looking at screen images or prints, telling which camera a certain image came from.


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## Skulls (Nov 16, 2014)

Thank you all for your help!

Judging by your replies and everything else I've read, I don't think it's wise to jump the Canon wagon right now. There are too many uncertainties there. I don't feel like investing in lenses and accessories, based on guesses and hopes. 
Canon, like every other company, make money and they'll do whatever's best for them, not for me. 
So, I'm going to wait until the end of December and if there are still no FF news coming from Canon, I'll go with Nikon D750 and 24-70. It's out of the question to wait another 6 months or more to find out IF their majesty, Canon are going to do something. Not just because I'm impatient - simply because life is too short to be wasted on blind expectations.

Cheers!


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## AshtonNekolah (Nov 16, 2014)

Skulls said:


> Thank you all for your help!
> 
> Judging by your replies and everything else I've read, I don't think it's wise to jump the Canon wagon right now. There are too many uncertainties there. I don't feel like investing in lenses and accessories, based on guesses and hopes.
> Canon, like every other company, make money and they'll do whatever's best for them, not for me.
> ...




If I was you (this is my own honest opinion) I would focus on what im going to be shooting and what I want my pictures to look like, any camera today will give you top notch image quality so forget the camera. what you want is to focus on your lens options, if you want more options to focal range get a canon. now if you want to shoot fast things get the 5D3 if your skills are not sharp, (but if it is, a 6D will do the same thing,) it will be more forgiving with moving things, for your lens choices you will already be in the place to get the right glass that fills your field of view. When your ready to sell the 5D3 will hold better value.


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## Marsu42 (Nov 16, 2014)

Skulls said:


> I don't feel like investing in lenses and accessories, based on guesses and hopes.



"Investing" isn't smart with any brand as you're bound to lose a lot of €€€. It's pure consumption unless you're a pro making money with the gear.



Skulls said:


> So, I'm going to wait until the end of December and if there are still no FF news coming from Canon, I'll go with Nikon D750 and 24-70.



The d750 seems to be a terrific camera and thus a good choice. Note that brands isn't all about sensors and release dates, a lot of people go Canon for the good ergonomics and cps service.


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## Vikmnilu (Nov 17, 2014)

Hello,

I would buy now. based on personal experience. I had a 10D for 7 years (from 2005 to 2012). I took very good pictures with it and it was overall a good camera, BUT when I upgraded to the 5D Mark II I realized that I could had bought it much earlier. Why? Because the upgrade was huge. Ony the possibility to shoot at ISO higher than 400 was worth it. Imagine the possibilities that opened up for me... amazing it was the change.

Although I do not see the point in buying a camera every year and just after its announcement, I will not wait again 7 years to buy the next model. I have had the 5DII for almost 3 years now and I thinking to upgade within a year depending on price and announcements. maybe 6D + 7D mark II (I am developing my wildlife photography) or 5D mark III. Or whatever comes next. 

Think about that if you keep on waiting you can always wait for the next model, as the technology goes and goes and goes.

Hope it helps

Victor


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## e17paul (Nov 17, 2014)

Marsu42 said:


> Skulls said:
> 
> 
> > I don't feel like investing in lenses and accessories, based on guesses and hopes.
> ...



It also depends upon available lenses. For example, I have become attached to my 24 IS, and could not buy an equivalent to fit a Nikon or Sony, apart from switching to a zoom. That means that there is no point considering a brand switch, for me. It all depends which manufacture makes the best combination of bodies/lenses/accessories for your purposes and personal preference.


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## tayassu (Nov 17, 2014)

I would not wait for a new body to arrive for you, unless you have several CR2's on here or even a CR3 pointing to an announcement not far from now.
Buy the body you can get now or you'll never get a body, because when the 5DIV is out, most will complain about the price, everyone is going to wait for it to come down and then, the 6DII will appear... 
round and round it goes, where it stops nobody knows...


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## Marsu42 (Nov 17, 2014)

e17paul said:


> It also depends upon available lenses. For example, I have become attached to my 24 IS



Hmmyes, that's indeed a new one. But as far as I see it, the "usual suspects" lenses are available for most mounts, from the original brand or 3rd party. Canon has the ts-e lenses and some nice pro gear like the ubiquitous 70-200L/2.8.

But on the bottom realm of the food chain, I don't see anything unique about Canon - except for their IS primes, so thanks for pointing this out. Question how many stills shooters are really desperate for IS on a prime, and for the video crowd a Canon dslr isn't first choice anymore. My guess is most people want IS on their slower zoom and use a prime for movement in low light. Ymmv.



tayassu said:


> round and round it goes, where it stops nobody knows...



... it stops when you've spend all your money :-o


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## sb in ak (Nov 17, 2014)

The only real downside with Canon right now is that they are marginally behind in sensor tech, but their overall system is superior to Nikon IMO (service, lenses, etc.). 

The best piece of advice I've heard is that you buy your camera for your lenses. Not the other way around.


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## dgatwood (Nov 17, 2014)

dilbert said:


> Remember that the vast majority (around 95%) of people never buy another lens after their original purchase of a DSLR.



I'd love to know how someone can generate such statistics. I mean, you can't correlate sales figures, because you have no idea whether people are buying a body to replace an existing one or buying one fresh. And you can't even assume that people who buy one with a kit lens are new buyers, because they might turn around and sell the lens on eBay at more than the difference in price between the kit and the body-only price, or they might be buying the kit lens to have as a "beater" lens for when they go to the beach or whatever.

Also, even assuming the whole "people don't upgrade" thing is true for entry-level bodies, the main reason for that is because lots of people buy them, try them, conclude that they can't deal with the size and bulk, and go back to shooting photos with their cell phones. That doesn't mean that someone who actually plans to shoot for more than a week with a DSLR shouldn't choose a camera based on what lenses are available. 

Also, to the extent that the "never upgrade" thing is true, it means that the manufacturers need to improve their kit lenses, because a lot of folks won't upgrade, and will be daunted by the low-quality images that they get compare with what they were expecting. This leads to people giving up before they find a reason to buy a better lens.


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## Zv (Nov 18, 2014)

dgatwood said:


> dilbert said:
> 
> 
> > Remember that the vast majority (around 95%) of people never buy another lens after their original purchase of a DSLR.
> ...



It could also be said that by creating a really good kit lens that performs exceptionally it might dissuade people from upgrading or purchasing a second lens. I think the IQ of the kit lenses available now is already pretty good. 

I'll add that I thought the 18-55 kit lens (the older version without STM) was the best thing since sliced bread .... Until I bought the plastic fantastic 50mm f/1.8, that blew me away and was almost certainly the gateway lens for my gear lust! That's smart marketing from Canon! IQ improves but then you thirst for AF speed, and so the endless cycle continues! Hahaha!


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## sanj (Nov 18, 2014)

jvandermerwe said:


> racebit said:
> 
> 
> > To me it is very clear that:
> ...



When did you dream this?


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## e17paul (Nov 18, 2014)

Zv said:


> dgatwood said:
> 
> 
> > dilbert said:
> ...



Compative lens and camera sales figures give this away.


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## lintoni (Nov 18, 2014)

dilbert said:


> dgatwood said:
> 
> 
> > dilbert said:
> ...


That you've made some numbers up to justify your 95% statistic.


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## Maui5150 (Nov 18, 2014)

dilbert said:


> Remember that the vast majority (around 95%) of people never buy another lens after their original purchase of a DSLR.



Please provide a legitimate survey/research to this fact.

I believe if you are talking CAMERAS as a whole, that may be true since Point and Shoots do not take other lenses (though some will take adapters for macro, etc)

Empirically, the stat in my own experience is utter bulls^&*t.

For myself, multiple bodies and lenses.
My father, more a hobbiest, multiple lenses
My sister, more to take pics of the kids, even with a T5i she has 3 lenses
A Doctor friend - has about 4 lenses
Another racing friend - 4 lenses

Ironically, my sister and myself are the only Canon shooters in that crowd, the rest Nikon, but I can't think of a person I know casually who owns a DSLR body and does not own multiple lenses

I am excluding others I know who are professional or semi-Professional (actually on that side I know about 75% Canon shooters). If I go into that realm, of those I personally know, I am at about 65 - 70

So statistically, as I approach 100 people (at least 70% the way there) I cannot think of one person I know or have met who owns a Dslr and does not have at least one more lense, and the average number is somewhere between 3 and 4 (I am at 7 and soon to be 8) 

I deliberately tried to go into thinking about more family, non photographers, non hobbiest, but, those folks tended to break into more point and shoot or camera phone. 

Seriously

I would be more surprised if 50% of those who buy a DSLR do not by at least one additional lens with 12 months of getting their camera. 

I have a proposition for you...

Lets do this.

For every DSLR owner you find that has owned their camera more than a year and has only used a kit lens, I will give you $1

For every DSLR owner I find that has owned their camera and have purchased at least one or more lenses beyond what came with that camera (including those who purchased body only because they wanted a better lens ) you will give me $20. 

By your statistics, this gives me a slight edge of $5 per $100

Professional and Hobbyiest shooters can be included. 

I would like to also give a warning... if you look at polls like this: http://digital-photography-school.com/how-many-lenses-do-you-own-poll/

9% say they do not own DSLRs
9% say they only own one lens
23% own 2
59% own 3 or more.

Out of 36244
3247 are excluded because they do not own a DSLR

Congratulations, 3263 own only one lens.. I owe you $3263... but

29522 own more than one lens.... OUCH

You owe me $590,440, minus the $3263 I owe you... 

I will give you a little break and lets just call it $585,000

By that poll, about 10% own only a kit lens, and in fact 3x as many people own 5 or more lenses.

And given who you are... I would prefer CASH.


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## Random Orbits (Nov 18, 2014)

dgatwood said:


> dilbert said:
> 
> 
> > Remember that the vast majority (around 95%) of people never buy another lens after their original purchase of a DSLR.
> ...



Probably not 95% if Canon production statistics can be used as a guide. In April 2014, Canon surpassed 100 million EF lenses. In February 2014, Canon produced its 70 millionth EF camera (film and digital).


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## Mr_Canuck (Nov 18, 2014)

Remember that the vast majority (around 95%) of people never buy another lens after their original purchase of a DSLR.
[/quote]

Exact inverse on most forums I've been a part of. But a different crowd...


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## andrewflo (Nov 18, 2014)

I'd probably try to snag a 6D at the ~$1400 price point that is going around.

The 5DIV and 6DII will be far out of your budget if you think the current 5DIII is overpriced.

And the 6D is an outstanding camera if you aren't concerned with top of the line autofocusing and moderate video quality (only a professional might be bothered by the 6D's moire and aliasing in video).


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## dgatwood (Nov 18, 2014)

Maui5150 said:


> I would like to also give a warning... if you look at polls like this: http://digital-photography-school.com/how-many-lenses-do-you-own-poll/
> 
> 9% say they do not own DSLRs
> 9% say they only own one lens
> ...



Unless that's a separate stat, I don't think those numbers tell you anything about whether they own a kit lens. There are people who buy a body and a single lens separately because they don't like the kit lens. There are also folks who buy a kit, then break the kit lens and replace it with another lens. They only own one lens (usably), but it isn't the kit lens. And there are folks who decide to upgrade their lens from the kit lens, and sell the kit lens for a little extra cash. I don't think it is computationally feasible to model such a complex marketplace without a direct, randomly sampled survey asking "Did you buy your camera with a kit lens? Do you still use it? Do you own any other lenses?"


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## dgatwood (Nov 18, 2014)

Random Orbits said:


> Probably not 95% if Canon production statistics can be used as a guide. In April 2014, Canon surpassed 100 million EF lenses. In February 2014, Canon produced its 70 millionth EF camera (film and digital).



Again, this tells you nothing of value, other than that Canon sold a few more lenses than cameras. I suspect that most people do *not* regularly upgrade their lenses (if ever), but rather buy new lenses of different varieties. By contrast, most people *do* eventually upgrade their camera bodies.

Depending on the percentage of kit lenses in that mix:


If most of the lenses sold are kit lenses, then most people never buy a second lens, and most users never replace their cameras. As a consequence, users have, on average, about 1.4 lenses each.
If most of the lenses sold are individual lenses, then most people *do* buy a second lens, and most people do eventually replace their cameras with newer models. If you assume that the average user goes through three bodies before upgrading a lens to a similar model (which is probably not far from reality), that means the average user probably owns about 4 lenses.


But even if we knew that information, that still wouldn't tell you what percentage of users never upgrade. If users own 4 lenses on average, you could take twenty people, and nineteen could own one lens, and the twentieth could own 61 lenses, and you'd average out to four lenses each, but 95% of people would still be using the kit lens. Such an extreme imbalance is, IMO, highly unlikely. But you could easily have ten people who have seven lenses and ten people who have only one.


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## James Lee (Nov 19, 2014)

Your decision is absolutely correct. 

I have a similar situation as you. At this time, I own canon APS-C cameras and several lens, and I am planing to upgrade to full frame camera this holiday. At the beginning I want to get 5D3 or 6D, but the announcement of Nikon D810, especially D750 changed my opinion. I will wait till Dec to see what will happen, if canon still refuse to drop the price of 5D3 or 6D significantly, definitely I will choose Nikon D750, which has Similar function, better CMOS, and lower price. and sell all my canon gears. Canon has to go forward, including announcing new FF bodies and lowering down 5D3/6D. It is really unwise for canon to keep the price of 5D3/6D steady at this time. 



Skulls said:


> Thank you all for your help!
> 
> Judging by your replies and everything else I've read, I don't think it's wise to jump the Canon wagon right now. There are too many uncertainties there. I don't feel like investing in lenses and accessories, based on guesses and hopes.
> Canon, like every other company, make money and they'll do whatever's best for them, not for me.
> ...


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