# According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest



## pedro (Aug 29, 2011)

"We've had another comment (thanks) suggesting that 5D3 development was seriously hampered by the events in Japan earlier this year, and that efforts were concentrated on the 1Ds3 replacement - any 5D3 is unlikely to ship before the end of 2012 at the very earliest. "

http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/cameras/Canon_5d3.html


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## Shnookums (Aug 29, 2011)

Another very good news in favor of a 1Ds replacement. I hope that the earthquake will not have hampered the quality of the new 1Ds...


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## Ivar (Aug 29, 2011)

pedro said:


> 5D3 is unlikely to ship before the end of 2012 at the very earliest.



I think it is too dramatically phrased, I would say it is the latest, not earliest. 

What makes timing estimates more complex is competition, even from Canon viewpoint (meaning even they have no precise idea but rather estimates). They most certainly have some sort of answer ready when forced by the competition.


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## mbiedermann (Aug 29, 2011)

Agreed - That rumor smells to me as coming from someone playing games with us poor souls longing for the 5D3. There is no way the 5D3 will be as delayed as end of 2012â€¦


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## Chewy734 (Aug 29, 2011)

mbiedermann said:


> Agreed - That rumor smells to me as coming from someone playing games with us poor souls longing for the 5D3. There is no way the 5D3 will be as delayed as end of 2012â€¦



A rumor is just that... a rumor. But, at the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if it were true. I remember this time last year and "rumors" were telling us the 5D3 would be available in December of 2010. Look at where we are now, nearly a year later, and no official announcements.


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## pedro (Aug 29, 2011)

mbiedermann said:


> Agreed - That rumor smells to me as coming from someone playing games with us poor souls longing for the 5D3. There is no way the 5D3 will be as delayed as end of 2012â€¦



poor souls...nay...while my 30D gently clicks...but curious about high iso abilities and focus system...whenever it may hit the street, I'll let it walk about 18 month into its product cycle reading early adopters reports...meanwhile the price tag will get a bit lower as well ;-)


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 29, 2011)

mbiedermann said:


> There is no way the 5D3 will be as delayed as end of 2012â€¦



Now, _that_ statement smells to me as coming from some poor soul longing for a 5DIII. 

I have never bought into the idea that Canon will release a 5DIII before a 1DsIV. The latter is older, more in need of an upgrade, and will likely be released first. If (a big IF) we se an announcement for a 1DsIV coming out soon, that puts the 1Ds line on a 4-year replacement, so if that gap trickles down to the 5D line, late 2012 makes perfect sense.


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## gene_can_sing (Aug 29, 2011)

Let see, Sony is set to release some very good Cameras according to early tests of their cheapo $600 camera, 

http://www.eoshd.com/content/3784/nex-5n-demolishes-ep-3-at-high-isos-even-beats-5d-mk-ii-nikon-d7000

and Nikon is set to release some new full frame DSLRs soon. Canon has to react.

Remember, Canon won't lose the users who are heavily vested in equipment (like myself). What they will lose are all the newbies and future pros. Once you start investing in a system, there will be no going back. And if there is a 1 1/4 year lag time till the next 5D3, that's a lot of newbies going to Sony and Nikon for a lifetime of usage.

I seriously doubt Canon will wait that long. Many people will be pissed off, including myself. The only person that will be happy is Neuromancer.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 29, 2011)

gene_can_sing said:


> Remember, Canon won't lose the users who are heavily vested in equipment (like myself). What they will lose are all the newbies...
> 
> I seriously doubt Canon will wait that long. Many people will be pissed off, including myself. The only person that will be happy is Neuromancer.



How many newbies jump right into a FF dSLR? Even if we see neither a 1DsIV nor a 5DIII this year or early next, I know we'll still see a T4i/650D in 1Q2012. The Rebel line pays Canon's bills.

Why get pissed off? Does the gear you have right now suck so bad that you are desparate for a replacement? My 7D and 5DII still take good pictures. Yes, I've got a wad of cash just waiting for a 1DsIV...but until one is available, I'll keep happily clicking away, thank you very much.


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## bvukich (Aug 29, 2011)

gene_can_sing said:


> The only person that will be happy is Neuromancer.



That's not an entirely fair assessment of his statements.

Besides the satisfaction of making a correct prediction, I doubt that delay would make anyone actually happy. I think that he is making a very realistic, though slightly pessimistic, prediction. He also has sound logic to back up that prediction.

That being said... God I hope he's wrong! I want a 5D3 to be released SO badly, enough that it probably clouds my objectivity in evaluating rumors, greatly favoring my desires over reality.


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## Rincewind (Aug 29, 2011)

Well I for one am desperate for it to come out now, not that I will buy it immediately. By about May next year it will have good availability and the price has found its level. That is when I want to buy a new camera. You can see from my sorry little footer below and a short thread from a few weeks ago about hot pixels that my old kit is getting rather long in the tooth. Some of us are holding out desperately for this camera...


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## TexPhoto (Aug 29, 2011)

All the Facts we have:
1. The first 5D was replaced after 3 years.
2. Dude, That was like 3 years ago!
3. There was a catastrophe in Japan the like of which we have not seen before.

So, Is it possible: "According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest" Yes. In fact we can say for absolute certain it will be before, during, or after late 2012.


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## awinphoto (Aug 29, 2011)

neuroanatomist said:


> mbiedermann said:
> 
> 
> > There is no way the 5D3 will be as delayed as end of 2012â€¦
> ...



But that makes too much logical sense for CEO's and big wigs at Canon (or any other company for that matter) to go by... What they care about is market share/money coming in (profits)/and reputation. The 5d is a better seller and will sell more than the 1d's and will have a higher return on investment hence the profit and market share portions of the formula... The 1d's are all about prestige and reputation... I dont think Canon at all sits back, in this economy and says (this is older so we will replace this first)... it's about what will give us the biggest volume of sales and is more profitable... Hence why rebels are upgraded yearly and pro cameras not..


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 29, 2011)

awinphoto said:


> But that makes too much logical sense for CEO's and big wigs at Canon (or any other company for that matter) to go by... What they care about is market share/money coming in (profits)/and reputation. The 5d is a better seller and will sell more than the 1d's and will have a higher return on investment hence the profit and market share portions of the formula... The 1d's are all about prestige and reputation... I dont think Canon at all sits back, in this economy and says (this is older so we will replace this first)... it's about what will give us the biggest volume of sales and is more profitable... Hence why rebels are upgraded yearly and pro cameras not..



Agreed - but Canon can point to current sales figures for the 5DII that are still quite high. On Amazon.com, the 5DII is the best selling full frame dSLR, and the 19th best-selling dSLR on their top-100 list (next highest FF is the Nikon D700 at #30). Gene_can_warble frequently begs us to stop buying 5DII's so Canon will release a 5DIII, and while I don't think that Canon has the 5DIII wrapped up with a bow and ready to ship tomorrow, he's right that sales of the 5DII are still strong - perhaps strong enough to deflate the urgency of releasing a 5DIII.


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## TAR (Aug 29, 2011)

it is just a matter of time , all depends on nikon d700 replacement.


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## unfocused (Aug 29, 2011)

A little chilling out is in order here. Plus, a little logic.

Is any company going to release a budget model of their product that has more and better features than their flagship? Not likely. So, by logic, that puts the 5D MkIII after a IDs MkIV.

Has the competition released a superior product that Canon must compete with? Lots of rumors, but nothing yet from Nikon and there are no other competitors at the 5D or IDs level. 

Where is the fiercest competition right now? Not in the DSLR lines, that's for sure. It's in the mirror-less and in the "enthusiast prestige-rangefinder" category (FUJI).

Where is the profit? Sorry to disappoint, but it's not in any full frame DSLR, it's in Point-and-Shoots, Mirror-less and entry-level DSLRs. 

What REAL deadlines might Canon be facing? I see only two plausible and immovable deadlines: the 2012 Summer Olympics and Photokina 2012. It's not an absolute must that Canon has to have new product available for either event, but if they have products in the pipeline, they'd most likely want to have something available for both. 

Is there a real competitor in the DSLR line that has actually been announced? The only one I am aware of is Sony's a77, which is a competitor to the 7D and not to any full-frame model. 

If Canon is feeling any pressure at all, it is likely to be on the mirror-less, G12/rangefinder and 7D fronts, since that is where competitors are showing up.

So, don't shoot the messengers. Neuro's analysis may not be popular, but it's probably correct.


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## Enrico (Aug 29, 2011)

Has anyone read through any annual report or anything like that? 
In all these threads we all tend to base our arguments on what bodies sells the most: 
xxxD vs xxD vs 7D vs 5D2 vs 1Dx
(based on profit, not pure turn around)

Has anyone done this homework and can tell me (us). Beacause if I knew those figures, and could give ourselves an estimate on the pure marketing value in a new 1D and many white lenses during the Olympics... than we could produce fabulous rumors as well...

Personally I don't have a clue, but I have learned that I am often wrong when guessing which body / car whatever is bringing the most dollars to the company.


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## awinphoto (Aug 29, 2011)

neuroanatomist said:


> awinphoto said:
> 
> 
> > But that makes too much logical sense for CEO's and big wigs at Canon (or any other company for that matter) to go by... What they care about is market share/money coming in (profits)/and reputation. The 5d is a better seller and will sell more than the 1d's and will have a higher return on investment hence the profit and market share portions of the formula... The 1d's are all about prestige and reputation... I dont think Canon at all sits back, in this economy and says (this is older so we will replace this first)... it's about what will give us the biggest volume of sales and is more profitable... Hence why rebels are upgraded yearly and pro cameras not..
> ...



Do you or anyone know whether sales for the 5d (classic) was still strong selling when the 5d mark II came out? I just feel, given limited resources, the economy is in the tank, profits and company viability is at the forefront of the canon exec's minds, that they will want kinda a shoe in/sure thing as far as a semi high ticket camera that will sell well... When they think in their minds... seriously, how many 1d's would they move if they came out with a new 1d(s)? In this economy, other than the cream of the crop, high budget, agency and or freelance photographers, who would plop 8 grand down, or even 7 grand on a new top of the line camera? Who wants to put the over/under betting line around 1 million units? Now they come out with a 5d and the over/under units jumps up to 5-7 million (within the first few months...). I think the margin of profit would be enough to make it worth their while..


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 29, 2011)

awinphoto said:


> Do you or anyone know whether sales for the 5d (classic) was still strong selling when the 5d mark II came out? I just feel, given limited resources, the economy is in the tank, profits and company viability is at the forefront of the canon exec's minds, that they will want kinda a shoe in/sure thing as far as a semi high ticket camera that will sell well... When they think in their minds... seriously, how many 1d's would they move if they came out with a new 1d(s)? In this economy, other than the cream of the crop, high budget, agency and or freelance photographers, who would plop 8 grand down, or even 7 grand on a new top of the line camera? Who wants to put the over/under betting line around 1 million units? Now they come out with a 5d and the over/under units jumps up to 5-7 million (within the first few months...). I think the margin of profit would be enough to make it worth their while..



No idea what sales of the 5D were like when the 5DII came out, but given that it was the only 'affordable' FF camera for quite a while, it was probably still doing quite well (but then, the D700 release just preceeded the 5DII, and probably impacted Canon's timing, just as a D800 could, if Nikon releases that).

I agree that a 5DIII will certainly generate more profit for Canon than a 1DsIV - much more, and I doubt Canon will sell more than a million units of any 1Ds camera in a fiscal year. The real questions are whether the _differential_ between a 5DIII and the current 5DII profits would be higher than profit from a 1DsIV, and how much Canon feels releasing a 5DIII before a 1DsIV will hurt 1DsIV sales.

My personal guess is that there will not be much of a time lag between 1DsIV and 5DIII announcements. They might even make a big splash and announce them simultaneously. My feeling is that unlike the current models, the two new models will not share the same sensor, and that in addition to the pro build and other features, the 1DsIV will offer a higher resolution sensor than the 5DIII. Knowing Canon's past history of using AF performance to differentiate among models, I also suspect they'll handicap the 5DIII with a less-than-stellar AF system. While I doubt they'll recycle the 5D's system yet again (God, I hope not, although I wouldn't put it past them!), I speculate it will still have 9 + 6 points, but all the user-selectable ones will be cross-type.


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## Flake (Aug 29, 2011)

"Is any company going to release a budget model of their product that has more and better features than their flagship? Not likely. So, by logic, that puts the 5D MkIII after a IDs MkIV."

Erm well that's exactly what Canon did with the 5D MkII released just after the 1Ds MkIII. The 5D MkII has a better LCD display and a sensor with better microlenses, many believe that the 5D MkII has better IQ as a result.


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## awinphoto (Aug 29, 2011)

Flake said:


> "Is any company going to release a budget model of their product that has more and better features than their flagship? Not likely. So, by logic, that puts the 5D MkIII after a IDs MkIV."
> 
> Erm well that's exactly what Canon did with the 5D MkII released just after the 1Ds MkIII. The 5D MkII has a better LCD display and a sensor with better microlenses, many believe that the 5D MkII has better IQ as a result.



Also, they wouldn't (again) add a camera that had better features than their flagship at the same time again (5d m2 and 1ds 3) but Given the time passed i'm sure everyone would understand a new 5d m3 as long as a far superior 1ds is shortly coming... it'd be cool to release them together as neuro suggested but that may be asking for too much.


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## Rincewind (Aug 29, 2011)

If model A has X features and Model B has X+1 features, Model B is the flagship because it has more features. Now, if model Amk2 has X+3 features and Model Bmk2 has X+2 features, Model Amk2 is now the flagship because it has more features. It is not the name that makes it a flagship it is the feature set.

I am a product manager in a not so distant industry to the light industry. If this was my product range I would launch the 1D (of whatever version:s, mk4, mk5 whatever) first to a place stake in the ground and say "beat this". Then the 5Dmk3 would come out later with a reduced feature set. If the products are good and well costed, the turnover and margin will work out well over the lifetime of the product. Do not make short term decisions (e.g. someone has an announcement next Tues) based on long term factors (the technology, business performance, etc.). That is how product managers think. I know because I am one!


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 29, 2011)

Flake said:


> Erm well that's exactly what Canon did with the 5D MkII released just after the 1Ds MkIII.



Just after? No...a full year after. Although the xD lines have product cycles that are much longer than one year, I would bet that sales of Mk-whatever updates are highest in the first year in large part because of the upgrade market (as opposed to de novo Canon users). That one year gap allowed time for most 1DsII users to get 1DsIII's, before the cheaper option became available. If Canon releases a 5DIII first, many 1DsIII users will go that route and then possibly _not_ get a 1DsIV when it comes. Also, releasing a consumer FF body before a pro FF body may give pros the impression that Canon doesn't care about them. While that may be true from a _direct_ financial standpoint (there just aren't that many 1-series shooters out there), from an indirect standpoint (i.e. marketing), keeping the pros happy boosts sales. Granted, it's rare for high profile pros to switch camps, but it does happen (e.g. former Canon Explorer of Light Ole JÃ¸rgen Liodden is now a Nikon Ambassador, and Art Wolfe went the other way). Allegedly, Liodden switched because when he asked Canon for a 1D IV they didn't give him one when he wanted, so he called up Nikon and they immediately sent him a D3S and a D3X with a whole bag of lenses. Unhappy pro, indeed...



Rincewind said:


> If model A has X features and Model B has X+1 features, Model B is the flagship because it has more features. Now, if model Amk2 has X+3 features and Model Bmk2 has X+2 features, Model Amk2 is now the flagship because it has more features. It is not the name that makes it a flagship it is the feature set.



The 1-series are the flagships by design - integrated grip, highest build quality, etc. Yes, features are important. But to take your logic to an extreme, the new Rebel T3i/600D has Live View, video, and goes up to ISO6400 - all features which the 1DsIII lacks. So, is the T3i the new flagship? Egads, I hope not...


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 29, 2011)

If the 5DIII and 1DsIV will use the same sensor and the 5DIII improves substantially on the 5DII's shotrcomings (mainly AF), I would bet the 5DIII will be released a year or so after a 1DsIV, so the two will be differentiated by time. If they are temporally close, or the 5DIII is released first, there will have to be a BIG feature gap, and I suspect that will mean a crippled 5DIII rather than a super-enhanced 1DsIV. 

So, which would people rather have?

1) A 5DIII that uses the same sensor as the 1DsIV and has a much better AF system than the 5DII, but is not released for over a year after the 1DsIV?

...or...

2) A 5DIII that offers a couple more megapixels than the 5DII, a slightly better AF system, and maybe 0.5 more fps, and is otherwise the same in most respects as the 5DII, but comes out this year?


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## Rincewind (Aug 29, 2011)

Again, with my PM's hat on, I would divide the range in to two or more categories that I think we can all agree on. My example, after the original statement of principle, cited the 1D and 5D. They sit in a very different category to the 1000D, 600D, 60D and 7D. It is not just based on the core technology (FF vs. crop) but also the surround feature set, which includes some very Pro oriented features that are unlikely to be seen on entry level cameras, even after many years of trickle-down.

To answer Neuroanatomist's question: number 1 because that is what a PM would do and number 2 please because I want a new camera now.


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## niko (Aug 29, 2011)

neuroanatomist said:


> If the 5DIII and 1DsIV will use the same sensor and the 5DIII improves substantially on the 5DII's shotrcomings (mainly AF), I would bet the 5DIII will be released a year or so after a 1DsIV, so the two will be differentiated by time. If they are temporally close, or the 5DIII is released first, there will have to be a BIG feature gap, and I suspect that will mean a crippled 5DIII rather than a super-enhanced 1DsIV.
> 
> So, which would people rather have?
> 
> ...



I would agree with this line of thought, if this was 2010 and we were ahead of the 1Ds release, however it is now late 2011 with still no 1Ds in sight. - I am inclined to believe that no leaks = no imminent announcement, since that is the well established precedent within the DSLR releases.

With it being 2011 and the 1Ds over 1 year past its "scheduled" release date, perceived or otherwise, the expectations have certainly gone up and judging by the missing flagship, Canon has taken a different path to the next release cycle. I for one, believe that Canon will differentiate the 1Ds and 5D first and foremost by the sensor used, with the 1Ds being much higher MP while the 5D maints a level close to the current sensor, leaving room to address the 5D AF (hopefully it is not just wishfull thinking on my part ).

As always, it would be difficult to come to any conclusions for the 1Ds/5D series using only the available (very limited) precedent as data.


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## unfocused (Aug 29, 2011)

> In this economy, other than the cream of the crop, high budget, agency and or freelance photographers, who would plop 8 grand down, or even 7 grand on a new top of the line camera?



That's a very good argument in favor of releasing a 1dsIV before a new 5D. The market for flagship products is always less sensitive to the economy. 1Ds customers fall into two categories â€“ those who need the product to earn a living and can't afford to risk losing work because their equipment isn't equal to their competitors and those who have the disposable income to spend as much as they want on a product. Neither of these targets are impacted as much by the economy as customers at the 5D end of the scale.



> If this was my product range I would launch the 1D (of whatever version:s, mk4, mk5 whatever) first to a place stake in the ground and say "beat this". Then the 5Dmk3 would come out later with a reduced feature set.



Exactly.



> My example, after the original statement of principle, cited the 1D and 5D. They sit in a very different category to the 1000D, 600D, 60D and 7D.



Just because it's fun to cause problems, I will quibble. I think there are really three categories. I would put the 1D bodies into one category, the 5D and 7D into another and all the others into a third. While this forum is dominated by full-frame enthusiasts, my personal, non-scientific observation of the real world is that individuals who earn their living from photography at the modest/middle-class level (wedding photographers, freelancers, small and mid-market photojournalists) seem to be a mixture of 5D and 7D users. 

Just one example: I've had the misfortune to attend a number of weddings in the last couple of years and have noticed that while most use 5D's, there are a fair number of 7D users as well. Some mix the two bodies. I have yet to see any wedding photographer using a 1D. (They may be out there, but not at weddings in my socioeconomic category.)

I don't pretend to know where the market is going. I'm not convinced anyone, including Nikon and Canon really knows either. (Not that they don't do a lot of market research, but because the market itself is changing rapidly) But, it seems from my narrow vantage point that the distance between the 5D and the 1D is increasing and the distance between the 7D and the 5D is narrowing.

I still believe that one of the big challenges facing Canon is what to do about video in the 5D. I don't think they anticipated the popularity that the camera would enjoy with video and filmmakers. Now they have to figure out how to satisfy two very different markets. Some months ago, I suggested that the biggest challenge for Canon may be trying to meet both demands in a single body. I still believe they will only split the 5D line if there is absolutely no way they feel they can produce a camera optimized for both film and stills. 

Finally, I tend to agree with Neuro that we could well see different sensors in the 1Ds than in the 5D. If that is the case, we could also see both bodies announced at or about the same time.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 29, 2011)

unfocused said:


> the distance between the 5D and the 1D is increasing and the distance between the 7D and the 5D is narrowing.



I don't know that the 5D and 1D are really even close, except that Canon chose to put the same sensor into the two current models in those respective lines. Formally put (in terminology familiar to those who've taken standardized tests):

1Ds : 1D :: 5DII : 7D

Or longhand, the relationship between the 1Ds and 1D lines is similar to that between the 5D and 7D lines - fundamentally, it's about still/studio utility vs. sports/action utility, or if you prefer, larger sensor vs. faster frame rates.


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## gmrza (Aug 29, 2011)

neuroanatomist said:


> mbiedermann said:
> 
> 
> > There is no way the 5D3 will be as delayed as end of 2012â€¦
> ...



I think also, if Canon could have their way, they would probably like to put a year's gap between the 1DsIV and the 5DIII. That would be a simple way to maximise 1DsIV sales before the 5DIII comes out. In a competitive market, however, Canon may not be able to afford to do that. Back in 2007/2008 Canon was leading the full frame enthusiast segment by a country mile. That is no longer the case. Canon will need to take much more account of what Nikon and Sony do.


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## breakdown (Aug 30, 2011)

IMO opinion it doesn't matter if Canon releases the 1Ds IV before or at the same time as the 5DIII as long as there's a clear product differentiation that's worth paying 2,5 or 3 times more.
But that's just the big problem... the 1Ds IV should have every new feature that exist to be price worthy.... 
People are not going to pay that much for just weather sealing, better AF, higher fps (that most people don't need), same (or slight better) ISO performance, dual memory slots and maybe some more pixels (that most people are not waiting for).

The recent price drop of the 5DII could be an indication that the 5DIII will be released soon. Some shops also mention the sale of the 5DII as long as stocks last. I also heard of a photographer who worked for Canon that the 5DII would be released by the end of this year (but I don't know how reliable his information is).

If you look at the Nikon D800, if they only release a 20MP+ cam with video function and the same features as the D700 and an affordable price, they have a real Canon 5D(III) beater.


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## npherno (Aug 30, 2011)

neuroanatomist said:


> If the 5DIII and 1DsIV will use the same sensor and the 5DIII improves substantially on the 5DII's shotrcomings (mainly AF), I would bet the 5DIII will be released a year or so after a 1DsIV, so the two will be differentiated by time. If they are temporally close, or the 5DIII is released first, there will have to be a BIG feature gap, and I suspect that will mean a crippled 5DIII rather than a super-enhanced 1DsIV.
> 
> So, which would people rather have?
> 
> ...



While I agree with most points you all have made I think these are the central points. 

Canon's issue is that they will absolutely sell more 5DIII bodies and cannot afford to lose them. At the same time they cannot further mess up their market segments. As noted, Canon also still needs to find a reason to make someone pay $8k for the flagship.

I agree the 1D(s) bodies will be first, but they will lose all the market momentum especially if Nikon drops the D800 soon. The D700 was stiff competition for the 5DII already with regard to pure stills. The 5DII sold as well as it did because of video. I think if Nikon adds nice video in the short term, then Canon may well lose many sales.


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## Edwin Herdman (Aug 30, 2011)

gene_can_sing said:


> What they will lose are all the newbies and future pros. Once you start investing in a system, there will be no going back.


There's little in the Sony lineup to make a person want to jump. A big fat stabilized f/1.8 50mm is about as unique as the lineup gets - but there isn't much in the way of telephotos nor specialized lenses. No perspective correction / shift lenses, and not much in the way of ultrawide or fast aperture lenses. In fact, there's not much in the Alpha mount lineup period.

I would rather Canon gets any 5D line continuation right the first time rather than rush it to market.


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## gmrza (Aug 30, 2011)

npherno said:


> neuroanatomist said:
> 
> 
> > If the 5DIII and 1DsIV will use the same sensor and the 5DIII improves substantially on the 5DII's shotrcomings (mainly AF), I would bet the 5DIII will be released a year or so after a 1DsIV, so the two will be differentiated by time. If they are temporally close, or the 5DIII is released first, there will have to be a BIG feature gap, and I suspect that will mean a crippled 5DIII rather than a super-enhanced 1DsIV.
> ...



We seen to all be making the assumption that Canon needs to sell lots of 1Ds bodies. That may indeed not be the case.

Another view of things may be that Canon needs a flagship studio body that satisfies a small niche and provides bragging rights, and a popular full frame body that makes all the profits. 5D_x_ bodies sell many times more than the volumes of 1Ds_y_ bodies. Canon needs to sell lots of 5D_x_ bodies in order to make a profit. Canon needs to sell a small number of 1Ds_y_ bodies in order to hold a small number of leading light photographers who influence the masses and a small number of busy pros who have very demanding needs.

I don't think a lack of differentiation between the 5D_x_ and 1Ds_y_ necessarily hurts Canon. It could even all be part of Canon's plan. After all, the 1DsIII has proved to be a niche product and the 5DII a huge money spinner. That has been a success recipe for Canon.

Maybe Canon does not need or want to sell large volumes of 1Ds bodies - which would especially be the case if the margins are low. Even if Canon could sell a few times as many 1DsIIIs as they are, they would still not approach anything near the volumes of 5DIIs sold. I would thus suspect that the margins on the 1DsIII are much lower. (Here I mean the margins for Canon, not for the channel.) Thus, it may make a lot more sense for Canon to focus on making the 5D series a success, even at the expense of 1Ds sales - which would especially be the case if the margin on the 5DII is better. Given volumes and the lower tolerances and build quality of the 5DII, I suspect that is the case.

We are all quick to assume that Canon are kicking themselves for cannibalising 1DsIII sales with the 5DII. We may be wrong. Canon may have achieved exactly what they set out to do.


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Aug 30, 2011)

I agree that we won't see a 5D MK III until after the 1D MK III. However, Canon claims that they have recovered from the earthquake faster than thought, so being stopped for 4 or 5 months should not cause a 1 year plus delay. Nikon obviously has not popped out new models yet, in spite of rumors, so there is little pressure at this point to rush out a new model.

The Nikon D3s appeared briefly in the Nikon Refurb store yesterday for $4160, but when I saw extra batteries going for $175, I decided the system as a whole is pretty expensive. They sold out in short order.

I guess we can look forward to $175 batteries for the 1Ds Mark 4.


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## recon photography (Aug 30, 2011)

canon have a comp where they are giving out a 5d mk 2 in a couple of months so i doubt they would give an out of date camera I think it will be a long time, a 1d replacement should come soon though


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## pedro (Aug 30, 2011)

recon photography said:


> canon have a comp where they are giving out a 5d mk 2 in a couple of months so i doubt they would give an out of date camera I think it will be a long time, a 1d replacement should come soon though



A guess only: if a 5Diii would be announced let's say mid October and they'd send out the prices to the winner in early November there might be a possibilty to get an already "replaced body", because the agreement was based on a 5Dii. Canon would not be forced to send out hot and new gear by no means. Don't know too much about these things, but one expects what is being offered initially...at least here in Switzerland...


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## te4o (Aug 30, 2011)

Let me add one question to neuro's 2
A: After a "1DsIV"-release in October 2011 (around 7k) how many of you will wait to see what the 5DIII will be like? (and NOT buy a 1D)
AND
B:After a "5DIII" release in October 2011 (around 3.5k) how many of you will wait to see what the 1DsIV will be like? (and NOT buy a 5D)

I expect a ratio A:B around 1000:1 roughly. 

(Mathematically speaking, if Canon wants to sell 1001 cameras they should release both quite close to each other...)


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## ronderick (Aug 30, 2011)

te4o said:


> I expect a ratio A:B around 1000:1 roughly.
> 
> (Mathematically speaking, if Canon wants to sell 1001 cameras they should release both quite close to each other...)



Well, if I recall correctly, Nikon did that before with the D3/D300 release back in 2007. Both were announced at roughly about the same time.


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## Bishbashbosh44 (Aug 30, 2011)

Folks should enjoy what they have. For me I have a 1d mark 3 and a elderly 5 d, both are not now cutting edge but I don't care. Look at the Alpha 900 and 850 from Sony, 24 megapixels but hopeless over iso 400 as the images are too noisy, so having lots of megapixels doesn't necessarily make for a good camera, Canon made this mistake with the 1 Ds mark 3 over the 2.


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## recon photography (Aug 30, 2011)

pedro said:


> recon photography said:
> 
> 
> > canon have a comp where they are giving out a 5d mk 2 in a couple of months so i doubt they would give an out of date camera I think it will be a long time, a 1d replacement should come soon though
> ...



i'm sure thats normal everywhere it just doesn't seem like much of a giveaway if its out of date, its almost like giving food past its use-by-date to the homeless


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## DynaMike (Aug 30, 2011)

A high performing camera worth approx $2000 USD isn't much of a giveaway??!! If you win you can gladly ship it to me then.


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## pedro (Aug 30, 2011)

DynaMike said:


> A high performing camera worth approx $2000 USD isn't much of a giveaway??!! If you win you can gladly ship it to me then.



+1 and I would add this to my former post concerning recon photography's input: if a 5Diii is announced in October, I guess you won't put your hands on in November anyway...imho. A 5Dii will take the same great pictures even as an "outdated" body. I guess you refer to the tech part. So my old 30D is even more outdated then, but it never ceases to amaze me...while I am waiting for the 5diii dreaming of very clean ISO 12800


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## UncleFester (Aug 30, 2011)

npherno said:


> As noted, Canon also still needs to find a reason to make someone pay $8k for the flagship.



Durability and shutter cycles.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 30, 2011)

UncleFester said:


> npherno said:
> 
> 
> > As noted, Canon also still needs to find a reason to make someone pay $8k for the flagship.
> ...



Much (much!!) better AF performance. I bet they'll hobble the 5DIII's AF, just like they did with the 5DII.


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## Ricku (Aug 30, 2011)

neuroanatomist said:


> Much (much!!) better AF performance. I bet they'll hobble the 5DIII's AF, just like they did with the 5DII.


Now theres something that would ruin my day.

The one and only reason to why I want the 5DIII_ (right now)_ is because I hope it will have better AF than the randomized crap AF of 5DII.


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## lol (Aug 30, 2011)

There's a more easy way to tell the 5D3 release date. If I buy a 5D2 now, the 5D3 will be out by Christmas. So do I get a 5D2 now... (I don't need one, but it would make many of my lenses more interesting...)

On the possibly crippled AF, I think we can take some note on the 7D which is the best APS-C AF to date. I don't think its as good as people make it out to be, but it is still an improvement over say the 50D. So I do think Canon will upgrade the 5D3 AF almost certainly, but I wouldn't want to guess how far. I'd be satisfied if it was comparable to the 7D's. Compared against Nikon the 5D2 AF does seem very lagging.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 30, 2011)

lol said:


> On the possibly crippled AF, I think we can take some note on the 7D which is the best APS-C AF to date. I don't think its as good as people make it out to be, but it is still an improvement over say the 50D. So I do think Canon will upgrade the 5D3 AF almost certainly, but I wouldn't want to guess how far. I'd be satisfied if it was comparable to the 7D's. Compared against Nikon the 5D2 AF does seem very lagging.



I'm fairly certain they wil upgrade it, but not too far. I _hope_ it will come up to the level of the 7D, but I really doubt it. I don't think it will get the customization features of the 7D's AF (no spot AF, no zone AF, etc.). I see it getting all cross-type, at least for the selectable ones (assuming they keep the 'invisible' assist points). They might pack a few more points in there, but unfortunately I think that the area covered by the AF array will remain the same, i.e. inadequate spread of points. 

Regarding that inadequate spread, some folks will point out that Canon has stated, "_The outer points on the extreme left and right are actually located at the same positions as the corresponding points in the EOS-1Ds Mark III._" That's fine as far as it goes, but the white paper conveniently omits the fact that the top and bottom AF points on the 5DII are much more tightly placed - a full 'row' narrower on both the top and bottom, relative to the 1DsIII or 7D (on the 5DII, the top/bottom AF points are just outside the spot metering circle, whereas current 1D/1Ds and 7D have a bigger gap from the circle). The consequence is that on the 1-series and on the 7D, there are AF points that sit at the 'rule-of-thirds' intersections, whereas on the 5DII you can't even get close - and I expect that won't change with the 5DIII.


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## npherno (Aug 30, 2011)

neuroanatomist said:


> UncleFester said:
> 
> 
> > npherno said:
> ...



Thats exactly what I am afraid of. It seems that Nikon has a chance to take the "bang of the buck" (not counting lenses and accessories) category if the D800 has competitive video. 

I agree AF and durability of 5DMiii should not be close to that of flagship, but If Nikon can ship proper AF, and good frame rate, so should Canon. D700 Beats it in low ISO as well. 

Bottom line is will Canon intermediate shooters who may not have much invested in Canon stick around if Nikon is significantly better "perceived" value, especially if D800 is released first, and/or the 5DMiii is not as good or better. 

I think Canon is forgetting that perception is important in the marketplace, and I can say my current perception is that Nikon makes cameras for photographers, and that Canon "nickel and dimes" their customers.


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## gene_can_sing (Aug 30, 2011)

I think for still photos, the current 5D2 is fine. 

But for video and for the many video people who invested a small fortune in Canon equipment thinking that the future was going to bright 3 years ago, Canon owes us big time. Many video people bought into the Canon system several years back thinking that it was the first generation of cameras and we all knew the flaws, but we saw the potential for the future. We figured that Canon was a safe company to invest in.

Canon has NOT delivered whatsoever in the last few years on video. They've released a series of cameras with the exact same problems over and over again. Panasonic and Sony have fixed these minor problems (moire, aliasing) that Canon continues to ignore.

At the very least, if Canon does not release the 5D3 until the end of 2012, they need to release some type of video DSLR of at least a decent large sensor video camera.

Canon has made countless millions of dollars off people who bought Canon bodies and lenses mainly for video, which is one of the main reasons for the huge success of the 5D and the 7D. And when so many have vested so much cash into a company, they owe you to keep up the pace on tech. 

Canon has not met their end of the bargain for video, and they need to start delivering soon and deliver big time for making people wait so long for basic fixes.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 30, 2011)

npherno said:


> ...Nikon makes cameras for photographers, and that Canon "nickel and dimes" their customers.



Exactly. For example, if you want to edit .CR2 RAW files with 'native' Canon software, they "nickel and dime" you by giving you DPP for free, whereas if you want to edit .NEF RAW files with 'native' Nikon software, they give you...oh, wait - you have to *buy* CaptureNX2.


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## Kernuak (Aug 30, 2011)

I'm in the camp that can't see the 5D MkIII being released before the 1Ds MkIV (or whatever it may turn out to be). Yes, it is lacking in frame rate and speed of focus, but in low light in one shot mode, it out performs the 7D. I've also heard of similar complaints about focus in the Nikon camp, plus test shots seem to indicate that there is very little difference in noise levels between the D700 and 5D MkII (although I haven't of course done a side by side test). There are differences in the noise in those shots, but it's more about the look of the noise than the actual amount and then it is down to personal preference on which you prefer.
I have two work colleagues who are interested in photography, one was a Sony user, the other is a Nikon user. In the past month or so, both have been strongly considering a switch to Canon. The Sony user actually bought a 7D a few weeks ago and is now raving about how good it is (although it was before the A77 release). He also likes the choice of lenses, even though he's struggling to choose which ones to get for his needs. The Nikon user has decided to wait on the playing out of the current Nikon rumours, but he has said that if he had his choice again, before buying into the Nikon system, he would have chosen Canon. He considers that Nikon have made a bad choice on limiting the sensor resolution to 12MP for so long. He looked into the D7000 to replace his D300s, but didn't like the idea of the drop in build quality. He's also flip-flopped between crop and full frame, going from the D300 to D700 and back to D300s, because he found that he didn't have the reach on his lenses with the D700 that he needed. He of course wishes he kept both, to have a similar combination to me with my 5D MkII/7D combination. As he said, having the extra resolution isn't always necessary, but it gives him the flexibility of cropping when he needs to. I suppose it's a case the grass is always greener on the other side, as I've thought about Nikon in the past for low noise, high ISO. The 7D may not match the D300s, but I feel it is pretty much on a par with the D300 and I have the extra cropping factor if I need to, because of the higher resolution. With my old 40D, I had to upsize for submission to Alamy, the 7D stopped that and even though Alamy have reduced the submission limit, I have room to crop and still be ok. More images means more potential earnings (subject to sufficient quality), which means more gear I can afford, not that I could ever make a living from it .


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## npherno (Aug 30, 2011)

neuroanatomist said:


> npherno said:
> 
> 
> > ...Nikon makes cameras for photographers, and that Canon "nickel and dimes" their customers.
> ...



Haha, well said, but at that level, who doesn't already own Aperture or Lightroom? I am a Canon owner. I like my 50D. I think that one needs to be honest and admit that although one can say no product is perfect, Canon absolutely was stingy on the 5D AF. There a few other ways they were cheap.. Wireless controller not built into the body was a pain, No flash on 5D vs D700, etc. Small stuff.


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## autochrome (Aug 30, 2011)

neuroanatomist said:


> npherno said:
> 
> 
> > ...Nikon makes cameras for photographers, and that Canon "nickel and dimes" their customers.
> ...



It was worse than that, they encrypted some NEF metadata so third-party RAW processors couldn't decode the RAW files correctly, only by entering an agreement with Nikon, apparently they were trying even to prevent open-source developers from accessing this data since the need for a Nikon approval of the software project would be incompatible with several open-source licenses, such as the GNU GPLv2 for instance.



> â€“ In response to recent complaints from photographers and engineers about the encryption of its RAW white balance data, Nikon issued a statement defending their proprietary RAW file design. Nikonâ€™s digital SLR users claim images captured by the camera â€“ and the data used to make them â€“ belongs to the photographer. However, Nikon wishes to keep the data encrypted to protect its trade secrets, among other things.
> 
> *"Nikonâ€™s preservation of its unique technology in the NEF file is employed as an action that protects the uniqueness of the file,"* the Nikon advisory stated. "At the same time, Nikon makes available a software developer kit (SDK) that, when implemented appropriately, enables a wide range of NEF performance, including white balance, for Nikon photographers and their productive use of the NEF file."
> 
> The SDK is available to "bona fide" developers *who must write to Nikon for approval*, the release stated. When new cameras are introduced, Nikon must update the kits with new information â€“ such is the case with the Nikon D2X, D2Hs, and new releases. The Nikon digital cameras come with PictureProject software, which has a software license agreement that protects Nikonâ€™s interests.


http://www.digitalcamerainfo.com/content/Nikon-Defends-Encrypted-NEF-Format.htm


This didn't deterred developers from breaking the encryption, but that alone must've costed Nikon a lot of customers.



> As noted in the comments about Nikon's highly inadvisable decision to encrypt its RAW files, Bibble Labs has cracked the Nikon white balance encryption in the latest version of its imaging software. Now programmer Dave Coffin has also reverse-engineered the encryption and has published the decryption code on his website, intending to make Nikon's RAW a completely open format. Coffin hopes his work will allow Adobe to support Nikon's file format in future versions of their Camera Raw software, but Adobe is still understandably hesitant about drawing a possible lawsuit under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA). *Plus, the question still remains regarding whether much can be done to salvage the betrayed trust Nikon visited on its customers by opting to encrypt its RAW files in the first place*.


http://www.engadget.com/2005/04/22/nikons-raw-photo-encryption-broken-twice/


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## messus (Aug 31, 2011)

gene_can_sing said:


> Let see, Sony is set to release some very good Cameras according to early tests of their cheapo $600 camera,
> 
> http://www.eoshd.com/content/3784/nex-5n-demolishes-ep-3-at-high-isos-even-beats-5d-mk-ii-nikon-d7000
> 
> ...



I am also heavily invested in Canon equipment, and I love my 5D2. But you assume wrong for everyone. If Canon fail to deliver new fast high-iso fullframes within a reasonable timeframe (2011), I may be forced to switch to Nikon if they release something soon that is, or Sony.

My business will suffer more from not getting new and better cameras than if I have to sell my gear and buy new.

And this is not about "whining" and complaining, this is a fact! At least for me!

I still pray Canon releases the 5D3 or a 3D this autumn, because I need it now!


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## mackguyver (Aug 31, 2011)

The 5D MkIII will be announced tomorrow. How do I know? Because I finally gave up waiting and purchased a MkII...and life's just cruel like that.


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## AG (Aug 31, 2011)

mackguyver said:


> The 5D MkIII will be announced tomorrow. How do I know? Because I finally gave up waiting and purchased a MkII...and life's just cruel like that.



such is life.


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## epsiloneri (Aug 31, 2011)

mackguyver said:


> The 5D MkIII will be announced tomorrow. How do I know? Because I finally gave up waiting and purchased a MkII...and life's just cruel like that.



Thanks, mackguyver, we appreciate your sacrifice.


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## pedro (Aug 31, 2011)

macguyver: thta'ts true bravery...should it be announced tommorrow, I'll think of you :


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## bvukich (Aug 31, 2011)

mackguyver said:


> The 5D MkIII will be announced tomorrow. How do I know? Because I finally gave up waiting and purchased a MkII...and life's just cruel like that.



We all appreciate you taking one for the team. You truly are a prince among men.

;D


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## moreorless (Aug 31, 2011)

npherno said:


> I agree AF and durability of 5DMiii should not be close to that of flagship, but If Nikon can ship proper AF, and good frame rate, so should Canon. D700 Beats it in low ISO as well.



At the end of the day I think it comes down to the same point thats been made many times before, Nikon gave the D700 better autofocus, Canon gave the 5D Mk2 a higher megapixel sensor.


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## UncleFester (Sep 1, 2011)

neuroanatomist said:


> UncleFester said:
> 
> 
> > npherno said:
> ...



Actually, my comment was as to why they charge 8K. 

But I would also like to better AF reports on the next gen. I don't know if I could part with the $$ for it though.


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## LetTheRightLensIn (Sep 1, 2011)

Ivar said:


> pedro said:
> 
> 
> > 5D3 is unlikely to ship before the end of 2012 at the very earliest.
> ...



already starting to get their kicked in video, playing a radically foolish game, if this rumor is true

plus a whopping 5D3 now rather than later is what could swing people over from Nikon

not sure I believe the rumor though, I mean they don't have time to finish 5D3 but have time to suddenly switch efforts over to start a 1Ds4 instead??? makes no sense on so many different levels.


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## LetTheRightLensIn (Sep 1, 2011)

gene_can_sing said:


> Let see, Sony is set to release some very good Cameras according to early tests of their cheapo $600 camera,
> 
> http://www.eoshd.com/content/3784/nex-5n-demolishes-ep-3-at-high-isos-even-beats-5d-mk-ii-nikon-d7000
> 
> ...



agreed plus they will give up all the inroads into serious video they made soon


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## LetTheRightLensIn (Sep 1, 2011)

neuroanatomist said:


> awinphoto said:
> 
> 
> > But that makes too much logical sense for CEO's and big wigs at Canon (or any other company for that matter) to go by... What they care about is market share/money coming in (profits)/and reputation. The 5d is a better seller and will sell more than the 1d's and will have a higher return on investment hence the profit and market share portions of the formula... The 1d's are all about prestige and reputation... I dont think Canon at all sits back, in this economy and says (this is older so we will replace this first)... it's about what will give us the biggest volume of sales and is more profitable... Hence why rebels are upgraded yearly and pro cameras not..
> ...



if you wait until it is urgent that means you are already behind and in trouble

jump ahead as soon as you can and you bring more over from the other fold (and don't starting dropping those on the video side)


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## LetTheRightLensIn (Sep 1, 2011)

neuroanatomist said:


> Knowing Canon's past history of using AF performance to differentiate among models, I also suspect they'll handicap the 5DIII with a less-than-stellar AF system. While I doubt they'll recycle the 5D's system yet again (God, I hope not, although I wouldn't put it past them!), I speculate it will still have 9 + 6 points, but all the user-selectable ones will be cross-type.



maybe (and sadly I mean maybe for real, knowing the new Canon), but let us hope not, late 2012 and crippled, mini AF system?
so they get blown out by nikon for stills and other players for video and yeah they held onto their precious 5D2 profits by recouping it's design costs over and over but lose the game in the long run

in the past they didn't sit around and wait for others to react to and they also blew Nikon out of the water when DSLRs got going and even when AF got going and then again even a bit with small packagae, low-cost, large sensor video but they seem to have become fatter and fatter and more reactive and more market droid driven by the year


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## LetTheRightLensIn (Sep 1, 2011)

npherno said:


> I think Canon is forgetting that perception is important in the marketplace, and I can say my current perception is that Nikon makes cameras for photographers, and that Canon "nickel and dimes" their customers.



It does seem that way. And leaving tripod collars out of $1599 variable aperture tele-zooms doesn't make exactly lead one away from that perception either.

Removing MFA from the 60D was a crime too. More nickel and dime BS from the marketing droids.

It was stunning that they didn't even understand basic concepts such as manual audio gain or manual exposure control for video would be desired, that AutoISO makes the most sense used in M mode, that the histogram needs an outline around it so you can see where it ends when shooting outside of a dark lab, etc. I mean a group of hackers have put more thought and accomplished more for video not even having any instructions than Canon has. And then you feel that all of their body releases are not even close to what they have the skills to make while with Nikon you feel they tend to give it their best possible effort. Now maybe Canon has been a bit ahead and have managed to slide by because of that but it does slowly build up a lowering of full respect for the brand name and certainly doesn't lure over as many customers as they might otherwise.


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## YoukY63 (Sep 1, 2011)

LetTheRightLensIn said:


> npherno said:
> 
> 
> > I think Canon is forgetting that perception is important in the marketplace, and I can say my current perception is that Nikon makes cameras for photographers, and that Canon "nickel and dimes" their customers.
> ...


Thanks for your (multi) comments.
Now let me tell you that all your rants make me tired. :-\
You don't like Canon, they are losers? So leave to a brand that understand you better than Canon.
Canon is not making the camera that you want? All Canon camera sucks? What are you still doing here?

The fact and final truth is that only Canon bring you what you need today. That's why you are still using Canon I guess and that's why professional movie makers are sometime using Canon bodies (instead of selecting Panasonic or Sony bodies). You want more, OK, that's fair. But it looks like nobody gives you that much enough because I would not understand that you stick to Canon it that case.

Actual EOS body lines are still camera and they will remain focused on still abilities. Video will never be there major feature. You can only hope than Canon release a 3D or whatever with focus on video ability for people like you, but do not expect the 5D to be a camera for video shooting.

Now, about the 5D/1Ds thing.
Jjust like Neuro, I think Canon should and will release the 1Ds before 5D. First, because 1Ds is much more overdue than 5D (4 years old vs 3 years old). Then, because professional had enough time to collect money to change their (old) cameras (1Ds I, II or III).
And finally, probably because it is just smarter in a marketing way. Why so many people was raving about the 5DmII, making it a best seller even with its high price? Because people were buying a kind of "mini-1DsIII", with the same sensor than this 8k$ camera and even a better image processor inside!
Canon don't care to not sell anymore 1Ds, since they sell 10 times more 5D than before (and 1000 times more 5DII than any 1Ds before!) just by giving it "pro features".
That's why I also believe that 5DIII should and will use again the same sensor than the new 1Ds. So people dreaming of the new 1Ds will be able to buy a part of their dream. And the story will repeat again. 

My hypothesis:
End of 2011: new 1Ds mark IV
February (?) 2012: new iD mark V with APS-H sensor
August 2012: 5D mark III with 1Ds IV sensor (presented for the next Photokina)

And if I were Canon I would also replace the 7D within a few months (december?), opponents are getting stronger recently on high end APS-C!


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