# What will Canon do based on Nikon's first release choice (D4 vs D800)?



## RayS2121 (Dec 17, 2011)

Canonâ€™s 1DX announcement is YET to be met _officially_ from Nikon, so Nikon has two options chronologically: 

Scenario 1) First release D4 with a ~16MP (_evens the field _ with 1DX)

Scenario 2) Release first a higher MP rumored D800 (_ups the ante_ as Canon has nothing to compete with such an FF even if we downsize rumors to 24MP).

Question: *Which scenario will Nikon choose?* Depending on D4 vs D800 hitting the market first, how long does Canon have to announce their next body, presumably 5D3? 

I personally favor Nikon choosing to up-the-ante. Canon may announce by summer 2012 (to keep us on the hook) but not delivering till much much later. Best!


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## tt (Dec 17, 2011)

Presumably they would put their 1DX alternative out for release to at least sports pros for before the Olympics? 
Would releasing a D800 without competition for it's price range, bring defections form the waiting-for-a-5D-MkIII-with-better-MP/AF crowd?
http://www.canonrumors.com/forum/index.php?topic=2479.msg52942;topicseen#new has some views. 

I'd imagine there's more heat from the D800 over AF than exact timing. They can both stretch the time between announcement and launch/ actual general availability


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## RayS2121 (Dec 17, 2011)

tt said:


> Presumably they would put their 1DX alternative out for release to at least sports pros for before the Olympics?



Possibly, but I think their D3 still is a worthy contender for fast action though not at par with 1DX... check out the Nikon dork flaunting a D3 at 11 fps.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJNy3qSN_10

and this guy just came with D3s, indecent:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okv6iL8mYm4&feature=related

As for stretching out the release date after announcing...shameful, but yes, they both do that.


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Dec 17, 2011)

Hopefully, with the flooding in Thailand over, and the big nikon plant slowly going back into production, they will be able to introduce a new model. They will likely both be introduced early next year. 

Nikon needs to do something desperately, their camera batteries do not meet safety laws in Japan, so they can't sell some of their cameras in Japan any longer. D700 is one of them along with the D300S. They are dumping them on other countries who do not have strict laws.

I'd look for the D800 very soon, with a new battery!

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nikon-image.com%2Fsupport%2Fwhatsnew%2F2011%2Fwnew111108.htm


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## dr croubie (Dec 18, 2011)

Basically, the way I see it:

- 1D4 was the competitor to the D3s, at the same time. (for high-fps in the lower-MP-segment. D3s wins for low-light, 1D4 wins for MP)
- 1DX is the new competitor to the D3s, 2 years later. (1DX wins for MP and FPS, no word yet on low-light)
- D3X was the competitor for 1Ds3, a year too late. (but wins on MP and tonal/dynamic-range, very similar on low-light for dxomark's "screen", both trounced by D3s in iso.)
- 1DX is sort-of the new competitor for D3x after 3 years (less MP, but maybe better tonal/dynamic range and low-light from the bigger photosites? wait and see)
- D700 was no competitor for 5D2 (for MP and video at least, AF win goes to D700, other dxomark "print" test are a very very slight edge to d700).
- D300s was allegedly a competitor for the 7D (At least in fps and price, 7D wins on MP, RAW fps, Dynamic range on dxomark's "print", both equal for tonal range and iso for "print". Dual card-slots and AF are probably the only nice things I can say about the d300s)

So in future:
A 24MP D800 will be the competitor to a 5D2, 3 years too late (at least for MP, should easily beat it in AF).
A 36MP D800 will raise the bar a lot, and then it's up to canon to compete for once.
I doubt it, but kind of hope for a 36MP D800, because then canon will have to respond to real competition for once (not that they've had bad cameras a few years ago, but since the 5D2 and 7D they've just been resting on their laurels and we won't see either updated until there's a yellow competitor (unless the A77 kills 7D sales))

A 16MP D4 is a very believable and worthy competitor to the 1DX, and should be out and about by the olympics (if not, nikon are boned)

A 24MP D400 will be a worthy competitor to the new A77 and a 3-years-too-late competitor for the 7D. Both together won't exactly kill 7D sales, but it might just be enough to spur canon into a 7D2 sooner rather than later.

Back to the OP:
My money's on the prestige first, if the 1D4 was nearly equal to the D3s in all but low-light, and if the 1DX allegedly fixes the low-light, nikon can't do with taking a by-then-3-year-old competitor to the olympics, especially with the ethernet port on the 1DX the photogs are going to love it.

But still, that's not to say that the D800 won't also be announced soon, even at the same time, they're hardly competing in the same segment (just like the 5D2 didn't detract from the 1D3 sales).
Canon have it a bit different, but I don't think a 36MP (very unlikely) nor the-same-as-1DX-18MP 5D3 will take away too many sales from the 1DX, as long as the AF is 15-pt, 3-4 fps, sealed-same-as-5D2, or lesser-features, because the 5D3 is a prosumer, maybe studio, maybe backup-body, but it's not a photog or sports camera, never will be.

So I don't see any reason for the yellow-guys waiting off on the D800, besides natural-disasters. If it's 24MP, it's competing against a 3-year-old 5D2, so sooner is better for them, and canon will drop their 5D3 at any time that suits them. If it's 36MP, no matter when they drop it, canon will have to compete as soon as possible, so the sooner nikon drop it the more they can enjoy the limelight before canon fires back.

For the D4, canon's fired the first shot. The 1DX is real, we have specs, people have played, we have a release-date as realistic as any other canon-release-date (interpret that how you will, EF 500/600 f/4L II *cough*). Nikon have 3 months to fire back before the 1DX is out there and being reviewed, they have to at least make an announcement before the 1DX is on the shelves. The D4 must be on the shelves by May-June, to get some practice in before those 5 rings start flying, or there's going to be a lot of bad-publicity (even in the very unlikely event that the D3s trounces the 1DX, people will complain if there's no D4 before London, or am I being cynical?)


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## RayS2121 (Dec 18, 2011)

Uh..oh! Nikon Rumors just posted what appears to be somewhat more concrete info on 36 MP D800 ... 100% crops at different ISO and EXIF window shots. He admits to being constrained in publishing more info ... plus the lens field is blacked out in EXIF (new lens?)...103 MB file size!!!... yikes.

http://nikonrumors.com/2011/12/17/cropped-nikon-d800-samples-at-high-iso.aspx/#more-28758

We are rolling down the high MP incline at break neck speed it seems...


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Dec 18, 2011)

The samples all have a definite cross hatch pattern, and a lot of noise, even at ISO 1400. 103mb tiff file!! I hope the noise is not so apparent in a production model, the cross hatch could be from a monitor screen, but it looks ugly.

No wonder camera makers do not want photos from prototypes leaked.


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## dr croubie (Dec 18, 2011)

DR-Guy is certainly betting his farm on it being 36MP, and being called the D800. Hinting that he's an official beta-tester under an NDA is also helping him convince everyone that he's right. Maybe he is, maybe not (what happens if he's blowing smoke? probably nothing, all the more visits to NR making complaining-posts will also increase ad-hit revenue). Still, reputation's on the line so he's probably (at least sure that he is) right.
As for the post itself, taking a photo of a single-colour piece of paper is probably the worst way to convince me of any noise performance or sharpness either way.

Assuming we take all this as true, what then? I'd have guessed a 36MP sensor into a D4X, lead the new tech with the flagship and make the best margins. Or at least a new model-line somewhere between the D3-D4 line and the D700-line, by nikon-naming-convention that would be the D984800 or so. But if it's going into a D800, is it still going to be affordable? More megapixels means more chance for individual-pixel defects, less yields, etc, do they have some brand-spanking-new wafer-fab with high yields? Something tells me this is going to be an expensive camera, maybe around the $3-3.5k body-only, unless they've perfected a lot of manufacturing and supply-chain costs.
Still, could happen, can't wait for it, then canon can come back with a 30+ MP-monster (which I'm still betting, if it happens, will be a 2/3/4D @ $3500, not a 5D3 @ $2500)

Something doesn't sit right, though. If we believe 7360x4912, what about video? 1920 pixels *4 = 7680. for a measly 300 more pixels they could have had a perfect 4*4:1 binning for HD video, or a 2*2:1 for 3840*2160 video. Missed opportunity on that one...


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## Edwin Herdman (Dec 18, 2011)

I am certain this ground has been covered in other topics. Personally, I don't really care what they do, if we presuppose that they are more or less set in their specifications.

The necessity to be seen "leapfrogging" the competition remains as high as ever, but I wonder if it would really make sense to offer the D800 as an answer to the 1D X, if indeed the D4 will be. It might be tempting to allow Nikonites, or prospective camera buyers, to crow that Nikon knows what they're doing and can balance high ISO and sheer pixel counts. In that sense, it remains to be seen if Canon and Nikon would not actually do some damage to themselves in terms of mass marketing by being seen as sliding backwards in less-ambitious megapixel counts (not such a problem for Nikon, however). On the other hand, no matter how much good will a D4 might generate for Nikon, it is not going to sell a competitor to the 5D Mark II - only a D800 (or something like it) will sell. So if we assume that is driving Canon's release schedule, they would want to match the D800.

In reality, I don't think it is that simple. Nikon often seems to have inventory available soon after an announcement, so Canon might not be able to flexibly respond to that. Nikon also might have considered an argument like that I put forward - that by selling the D800 you might lose some D4 buyers - although when looking at the price tags and vastly different megapixel counts, and probably shooting speeds as well, it doesn't make as much sense as in previous generations where there wasn't such a huge spread. I can't really see many people buying a D800 as a stand-in for a D4, or vice versa.

It is also instructive to consider, for example, that the Rebel and other "prosumer" refreshes are announced in the early months of the year, meaning that the cameras are "old" by the time the holidays roll around. Canon gets to sell more volume that way, and the retirement of older models should be gentler to inventories (not to mention those who might be tempted to return a camera bought in anticipation of the holiday, only to find it outclassed for a sale). I think you can unequivocally state that Nikon would cause large headaches for resellers, and themselves, by announcing a D800 or a D4 during this month, or soon after. Considering the earlier point with Canon, I also think Nikon would anger a lot of people out there buying Nikon cameras right now if they release upgrades so soon.

The core problem might be that Nikon has a D800 readied and Canon does not have a 5D Mark III readied. However, this is not proven - it might be the case that Nikon in fact does not have a D800, or that Canon is better at secrecy, or both. I believe the second (or that Canon simply is taking their time), not the first or third. Since all these cameras will be selling well after this Christmas season, and probably well after the January returns and gift money shopping spree, Canon may well be able to hold out a bit longer with a 5D Mark II replacement.


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Dec 18, 2011)

I have little doubt that he has obtained files and information from someone who has a prototype camera, but he does not hint that he is a beta tester, and I'm certain Nikon would never make him a beta tester, since it would be a conflict.

I really would not even want that camera based on what I see, they are jpeg images with lots of NR which has destroyed the detail, and they are still noisey.

He says the images are crops, but not 1:1.

Perhaps they are out of focus areas of a image ?? That would explain a lot.


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## Edwin Herdman (Dec 18, 2011)

I think they are in-focus areas, or else the ISO 50 section would not have that texture.

I'm hoping it is a portion of the image in deep shadow, because that much noise in the red section (better than blue (edit - meant better than noise in a green section), but still) is pretty hard to expect. This might end up making the Sony 24MP sensor look capable of beautiful, crisp images ;D


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## jrista (Dec 18, 2011)

RayS2121 said:


> Uh..oh! Nikon Rumors just posted what appears to be somewhat more concrete info on 36 MP D800 ... 100% crops at different ISO and EXIF window shots. He admits to being constrained in publishing more info ... plus the lens field is blacked out in EXIF (new lens?)...103 MB file size!!!... yikes.
> 
> http://nikonrumors.com/2011/12/17/cropped-nikon-d800-samples-at-high-iso.aspx/#more-28758
> 
> We are rolling down the high MP incline at break neck speed it seems...



I think thats faked. The NIKON word for the camera "Model" tag looks like its been tampered with...the letter spacing is different. You can tell because the latter N is farther right than the N of the word NIKON from the "Make" tag. If Lightroom rendered that itself, both 'NIKON' instances would be identical...there would be no letter spacing difference. The drop shadow on the model field is also a little different than the drop shadow for the rest of the EXIF fields...ever so slightly softer, not as crisp. That, combined with some of the stuff being blacked out (why in the world would someone black out the filename and timestamp info?? Seems like a setup to me!!)

Sorry, calling FAKE!!


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## KeithR (Dec 18, 2011)

Mt Spokane Photography said:


> 103mb tiff file!!



16 bit tiff conversions from my 7D are 102 mb.


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## Isaac (Dec 18, 2011)

From what we've heard from Nikon Rumors and others, Nikon may release the D4 and D800 together in January. On ground level the D800 will be more threatening as it has a bigger target market than the D4/1Dx market.

I think that perhaps Canon will bring out the 5D Mark III to deal with the new D800 with more priority than release and availability of the 1Dx.


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## tt (Dec 18, 2011)

> Nikon D4 will start shipping at the end of January 2012! Of course* availability will be limited for months if not years*. I am still trying to confirm/verify this info but if that's the case, I can see that Nikon wants to get their top of the line DSLR available before the Canon 1Dx which will start shipping in March of 2012.



So announcement after 1DX, release before 1DX, but to limited availability, and a slow ramp up.


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## RayS2121 (Dec 18, 2011)

Does the release of either D4, or especially, a higher MP D800 force Canon's hand to move up their next body schedule or most your bets are still on September and after cycle?


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## JR (Dec 18, 2011)

RayS2121 said:


> Does the release of either D4, or especially, a higher MP D800 force Canon's hand to move up their next body schedule or most your bets are still on September and after cycle?



I think it depends on a few things. First it depends if Canon is actually ready for the 5D III launch and are only waiting for the right timing or are they still finalizing the spec list and as such still have a couple of months development once they do? As a potential buyer I sure hope anything Nikon does puts pressure on Canon.

Then again, it also depends if they feel the D800 will really hurt their sale. For example if the D800 ISO noise is not better then the current 5D mkII (as was posted on Nikon Rumor site) and if the retail price in somewhere in the $4,000 range like it was rumored, does it really compete with a $2k-$2.5k 5D mkII? No sure...

So depending on the positioning and the market segment Canon executive beleive the Nikon D800 will hit its early release may not pressure Canon to change their timetable that much.

All this is highly speculative of course!


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## bikersbeard (Dec 18, 2011)

sorry to change subject guys but...

on nikon rumors they have made a correction on the D4... its iso is 100-12800 native and expandable to 204,000

with the 1Dx native at 51200 is this really the nikon killer they talked about


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## RayS2121 (Dec 18, 2011)

bikersbeard said:


> on nikon rumors they have made a correction on the D4... its iso is 100-12800 native and expandable to 204,000
> 
> with the 1Dx native at 51200 is this really the nikon killer they talked about



Side note, for the moment I am discounting ISO crops he had posted for "36MP" D800 as dubious and/or from pre-production testers, I somehow don't think Nikon will release that sort of substandard ISO product.

His correction regarding D4 ISO does little to change the fact that Nikon models currently available in the market are already a few steps ahead of comparable Canon's models in ISO performance, so Nikon can sit pretty and watch what Canon offers. 

The problem is if D800 delivers "relatively" comparable ISO _*and also * _ ups the MP race...Canon will have to really deliver in that case.


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## JR (Dec 18, 2011)

RayS2121 said:


> The problem is if D800 delivers "relatively" comparable ISO _*and also * _ ups the MP race...Canon will have to really deliver in that case.



I agree, however pricing will play an important role here too. If the D800 is twice the reatil price of the 5D mkII, then Canon strategy might be to launch a brand new body to compate in this high MP segemtn which is not necessarily the 5D III. If however the D800 pricing is comparable to the 5D II then Canon will be in trouble and will need to react quickly with a 5D III... Positioning and pricing will play out importantly in all this I think...


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Dec 18, 2011)

Canon's 5D MK III is all set, and Canon knows what the Nikon d800 will be. The only question in my mind, is will Canon resist the temptation to pile on MP, or do something more modest. Those samples of D800 images at higher ISO's look horrible, hopefully, they were from a prototype and will be much better for a released product. Right now, Nikon fans are really screaming on the Nikon Forums.

Its always possible that the images were planted, just to see what the response was, and that a backup plan is in place.


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## Canon-F1 (Dec 18, 2011)

when you look at the LR dialog on nikon rumors you will see that the text "NIKON D800" does not line up with the "NIKON" text above it (itÂ´s shifted about 2 PIXELS). thatÂ´s fake if you ask me... photoshoped.

with my cameras and LR 3.6 the text from make/model is lined up perfectly in LR.

i would bet 100 euros it is faked.













my LR:






i could be wrong.. sure... but i think im not.


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## JR (Dec 18, 2011)

It does seem odd that partial file would be made available for the D800 when for example no one as seen files fromt he 1DX so far and we will not before the launch anyway. I would think that Nikon would manage this carefully and am with you "Canon-F1" on this one it does seem strange.

If they are real, then it does not look like the D800 will beat the 5D II for ISO performance anyway...!


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## jrista (Dec 18, 2011)

*?*



dilbert said:


> Maybe the D800 isn't aimed at the Nikon fans, but at the Canon fans (there are more Canon cameras...) who have bought the 5D2 over the D700, meaning that more customers value more MP than more IQ...



That would be both assuming that the D800 images are not fakes (I'm with Canon-F1 here, I think they are totally fake), and that increasing MP means degrading IQ. That isn't necessarily the case, as despite the complaints to the contrary, comparing my far higher MP 7D with the 450D, IQ on the 7D from a preserved detail perspective is WAY higher than it is on the 450D. Its ever so slightly noisier at 100% ISO100 crops, but the more megapixels certainly capture more detail and maintain detail sharpness better than a lower resolution sensor could even hope to capture in the first place.


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## poias (Dec 18, 2011)

Canon-F1 said:


> when you look at the LR dialog on nikon rumors you will see that the text "NIKON D800" does not line up with the "NIKON" text above it (itÂ´s shifted about 2 PIXELS). thatÂ´s fake if you ask me... photoshoped.
> 
> with my cameras and LR 3.6 the text from make/model is lined up perfectly in LR.
> 
> ...



What is happening is that NIKON CORPORATION needed to be made smaller to fit in the dialog box, while "Canon EOS" was shorter, hence no need to shorten.

So, no fake. Just LR dialog adjusting the font sizes.


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## Canon-F1 (Dec 18, 2011)

poias said:


> So, no fake. Just LR dialog adjusting the font sizes.



sure would be possible.... but my LR is not adjusting the fontsize.
and it sure does not adjusting fontsize for only one line of the menu.


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## poias (Dec 18, 2011)

Canon-F1 said:


> poias said:
> 
> 
> > So, no fake. Just LR dialog adjusting the font sizes.
> ...



Could you check how NIKON CORPORATION would appear in your LR? Make the dialog narrower, as well.


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## Canon-F1 (Dec 18, 2011)

poias said:


> Could you check how NIKON CORPORATION would appear in your LR? Make the dialog narrower, as well.



nope...it does not change fontsize as i wrote.
when i make the dialog as narrow as it gets then all letters that do not fit are replaced with "..."






and it makes no difference in english:


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## poias (Dec 18, 2011)

Canon-F1 said:


> poias said:
> 
> 
> > Could you check how NIKON CORPORATION would appear in your LR? Make the dialog narrower, as well.
> ...



I think different LR setups might behave differently. I have seen dialog font sizes adjust to the width of the initial popup in the past (I use a PC though).


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## Canon-F1 (Dec 18, 2011)

poias said:


> I think different LR setups might behave differently. I have seen dialog font sizes adjust to the width of the initial popup in the past (I use a PC though).



i use LR since version 1 (also PC) and never noticed it.
but i noticed immediately that the nikon type is shifted. 

imo it would make no sence to adjust fontsize in only one (a few) line of the menu. that would look like a mess.


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## Gothmoth (Dec 18, 2011)

i think itÂ´s fake.
a bad one.


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## Edwin Herdman (Dec 19, 2011)

jrista said:


> I think thats faked. The NIKON word for the camera "Model" tag looks like its been tampered with...the letter spacing is different. You can tell because the latter N is farther right than the N of the word NIKON from the "Make" tag. If Lightroom rendered that itself, both 'NIKON' instances would be identical...there would be no letter spacing difference. The drop shadow on the model field is also a little different than the drop shadow for the rest of the EXIF fields...ever so slightly softer, not as crisp.


Nice catch. Not sure it's conclusive but it might be something.



> That, combined with some of the stuff being blacked out (why in the world would someone black out the filename and timestamp info?? Seems like a setup to me!!)


I think that's legitimate to worry about - they may well be (and should be) concerned that the camera when returned to Canon will have an internal record of filenames and timestamps for the purpose of rooting out leakers. Just speculation on my part, but if I was in the position of a leaker, I'd be paranoid too.


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## jrista (Dec 19, 2011)

Edwin Herdman said:


> > That, combined with some of the stuff being blacked out (why in the world would someone black out the filename and timestamp info?? Seems like a setup to me!!)
> 
> 
> I think that's legitimate to worry about - they may well be (and should be) concerned that the camera when returned to Canon will have an internal record of filenames and timestamps for the purpose of rooting out leakers. Just speculation on my part, but if I was in the position of a leaker, I'd be paranoid too.



Ah, good point, and well put.

The evidence that its a fake certainly isn't conclusive, however its extremely suspicious. About as suspicious as the choice of photographic subject for sample shots...could they have picked anything less suitable to demonstrate the uber awesomeness of the D800?


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## torger (Dec 19, 2011)

I would be surprised if the D800 sensor somehow magically performs much better on high ISOs than the D7000 sensor, seen per pixel (they have the same pixel pitch). My guess is that it will perform more or less exactly the same per pixel, and gain advantage from the large area and resolution. Sensors are evolving slowly now, don't expect a revolution.

It will compared to the alternatives be fine up to ISO3200 (don't forget noise averaging due to the high res!), then there will be significant drop in performance, poor color reproduction at very high ISOs will in real prints be more of a problem than noise. If you're a ISO6400 - ISO25600 user then this is not the camera for you, then you need D4 if Nikon user and 1DX if Canon.

The D800 sensor is a high res sensor, so I think it would be much more interesting to look at what it can do at base ISO, and it will be much interesting to see how full-frame lenses perform resolution-wise in the corners.


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## Isaac (Dec 19, 2011)

Gothmoth said:


> i think itÂ´s fake.
> a bad one.



+1


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