# Canon’s Official Full Frame Mirrorless Announcement Will Come After Photokina [CR2]



## Canon Rumors Guy (Aug 15, 2018)

> We’re told that most of the mirrorless hype will belong to Nikon ahead of Photokina next month. A solid source is saying that no official announcement in regards to a full frame mirrorless camera from Canon will happen before Photokina next month.
> While we couldn’t confirm an announcement date, we’re told that October 2018 continues to get mentioned as a possible month in which Canon will address mirrorless. Though that may not necessarily mean an announcement for a full frame mirrorless camera.
> There is still the possibility of a development announcement for a full frame mirrorless camera.



Continue reading...


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## Quarkcharmed (Aug 15, 2018)

Well the later the announcement is, the later we get the actual FF mirrorless. I think we should stick to the mirrorfull for the time being.


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## Treyarnon (Aug 15, 2018)

I guess Canon is waiting to see what Nikon does - and more importantly how people react to it - > with particular emphasis to how Nikon users react to the news of a new lens mount. 

But why wait untill after the major trade show to make a big announcement (or teaser, or whatever they be planning)? "before Photokina" does not rule out "During Photokina".


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## Memirsbrunnr (Aug 15, 2018)

So it will be in time for the next photokina.... Not holding my breath anymore on launches..


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## Canon Rumors Guy (Aug 15, 2018)

Memirsbrunnr said:


> So it will be in time for the next photokina.... Not holding my breath anymore on launches..



Well, the next Photokina is in May 2019, so you may be right.


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## MrAndre (Aug 15, 2018)

I am wondering if they will launch it this year then. Photokina this year is in perfect sync with christmas sales. Like you show your new camera around in september, release it right after, make the first slight sale for christmas. Therefore I assume that if Canon wanted to launch FF mirrorless this year, they would have made it happen for Photokina.


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## mrproxy (Aug 15, 2018)

Treyarnon said:


> I guess Canon is waiting to see what Nikon does - and more importantly how people react to it - > with particular emphasis to how Nikon users react to the news of a new lens mount.


I Canon has something near ready for production then it is to late to see and think about mount. If they are in stage to make a decision about the mount then we cannot expect anything within a year or more. 
Production in reality is really slow process. Yes they can produce 10k units per week, but to get to that is damn long process.


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## gwflauto (Aug 15, 2018)

Canon Rumors Guy said:


> Well, the next Photokina is in May 2019, so you may be right.


Where will that Photokina take place?


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## HudsonBob (Aug 15, 2018)

gwflauto said:


> Where will that Photokina take place?


Same place - Cologne.


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## BillB (Aug 15, 2018)

Treyarnon said:


> I guess Canon is waiting to see what Nikon does - and more importantly how people react to it - > with particular emphasis to how Nikon users react to the news of a new lens mount.
> 
> But why wait untill after the major trade show to make a big announcement (or teaser, or whatever they be planning)? "before Photokina" does not rule out "During Photokina".



There is also the possibility of an M5II, a 7DIII, or a 5DSRII, if Canon want to try for some EOSM or DSLR buzz.


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## Hector1970 (Aug 15, 2018)

I’m not sure why Canon would wait until after Photokina. As said above , just before or during might be more effective. I don’t know how far away Canon are in delivering something but they’d hardly be playing waiting and see how Nikon goes at this stage. Maybe if it’s a year away they have time to reengineer. I wonder will they announce any mirrormore full frame cameras soon.


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## takesome1 (Aug 15, 2018)

Canon's practice is to let the competition announce first. Maybe they see it as good manners and sportsmanship.

Why is it that it is always a surprise to everyone that they do this?

Every year it seems like the rumor starts Canon will announce something in time for or at Photokina, and it never happens.

Or the year of the Olympics, there is always the anticipation that Canon will announce a new 1D body or big white in time for the Olympics. It never seems to happen.

Now the Rumor is out that there will be 400mm f/2.8 III released. But the Olympics isn't even close!! What bad timing.


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## scyrene (Aug 15, 2018)

Treyarnon said:


> I guess Canon is waiting to see what Nikon does - and more importantly how people react to it - > with particular emphasis to how Nikon users react to the news of a new lens mount.



It's unlikely they can change any of their plans for a few months' time based on what happens in the next few weeks. Maybe they could marginally alter the way they market things, or the pricing, but essentially if there is a camera to be released in the near future, every aspect is pretty much finalised already. Additionally, they may well already know a lot more about Nikon's plans than we do - others have stated with authority that all the major companies have a good idea what their rivals are up to (call it industrial espionage or whatever).


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## amorse (Aug 15, 2018)

scyrene said:


> It's unlikely they can change any of their plans for a few months' time based on what happens in the next few weeks. Maybe they could marginally alter the way they market things, or the pricing, but essentially if there is a camera to be released in the near future, every aspect is pretty much finalised already. Additionally, they may well already know a lot more about Nikon's plans than we do - others have stated with authority that all the major companies have a good idea what their rivals are up to (call it industrial espionage or whatever).


Absolutely right that if anything is coming or being announced, then it is largely baked in at this point. 

We've heard a lot of rumours of cameras being tested or being in the hands of professionals for a while now. I can't help but wonder if some of the early versions got into professional hands long ago and the reviews were not what Canon was hoping for, resulting in some re-thinking of the approach, or pushing back of timelines to make adjustments where feasible. I mean, what's the point of testing with professionals if their input cannot change the course of development? Any change in course mid-development would certainly really lengthen the timeline for release I would think.


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Aug 15, 2018)

Canon has always seemed to me to wait until the competition has made their announcements. I remember making that same comment on CR many years ago after it first started up. I haven't seen anything to change my mind.

Obviously, any new design was completed over a year ago, about the only possible thing to finalize is a few firmware features that may or may not happen, depending on how well they work.

I expect some sort of sensor optimized for FF mirrorless, we have seen more than one patent that has a potential solution for AF issues on the outer edges of a DPAF sensor, and for light drop off that occurs at the edges for short flange back distances.


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## hmatthes (Aug 15, 2018)

While I really want a FF EOS in 5D specs, perhaps I'll do the 5Ds-II upon its announcement. A DPAF 50+meg sounds great!


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## goldenhusky (Aug 15, 2018)

CR2 on When Canon will announce their Full Frame mirrorless
CR4.5 on no matter when Canon announce their Full frame mirrorless it is going to be a disappointment but they will sell them by boat load

It is amazing how lucky Canon is. Despite having crappiest mirrorless cameras and world's worst native mirrorless lens line up they are #1 in mirrorless camera by sales. Look at Fuji's fate despite having kick ass cameras and awesome lenses they were nowhere in a position to be even counted in the percentage market share scale. Obviously Canon's Internet Defense Forces (CIDF) will argue Canon is the market leader, they know everything better than the photographers and there is data to prove. So no need for Canon to innovate for next 10 years. My opinion is unless Canon butt is in fire they will not move and that is not happening at all. No matter how disappointing their products are people still buying in to that. 

Here is what I have observed in Canon’ business model and that seems to be working. Come up with a lackluster camera. Overprice it when compared to features offered on similar products from competitors and then sell them by giving huge rebates, free carepak, free grip (wherever applicable) and give away printer and paper for free. In addition to that sell them cheaper through the backdoor round the year (If you don't understand what that is please ignore. I am not going to explain it). 

For e.g. Canon priced 6D2 $2000 but last holiday season it was on sale for $1350 post MIR including the below
BG-E21 Grip – Retail price $300
LP-E6N battery pack – Retail price $100
Pixma Pro-100 printer – Retail price $500
SG-201 - Paper 50 sheets – Retail price $100
Disclaimer: All prices are retail prices from Canon USA website. The street price might be lower.
If you add up the retail prices for each item Canon pretty much gave away 6D2 for nothing. Pretty much same deal with 5D4. I understand that is a holiday sale but my point is competitors do not discount products that much. That also gives an idea how much it is costing canon to make them.
Year around 6D2 is available for $1500 if you know where to get. I am not talking about unauthorized dealers. IMO at $1200 to $1500 range 6D2 is worth the price but not at $2000

I am on the camp asking for a camera that goes head on head with competitors’ products in terms of capability and I am even willing pay a 5-10% premium for Canon but Canon does not even wants to compete. Honestly speaking I feel CIDF are correct at least on this one “Canon’s strategy is working” so why bother even competing.


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## MrAndre (Aug 15, 2018)

goldenhusky said:


> For e.g. Canon priced 6D2 $2000 but last holiday season it was on sale for $1350 post MIR including the below
> BG-E21 Grip – Retail price $300
> LP-E6N battery pack – Retail price $100
> Pixma Pro-100 printer – Retail price $500
> SG-201 - Paper 50 sheets – Retail price $100



The same tactic as electric toothbrush manufacturers use... give away the tooth brush for almost free and then make money on the refills. I would love to see how much money Canon makes on lenses compared to cameras.


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## Mikehit (Aug 15, 2018)

goldenhusky said:


> Come up with a lackluster camera.



I guess it all comes down to your definition of 'lacklustre'.
I have Olympus mirrorless and Panasonic mirrorless as smaller portable versions of my Canon so I know from experience about different menu systems, useability, ergonomics and how those meld into my experience of photography. I am frustrated by the lag in the camera waking up and have missed several 'grab shots' because of the split second it takes for the MILC cameras to wake up, the EVF is difficult for focus tracking a fast moving subject, the reliance on menus instead of buttons I find a pain (yes, I know about quick menus etc...but that does not change my opinion), and the shortfall in AF for what I am most interested in (wildlife and birds in flight). But I like the WYSIWYG viewfinder. I like the compact size (but they are MFT, after all). And there a host of other pros and cons - but when push comes to shove I take my MILCs out as convenient tools, but I look forward to taking photos when I take the DSLR: it is in a different emotional bracket in that respect and I have read a few pros who say quite openly that the Sony for them takes the fun out of photography so it seems I am not alone. Interface to me is just as important as the fact it takes pictures - and it has been widely stated that Sony has proven incompetent at this for years (they are getting there but not yet) and for me it is one of the most basic aspects of a tool but they ignore it as though it does not matter.
I don't rely on photography for a living so all the hype about Sony sensor allowing you screw up an image and still recover it does not mean a lot to me. Nice to have, but not a driver for me to sell everything and move over.

So I do not find the Canons 'lackluster' at all. 



goldenhusky said:


> Overprice it when compared to features offered on similar products from competitors and then sell them by giving huge rebates,



A poor criticism - name me a manufacturer that does not offer rebates. In fact, Sony have had a recent 10-15% permanent reduction in their prices (in the UK) so it seems that your comment can be turned on Sony as well. 



goldenhusky said:


> Honestly speaking I feel CIDF are correct at least on this one “Canon’s strategy is working” so why bother even competing.


The thing is, of all those things that sound so wonderful are thing that very few people will ever really use, and fewer still will use regularly. The one issue that keeps coming up is the sensor and that is one area where Canon have only recently caught up with the 5DIV and the differences are now small. 
So take the sensor difference as matter of fact. Ignore a lot of the functions that arise from it being mirrorless (focus peaking, magnified view in the VF for manual focussing, WYSIWYG viewfinder), then what functions of the Sony actually make you think 'I would find that really useful in what I do'.
There are many critics of Canon who want them to 'compete at all levels', not because they use the functions they read about but to give them a warm and fuzzy feeling that Canon is dong something.


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## fullstop (Aug 15, 2018)

goldenhusky said:


> Despite having crappiest mirrorless cameras and world's worst native mirrorless lens line up they are #1 in mirrorless camera by sales. Look at Fuji's fate despite having kick ass cameras and awesome lenses they were nowhere in a position to be even counted in the percentage market share scale.



As many regulars here may likely certify, I am no _Canapologist_ Canon Defense League member. 

BUT: Canon EOS M cameras are definitely NOT "the crappiest mirrorfree APS-C cameras". And Canon EF-M lens lineup is neither, it is near perfect.

In my view Canon is #1 also in mirrorfree APS-C sales because
a) Product lineup is perfectly matched at target groups: new customers coming from smartphones, existing customers looking for a smaller [second] setup than their Canon mirrorslappers. All current EOS M cameras since M5/M6 are largely competitive in features and functionality. Even "entry level" EOS M50 at 500 bucks kicks Sony A6500 in the butt and any Fuji as well in terms of AF. 
All EOS M cameras are very compact, light, have decent functionality, decent build quality, good performance and - very important to target group: best-in-class user interface [Sony NEX/A6#### menu system anyone? Sony touch screen implementation? Fuji RAW converter woes?)

b) Pricing of Canon EOS M cameras is acceptable to very good. All affordable, although it could still be less. ;-) And EF-M lens prices are clearly total BARGAIN priced. No other manufacturer has lenses like EF-M 22/2.0 for something like 150 € street or an excellent, dirt cheap 11-22 or a killer 28 Macro lens with built-in LED lighting for close to nothing. Actually I should not mention it here, otherwise Canon may decide to increas eprices on those lenses. Yes, there are tons of mFT shards and tons of OEM and thirdparty Sony E-lenses. but many of them not really worth the money. Fuji lenses ... all fine and dandy, but essentially crop lenses at FF prices. Thats why Fuji's market share is neglibile and will stay there. Only lens missing in Canon EF-M lineup a short, moderately fast tele prime. EF-M 85/2.4 IS STM ... please Canon, thanks!

c) yes, Canon has the good luck of weak competition. Nikon 1 dwarf sensor = barrel burst. Samsung: unfortunately DOA [NX-1 ahead of its time and to expensive for crop]. Sony = occupied with FF, A6#### series and E-mount lenses have not received much love over the last few years. And prices are too high. Fuji: retro styling, yikes. Apparently there are less hipsters around than Fuji thinks. And Fuji wrongfully thinks, they can sell crop gear at FF prices. It ain't so.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 15, 2018)

Let me explain. No, there is too much…let me sum up. 

Canon designs and sells cameras and lenses that meet the needs of customers. Real customers who buy cameras and lenses. They don't make it a priority to add features that fuel the wet dreams of forum dwellers.

So, the forum dwellers will continue whining and complaining, real customers will continue buying cameras and lenses from Canon, and Canon will continue to dominate the ILC market.


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## Andreos (Aug 15, 2018)

I bought Canon's original D30 the minute it was available. Subsequently I have had the 10D, 5D, and 6D. So I have witnessed and participated in Canon's glacial development cycles and customer-antagonizing feature decisions first hand. I have stuck with Canon because I felt overall their end product was still the best available for my needs.

In fact, I never upgrade until I can identify a shortcoming of my current camera that is preventing me from advancing my technique. I have been at that point for a couple of years with my 6D. The 6D2 did not address the areas of improvement I needed. Neither does the 5DIV. The painful realization is, there is not one single Canon camera that _does _meet all my particular needs.

(Disclaimer: my needs are not yours, so please spare me argumentation on that point. I am happy for everyone completely satisfied with their Canon camera and I am not going to second-guess your needs or satisfaction. So don't second-guess mine!)

On the heels of my long-building disgruntlement with Canon, has arrived the extremely affordable Sony A7III which is very nearly the camera I would spec for myself. Coupled with the fact that Sony is actively fleshing out their lens line-up, that third-party lens support for Sony is coming on strong, and there are now two high-quality EF lens adapters available, all barriers for me switching to Sony are removed. All I have to do is pull the trigger and go.

From my perspective, Canon is fiddling around while Rome burns,. This delay, while very typical of Canon, ignores the fact that this time, things are different. There is very serious competition that is meeting Canon in all full-frame market segments, from entry level to high-res to sports. I suspect whatever mirrorless full frame cameras Canon announces will have been subjected to Canon's usual market-segmentation analysis and rife with "camera crippling" decisions. They are sticking with all their other scripts and I see no reason they won't stick to that script too!

Bottom line for me, it's just about time to cut opportunity costs associated with remaining a Canon customer, and decamp to Sony.


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## Treyarnon (Aug 15, 2018)

mrproxy said:


> I Canon has something near ready for production then it is to late to see and think about mount. If they are in stage to make a decision about the mount then we cannot expect anything within a year or more.
> Production in reality is really slow process. Yes they can produce 10k units per week, but to get to that is damn long process.


Broadly I fully agree - *IF* a new mirrorless system is within a year of launch, the design will be pretty much locked down.
But there are still things which Canon could learn from a Nikon launch - such as how how to communicate the value proposition to your core customers. 
Plus, we don't know how far out Canon's offerings are at the moment, or what they are planning - perhaps they have two cameras - one with an EF mount and one with a new mount both ready and waiting for the green button?


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## robinlee (Aug 15, 2018)

Be afraid, be very afraid... I'm leaning towards disappointment announcement.


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## takesome1 (Aug 15, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> So, the forum dwellers will continue *whining *and complaining, *real* customers will continue buying cameras and lenses from Canon, and Canon will continue to dominate the ILC market.



But forum dwellers are* real*.... whiny customers.


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## Isaacheus (Aug 16, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Let me explain. No, there is too much…let me sum up.
> 
> Canon designs and sells cameras and lenses that meet the needs of customers. Real customers who buy cameras and lenses. They don't make it a priority to add features that fuel the wet dreams of forum dwellers.
> 
> So, the forum dwellers will continue whining and complaining, real customers will continue buying cameras and lenses from Canon, and Canon will continue to dominate the ILC market.



I wouldn't rule out the various forum dwellers (over the many websites) as being a reasonable chunk of buyers of the extra/more expensive bodies and lenses.
I know I haven't bought any Canon bodies or lenses for a few years as I don't feel that the Canon camera have what I want. I have bought other brands though, which have fit the bill, so at least in my case, Canon lost a customer for at least a new body, and likely a new lens

I could be wrong, and it might just be my particular case, but I feel those extra features often do help with the overall potential of the camera


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## Ozarker (Aug 16, 2018)

Treyarnon said:


> I guess Canon is waiting to see what Nikon does - and more importantly how people react to it - > with particular emphasis to how Nikon users react to the news of a new lens mount.
> 
> But why wait untill after the major trade show to make a big announcement (or teaser, or whatever they be planning)? "before Photokina" does not rule out "During Photokina".



Why? These things are not done in a couple months time. Canon won't decide not to use a particular mount based on what Nikon users think when they see what they get.


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## Ozarker (Aug 16, 2018)

The more I hang around here the more I think there ought to be a Prozac giveaway. I am so very happy with my Canon gear that I couldn't think of switching. AF, speed, handling, colors, etc., are all so nice. While it would be nice to upgrade to the 5D IV, I have decided to wait on a possible 5D V simply for $ reasons. Mirrorless really doesn't interest me right now, but if anyone comes up with something that might make me change my mind I have to think Canon will. I wish I could use the "F" word here, but just %*&#@*! switch! So depressing. I'm also a member of a Pentax forum and those folks don't get down into the doldrums like so many do here.

Yup. There's going to be lots of complaining when Canon releases it's mirrorless FF camera, but the cameras will work and work well. They really will be weather sealed if Canon says they are, they won't overheat, and the menu system will be better than anyone else's. The lenses will be superior (we already have them), and I can't wait to see what Canon puts out there. Why is it that some of you always seem to have a cloud of gloom hanging over your heads? If that translates to the other areas of your lives, then wow, it sucks to be you.


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## dak723 (Aug 16, 2018)

goldenhusky said:


> It is amazing how lucky Canon is. Despite having crappiest mirrorless cameras and world's worst native mirrorless lens line up they are #1 in mirrorless camera by sales. Look at Fuji's fate despite having kick ass cameras and awesome lenses they were nowhere in a position to be even counted in the percentage market share scale. Obviously Canon's Internet Defense Forces (CIDF) will argue Canon is the market leader, they know everything better than the photographers and there is data to prove. So no need for Canon to innovate for next 10 years. My opinion is unless Canon butt is in fire they will not move and that is not happening at all. No matter how disappointing their products are people still buying in to that.



Just wondering if you have actually tried various mirrorless cameras before making your pronouncement. Or is it just the usual anti-Canon crap that is spewed out endlessly by the trolls?

Having owned Sony, Olympus and Canon mirrorless, I would consider the Canon M5 to be - by far - the best value and best mirrorless camera for the average camera buyer. If you are a pro, then no, the lens lineup may leave you wanting, but for an enthusiast or average camera user it is excellent. The lenses cover all the focal lengths except the longer zooms that birders and sports/wildlife folks may want, but the quality of the lenses for their price is way beyond what anyone else can offer. I really like my Olympus m4/3rds mirrorless, but if I want the best quality shot, I use the M5. I know color is subjective, but Canon still has the best - and one reason why I wouldn't even consider Sony again. Just wondering what exactly you think is so "crappy" about Canon mirrorless?


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 16, 2018)

Isaacheus said:


> I have bought other brands though, which have fit the bill, so at least in my case, Canon lost a customer for at least a new body, and likely a new lens.


And yet...Canon has gained market share. Thanks for helping demonstrate my point.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 16, 2018)

Andreos said:


> From my perspective, Canon is fiddling around while Rome burns,. This delay, while very typical of Canon, ignores the fact that this time, things are different. There is very serious competition that is meeting Canon in all full-frame market segments, from entry level to high-res to sports. I suspect whatever mirrorless full frame cameras Canon announces will have been subjected to Canon's usual market-segmentation analysis and rife with "camera crippling" decisions. They are sticking with all their other scripts and I see no reason they won't stick to that script too!


Interestingly, many similar comments were made in 2012 when Canon launched the EOS M line. I can easily see Canon following the script that took them to the top of the domestic MILC market. 




Andreos said:


> All I have to do is pull the trigger and go.
> 
> Bottom line for me, it's just about time to cut opportunity costs associated with remaining a Canon customer, and decamp to Sony.


Why haven't you? If had a nickel for every person on this forum who claimed they were 'just about to switch to _____' but then didn't...well, I don't really need the money, but it would make a chosen charity very happy.


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## Ozarker (Aug 16, 2018)

dak723 said:


> Just wondering if you have actually tried various mirrorless cameras before making your pronouncement. Or is it just the usual anti-Canon crap that is spewed out endlessly by the trolls?
> 
> Having owned Sony, Olympus and Canon mirrorless, I would consider the Canon M5 to be - by far - the best value and best mirrorless camera for the average camera buyer. If you are a pro, then no, the lens lineup may leave you wanting, but for an enthusiast or average camera user it is excellent. The lenses cover all the focal lengths except the longer zooms that birders and sports/wildlife folks may want, but the quality of the lenses for their price is way beyond what anyone else can offer. I really like my Olympus m4/3rds mirrorless, but if I want the best quality shot, I use the M5. I know color is subjective, but Canon still has the best - and one reason why I wouldn't even consider Sony again. Just wondering what exactly you think is so "crappy" about Canon mirrorless?



My guess would be that most of them have never owned or even tried what they keep saying is better, will never switch, and won't buy what they say they want even if Canon builds it. They just like to complain and go through their whole miserable lives never really being happy with anything. The tell tale sign is that they've been complaining for years and will continue to complain. They really don't mean what they say. They really have no idea what they are talking about. They read reviews, they watch YouTube, etc., and then act like they know something.


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## Isaacheus (Aug 16, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> And yet...Canon has gained market share. Thanks for helping demonstrate my point.



I'm afraid I don't see how my not buying a camera from Canon because there isnt one that fits what I want, proves that your point? The point of my comment was that forum members do buy gear (I.e are real customers) rather than just talk about it, and that in my case at least, the features that were available elsewhere that Canon don't offer, meant they didn't get a sale.

If canons marketshare has increased, that's all fine and well, but it doesn't really help my case if the cameras still don't fit the need


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## transpo1 (Aug 16, 2018)

Mt Spokane Photography said:


> Canon has always seemed to me to wait until the competition has made their announcements. I remember making that same comment on CR many years ago after it first started up. I haven't seen anything to change my mind.
> 
> Obviously, any new design was completed over a year ago, about the only possible thing to finalize is a few firmware features that may or may not happen, depending on how well they work.
> 
> I expect some sort of sensor optimized for FF mirrorless, we have seen more than one patent that has a potential solution for AF issues on the outer edges of a DPAF sensor, and for light drop off that occurs at the edges for short flange back distances.



We’re being played by the rumor mill- Canon is trying to build up excitement for whenever they do launch by leaking these ever shifting dates.


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## Andreos (Aug 16, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> We’re being played by the rumor mill- Canon is trying to build up excitement for whenever they do launch by leaking these ever shifting dates.



If that's the strategy, I don't think it's working very well. All I'm getting from it is an increased sense of annoyance.

Meanwhile, there's this:

*SAN DIEGO, *_*Aug. 15, 2018 –* Sony Electronics, Inc. – a worldwide leader in digital imaging and the world’s largest image sensor manufacturer – today announced that it has overtaken and held the No. 1 overall position in the United States full-frame interchangeable lens camera market in the first half of 2018, in both dollars and units. In fact, four out of every 10 full-frame cameras sold during this time period have come from the Sony brand.

Additionally, Sony has announced that within the overall mirrorless market, it has held the No. 1 position in both dollars and units for more than six years. These strong results can be attributed to the company’s leadership in transitioning the market from older DSLR technology to next-generation mirrorless cameras._

The details are here:
https://www.dpreview.com/news/09472...-full-frame-interchangeable-lens-camera-sales


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## gn100 (Aug 16, 2018)

goldenhusky said:


> CR2 on When Canon will announce their Full Frame mirrorless
> CR4.5 on no matter when Canon announce their Full frame mirrorless it is going to be a disappointment but they will sell them by boat load
> 
> It is amazing how lucky Canon is. Despite having crappiest mirrorless cameras and world's worst native mirrorless lens line up they are #1 in mirrorless camera by sales. Look at Fuji's fate despite having kick ass cameras and awesome lenses they were nowhere in a position to be even counted in the percentage market share scale. Obviously Canon's Internet Defense Forces (CIDF) will argue Canon is the market leader, they know everything better than the photographers and there is data to prove. So no need for Canon to innovate for next 10 years. My opinion is unless Canon butt is in fire they will not move and that is not happening at all. No matter how disappointing their products are people still buying in to that.
> ...


Yeah, Canon's market share for mirrorless is impressive, but its based on units sold - they have targeted the low value/high volume part of the market ….. that means low margins …….. looks good on quantity, but not so good on profit …….Fuji and Sony may be selling less, but they're in a different part of the market ….. the margin on a $3,000 lens is a lot more than a $300 lens! Canon are going to have to enter the high end market soon, or they'll suffer, but need to avoid a repeat of the M release or they'll seriously damage their reputation


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## MrAndre (Aug 16, 2018)

Andreos said:


> Meanwhile, there's this:
> 
> *SAN DIEGO, *_*Aug. 15, 2018 –* Sony Electronics, Inc. – a worldwide leader in digital imaging and the world’s largest image sensor manufacturer – today announced that it has overtaken and held the No. 1 overall position in the United States full-frame interchangeable lens camera market in the first half of 2018, in both dollars and units. In fact, four out of every 10 full-frame cameras sold during this time period have come from the Sony brand._



I want to see how the fanboys argue against that. Popcorn time!


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## Mikehit (Aug 16, 2018)

MrAndre said:


> I want to see how the fanboys argue against that. Popcorn time!


They quote being #1 in sales and to illustrate it they include a graph that shows relative growth, not absolute sales. 
That immediately sets my 'Sony caveat' radar going - you know, the sort of one where they brag about AF at f11 then the footnotes say 'in AF tracking it does not refocus after the first shot' and heap of others. And the announcement last year 'we are #1' that covered a period of only 2 months of a promo and we heard nothing more after that because they could not sustain the sales. 

Secondly, it covers the 6months following the release of the impressive A73 at a price that floored everyone so not only is there 'new model' syndrome but also the 'wow at that price I must get it' wave where the wallet rules the head. And I suspect that the price was there to deal a bow to the birth of CaNikon FF MILC. So let us see if Sony can maintain those sales.

Thirdly, the graph is about sales, not ownership. And it is limited to FF not the market as a whole. It will be a long, long time before Sony make inroads to the bread-and-butter APS-C end of the market.

Fourth, Sony sales are made largely of people switching systems or adding a second camera. 

Are Sony impressive cameras? Yep. 
But I was just responding to your comment about people arguing against it. I am not a Canon fanboy by any means, but the way you triumphantly embraced that press release makes me suspect you are a Sony fanboy (maybe in the closet still, but a fanboy nonetheless).


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## -pekr- (Aug 16, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> And yet...Canon has gained market share. Thanks for helping demonstrate my point.



Neuro - yes, Canon still dominates all markets .... e.g. like this? 

https://petapixel.com/2018/08/15/sony-is-now-1-in-full-frame-cameras-in-the-us/


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## Mikehit (Aug 16, 2018)

That is a snapshot in sales, not proof of being number one (see my comments above).


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 16, 2018)

-pekr- said:


> Neuro - yes, Canon still dominates all markets .... e.g. like this?
> 
> https://petapixel.com/2018/08/15/sony-is-now-1-in-full-frame-cameras-in-the-us/


For a 6-month period during which Sony launched a new FF camera and CaNikon's FF cameras have not been refreshed for quite some time. 

Sony should release a chartreuse FF MILC so they can issue a press release that they're the global market leader in sales of chartreuse FF MILCs.


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## MrAndre (Aug 16, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> But I was just responding to your comment about people arguing against it. I am not a Canon fanboy by any means, but the way you triumphantly embraced that press release makes me suspect you are a Sony fanboy (maybe in the closet still, but a fanboy nonetheless).



Truth be told, I am more of a Canon fanboy than anything else (despite an affection for fuji design). I am just really frustrated with Canon, because they keep disappointing. I have had the money set aside to upgrade my camera for 4 years now, but no camera that was worth being called an upgrade was released in this time frame. I waited with high hopes for the 6D2, which was a disappointment. The 5D4 would have been an upgrade, but it was out of my price range when it was released and now it just does not hold up to what other companies are giving you in a comparable price range.

I was really hoping Canon would close the gap with the FF mirrorless, but they are not in a hurry to make that happen. I am hoping the sony sales will give them some incentive to catch up, because I do not want to jump ship. I just want a camera with a justifiable price point and 2017 tech (mind you, not even 2018), thats all.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 16, 2018)

MrAndre said:


> ...I have had the money set aside to upgrade my camera for 4 years now, but no camera that was worth being called an upgrade was released in this time frame. I waited with high hopes for the 6D2, which was a disappointment. The 5D4 would have been an upgrade, but it was out of my price range when it was released and now it just does not hold up to what other companies are giving you in a comparable price range.
> 
> I was really hoping Canon would close the gap with the FF mirrorless, but they are not in a hurry to make that happen. I am hoping the sony sales will give them some incentive to catch up, because I do not want to jump ship. I just want a camera with a justifiable price point and 2017 tech (mind you, not even 2018), thats all.


You have sufficient funds for a 6DII but not a 5DIV, and you're disappointed with Canon so you're going to switch brands. What about lenses for the new camera? Sony lenses generally cost more than their Canon counterparts. I suppose the 3rd party adapters are getting better.


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## transpo1 (Aug 16, 2018)

gn100 said:


> Yeah, Canon's market share for mirrorless is impressive, but its based on units sold - they have targeted the low value/high volume part of the market ….. that means low margins …….. looks good on quantity, but not so good on profit …….Fuji and Sony may be selling less, but they're in a different part of the market ….. the margin on a $3,000 lens is a lot more than a $300 lens! Canon are going to have to enter the high end market soon, or they'll suffer, but need to avoid a repeat of the M release or they'll seriously damage their reputation



Smart comment. Canon’s MILC sales are coming from rock bottom pricing on low end models. Sony’s FF MILCs are appealing to people who want the the latest tech and are willing to pay good money for it. It’s similar to the iOS / Android situation- Android has more marketshare but Apple has all the profit. Not sure if that is really the case with Sony but certainly seems that they are targeting and gaining the high end of the FF prosumer market.... Which is why Canon and Nikon are finally moving in.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 16, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Smart comment. Canon’s MILC sales are coming from rock bottom pricing on low end models. Sony’s FF MILCs are appealing to people who want the the latest tech and are willing to pay good money for it. It’s similar to the iOS / Android situation- Android has more marketshare but Apple has all the profit. Not sure if that is really the case with Sony but certainly seems that they are targeting and gaining the high end of the FF prosumer market.... Which is why Canon and Nikon are finally moving in.



Consider history. Sony bought Konica/Minolta and sold DSLRs...they couldn’t compete with CaNikon, they abandoned the DSLR market and switched to APS-C MILCs. Canon launched the EOS M, which in it’s first year outsold every MILC in Japan except the 2-generation old, rock-bottom priced NEX model...and Sony launched a FF MILC and scaled back on APS-C MILCs. How much of Sony’s ‘innovation’ is merely them running away from markets where they can’t compete effectively, and into markets where there is limited to no competition? I wonder...now that Nikon (and likely soon Canon) are launching FF MILCs...where will Sony run away to NEXt?


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## JBSF (Aug 16, 2018)

Andreos said:


> If that's the strategy, I don't think it's working very well. All I'm getting from it is an increased sense of annoyance.
> 
> Meanwhile, there's this:
> 
> ...




The added emphasis is mine. So who made the other 60% of the full-frame cameras? Do some research on the other FF makers (there are only 3) and crunch the numbers. This will show that Canon's sales had to be a hair's breadth from Sony's. Canon is not concerned about when they release a FF MILC, even if it is nine months from now, because one or two fully featured bodies might permanently steal Sony's lead, just as Canon has taken the lead in the APS-C MILC realm. Sony has given Canon a multi-year case study in the features that consumers do or do not want or like, as well as the volume and pricing levels that Sony has conditioned people to. I suspect Canon's strategies are well conceived.


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## Andreos (Aug 16, 2018)

JBSF said:


> This will show that Canon's sales had to be a hair's breadth from Sony's. Canon is not concerned about when they release a FF MILC, even if it is nine months from now, because one or two fully featured bodies might permanently steal Sony's lead, just as Canon has taken the lead in the APS-C MILC realm. Sony has given Canon a multi-year case study in the features that consumers do or do not want or like, as well as the volume and pricing levels that Sony has conditioned people to. I suspect Canon's strategies are well conceived.



In the past few years, Sony's ILC camera sales have grown from basically nil to to within a hair's breadth of Canon. That certainly does indicate a well conceived strategy - on Sony's part.


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## transpo1 (Aug 16, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Consider history. Sony bought Konica/Minolta and sold DSLRs...they couldn’t compete with CaNikon, they abandoned the DSLR market and switched to APS-C MILCs. Canon launched the EOS M, which in it’s first year outsold every MILC in Japan except the 2-generation old, rock-bottom priced NEX model...and Sony launched a FF MILC and scaled back on APS-C MILCs. How much of Sony’s ‘innovation’ is merely them running away from markets where they can’t compete effectively, and into markets where there is limited to no competition? I wonder...now that Nikon (and likely soon Canon) are launching FF MILCs...where will Sony run away to NEXt?



You’re assuming that they will simply run away again this time when Canon/Nikon enter the market. Sony may have learned something here, too. Their increased investment in MILC lenses shows they may be in the market to stay this time. If they launch new professional services that will be a sign. I hope they do, because increased competition is good for all of us. Canon would have never made their more recent moves on the MILC market if Sony hadn’t shown them the way.


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## transpo1 (Aug 16, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> For a 6-month period during which Sony launched a new FF camera and CaNikon's FF cameras have not been refreshed for quite some time.
> 
> Sony should release a chartreuse FF MILC so they can issue a press release that they're the global market leader in sales of chartreuse FF MILCs.



Still, this says something- that what Canon and Nikon are currently offering is not sufficient for the market. Which is why Canon and Nikon are shifting gears to course correct. Again, as in my last response. Sony put the spotlight on FF mirrorless, experimented and included the right photo and video features, and has thus shown Canon and Nikon where the future profits are- and why they need to enter that market. 

Selling M50s on sale for $699 won’t address that.


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## VOTOXY (Aug 16, 2018)

I'm really excited to see what Canon is going to do with this FF Mirrorless.. Currently on a 70D, and hesitating to go to Sony despite owning a lot of EF L lenses..
Really looking forward to see if Canon will be capable to re-take the lead on the market, exactly like they did a long time ago with the EOS systems!
Hope it will be the 1dx equivalent in mirrorless with the EF mount.. It would be a dream! and they could take the lead on the a7rIII and the upcoming a7sIII


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## takesome1 (Aug 16, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Canon would have never made their more recent moves on the MILC market if Sony hadn’t shown them the way.



What you say makes sense.
Not the common type but more of the non.


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## amorse (Aug 16, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Still, this says something- that what Canon and Nikon are currently offering is not sufficient for the market.



Does it though? 

The market includes all buyers across a wide swath of time. Not all camera owners are in the market to upgrade at all times. There are always users of one brand or another waiting for "their brand" to release their next model before they make a change. Nikon announced being first in full frame in December right after releasing the D850. Why? Because a lot of people were waiting for Nikon to release the camera to upgrade. Nikon hadn't released a full frame camera since January 2016 and it was the D5 (which won't fit the budget of a lot of users): before that? The D810A released February 2015. Before that? The D750 in September 2014. Needless to say, Nikon users had pent up demand which got released all at once in buying the D850 leading to Nikon making that claim. That wasn't the start of an ongoing trend of full frame dominance by Nikon, it was a snapshot in purchases and release of demand all at once.

Just the same, Sony has had 2 full frame cameras released since November while Canon and Nikon have had none. It makes sense that they would have a lot of sales in that period - they've released 2 cameras in that period while the competition have released zero. Sure, some sales will come from people jumping from another brand, but much will come from a7ii and a7Rii users who've been waiting to upgrade. 

When Sony is first in full frame through a whole release schedule for Canon and Nikon they will have some bragging rights and be able to claim actual market dominance. Then Sony could claim that anyone who was waiting to upgrade in Nikon or Canon would have already done it. Until then, it's easy to cherry pick data to support a conclusion: the market is bigger than a snapshot in time.


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## fullstop (Aug 16, 2018)

Andreos said:


> In the past few years, Sony's ILC camera sales have grown from basically nil to to within a hair's breadth of Canon. That certainly does indicate a well conceived strategy - on Sony's part.



YES! It is! 

Up to now many Canon Fanbois in this fiorum claimed that SOny does not sell a lot of cameras, that they will never get anywhere near Canon etc. etc.

I find it amazing and well deserved how Sony has been kicking CaNikon's fat butts during the first half of 2018. Only thing hiolding Sony back from market dominance is their lens lineup, especially the pricing. If the bring 2 decent, fairly priced new APS-C cameras [EOS M50 competitor and M5/M6 competitor] plus some decent E-mount crop lenses without Zeiss label, but at Canon EF-M prices, and FE lenses that are affordable, they will go gold. Globally.


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## dak723 (Aug 16, 2018)

Andreos said:


> I bought Canon's original D30 the minute it was available. Subsequently I have had the 10D, 5D, and 6D. So I have witnessed and participated in Canon's glacial development cycles and customer-antagonizing feature decisions first hand. I have stuck with Canon because I felt overall their end product was still the best available for my needs.
> 
> In fact, I never upgrade until I can identify a shortcoming of my current camera that is preventing me from advancing my technique. I have been at that point for a couple of years with my 6D. The 6D2 did not address the areas of improvement I needed. Neither does the 5DIV. The painful realization is, there is not one single Canon camera that _does _meet all my particular needs.
> 
> ...




Yes, it sounds like you should. Go get your new Sony. Each person should get the camera that suits them best.

I would, however, make sure that you buy from someplace that accepts returns, or if you have a chance, rent the camera first. In my experience with both the Sony A7 and A7 II, I found that the top-notch specs were quite misleading and the cameras were very disappointing. Hopefully, you will not find this to be so.


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## transpo1 (Aug 16, 2018)

amorse said:


> Does it though?
> 
> The market includes all buyers across a wide swath of time. Not all camera owners are in the market to upgrade at all times. There are always users of one brand or another waiting for "their brand" to release their next model before they make a change. Nikon announced being first in full frame in December right after releasing the D850. Why? Because a lot of people were waiting for Nikon to release the camera to upgrade. Nikon hadn't released a full frame camera since January 2016 and it was the D5 (which won't fit the budget of a lot of users): before that? The D810A released February 2015. Before that? The D750 in September 2014. Needless to say, Nikon users had pent up demand which got released all at once in buying the D850 leading to Nikon making that claim. That wasn't the start of an ongoing trend of full frame dominance by Nikon, it was a snapshot in purchases and release of demand all at once.
> 
> ...



The fact is, we don’t know the demographic breakdown of Sony’s FF purchasers. One has to assume some are new to the system and some are upgrading. The indisputable fact is that neither of those demographics are interested in FF DSLRs from Canon and Nikon and therefore Sony is doing something right- which both Nikon and Canon are about to emulate with their own twist on mirrorless. The very fact that Canon and Nikon are jumping into this market shows that Sony is making an impact, regardless of overall marketshare.


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## Mikehit (Aug 16, 2018)

Andreos said:


> In the past few years, Sony's ILC camera sales have grown from basically nil to to within a hair's breadth of Canon. That certainly does indicate a well conceived strategy - on Sony's part.



You have it the wrong way round. 
Sony sales are nowhere near Canon if you look at the camera market as a whole. In a subsection (mirrorless) Olympus and Panaonic were the clear leaders.Then Sony caught on and made an impression with their Axxxx series - then Canon came to the mirrorless market and within about 2 years were selling more than Sony. The Sony moved into the FF market and have outsold Canon it seems in one market (the US) in one minor sector (FF).

It seems you have been drinking the Sony KoolAid.
I am not denying that Sony has been advancing their sales with some impressive machines, but that is ONLY in FF and any talk of 'Sony selling more cameras that Canon' is an overenthusiastic interpretation of a Sony press release. One concern for Sony fans must be that they, like Olympus and Panasonic, are concentrating on premium cameras but what is the market size for them? They can probably make a good living on that end of the market but if they want to sell more than CaNikon they have to move into the 'newbie' area of $500 cameras and that means APS-C and they are showing little advance in that key area.


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## amorse (Aug 16, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> The indisputable fact is that neither of those demographics are interested in FF DSLRs from Canon and Nikon and therefore Sony is doing something right- which both Nikon and Canon are about to emulate with their own twist on mirrorless.


The only indisputable fact here is that a subset of the market purchased more Sony full frame cameras over a short period than any other manufacturer: this is true. What this means for over all market share and whether or not Sony is taking the lead in the market or threatening the other manufacturers is not possible to infer one way or the other based on this data. I'm not saying it isn't/won't/can't happen, I'm saying this data doesn't tell us one way or the other. 

Again, if this was January 2018 Nikon would be holding that crown, but it was a blip in time and not indicative of actual market share. The same could prove to be true here, or Sony could actually be taking the lead. The data doesn't tell us. 

Think of it this way: if we were comparing whether Christmas trees sell better in New York State versus Sandals, our results may depend on when we collect our data. If we collect our data in December, I would bet Christmas trees sell more, but if we collect data in June I'd bet on Sandals. The only way to compare the two is to look at a year of sales. In the same way, to infer actual marketshare changes we need to see a full cycle. We really need to see who holds the crown over release periods from all the manufacturers.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 16, 2018)

Andreos said:


> In the past few years, Sony's ILC camera sales have grown from basically nil to to within a hair's breadth of Canon. That certainly does indicate a well conceived strategy - on Sony's part.


Ummmm.....no. Sony’s FF camera sales have grown and may be encroaching on Canon’s FF camera sales worldwide (we don’t know, only have information on the US market, and that information comes from Sony themselves). Far more APS-C cameras are sold than FF cameras, in the overall market Canon has ~50% of ILC sales, Sony is well under 20% of ILC sales. Are you actually suggesting that 20% is a hair’s breadth away from 50%, or are you just ignorant about the actual state of ILC market shares?


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 16, 2018)

fullstop said:


> YES! It is!
> 
> Up to now many Canon Fanbois in this fiorum claimed that SOny does not sell a lot of cameras, that they will never get anywhere near Canon etc. etc.
> 
> I find it amazing and well deserved how Sony has been kicking CaNikon's fat butts during the first half of 2018. Only thing hiolding Sony back from market dominance is their lens lineup, especially the pricing. If the bring 2 decent, fairly priced new APS-C cameras [EOS M50 competitor and M5/M6 competitor] plus some decent E-mount crop lenses without Zeiss label, but at Canon EF-M prices, and FE lenses that are affordable, they will go gold. Globally.


Someone else who’s ignorant about facts concerning market share. No surprise there. 

Sony launched the a7III near the start of that 6-month period, whereas CaNikon haven’t launched a new FF model for quite some time. If Nikon’s teased FF MILC launches any time soon, you can bet Sony will have their butts kicked back to the curb for full-year FF sales in the US.


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## fullstop (Aug 16, 2018)

Nikons mirrorfree FF cameras will probably NOT offer price/value to pose any sort of threat to Sony A7 III. 
My expectation for Nikon mirrorfree market share generally is rather low for the next 2 years at least.


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## Mikehit (Aug 16, 2018)

It probably won't. I wold be surprised if it did. 
But how many times does it have to be pointed out that high-tech spec sheets are clearly not that important to the general user - if it was then Sony would have been #1 for years, not just the last 6 months.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 16, 2018)

Time will tell, but I doubt we will see a press release from Sony on their full year 2018 FF ILC sales in the US. On the other hand, I think it's very likely that we will see a press release from Canon on them being the ILC market leader for a 16th straight year. We are still a long way from mirrorlacking cameras gaining a majority, and FF cameras, both DSLRs and mirrorlackers, are still a small minority of the ILC market.


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## ahsanford (Aug 16, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Ummmm.....no. Sony’s FF camera sales have grown and may be encroaching on Canon’s FF camera sales worldwide (we don’t know, only have information on the US market, and that information comes from Sony themselves). Far more APS-C cameras are sold than FF cameras, in the overall market Canon has ~50% of ILC sales, Sony is well under 20% of ILC sales. Are you actually suggesting that 20% is a hair’s breadth away from 50%, or are you just ignorant about the actual state of ILC market shares?



+1

Global ILC unit data, from just two weeks ago:

​
Don't underestimate the power units the the APS-C, Luke.

- A


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## transpo1 (Aug 17, 2018)

fullstop said:


> Nikons mirrorfree FF cameras will probably NOT offer price/value to pose any sort of threat to Sony A7 III.
> My expectation for Nikon mirrorfree market share generally is rather low for the next 2 years at least.



Agreed- whatever Nikon’s selling in those teasers looks expensive. I doubt they will compete at the $2K mark with the Sony A7III, at least right away. No, Canon and Nikon will keep the price on the higher end ($3K and up) with their first FF entries- this will offset any loss from DSLR sales and keep from commoditizing their FF MILCs too soon. These are both very conservative companies we’re talking about- Canon more so.


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## transpo1 (Aug 17, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> It probably won't. I wold be surprised if it did.
> But how many times does it have to be pointed out that high-tech spec sheets are clearly not that important to the general user - if it was then Sony would have been #1 for years, not just the last 6 months.



They clearly *are* important to the MILC market, which is why Canon is beginning to include 4K video in their mirrorless offerings (well, one MILC offering, anyway, and a poor implementation at that, but still- they included it). If a buyer is savvy enough to want a mirrorless instead of a DSLR, the same buyer will be savvy enough to want the latest specs.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 17, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> They [spec sheets] clearly *are* important to the MILC market, which is why Canon is beginning to include 4K video in their mirrorless offerings (well, one MILC offering, anyway, and a poor implementation at that, but still- they included it). If a buyer is savvy enough to want a mirrorless instead of a DSLR, the same buyer will be savvy enough to want the latest specs.


There's really no evidence to support that position. In the FF MILC arena, Sony has good specs, but there's no evidence that is driving sales...buyers can choose only between Sony and the uber-expensive Leica. No support there. In the APS-C MILC arena, the EOS M line has (according to internet wisdom) been underspec'd compared to the competition since its launch. Yet it's the best-selling MILC line (and was before the M50 with 4K launched). That argues strongly against your contention. 

It's certainly true that spec sheets are important to armchair experts and internet measurebaters. But the available sales data argue that spec sheets aren't really important to the majority of buyers. Consider...when they sold just DSLRs, Sony had ~13% of the ILC market share. Now, many years of MILC 'spec-sheet dominance' later, Sony has...wait for it...~13% of the ILC market share.


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## fullstop (Aug 17, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Someone else who’s ignorant about facts concerning market share. No surprise there.
> 
> Sony launched the a7III near the start of that 6-month period, whereas CaNikon haven’t launched a new FF model for quite some time. If Nikon’s teased FF MILC launches any time soon, you can bet Sony will have their butts kicked back to the curb for full-year FF sales in the US.



you are just providing possible explanations for current market share distribution.

re. Nikon one could add the fact, that their potentially best-selling FF camera model D850 was and is not really available in the USA for an entire year now. fact

if nikon manages sales logistics for Z6/z7 as poorly, they will not sell many in 2018 in the USA. 

and Canon's FF MILC/s will in all likelihood not be available at all during 2018. no X-mas/festive season sales. oO !

does not look like there's much threat to Sony's 2018 full year FF ILC market share in the US of A. it will rather be Sony continueing to kick CaNikon mirrorslappers in the butt.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 17, 2018)

fullstop said:


> you are just providing possible explanations for current market share distribution.
> 
> re. Nikon one could add the fact, that their potentially best-selling FF camera model D850 was and is not really available in the USA for an entire year now. fact
> 
> ...



Interesting about the D850! Likely made it easier for Sony. 

As for 2018 FF ILC sales in the US, probably Canon could drop the prices of the 5DIV and 6DII (fall instant rebate / printer bundle time) and that would wipe out Sony's small lead.


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## Mikehit (Aug 17, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> They clearly *are* important to the MILC market, which is why Canon is beginning to include 4K video in their mirrorless offerings (well, one MILC offering, anyway, and a poor implementation at that, but still- they included it). If a buyer is savvy enough to want a mirrorless instead of a DSLR, the same buyer will be savvy enough to want the latest specs.



About the only reason Sony has made such an impact is because of their sensor that caused so much interest in their products. I have long maintained that the take up of mirrorless would be much slower if it had been relying simply on the technological advantages of mirrorless. I am not saying that mirrorless would not have developed, just that the only reason the early A7s sold at all was because people were willing to put up with quite appalling ergonomics for what the sensor offered.

Your comment "if a buyer is savvy enough to want a mirrorless " implies some level of people who want DSLRs aren't savvy about photography and cameras which I find a rather pompous approach to what is really a very personal choice.


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## BillB (Aug 17, 2018)

fullstop said:


> Nikons mirrorfree FF cameras will probably NOT offer price/value to pose any sort of threat to Sony A7 III.
> My expectation for Nikon mirrorfree market share generally is rather low for the next 2 years at least.




If I recollect correctly, Nikon has announced the price points for its first 2 mirrorless will be around $2K and $3K. However, I also suspect that Nikon is going to have a tough time for a while making the price/value case to buyers, if only because of the cost of new lenses.


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## BillB (Aug 17, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Interesting about the D850! Likely made it easier for Sony.
> 
> As for 2018 FF ILC sales in the US, probably Canon could drop the prices of the 5DIV and 6DII (fall instant rebate / printer bundle time) and that would wipe out Sony's small lead.



Part of the picture is that Sony started selling FF mirrorless for $2K, a thousand bucks less than anything previously on the market. That will have vacuumed up a lot of demand from persons that weren't ready pay $3K for a new camera. We shall see how that plays out over time.


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## gwflauto (Aug 17, 2018)

HudsonBob said:


> Same place - Cologne.


Thks!


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## Uneternal (Aug 17, 2018)

ahsanford said:


> +1
> Global ILC unit data, from just two weeks ago:
> [...]
> Don't underestimate the power units the the APS-C, Luke.


Thats because Canon has like a bazillion cheap cameras in the mainstream market. Even if you count only mirrorless, they have currently at least 6 cameras in their portfolio.
It's a different story if you look at the professional market, which consists 90% of full frame cameras. 
Also, the professional market sets future trends which later lead into the mainstream market.
Thats why Sony's strategy is to capture the pro market first. They only got 3 cameras of the whole lineup targetted at the mainstream market.
All other models (A7, A7II, A7III plus their R and S variants) are targettet at the professionals.


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## Deleted member 380306 (Aug 17, 2018)

CanonFanBoy said:


> They really have no idea what they are talking about. They read reviews, they watch YouTube, etc., and then act like they know something.



Only I'm an owner and feel Canon have produced poor products of recent, yes I can sell and move on that's a given which I will do if the new Nikon is up to speed...

So lets take the 5d4, it seems the 4k video crop wasn't greatly received by pro owners nor were the massive files spun from that camera with them eating up memory card faster than you can buy them,(a lot for your computer to deal with also) + the restricted ISO in the 4k mode, and slow-mo video was also somewhat restricted compared to component cameras like the d850 and Canon thinking pros didn't want a flip out screen, then the time lapse video another let down compared to the d850, also they could have given some button illumination as on the d850 etc etc etc...

And we all know the fail of the 6d2, an over priced under performer with poor DR, missing head phone jack, card slot and no 4k

Both these Cameras cost some bucks with the 5d4 even now priced at £3,249 here in the UK, it's a shame they're limited on innovation, no wonder people feel let down by this company when you see what other brands are offering and putting all I've written aside they are capable of producing great work, only that when you're told on the companies website things like 'what a great video camera the 6d2 is' and then find it isn't really but it costs £2000 it starts the process of wondering WTF?

For the record I really like canon glass and the cameras produce great images but it seeming to feel now that canon doesn't like to give you much in return for your money!

Please convince us we're wrong on feeling this way...


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## Ozarker (Aug 18, 2018)

TonyPicture said:


> Only I'm an owner and feel Canon have produced poor products of recent...
> 
> For the record I really like canon glass and the cameras produce great images but it seeming to feel now that canon doesn't like to give you much in return for your money!



So which is it? Canon produces poor products? Or Canon's glass is great and the cameras produce great images? : Please.

By the way, which Canon camera(s) do you own? 6D II? You also own a Sony, don't you? Are you a pro? What evidence do you have to suggest the 5D IV was not well received by pros? When it comes right down to it the 5D mark IV is primarily a stills camera. Personally, I don't own a 4K monitor (Do they exist?) or 4K television so it doesn't matter to me. I don't shoot video at all. Have you personally run into DR issues? Or is that perception from youtube and bloggers? Exactly how many stops of DR do you want?

The 6D mark II is going for $1,599 here in the USA.

Anyway, Tony, you are not one of those who complains year after year and threatens to jump ship over and over again... which are the people I was talking about.


----------



## YuengLinger (Aug 18, 2018)

The delay in announcements suggests Canon is concerned that a new mount with a less than stellar adapter will be a belly-punch to EF owners--and sales.


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## fullstop (Aug 18, 2018)

"Stellar EF/EF-X adapter" is so simple, it won't cause any delay. Canon just needs to take EF-/EF-M adapter and change 2 parameters: diameter and length as required by EF-X mount. Less than 2 hrs for any Canon design engineer I'd hope.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 18, 2018)

YuengLinger said:


> The delay in announcements suggests Canon is concerned that a new mount with a less than stellar adapter will be a belly-punch to EF owners--and sales.


What delay?

Oh, you mean Canon not making an announcement based on _your_ timetable. That's not a delay, that's just your hubris.


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## Don Haines (Aug 18, 2018)

-pekr- said:


> Neuro - yes, Canon still dominates all markets .... e.g. like this?
> 
> https://petapixel.com/2018/08/15/sony-is-now-1-in-full-frame-cameras-in-the-us/



That’s because Nikon or Canon have not introduced a new FF camera for a while... anything new jumps to the #1 spot....


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## YuengLinger (Aug 18, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> What delay?
> 
> Oh, you mean Canon not making an announcement based on _your_ timetable. That's not a delay, that's just your hubris.



Or the perception of a delay could be from reading that an announcement is imminent four or five times this past year, only to read that the announcement will come later.


----------



## unfocused (Aug 18, 2018)

YuengLinger said:


> Or the perception of a delay could be from reading that an announcement is imminent four or five times this past year, only to read that the announcement will come later.



In order to have that perception, you'd have to fail to have any comprehension whatsoever about how a rumors site works.


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## YuengLinger (Aug 18, 2018)

unfocused said:


> In order to have that perception, you'd have to fail to have any comprehension whatsoever about how a rumors site works.


Lay it out for us.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 18, 2018)

YuengLinger said:


> Or the perception of a delay could be from reading that an announcement is imminent four or five times this past year, only to read that the announcement will come later.


Those were rumors. But hey, did you know the word gullible isn't in the dictionary?


----------



## transpo1 (Aug 18, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> There's really no evidence to support that position. In the FF MILC arena, Sony has good specs, but there's no evidence that is driving sales...buyers can choose only between Sony and the uber-expensive Leica. No support there. In the APS-C MILC arena, the EOS M line has (according to internet wisdom) been underspec'd compared to the competition since its launch. Yet it's the best-selling MILC line (and was before the M50 with 4K launched). That argues strongly against your contention.
> 
> It's certainly true that spec sheets are important to armchair experts and internet measurebaters. But the available sales data argue that spec sheets aren't really important to the majority of buyers. Consider...when they sold just DSLRs, Sony had ~13% of the ILC market share. Now, many years of MILC 'spec-sheet dominance' later, Sony has...wait for it...~13% of the ILC market share.



You're stretching here. Spec sheets do appear to be driving sales among FF buyers who want and pay $2-3K for a camera. The "armchair experts and internet measurebaters," as you call them, are the YouTube influencers and vloggers who drive public perception and purchasing decisions for the general public, and so as much as you might want to dismiss them, they do matter.

As for the marketshare, Sony only has 13% of the ILC market, but which 13%? It appears to be the 13% that Canon and Nikon want, since it seems Sony is appealing to a demographic interested in FF MILCs and which possesses actual purchasing power.

The EOS M line is the best selling MILC line because it's cheap, and since Canon is not content with only a low-margin MILC business, it is going to go after the demographic that Sony FFs appeal to. Canon wants the money. You can't make that much money on a $699 EOS-M.

You can, however, make a lot more if you sell a $2-3K FF MILC to a New York hipster. (Full disclosure, I live in NY, so nothing against NY hipsters.)

The very fact that Canon is entering this market proves the point- they want the FF MILC money that Sony is getting.

Incidentally, the spec sheet war has already been decided- Canon relented, and started to include 4K video in their MILC cameras. I suspect they will continue to do so. Why? Because specs do matter.


----------



## transpo1 (Aug 18, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> About the only reason Sony has made such an impact is because of their sensor that caused so much interest in their products. I have long maintained that the take up of mirrorless would be much slower if it had been relying simply on the technological advantages of mirrorless. I am not saying that mirrorless would not have developed, just that the only reason the early A7s sold at all was because people were willing to put up with quite appalling ergonomics for what the sensor offered.
> 
> Your comment "if a buyer is savvy enough to want a mirrorless " implies some level of people who want DSLRs aren't savvy about photography and cameras which I find a rather pompous approach to what is really a very personal choice.



Lol- pompous compared to the level of other forum posters here? Don't make me laugh. The level of condescension from you and others here is legendary. 

However, my intention was not to degrade DSLR buyers- only to differentiate between Camera Buyer A who knows what a mirrorless camera is, and Camera Buyer B who does not (and who likely doesn't even know that there are mirrors in some cameras). These are very simplistic differentiations- there are typically many more shades of grey.


----------



## neuroanatomist (Aug 18, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> You're stretching here. Spec sheets do appear to be driving sales among FF buyers who want and pay $2-3K for a camera.



You're conflating here. Buyers interested in a $2-3K FF camera have basically three options, two of which are several years old and long past peak sales, one of which is new and also the cheapest of the three. Price and novelty, not spec sheets, are the likely driver.



transpo1 said:


> You can't make that much money on a $699 EOS-M.
> 
> You can, however, make a lot more if you sell a $2-3K FF MILC



Which yields more profit – selling 150 cameras at $699 with a 10% margin, or selling 10 cameras at $3K with a 20% margin?


----------



## BillB (Aug 18, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> You're stretching here. Spec sheets do appear to be driving sales among FF buyers who want and pay $2-3K for a camera. The "armchair experts and internet measurebaters," as you call them, are the YouTube influencers and vloggers who drive public perception and purchasing decisions for the general public, and so as much as you might want to dismiss them, they do matter.
> 
> As for the marketshare, Sony only has 13% of the ILC market, but which 13%? It appears to be the 13% that Canon and Nikon want, since it seems Sony is appealing to a demographic interested in FF MILCs and which possesses actual purchasing power.
> 
> ...



Not sure the spec sheet war has been decided, whatever that means. Canon has released cameras with 4K, which has been trashed as underspec'd and noncompetitive and that may well continue. How would that change anything?

It looks to me as though Canon is setting up to match 3 cameras against the A7III: a high end M to create a lower cost mirrorless option using aps-c; the 6DII as a second lower cost option with a FF sensor, articulated screen and Canon's touchscreen user interface; and a new fullframe mirrorless that will be at or a little above the A7III price point. There will certainly be people who would regard the A7III as the clear choice in this situation, but who knows how well the numbers would work out in this scenario?


----------



## Deleted member 380306 (Aug 18, 2018)

CanonFanBoy said:


> So which is it? Canon produces poor products? Or Canon's glass is great and the cameras produce great images? : Please.
> 
> By the way, which Canon camera(s) do you own? 6D II? You also own a Sony, don't you? Are you a pro? What evidence do you have to suggest the 5D IV was not well received by pros? When it comes right down to it the 5D mark IV is primarily a stills camera. Personally, I don't own a 4K monitor (Do they exist?) or 4K television so it doesn't matter to me. I don't shoot video at all. Have you personally run into DR issues? Or is that perception from youtube and bloggers? Exactly how many stops of DR do you want?
> 
> ...



That wasn't meant as a dig, only responding to your post and explaining the issues....


----------



## ahsanford (Aug 18, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Canon wants the money. You can't make that much money on a $699 EOS-M.
> 
> You can, however, make a lot more if you sell a $2-3K FF MILC to a New York hipster.



That's pure speculation. We don't know the standard production cost of the various cameras. 

It could turn out that Sony is giving away their A7 III's at an asking price just a hair above their production cost in an effort to rack up unit sales to make "We're #1" announcements like we just saw in the news. Or perhaps Sony is selling a cut-rate A7 III to lure people into the ecosystem, only to hammer them with new lens prices.

Meanwhile, perhaps Canon is quietly making $200 profit per unit on that cheap EOS M you referenced b/c of production economies of scale.

- A


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## Mikehit (Aug 18, 2018)

YuengLinger said:


> Or the perception of a delay could be from reading that an announcement is imminent four or five times this past year, only to read that the announcement will come later.



And who said it was imminent? Not Canon that is for sure - it was internet forum chatter from people who like to think they are important enough to know what is happening.


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## Don Haines (Aug 18, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> What delay?
> 
> Oh, you mean Canon not making an announcement based on _your_ timetable. That's not a delay, that's just your hubris.


Actually, these are delays based on rumours....

So far, Canon has said that something will be coming at some point. They have not said what or when..... I find it astounding what we forum users have read into that...


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## BillB (Aug 18, 2018)

Don Haines said:


> Actually, these are delays based on rumours....
> 
> So far, Canon has said that something will be coming at some point. They have not said what or when..... I find it astounding what we forum users have read into that...



Confusion of internet buzz with reality seems to happen a lot.


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## YuengLinger (Aug 18, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Those were rumors. But hey, did you know the word gullible isn't in the dictionary?



Hey, are you saying people reading rumors on a rumors site are not supposed to react to he rumors? I do know the definition of "silly."


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## Don Haines (Aug 18, 2018)

BillB said:


> Confusion of internet buzz with reality seems to happen a lot.



We call it "acting presidential"


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 18, 2018)

YuengLinger said:


> Hey, are you saying people reading rumors on a rumors site are not supposed to react to he rumors? I do know the definition of "silly."


I'm saying that people should understand what rumors are, and how they differ from facts. But I'm probably expecting too much of some people.


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## YuengLinger (Aug 18, 2018)

BillB said:


> Confusion of internet buzz with reality seems to happen a lot.



I'm astounded that members of a RUMORS site believe we should only react to facts, not speculation. Did I miss something during the forum update? Did it get changed to a review site?

Neuro has reminded us over 10,000 23,000 (!) times to stick to the facts. He does this on a rumors forum! Yes, we all have our peculiar ways.


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## BillB (Aug 18, 2018)

YuengLinger said:


> I'm astounded that members of a RUMORS site believe we should only react to facts, not speculation. Did I miss something during the forum update? Did it get changed to a review site?
> 
> Neuro had reminded us over 10,000 times to stick to the facts. He does this on a rumors forum! Yes, we all have our peculiar ways.



Well, reacting to rumors is one thing, but believing that you have been misled when rumors don't pan out would seem to be something else.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 18, 2018)

BillB said:


> Well, reacting to rumors is one thing, but believing that you have been misled when rumors don't pan out would seem to be something else.


Exactly. Claiming that Canon is delaying their announcement of a FF MILC because the *RUMORED* date of that hypothetical announcement gets pushed back...well, it's hard to believe anyone with a modicum of intellect could draw any conclusions from that, but sadly it appears to have occurred.


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## Mikehit (Aug 18, 2018)

YuengLinger said:


> I'm astounded that members of a RUMORS site believe we should only react to facts, not speculation. Did I miss something during the forum update? Did it get changed to a review site?
> 
> Neuro has reminded us over 10,000 23,000 (!) times to stick to the facts. He does this on a rumors forum! Yes, we all have our peculiar ways.



I suggest you go back to why those comments materialised. Canon were accused of delaying their announcements whereas Canon have delayed nothing. All that has happened is that the announcement has not come at the time people have been saying they will - so how have Canon delayed anything?
If the comment had been that 'the announcement is later than the rumours suggested' that would have been accurate.


EDIT: Neuro beat me to it.


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## unfocused (Aug 19, 2018)

YuengLinger said:


> Lay it out for us.



Others have done it for me. But if you insist: Canon Rumors guy gets RUMORS from a variety of sources, known and unknown. He rates those rumors based on his assessment of their reliability. It's beyond bizarre to say that an announcement has been delayed based on the fact that people spreading rumors were wrong.


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## Silverstream (Aug 19, 2018)

I personally believe that even if they only have a concept camera and are not shipping for months, they will make some announcement at Photkina about a full frame mirrorless. Simply because they have people jumping ship all the time these days and they would be seen by the public as a tech follower of the others. Particularly with Nikon announcing their offering who, regardless of their actual sales position, has been their "nemesis" for many years. 
By announcing something coming months down the line, they will cut sales of competitors products by a certain percentage as it will cause some to wait. If they do announce something concrete with an ETA of a couple of months in time for Christmas sales, they will double or triple that percentage loss that their competitors experience.


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## YuengLinger (Aug 19, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> I suggest you go back to why those comments materialised. Canon were accused of delaying their announcements whereas Canon have delayed nothing. All that has happened is that the announcement has not come at the time people have been saying they will - so how have Canon delayed anything?
> If the comment had been that 'the announcement is later than the rumours suggested' that would have been accurate.
> 
> 
> EDIT: Neuro beat me to it.



Yes, I should have been more precise.


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## BillB (Aug 19, 2018)

unfocused said:


> Others have done it for me. But if you insist: Canon Rumors guy gets RUMORS from a variety of sources, known and unknown. He rates those rumors based on his assessment of their reliability. It's beyond bizarre to say that an announcement has been delayed based on the fact that people spreading rumors were wrong.



The speculation on the release of the Canon mirrorless reached the point that CR Guy posted that he was rescinding his rumor assessments because his sources were proving unreliable and contradictory. There never was any good information on what Canon was going to do. 

Rumors and speculation are tested by logic and facts. That is where the facts come into it. 
Speculation is ok, but so is testing the speculation with logic and facts. Speculation based on the absence of facts to the contrary often fails to persuade everyone.


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## Deleted member 380306 (Aug 19, 2018)

Silverstream said:


> I personally believe that even if they only have a concept camera and are not shipping for months, they will make some announcement at Photkina about a full frame mirrorless. Simply because they have people jumping ship all the time these days and they would be seen by the public as a tech follower of the others. Particularly with Nikon announcing their offering who, regardless of their actual sales position, has been their "nemesis" for many years.
> By announcing something coming months down the line, they will cut sales of competitors products by a certain percentage as it will cause some to wait. If they do announce something concrete with an ETA of a couple of months in time for Christmas sales, they will double or triple that percentage loss that their competitors experience.



Would it be a smart move for Canon to give out a press release/announcement about their future FF mirrorless plans on the 22nd of August I.E jumping in right before Nikon's 'livestreaming special event' on the 23rd... Just a thought!


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## Mikehit (Aug 19, 2018)

I don't know whether it would be 'smart' but it is certainly a valid tactic. However it is not one that I have recognised Canon as having done in the past so I don't think it will happen here. 
There are rumours that Sony is waiting to announce some mega-spec camera soon after Canon and Nikon announce theirs as a real spoiler. I think where Sony have the edge at the moment is not so much the sensors as the processors they are producing - if you have the edge in processors you can move more data more quickly which opens the possibility of something high-MP images at as yet unseen frames per second, or video with high frame rate. The challenge they have is cooling the damned thing and that will likely mean a larger camera which they have shied away from so far...


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## dak723 (Aug 19, 2018)

If I remember correctly, the initial and most reliable rumors have always said an announcement on the new Mirrorless in the last quarter of 2018. We are not yet in the last quarter of 2018.


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## BillB (Aug 19, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> I don't know whether it would be 'smart' but it is certainly a valid tactic. However it is not one that I have recognised Canon as having done in the past so I don't think it will happen here.
> There are rumours that Sony is waiting to announce some mega-spec camera soon after Canon and Nikon announce theirs as a real spoiler. I think where Sony have the edge at the moment is not so much the sensors as the processors they are producing - if you have the edge in processors you can move more data more quickly which opens the possibility of something high-MP images at as yet unseen frames per second, or video with high frame rate. The challenge they have is cooling the damned thing and that will likely mean a larger camera which they have shied away from so far...



Sony has rolled out the A9, the A7RIII and the A7III fairly recently. That represents a fair amount of up front money in a stable to shrinking market. I wonder where they are in terms of their sales targets and whether they are in a frame of mind to roll the dice again.


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## Mikehit (Aug 19, 2018)

BillB said:


> Sony has rolled out the A9, the A7RIII and the A7III fairly recently. That represents a fair amount of up front money in a stable to shrinking market. I wonder where they are in terms of their sales targets and whether they are in a frame of mind to roll the dice again.



I think Sony definitely see a way to stay ahead of the curve by always having a camera in waiting to trump whatever it is that Canon and Nikon announce. 
Now, given that Canikon release cycle is 4-5 years in the FF market, will Sony keep releasing at this rate? I doubt it. Firstly as you say is the money. But also, as I have said elsewhere, the cost-benefit curve will fall off quite rapidly. 
40MP to 60MP? Who cares?
In-camera focus bracketing - nice...but how many will actually use it?
17 stops DR vs 15 stops? Who cares beyond a few pros? You only need to go onto Instagram and Flickr to see what the mass market think of blown out highlights and blocked shadows (hint: they don't care)
Yes, the enthusiasts will keep most manufacturers happy to a point, but in 4-5 years all brands will be pretty much on a level again and you will be left (again) with 'which name do I know' - and that will be CaNikon with Sony a meritable 3rd. 

However, Sony have a habit of producing high tech stuff that is way ahead of whatever it is that the customer needs and then dropping out of it quite quickly when the customers do not prove to be as hungry for it as they first thought: Vaio laptops for example or Betamax as a lesser example. Both had distinct advantages when you looked at the drivers in isolation. The Vaio fitted the laptop brief perfectly for a portable system but to get something truly useful you had to bolt on all sorts of bits and pieces which people found a pain in the butt (that old interface/useability thing again being a far second to the technological capability).
Similarly with their camera gear, people like sharp images, and the Sony cameras fit that fantastically well. But as the fading camera market shows, the number of photographers for whom sharpness is a key driver is minimal, and as with Vaio haptics will play a part and I think Sony, like Olympus and Panasonic will move into larger bodies when people realise using a small form camera handheld all day can be uncomfortable. And once they do that they will move back into Canon territory.
And there is also the emotional side - newbies still want 'cameras like the pros use' and by the time the idea that that means DSLRs is dispelled, there is a good chance that CaNikon will be firmly entrenched in the mirrorless market and useability will beat technology in the deciding factors.

And (as with Vaio) will that 'meritable 3rd' be enough to keep them in the market? Their history makes me wonder.


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## transpo1 (Aug 20, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> You're conflating here. Buyers interested in a $2-3K FF camera have basically three options, two of which are several years old and long past peak sales, one of which is new and also the cheapest of the three. Price and novelty, not spec sheets, are the likely driver.
> 
> 
> 
> Which yields more profit – selling 150 cameras at $699 with a 10% margin, or selling 10 cameras at $3K with a 20% margin?



Actually, I think you’re conflating here- different demos purchase differently. Some will purchase based on novelty and price. Some will purchase based on novelty and specs. Specs matter, particularly with creators and influencers. 

Bump a $2k FF camera with 20% margin up to 25 cameras sold and it’s a different story, isn’t it? About cost parity. Which is why Canon had to ask ourselves- “why aren’t we in the FF MILC market?” They want the Sony FF money demo and purchasers that Sony has found. Simple. So they will come out with a FF MILC camera with competitive specs. 

Named “R,” for “Response to MILC demographic.”


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## transpo1 (Aug 20, 2018)

ahsanford said:


> That's pure speculation. We don't know the standard production cost of the various cameras.
> 
> It could turn out that Sony is giving away their A7 III's at an asking price just a hair above their production cost in an effort to rack up unit sales to make "We're #1" announcements like we just saw in the news. Or perhaps Sony is selling a cut-rate A7 III to lure people into the ecosystem, only to hammer them with new lens prices.
> 
> ...



Certainly possible, but the fact remains that Sony is selling FF MILCs at $2K, and Canon wants in on this demo of purchasers. Why wouldn’t they? They notice that certain creators and influencers are buying a $2K Sony when they could be buying a $2K Canon. Canon wants that money and is creating a new line of FF camera(s) for it.


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## transpo1 (Aug 20, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Actually, I think you’re conflating here- different demos purchase differently. Some will purchase based on novelty and price. Some will purchase based on novelty and specs. Specs matter, particularly with creators and influencers.
> 
> Bump a $2k FF camera with 20% margin up to 25 cameras sold and it’s a different story, isn’t it? About cost parity. Which is why Canon had to ask ourselves- “why aren’t we in the FF MILC market?” They want the Sony FF money demo and purchasers that Sony has found. Simple. So they will come out with a FF MILC camera with competitive specs.
> 
> Named “R,” for “Response to MILC demographic.”



Oh, P.S. if it’s only about which products are new and “not several years old and past peak sales,” Canon could just release a couple new DSLRs, but instead are creating a new line of FF mirrorless cameras. For anyone with any intelligence, that will give a clue as to where the market is going ans what Canon is doing about it.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 20, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Actually, I think you’re conflating here- different demos purchase differently. Some will purchase based on novelty and price. Some will purchase based on novelty and specs. Specs matter, particularly with creators and influencers.
> 
> Bump a $2k FF camera with 20% margin up to 25 cameras sold and it’s a different story, isn’t it? About cost parity. Which is why Canon had to ask ourselves- “why aren’t we in the FF MILC market?” They want the Sony FF money demo and purchasers that Sony has found. Simple. So *they will come out with a FF MILC camera with competitive specs.*


I’d bet real money that many on this forum, and also DPR, will find the specs of a Canon FF MILC to be less than competitive. There will be much angst over how much better the Sony (and possibly Nikon) FF MILCs are in terms of specs. But Canon will sell more of them than Sony (and probably Nikon). Which will further confirm my point that the buying decisions are not being driven by spec lists (which, to remind you, was what I took issue with originally – your claim that Canon wants to tap into the FF MILC demographic for fun and profit is logical and correct, but is also a tangent).


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 20, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Oh, P.S. if it’s only about which products are new and “not several years old and past peak sales,” Canon could just release a couple new DSLRs, but instead are creating a new line of FF mirrorless cameras. For anyone with any intelligence, that will give a clue as to where the market is going ans what Canon is doing about it.


Canon created a new line of APS-C MILCs back in 2012. That was a clue as to where the market was going and what Canon did about it. The market remains majority DSLRs, but Canon has a major chunk of the MILC market and remains the dominant manufacturer for ILCs overall. I don’t expect a FF MILC to change any of that.


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## transpo1 (Aug 20, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> I’d bet real money that many on this forum, and also DPR, will find the specs of a Canon FF MILC to be less than competitive. There will be much angst over how much better the Sony (and possibly Nikon) FF MILCs are in terms of specs. But Canon will sell more of them than Sony (and probably Nikon). Which will further confirm my point that the buying decisions are not being driven by spec lists (which, to remind you, was what I took issue with originally – your claim that Canon wants to tap into the FF MILC demographic for fun and profit is logical and correct, but is also a tangent).



We’ll see- but they are already including (and will continue to include on their FF MILCs) some “competitive specs” such as 4K video that their market research has determined purchasers are interested in, so Canon actually disagrees with your theory about competitive specs. 

And “fun?” Haha. I never said that- Canon would never do anything “for fun.” It’s all profit. And, as said ad nauseum, they see profit in the direction Sony is heading with FF MILC.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 20, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> ... “competitive specs” such as 4K video...


Competitive?

https://www.eoshd.com/2018/02/warning-4k-canon-eos-m50/


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## transpo1 (Aug 20, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Canon created a new line of APS-C MILCs back in 2012. That was a clue as to where the market was going and what Canon did about it. The market remains majority DSLRs, but Canon has a major chunk of the MILC market and remains the dominant manufacturer for ILCs overall. I don’t expect a FF MILC to change any of that.



Yep, I know- I bought the original EOS-M- bad AF but great IQ and 1080p video quality. 

Canon could have been much farther ahead in MILC development and profits with even more marketshare in MILC had they the vision and will to develop the FF mirrorless market first. They were afraid to cannibalize their DSLR lines, however. They would also have more buzz and excitement surrounding their products if they had not held back or crippled certain features such as 4K video, etc., but they chose to protect their Cinema EOS line instead.


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## transpo1 (Aug 20, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Competitive?
> 
> https://www.eoshd.com/2018/02/warning-4k-canon-eos-m50/



Yup, not very- after all this time, they’re still afraid to enable high quality 4K video on their cameras. But they enable a crippled version so they can put the 4K moniker on the box for marketing purposes. 

Shameful.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 20, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Canon could have been much farther ahead in MILC development and profits with even more marketshare in MILC had they the vision and will to develop the FF mirrorless market first.



Sony could have driven Canon out of the ILC business if they'd had the vision and will to develop an extensive portfolio of lenses and better ergonomics. 

Gee, the woulda-shoulda-coulda speculation game is fun, right. But we should probably stick to reality instead of making crap up. 




transpo1 said:


> They would also have more buzz and excitement surrounding their products if they had not held back or crippled certain features such as 4K video, etc., but they chose to protect their Cinema EOS line instead.



Yes, it's important for Canon to protect the Cine from cannibalization by their consumer-level ILCs. There's a huge overlap in those markets, Canon really dodged a bullet there. That's also why the Cine lenses, even the ones with the EF mount, don't have autofocus – can't have those Cine lenses cannibalizing EF lens sales. 

We now return you to your regularly-scheduled reality.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 20, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Yup, not very- after all this time, they’re still afraid to enable high quality 4K video on their cameras. But they enable a crippled version so they can put the 4K moniker on the box for marketing purposes.


Yet somehow, the EOS M series became the best-selling MILC line globally before having 4K on the box. Because, you know, specs are so important.


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## BillB (Aug 20, 2018)

So the EF40mm f2.8 is as about small as one can go. Why is there any reason to think that a shorter flange distance will enable smaller lenses at any length above 40mm? Again, how much of a size reduction is possible with a new mount with a shorter flange difference and is it enough to have practical value? (The practical value would vary from prison to person.)


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## Don Haines (Aug 20, 2018)

BillB said:


> So the EF40mm f2.8 is as about small as one can go. Why is there any reason to think that a shorter flange distance will enable smaller lenses at any length above 40mm? Again, how much of a size reduction is possible with a new mount with a shorter flange difference and is it enough to have practical value? (The practical value would vary from prison to person.)



You can make lenses shorter, but it makes chromatic aberration worse.... correct me if I am wrong, but people go FF for quality and most will not trade quality for size.....


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## BillB (Aug 20, 2018)

Don Haines said:


> You can make lenses shorter, but it makes chromatic aberration worse.... correct me if I am wrong, but people go FF for quality and most will not trade quality for size.....



And if they are willing to trade quality for smaller size why would they spend the money for FF?


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## Mikehit (Aug 20, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Yup, not very- after all this time, they’re still afraid to enable high quality 4K video on their cameras. But they enable a crippled version so they can put the 4K moniker on the box for marketing purposes.
> 
> Shameful.



Based on several overviews I have read over the time, the issue is not that 'they chosee not to' but that they do not have the processors capable of managing the data flow to take FF and down res to 4k. Canon want/need to have full control over the supply chain and that includes making their own sensors and processors. Although some will see this as a mistake, it does not seem to have hurt them so far.
Shameful? I would say not. Wise marketing move? That is a different matter.


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## snappy604 (Aug 20, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> I don't know whether it would be 'smart' but it is certainly a valid tactic. However it is not one that I have recognised Canon as having done in the past so I don't think it will happen here.
> There are rumours that Sony is waiting to announce some mega-spec camera soon after Canon and Nikon announce theirs as a real spoiler. I think where Sony have the edge at the moment is not so much the sensors as the processors they are producing - if you have the edge in processors you can move more data more quickly which opens the possibility of something high-MP images at as yet unseen frames per second, or video with high frame rate. The challenge they have is cooling the damned thing and that will likely mean a larger camera which they have shied away from so far...




Interesting, I heard that Sony rumor as well from other un-related channels. Brushed it off, but hearing it here makes me wonder.


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## AlanF (Aug 20, 2018)

I have been trying out all-in-one zoom cameras to accompany our 5DSR-5DIV-100--400mmII-400mmDOII for our big safari trip so we can be at the ready fror near and far without having to change lenses. One possibility is my M5, which with the 18-150 is very powerful, but it is not optimal for fast AF and picking out small subjects. So, I have been playing with the Sony RX10 IV, and have been blown away by its competence. The lens is sharp from 24-600mm, and its lock-on AF detects objects and sticks to them like glue - it grabs birds in flight, and it picks out stationary birds against backgrounds. Obviously, there are compromises with a 1" sensor. But here are some shots I took of a soap bubble at iso 1250-f/4 and 600mm equivalent. It was drifting across the river and the camera never lost perfect focus once. The first is a crop, and the second the full-size reduced ~2x. Now, I want Canon to match this focussing ability so I can use my lenses with new bodies.


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## transpo1 (Aug 20, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Yet somehow, the EOS M series became the best-selling MILC line globally before having 4K on the box. Because, you know, specs are so important.





neuroanatomist said:


> Yet somehow, the EOS M series became the best-selling MILC line globally before having 4K on the box. Because, you know, specs are so important.



The best-selling- maybe. Flooding the market with cheap cameras does that. The most-renowned? Not at all.

So why would Canon add 4K video then? Tell me.


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## transpo1 (Aug 20, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Sony could have driven Canon out of the ILC business if they'd had the vision and will to develop an extensive portfolio of lenses and better ergonomics.
> 
> Gee, the woulda-shoulda-coulda speculation game is fun, right. But we should probably stick to reality instead of making crap up.
> 
> ...



Nice try- but you may be the only one who thinks Canon _didn't_ try to protect Cinema EOS by leaving 4K video out of DSLRs. And, of course, protecting higher-tier DSLRs.

Unless of course, you want to go the "well, the processor couldn't handle it / it created heat issues" route. Could this honestly be the case we didn't see 4K in Canon DSLRs for years? Maybe. I think mostly Canon didn't want to risk cannibalization of the aforementioned lines / models.

Back to your myopic reality now, sir. Enjoy.


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## transpo1 (Aug 20, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> Based on several overviews I have read over the time, the issue is not that 'they chosee not to' but that they do not have the processors capable of managing the data flow to take FF and down res to 4k. Canon want/need to have full control over the supply chain and that includes making their own sensors and processors. Although some will see this as a mistake, it does not seem to have hurt them so far.
> Shameful? I would say not. Wise marketing move? That is a different matter.



Well, I wouldn't be proud to ship a "4K" camera with a crop like that. So, yeah, it seems like a shameful marketing move. 

Given the M50 has a new processor, I think the likely explanation is that Canon didn't want to exert the resources to make it work on a camera which sells that cheap. Also, their heart was just not in putting high quality 4K in it to begin with out of fear of cannibalizing higher-end models like the 5DIV (which ironically, also has a rather large crop).

They were getting so much crap for lack of 4K they included a cropped version as a token gesture.


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## Mikehit (Aug 20, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> The best-selling- maybe. Flooding the market with cheap cameras does that. The most-renowned? Not at all.
> 
> So why would Canon add 4K video then? Tell me.



The M5 is much more expensive than the supposedly superior A6500, so it seems they are not 'flooding the market with cheap cameras - it seems Sony tried that and failed.
There is a difference between adding a functionality to meet some level of expectations and expecting that functionality to be the main reason to buy the camera. By your logic the reason Nikon added focus bracketing to their D850 was because that is an essential part of the buying specs for the public.


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## Mikehit (Aug 20, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Nice try- but you may be the only one who thinks Canon _didn't_ try to protect Cinema EOS by leaving 4K video out of DSLRs. And, of course, protecting higher-tier DSLRs.
> 
> Unless of course, you want to go the "well, the processor couldn't handle it / it created heat issues" route. Could this honestly be the case we didn't see 4K in Canon DSLRs for years? Maybe. I think mostly Canon didn't want to risk cannibalization of the aforementioned lines / models.
> 
> Back to your myopic reality now, sir. Enjoy.


Let's get this right - when people criticise Canon for not having 4k, they are criticising Canon for not having FF video downsampled to 4k. And Canon is perfectly right when they say that when people are serious about video they will use the Cxxx models - 'serious' video on DSLR is actually a minority requirement from a relatively small, but very vocal and very high profile group of youtubers.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 20, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> The best-selling- maybe. Flooding the market with cheap cameras does that. The most-renowned? Not at all.
> 
> So why would Canon add 4K video then? Tell me.


It was your contention that spec lists drive purchasing decisions. When presented with evidence to the contrary, you decided to move the goal posts to spec lists drive renown. Nice try. 

No doubt there is some level of consumer demand for 4K. The point is, Canon managed to sell plenty of cameras at all levels without it.


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## Mikehit (Aug 20, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Well, I wouldn't be proud to ship a "4K" camera with a crop like that. So, yeah, it seems like a shameful marketing move.
> 
> Given the M50 has a new processor, I think the likely explanation is that Canon didn't want to exert the resources to make it work on a camera which sells that cheap. Also, their heart was just not in putting high quality 4K in it to begin with out of fear of cannibalizing higher-end models like the 5DIV (which ironically, also has a rather large crop).
> 
> They were getting so much crap for lack of 4K they included a cropped version as a token gesture.



That reinfoces my point above. 
The M50 and 5DIV are 4k - whether you like it or not. It is not 'cropped' 4k at all. The Sony takes FF and downsizes to 4k. It is that distinction that people criticise it for.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 20, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Nice try- but you may be the only one who thinks Canon _didn't_ try to protect Cinema EOS by leaving 4K video out of DSLRs. And, of course, protecting higher-tier DSLRs.


I'm not the only one. But there is substantial overlap between the group of people who believe that's what Canon was doing, and the group of people who don't have a clue about business, economics, and marketing.


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## snappy604 (Aug 20, 2018)

AlanF said:


> I have been trying out all-in-one zoom cameras to accompany our 5DSR-5DIV-100--400mmII-400mmDOII for our big safari trip so we can be at the ready fror near and far without having to change lenses. One possibility is my M5, which with the 18-150 is very powerful, but it is not optimal for fast AF and picking out small subjects. So, I have been playing with the Sony RX10 IV, and have been blown away by its competence. The lens is sharp from 24-600mm, and its lock-on AF detects objects and sticks to them like glue - it grabs birds in flight, and it picks out stationary birds against backgrounds. Obviously, there are compromises with a 1" sensor. But here are some shots I took of a soap bubble at iso 1250-f/4 and 600mm equivalent. It was drifting across the river and the camera never lost perfect focus once. The first is a crop, and the second the full-size reduced ~2x. Now, I want Canon to match this focussing ability so I can use my lenses with new bodies.



nice... impressed a point and shoot did that. 

ergonomics, feel, etc are important, but at some point some of the gadgetry, 'gimmicks' and specs do matter.. most is marketing drivel, but some is very useful. I remember people scoffing on digital vs film.. and then later about how useless live view was.. I remember same going from 720p to 1080p tvs.. and now 4k tvs. the increments add up.. the arguments about mirrorless, EVF, 4k video sounds similar. 

These are tools and can be used creative new things that were not always possible before. Digital zoom on live view with manual focus is fantastic for tack sharp landscapes, especially in low light situations. High megapixels allow cropping creatively later. 1080p was a big video improvement over 720p.. 4k maybe less but still a good thing. The focus tracking you mentioned, fantastic new opportunities. Doing it manually was possible, but having a was to do it automatically, great!

bleh.. it bugs me watching the endless nitpicking about new features/technology.


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## Don Haines (Aug 20, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> I'm not the only one. But there is substantial overlap between the group of people who believe that's what Canon was doing, and the group of people who don't have a clue about business, economics, and marketing.


A lot of people are hard wired to believe conspiracy theories. The leaving out 4K is a prime example.… In this case, Canon would have had to be risking their place in a billion dollar market in order to protect a tens of millions market....

or it could have been overheating issues and they didn't want to have to do warranty repairs on 50 million DSLRs.......


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## transpo1 (Aug 20, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> I'm not the only one. But there is substantial overlap between the group of people who believe that's what Canon was doing, and the group of people who don't have a clue about business, economics, and marketing.



Haha. You'd like to think you have a clue, don't you? In actuality, though- things are different.

As you know (or at least, as you should know if you read it), Canon execs have admitted in recent statements and interviews that they need to risk cannibalization now by including features like 4K, etc.

So...again, nice try. 

The word straight from Canon execs, the people who _definitely_ have some clue about business, economics, and marketing, proves you wrong. 

These are also the same folks who have infallible marketshare year after year, which- for you- trumps any other concerns about their product lineup.

So again, welcome back to reality. 

Enjoy.


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## neuroanatomist (Aug 20, 2018)

transpo1 said:


> Haha. You'd like to think you have a clue, don't you? In actuality, though- things are different.
> 
> As you know (or at least, as you should know if you read it), Canon execs have admitted in recent statements and interviews that they need to risk cannibalization now by including features like 4K, etc.
> 
> ...



Nikkei _quotes the president of Canon Marketing Japan, Masahiro Sakata, who identified mirrorless as a 'growth market' that Canon needed to invest in: "[We must] actively roll out products for a growth market even if there is some cannibalization."_

I read that several times, and I don't see anything about features like 4K. Just the big picture stuff that matters. Maybe my myopia helps me read better.


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## transpo1 (Aug 21, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Nikkei _quotes the president of Canon Marketing Japan, Masahiro Sakata, who identified mirrorless as a 'growth market' that Canon needed to invest in: "[We must] actively roll out products for a growth market even if there is some cannibalization."_
> 
> I read that several times, and I don't see anything about features like 4K. Just the big picture stuff that matters. Maybe my myopia helps me read better.



Which Sakata said right before releasing _"the company’s first 4K-capable mirrorless camera." _

And in case you don't believe that correlation:

_"Craig from Canon Rumors tells PetaPixel that the M50 is indeed the camera Sakata is referring to."_

And for those who don't believe Canon sees Sony as a threat and who also don't believe Canon was afraid of cannibalization, I give you this:

_"With mirrorless cameras rapidly gaining popularity and rivals like Sony breaking into SLRs, Canon decided it must 'actively roll out products for a growth market even if there is some cannibalization,' Sakata said."_

So, no, I don't think your myopia does help with the reading.


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## imagiro (Aug 23, 2018)

I have to applaud the Canon model - bringing affordable & excellent photographic devices to everyone. I was in for the M5 but kind of expensive for me then, and now got my M50 last July. I have been looking at the amazon best seller, and you can see the sony a6000 & a5000 are the only ones selling for sony, and M50 is up there sometimes #1.


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## Don Haines (Aug 23, 2018)

Oh for crying out loud..... All cameras involve some canibalization of other models....


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## takesome1 (Aug 23, 2018)

Don Haines said:


> Oh for crying out loud..... All cameras involve some canibalization of other models....


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