# The upcomming Dead of EOS DSLR / EF-line



## MartinF. (Sep 5, 2018)

With the launch of EOS R and the RF mount, my prediction will be, that we will see no more new Canon DSLR's except from maybe a new 5D and a new 1D meant for professionals. 

The replacement for 80D, 7D and 6D series will be RF mount bodies - or maybe just one in-between Prosumer DSLR with EF mount as a cash-cow and a retension option for existing EF lense owners.
The Rebel / Kiss / XXXD / XXXXD series will be minimized to a few also as cash-cows.

Professionals change camerabodies much more often than prosumers. As soon as Canon has a 24-70 f/2.8 a 70-200 f/4, a 300 and a 400 a lot of the mediabusiness reportage photographers and probably other profs' as well will ship to the R-series / RF-mount line.
I guess Canon in less than a year from now (as soon a the have one or two pro "R-bodies" will come with some very good offerings for the large medias and agencies to change a large EF lens collection into RF lenses.


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## Aussie shooter (Sep 5, 2018)

7d line won't go mirrorless yet. Mirrorless simply can't meet the needs and requirements of Wildlife shooters.


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## Maximilian (Sep 5, 2018)

I suppose that your prediction would be more correct and realistic if you stretch it over several years in the time line.
Even Canon has not the R&D and production power to swap all that within such a short time, although several products are surely in the pipeline.
Your time line is way too short.

And to me there is no clue yet how Canon wants to go on with the prosumer APS-C systems. Not everybody wants FF but wants high performance APS-C tools and optics (or FF optics to use with APS-C).

It isn't clear yet how good the EVFs are and if sports, action and wildlife photogs are willing to change so fast - even if an EOS Rxy body with fps > 10/s would be available.
And real pros won't go with a single card slot body. Too much risk of data loss.

So keep calm, go out, take wonderful pictures and wait on how and how fast Canon will proceed.


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 5, 2018)

MartinF. said:


> With the launch of EOS R and the RF mount, my prediction will be, that we will see no more new Canon DSLR's except from maybe a new 5D and a new 1D meant for professionals.
> 
> The replacement for 80D, 7D and 6D series will be RF mount bodies - or maybe just one in-between Prosumer DSLR with EF mount as a cash-cow and a retension option for existing EF lense owners.


Sure. I mean, it's not like DLSRs comprise the majority of the ILC market. Oh, wait...


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## moreorless (Sep 5, 2018)

I think the only line potentially under threat in the short term might be the 6D but even that seems a little unlikely to me.

In reality I think even if mirrorless does come to dominate the camera market your talking several upgrade cycles away.


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## MartinF. (Sep 5, 2018)

Maximilian said:


> I suppose that your prediction would be more correct and realistic if you stretch it over several years in the time line.
> Even Canon has not the R&D and production power to swap all that within such a short time, although several products are surely in the pipeline.
> Your time line is way too short.
> 
> ...


Sure I will keep calm at take pictures with my 6D.
About timeline: My quess is one more iteration of 1D and 5D series - that will be 3 - 5 years from now.
Personally I don't think we will se more prosumer 80D - 7D DSLRs. My guess is that it will be an R-series - the one we saw today maybe - even that it is not so much for sports as the 7D mkII

But sure - lets take some pictures with the equipment we got. I is as good today and tomorrow as it was yesterday.


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## Don Haines (Sep 5, 2018)

So Canon came out with the M, and the Rebel lines continued..... They are different cameras for a different set of users, with a bit of overlap for those who have both.... They are two different markets, Canon does not have to choose between being in one or the other, they are in both.....

So now we have a FullFrame M..... what is different? There is a market for both, with a bit of overlap, and rather than choosing to be in one market or the other, Canon has chosen to be both...


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## sdz (Sep 6, 2018)

In the long run, everything dies.


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Sep 6, 2018)

Its the photographers who will determine the future, Canon and all the others will make what sells. If sales of DSLR's drop below a certain point while Mirrorless cameras do well, then that will determine the future. Notice that Canon has yet to release a pro level body, they are likely hoping to learn from the R body and lenses before introducing the higher end model.

As for APS-C, the M bodies may be it for now as far as mirrorless. We will certainly see more DSLR's in the years to come, the new ones are certainly designed and in the pipeline already.


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## jpcanon (Sep 6, 2018)

And photographers, even at their core ... will still fall victim to their innermost demons... im talking about pixel popping and the inevitable MTF charts.

EF is dead. Those who do not learn from history are ******* to repeat it. Its the same story, so predictable, so Japanese. lol

3-5 more years probably of steadily declining EF lens releases or projects moved over now to RF.

Canon said it themselves; do I need to repost the white paper? LOL its TEXTBOOK classic business communications for: "heres why were screwing our customers, will be forcing you into new purchases into the future and why you will like it.


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## Don Haines (Sep 6, 2018)

jpcanon said:


> And photographers, even at their core ... will still fall victim to their innermost demons... im talking about pixel popping and the inevitable MTF charts.
> 
> EF is dead. Those who do not learn from history are ******* to repeat it. Its the same story, so predictable, so Japanese. lol
> 
> ...


And how many RF lenses have been launched in the last year, and how many EF lenses? Why is it so hard to see that it is not either A or B, but that Canon wishes to sell A and B?


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Sep 6, 2018)

Don Haines said:


> And how many RF lenses have been launched in the last year, and how many EF lenses? Why is it so hard to see that it is not either A or B, but that Canon wishes to sell A and B?



When you read the Canon white paper, its pretty evident that they believe that the RF lenses are superior to EF, and hope that they catch on. I certainly expect to see several more RF lenses come out next year, apparently, they are telling the reviewers at DPR to expect more next year. Just the fact that they are putting out lenses in the $2K - $3K price range tells me that a higher level camera or cameras are on the way, and possibly some RF big white lenses that will be announced when they introduce a top of the line mirrorless. 

It all depends on sales volumes.


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## Maximilian (Sep 6, 2018)

MartinF. said:


> Sure I will keep calm at take pictures with my 6D.
> About timeline: My quess is one more iteration of 1D and 5D series - that will be 3 - 5 years from now.
> Personally I don't think we will se more prosumer 80D - 7D DSLRs. My guess is that it will be an R-series - the one we saw today maybe - even that it is not so much for sports as the 7D mkII


I am with you that there will be one more generation of the 5D and 1D series - at least.
So if we talk about one generation and even if this one is introduced in 2019 they'll stay for another 4 - 6 years.
And when Canon is deciding to let the classical EOS system die then they would make at least one body like they did with the EOS-1V in analog times that will be sold and serviced for another few years.

As for the prosumer APS-C market:
I don't see a Canon prosumer MILC so soon on the horizon. If I were Canon I would start to build up my RF FF system up to that point where all pros/prosumers that want/need FF would be going into that system. Meaning there should be a high MP 5DS/r successor and a 1DX equivalent first, maybe also a 5D4 equivalent, which will take some 2 to 4 years in release time IMO. And don't forget new lenses to be released, too.
During this time Canon won't be able to compete with the aging 7D2 against Nikons APS-C prosumer cameras.
Conclusion: there will also be a 7D3.

As for a 90D, maybe you are right here that there'll be no successor and Canon would lead customers here to the 7D3 (or the EOS M5 Mk2).

And for the consumer DSLRs:
As long as there are pro and prosumer DSLRs Canon will not drop this big market, as sales seems to be still quite good.
Of course maybe reduction in the number of models, maybe longer life cycles or so, surely no more great EF-S lenses but a longer life than you expect.

So my prediction: at least 10 more years of EOS/EF FF products, maybe a few less for EOS APS-C.


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## bbb34 (Sep 6, 2018)

As Don said, Canon will sell EF products as long as there is significant demand.

The EOS-1v (film) was produced and sold until 2008. (1D mk 3 and 5D mk 2 were in the 2008 portfolio).


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## fullstop (Sep 6, 2018)

well, let's play: which of the following future Canon EOS mirrorslapper models do you think we'll still see ... ?






My expectation is:





*Slappy End* is near.


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## Maximilian (Sep 6, 2018)

fullstop said:


> well, let's play: which of the following future Canon EOS mirrorslapper models do you think we'll still see ... ?


IMO you can also cancel the 5DS/R II. If I were Canon this would be my next EOS R, let's call it EOS RS.
Reasons: Aimed on Studio and Landscape. With dual slot and high enough frame rate at wedding/event, too. So EVF is no disadvantage over OVF.
And why develop two cameras aiming at the same market segment.
I also don't think that we'll see a 6D III. But maybe a 7D IV.
And for sure a "1D-X F" (=Final implementation) after the IV. Maybe even a 5D F as well, as it is a different market segment.

By the way: I don't know about an EOS *9*00D. I suppose a typo and that you mean 800D. Maybe add the US name for it here as well.


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## BeenThere (Sep 6, 2018)

fullstop said:


> well, let's play: which of the following future Canon EOS mirrorslapper models do you think we'll still see ... ?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I guess I would delete the bottom half of your expectation list, (below 7d3) and 6d3 but you may have it right. I think Canon wants the bottom of this list in the M camera. They will need to follow demand.


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## 3kramd5 (Sep 6, 2018)

Maximilian said:


> let's call it EOS RS.



Would the non-LPF version be the EOS RSR?


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## Maximilian (Sep 6, 2018)

3kramd5 said:


> Would the non-LPF version be the EOS RSR?


Agreed. But if they follow Nikon here and don't deliver an High MP+AA camera anymore but only without AA I'd go for the classical naming according to the 1Ds (No matter if big or small letters but without the extra R).


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## takesome1 (Sep 6, 2018)

Yes the sky is falling.
It is only Rain.


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## scyrene (Sep 6, 2018)

Don Haines said:


> So Canon came out with the M, and the Rebel lines continued..... They are different cameras for a different set of users, with a bit of overlap for those who have both.... They are two different markets, Canon does not have to choose between being in one or the other, they are in both.....
> 
> So now we have a FullFrame M..... what is different? There is a market for both, with a bit of overlap, and rather than choosing to be in one market or the other, Canon has chosen to be both...



THIS!


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## takesome1 (Sep 6, 2018)

Don Haines said:


> So Canon came out with the M, and the Rebel lines continued..... They are different cameras for a different set of users, with a bit of overlap for those who have both.... They are two different markets, Canon does not have to choose between being in one or the other, they are in both.....
> 
> So now we have a FullFrame M..... what is different? There is a market for both, with a bit of overlap, and rather than choosing to be in one market or the other, Canon has chosen to be both...



We got rid of the wife's rebel and bought her an M. Lighter, smaller and the IQ is better than her Rebel.
I am sure that Canon will offer some enticing lenses so that I will be compelled to change my landscape and walk around body for an R.
The migration seems to be headed that way.

At some point in the future Canon will choose to not be in all four markets, and this will be when it is not profitable.
It will not be this decade.


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## fullstop (Sep 6, 2018)

takesome1 said:


> It will not be this decade.



Hehe, if you mean the decade 2010-2019 ... I agree. I you mean 2018-2027 or 2020 to 2019 ... then LOL. 


btw: quite possibly the "final" new EF-S lens has already been launched.


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## fullstop (Sep 6, 2018)

Maximilian said:


> By the way: I don't know about an EOS *9*00D. I suppose a typo and that you mean 800D.


yes, thx. Typo. should read
current: 800D -> gen+1 = "900D" -> gen +2 = won't happen.


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## docsmith (Sep 6, 2018)

Actually, Fullstop's guide isn't that bad. It wouldn't surprise me if there is a consolidation that isn't captured, such as a merging of the 5D/6D line or getting the Rebel line down to 1-3 bodies. In otherwords, fewer bodies going forward after the "Gen +1" but not "fade to black"...

But this is like predicting we are all going to die. It is true, we will all die...but hopefully not anytime soon.

Let's wait for some reviews. Let's wait to see gradations of the R (R1, R5, etc) and about 20-30 RF lenses.

Oh, and let's really wait to see a R camera body that is actually better than my 5DIV in terms of AF speed, FPS, weather sealing, etc.


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## takesome1 (Sep 6, 2018)

fullstop said:


> Hehe, if you mean the decade 2010-2019 ... I agree. I you mean 2018-2027 or 2020 to 2019 ... then LOL.
> 
> 
> btw: quite possibly the "final" new EF-S lens has already been launched.




I will let you know in 2027 which I mean.

I do not agree, even if Canon believes the EF-S lens line is coming to an end they can put out minor changes just to entice the last few buyers.
If they see a way that capitalizes on a dying market they will take it.


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## fullstop (Sep 6, 2018)

ok, slightly adjusted version of my expectations.


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## unfocused (Sep 6, 2018)

fullstop said:


> ok, slightly adjusted version of my expectations...



You might be fairly close in your predictions, although I think you might be wrong about the SL-2. I think that line has more potential than most of the other Rebels. After another generation of the major lines (5D, 7D, 1Dx) Mirrorless technology may have improved sufficiently to match the quality of these bodies, at that point, they will probably transition to models that look and behave very much like the existing DSLRs, but don't have a mirror.

The big question will be how Canon handles the lens transition (if there is one). If the new lenses can be seamlessly adapted to fit existing DSLRs and the adapters for EF lenses work flawlessly then Canon can gradually stop releasing new versions of EF lenses and no one will really care.


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## ajfotofilmagem (Sep 6, 2018)

Why not, just REMOVE THE MIRROR THAT IS IN THE REBEL CAMERAS?
Thus, we will have camera with low cost of manufacturing (no moving parts), for soccer moms to take photos and videos with a camera that looks "professional".


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## Ozarker (Sep 6, 2018)

jpcanon said:


> TEXTBOOK classic business communications for: "heres why were screwing our customers, will be forcing you into new purchases into the future and why you will like it.



That's an odd opinion. I don't think creating a new line and saying they are doing it for greater freedom in lens design and to utilize new tech is screwing customers. Who's been screwed? I have what I have and it still works fine. I don't believe adding an adapter (12mm thicknes? Not sure) will impact image quality or performance. That distance is already there with a DSLR. So where is the screwing taking place?

Lots of people have to take a terribly negative line of thinking. I don't believe anyone gets screwed here except the people who choose to believe they are being screwed... which, come to think of it, might actually just be wishful thinking. Maybe not negative after all! Just hopeful! 

BTW: Nobody is "forced" into buying anything. My 70-200 is 5 years old. It still works fine. I won't be "forced" to buy new for many years to come. Same with my camera body. Even then, it won't be "forced".


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## Ozarker (Sep 6, 2018)

Mt Spokane Photography said:


> When you read the Canon white paper, its pretty evident that they believe that the RF lenses are superior to EF, and hope that they catch on. I certainly expect to see several more RF lenses come out next year, apparently, they are telling the reviewers at DPR to expect more next year. Just the fact that they are putting out lenses in the $2K - $3K price range tells me that a higher level camera or cameras are on the way, and possibly some RF big white lenses that will be announced when they introduce a top of the line mirrorless.
> 
> It all depends on sales volumes.



With all the gear-heads and MTF chart readers around here, I expect the RF line of lenses will be a cause for celebration. People seem to be constantly selling previous versions of gear and buying the latest. I don't think this whole thing will be as painful as some people think. I don't think it will be painful at all for the serial up graders. Just a new adventure!

I don't believe I will be moving to RF anytime soon, but I am happy for those who want it. I think this is all very exciting.

I'm with you, I think a high end version is coming and can't wait to see it, but what I have is still far better than I am.


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## Maximilian (Sep 6, 2018)

unfocused said:


> you might be wrong about the SL-2. I think that line has more potential than most of the other Rebels.


Yeah! Gimme that body with a 800D/T7i or better AF, maybe some fps more, make it cost 50 to 100 bucks more and I'm in at once (as second/travel body)


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## Kit Lens Jockey (Sep 6, 2018)

I started a thread about this over in the lens forum with my full thoughts on it. But I've suddenly realized, for lenses that do not benefit from the shorter flange distance of the RF mount, like pretty much any telephoto lens, you have to ask yourself, what does Canon even gain by moving them over to the RF mount, aside from pissing off DSLR owners?

The mount diameter is no bigger, there are a couple extra electrical contacts (big deal.)

Honestly, I forsee Canon continuing to make EF lenses for the foreseeable future, unless it's a lens that could benefit from the shorter flange distance, in which case they'll make it an RF and take advantage of that.

After all, you just toss an adapter on the back of any EF lens, and viola, it's now an RF lens. So why even bother changing the mount on a lens that doesn't get an optical benefit from doing so. People will complain that you need an adapter, but I suspect that this might be a lot smaller of an issue for Canon than it seems to be for us because they know that the adapter will work flawlessly and it's not just some iffy, stopgap solution the way that Canon to Sony adapters are.


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## fullstop (Sep 6, 2018)

Kit Lens Jockey said:


> I started a thread about this over in the lens forum with my full thoughts on it. But I've suddenly realized, for lenses that do not benefit from the shorter flange distance of the RF mount, like pretty much any telephoto lens, you have to ask yourself, what does Canon even gain by moving them over to the RF mount, aside from pissing off DSLR owners?
> 
> The mount diameter is no bigger, there are a couple extra electrical contacts (big deal.)
> ...
> After all, you just toss an adapter on the back of any EF lens, and viola, it's now an RF lens. So why even bother changing the mount on a lens that doesn't get an optical benefit from doing so.



no, no, no. 

there is a good reason for those extra contact pins and (gyro-) sensors and ASICs and firmware In RF lenses. and Canon will make good use of them. it gives RF lenses capabilities way beyond EF lenses. Some come immediately to bear - eg the enhanced IS performance, others may only be implemented later on. 

yes, EF glass will work fine with the RF adapters, but it is "legacy" on EOS R and will never be equal to native RF lenses.


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## fullstop (Sep 6, 2018)

Maximilian said:


> Yeah! Gimme that body with a 800D/T7i or better AF, maybe some fps more, make it cost 50 to 100 bucks more and I'm in at once (as second/travel body)



EOS M5 II will fully replace and eclipse SL Rebel line. much higher capabilities in a smaller package.


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## dtaylor (Sep 6, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Sure. I mean, it's not like DLSRs comprise the majority of the ILC market. Oh, wait...



Exactly. Mirrorless hype is driven in part by the fact that people don't bother to look at CIPA sales data. DSLRs out sell MILCs by a very wide margin.

I'm curious to see the impact of all the new MILC bodies being announced. But my guess is that we are still many years away from "the end of the DSLR", and in fact still years away from majority MILC sales globally.

As for me, Canon could have sold me an R if they had just included decent video specs. An R with solid video could have filled the roll of backup stills camera AND video camera using my Canon glass and offering me familiar ergonomics, color science, etc. 

Take away the video and I'm left scratching my head as to why I should care about mirrorless. I'll just get another DSLR for backup stills.


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## dtaylor (Sep 6, 2018)

Maximilian said:


> So EVF is no disadvantage over OVF.



EVFs still visually suck compared to OVF.


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## dak723 (Sep 6, 2018)

dtaylor said:


> EVFs still visually suck compared to OVF.



In your opinion. Which is not shared by those who enjoy the WYSIWYG nature of EVFs. In fact, the only reason I now own mirrorless instead of DSLRs is the WYSIWYG ability of the EVF. Don't care about focus peaking, or more FPS, or silent shutter or any of the other things mirrorless may bring. Not saying EVFs are perfect - in some sunny conditions they are much harder to use than an OVF - but like most things, there are pluses and minuses.


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## jeanluc (Sep 6, 2018)

Actually I think a lot of us enthusiasts change gear more than many pros...pro means you make a living with your camera, and the pros I know often keep using older (not ancient) gear longer than I do because it works well, causes no problems and still makes then money...you still see a lot of 5d3 and even 5d2’s shooting weddings.


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## dtaylor (Sep 6, 2018)

dak723 said:


> In your opinion. Which is not shared by those who enjoy the WYSIWYG nature of EVFs.



The only way in which they are more WYSIWYG than OVF is exposure preview. I was very impressed with this back when my DSLR was a 7D. The 7D's meter was always a bit erratic which led to chimping and reshooting with EV comp. So my first few sessions with a mirrorless impressed me in that respect. It's very natural to work in full manual exposure and just turn a dial to set exposure with a live preview.

The 5Ds meter is uncanny in its accuracy and stability. I imagine any Canon DSLR with a newer mini-image-sensor meter is the same. That renders exposure preview almost inconsequential to me. Take that way and it's hard to beat reality, i.e. light bouncing off a mirror.

I'm not saying EVFs are unusable, nor am I saying that they will never match OVF for sheer IQ. But they have a ways to go yet.


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## Maximilian (Sep 6, 2018)

fullstop said:


> EOS M5 II will fully replace and eclipse SL Rebel line. much higher capabilities in a smaller package.


And at much higher price! 
And until now I am not convinced to change to EVF.
It will take another few years until I am pleased with EVF - maybe the new Canon R already does. M5 (Mk I) didn't.


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## Maximilian (Sep 6, 2018)

dtaylor said:


> EVFs still visually suck compared to OVF.


But for studio, stills and landscape it is okay. 
That's what I've meant. I suppose you can agree here.
Personally I am into action, animal, sports and for me until now EVF does not work.


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## Graphic.Artifacts (Sep 6, 2018)

As much as I think the R mount shows promise, Canon have not yet demonstrated that they can make a mirrorless camera that can perform at a level similar to their DSLR's. That may be by choice but I suspect it is entirely possible that they just don't have the capability to do so at this time.

The primary roadblock at this time appears to be processing power. It doesn't look as though any of Canon's current processors can keep up with the demands of advanced mirrorless. They really have to start making progress in this area or they are going to be falling further behind not catching up. When you look at what the latest offering from Panasonic, Sony and Fuji can do with their onboard processing you can see pretty quickly that Canon and Nikon aren't really playing in the same sandbox. I think this is an area where their late start is holding them back. Yes, they've done well with the M series but the bar was pretty low and most users relatively forgiving on their performance. . Convincing a current 5DIV user to trade in for a laggy camera with 5D classic frame rates is going to be a challenge. Let alone 1 series users.

My guess is that they will sell a bunch of these to V-Loggers, MLC curious and possibly up-graders from the M and rebel lines but I think most daily DSLR users will choke on the lower responsiveness. Given how infrequently Canon upgrades bodies I'd say it will be a while before the R's feel competitive with the DSLR's. Even Canon appears to be selling the system as an add-on rather than a replacement. I think it's the most interesting thing Canon has done since Cinema EOS but I wouldn't expect to see significant adoption overnight.


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## unfocused (Sep 6, 2018)

Graphic.Artifacts said:


> As much as I think the R mount shows promise, Canon have not yet demonstrated that they can make a mirrorless camera that can perform at a level similar to their DSLR's. That may be by choice but I suspect it is entirely possible that they just don't have the capability to do so at this time...
> 
> ...I think most daily DSLR users will choke on the lower responsiveness. Given how infrequently Canon upgrades bodies I'd say it will be a while before the R's feel competitive with the DSLR's. Even Canon appears to be selling the system as an add-on rather than a replacement. I think it's the most interesting thing Canon has done since Cinema EOS but I wouldn't expect to see significant adoption overnight.



Yes. If the "R" system does eventually replace the DSLR, it will happen only when that replacement offers no compromises from the DSLR-EF system. How long that takes will depend totally on Canon and on consumer demand. At this point I don't think anyone can accurately predict if mirrorless full frame will remain just a niche within a niche or if it will eventually supplant DSLRs. 

But, I believe it won't be enough to have adapters that allow "R" cameras to mount EF lenses. They will have to make adapters that allow DSLRs to mount "R" lenses. When the 1DxIII, 5DV and 7DIII are released, buyers will need the assurance that they can mount their "R" lenses on these new bodies, just as "R" buyers can mount EF lenses on their mirrorless bodies.


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## fullstop (Sep 6, 2018)

unfocused said:


> if mirrorless full frame will remain just a niche within a niche or if it will eventually supplant DSLRs.



it will. Totally supplant. All mirrorslapping. No crystal-ball reading needed for this.


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## Don Haines (Sep 6, 2018)

CanonFanBoy said:


> That's an odd opinion. I don't think creating a new line and saying they are doing it for greater freedom in lens design and to utilize new tech is screwing customers. Who's been screwed? I have what I have and it still works fine. I don't believe adding an adapter (12mm thicknes? Not sure) will impact image quality or performance. That distance is already there with a DSLR. So where is the screwing taking place?
> 
> Lots of people have to take a terribly negative line of thinking. I don't believe anyone gets screwed here except the people who choose to believe they are being screwed... which, come to think of it, might actually just be wishful thinking. Maybe not negative after all! Just hopeful!
> 
> BTW: Nobody is "forced" into buying anything. My 70-200 is 5 years old. It still works fine. I won't be "forced" to buy new for many years to come. Same with my camera body. Even then, it won't be "forced".




Actually, Canon went out of their way to make sure that existing EF lens holders would not get screwed.

Optically, there is no practical difference between an EF lens mounted of an EF camera and the same lens mounted on an R camera through an adapter, except with that adapter you can add an extra control ring (just like on the R lenses), or, you can get the other adapter and slide in a rear mounted filter...... a capacity that the R lenses do not have!

What the R mount brought to the table is faster communications between camera and lens, which translates into better IS..... It does not make your existing lens worse on a R camera, the IS performance should remain the same...... what it does mean is that NEW lenses can be even better!


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## dtaylor (Sep 7, 2018)

fullstop said:


> it will. Totally supplant. All mirrorslapping. No crystal-ball reading needed for this.



EVFs have to improve. So does target acquisition and tracking. (Not AI subject identification tracking. Mirrorless is ahead there. Just plain, brutal, subject under AF point is fast approaching tracking.)

Again, MILC sales aren't even close to DSLR sales. And the initial rapid growth leveled off a while back. People predicting the imminent death of 'mirror slappers' never seem to look at what the consumer is actually buying.

We will see if these new bodies cause a major shift in CIPA stats. But I doubt it.


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## Ozarker (Sep 7, 2018)

unfocused said:


> Yes. If the "R" system does eventually replace the DSLR, it will happen only when that replacement offers no compromises from the DSLR-EF system. How long that takes will depend totally on Canon and on consumer demand. At this point I don't think anyone can accurately predict if mirrorless full frame will remain just a niche within a niche or if it will eventually supplant DSLRs.
> 
> But, I believe it won't be enough to have adapters that allow "R" cameras to mount EF lenses. They will have to make adapters that allow DSLRs to mount "R" lenses. When the 1DxIII, 5DV and 7DIII are released, buyers will need the assurance that they can mount their "R" lenses on these new bodies, just as "R" buyers can mount EF lenses on their mirrorless bodies.



I don't believe there will ever be an RF to EF mount. Can't take away that added flange distance the adapter would give in that case. Can't take away the extra flange distance in camera either. Well, somebody may come up with a speed booster that adds more glass, but not Canon.


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## fullstop (Sep 7, 2018)

dtaylor said:


> We will see if these new bodies cause a major shift in CIPA stats. But I doubt it.



http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201807_e.pdf

lookat the CIPA numbers. DSLRs in continued decline, Mirrorfree ILC shipments for Jan-july 2018 now already at 37% globally (in units) and 43% (in yen value).

"production" numbers show a lot more mirrorfree cameras produced than shipments = these cameras are hitting markets now.

depending on availability of new mirrorfree FF ILCs (abd lenses) from Canon, Nikon, Panasonic, Sony i expect parity in shipments around mid 2019, at he latest for full-year 2019.

from there on transition will further accelerate and progress fast.

also look at my table with my expectations for future upgrades to Canon DSLRs yet to come. it does not really extend beyond another 2-3 years, except 1DX (mainly for "nostalgic reasons", just like a film 1D camera was kept around for many years).


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## moreorless (Sep 7, 2018)

Graphic.Artifacts said:


> As much as I think the R mount shows promise, Canon have not yet demonstrated that they can make a mirrorless camera that can perform at a level similar to their DSLR's. That may be by choice but I suspect it is entirely possible that they just don't have the capability to do so at this time.
> 
> The primary roadblock at this time appears to be processing power. It doesn't look as though any of Canon's current processors can keep up with the demands of advanced mirrorless. They really have to start making progress in this area or they are going to be falling further behind not catching up. When you look at what the latest offering from Panasonic, Sony and Fuji can do with their onboard processing you can see pretty quickly that Canon and Nikon aren't really playing in the same sandbox. I think this is an area where their late start is holding them back. Yes, they've done well with the M series but the bar was pretty low and most users relatively forgiving on their performance. . Convincing a current 5DIV user to trade in for a laggy camera with 5D classic frame rates is going to be a challenge. Let alone 1 series users.
> 
> My guess is that they will sell a bunch of these to V-Loggers, MLC curious and possibly up-graders from the M and rebel lines but I think most daily DSLR users will choke on the lower responsiveness. Given how infrequently Canon upgrades bodies I'd say it will be a while before the R's feel competitive with the DSLR's. Even Canon appears to be selling the system as an add-on rather than a replacement. I think it's the most interesting thing Canon has done since Cinema EOS but I wouldn't expect to see significant adoption overnight.



Honestly what I'm seeing from Canon and especially Nikon seems like the opposite, there really not very far if at all behind Sony and indeed their EVF implementation is being talked up as superior to Sony that doesn't offer full resolution when shooting, only in playback.


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## dtaylor (Sep 8, 2018)

fullstop said:


> lookat the CIPA numbers. DSLRs in continued decline, Mirrorfree ILC shipments for Jan-july 2018 now already at 37% globally (in units) and 43% (in yen value).



So MILCs gained 1.48% marketshare year-over-year for the sales period of Jan-Jul. (It was 64.32% vs. 35.68% in the same period 2017.) And that's with a year that has been heavy on new MILC bodies but light on new DSLRs.

*OH NO! DSLRS ARE IN FREE FALL! THE END IS NEAR!* At this rate it will *only take 42 years for MILCs to push DSLRs from the ILC market.*



> depending on availability of new mirrorfree FF ILCs (abd lenses) from Canon, Nikon, Panasonic, Sony i expect parity in shipments around mid 2019, at he latest for full-year 2019.



If this rate were to hold then *MILCs wouldn't achieve parity until 2035.*

Note that I am *not* making these predictions. I'm just pointing out how your rhetoric does not match the numbers you quoted. And how slim the shifts have been towards MILCs recently.

My very rough prediction is that we are still years away from MILC sales parity, and more years after that from the last production DSLR. A couple new FF MILCs from Canon and Nikon will not dramatically change this. Not when the majority of sales are in crop. And not with those feature/price points.

At the end of 2019 DSLRs will still represent the majority of ILC shipments absent an Earth shattering advancement on features/price. What would be "Earth shattering"? Imagine if the EOS R was 50mp FF with DPAF, 16ev DR, 20 fps, FF 4k/60, and sold for $999 with EF adapter. Oh, and the AF system beat a 1DX II in all respects, plus it was water resistant to 10m.

Not happening.


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## fullstop (Sep 8, 2018)

well, brace for impact. 2019 will be the year when tables will be flipped on slapping mirrors.


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## fullstop (Sep 8, 2018)

brw. while we are CIPA stats: have a look at the interchangeable lens table as well, especially the ratios "lenses 135 format and up" vs. "crop lenses" - in units and more so in value.

and think about why we (soon) have 5 suppliers instead of inly 1 offering new "FF" lens mounts and new native lenses. a lot of customers abd money just waiting to be milked with RF, Z, FE lenses - at 2k, 3k, 5k a pop. 

transition will happen very fast as all makers will be pumping out new L (uxury) and GM (great moneymaker) lenses for their mirrorfree mounts.


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## Keith_Reeder (Sep 8, 2018)

CanonFanBoy said:


> BTW: Nobody is "forced" into buying anything. My 70-200 is 5 years old. It still works fine. I won't be "forced" to buy new for many years to come. Same with my camera body. Even then, it won't be "forced".



What? Canon didn't come to your door in the dead of night and threaten to shoot your dog if you didn't upgrade?

Happens to JPCanon all the time, apparently...


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## Keith_Reeder (Sep 8, 2018)

Maximilian said:


> But for studio, stills and landscape it is okay..



So they're currently the Mark Knopfler of the viewfinder world - very good at being limited and mediocre...


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## scipion (Sep 8, 2018)

MartinF. said:


> With the launch of EOS R and the RF mount, my prediction will be, that we will see no more new Canon DSLR's except from maybe a new 5D and a new 1D meant for professionals.



I just killed a goat and read his entrails, and it predicts the contrary

well I have still to understand why this particular new body will do that, knowing that Sony's offer is around since years and a majority of us did not choose it.
I do a lot of sport and wild life photos, I am not interested. I tried and did not like it, at least over my reflex cameras. Excellent technology for sure, but well this was my decision, and the one of many of us since now...
In addition Sony's products are better. So why I would buy this one?! Because this is Canon and there is the same battery that I use in my 7D and 5D? Well this is rather thin...

I am evidently certain they will be a marked for this new product, that is for sure. It will appeal to the same that bought Sony. Also you have to keep in mind the price factor.
As far as I understand, Canon market strategy is to occupy all segments, and segment his offer within. that is what they are doing now, business as usual.
so letting down a segment in which Canon is the true master would be a rather strange decision.


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## BillB (Sep 8, 2018)

fullstop said:


> well, let's play: which of the following future Canon EOS mirrorslapper models do you think we'll still see ... ?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Part of the puzzle is what DSLR production Nikon will have down the road. There may be room for one DSLR manufacturer for longer than there is for two, but that would be more about keeping production going than it would be about introducing new models.


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## Kit. (Sep 8, 2018)

Keith_Reeder said:


> So they're currently the Mark Knopfler of the viewfinder world - very good at being limited and mediocre...


I wish I could do something as "limited and mediocre" as "Telegraph Road".


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 8, 2018)

fullstop said:


> well, brace for impact. 2019 will be the year when tables will be flipped on slapping mirrors.


Yeah. Just like in 2014. Then in 2015. Then in...well, you get the idea (hopefully).


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## MartinF. (Sep 8, 2018)

scipion said:


> I just killed a goat and read his entrails, and it predicts the contrary
> 
> well I have still to understand why this particular new body will do that, knowing that Sony's offer is around since years and a majority of us did not choose it.
> I do a lot of sport and wild life photos, I am not interested. I tried and did not like it, at least over my reflex cameras. Excellent technology for sure, but well this was my decision, and the one of many of us since now...
> ...



Don't misunderstand me, I sure hope you are right. I love SLR /DSLR. I love the OVF. I love the look and feel of a DSLR. I am not a Mirrorless fanboy. Not at all.
But even as I understand from at technology viewpoint that Canon evented a new mount, I am so much disappointed about it.

In 1987 with the release of the new EOS system an EF mount Canon released 14(!) new EOS bodies in 5 year and only 1 new body with the old FD mount (in 1990).
They released 13(!) new EF lenses in the first year (1987) - and that was the end of the FD mount. (and the future for my little FD collection of lenses):
Will it go as fast this time. I don't know. I do not hope so. I love my 6D, 1D and retired 400D. I love my EF lenses. But Canon can move fast if they want to.
The release of new EF lenses show some commitment to the EOS/EF system - but time will show. If we see a new 7D mkIII and a new 90D next year, and a 5DmkV in a few years - then the system will probably live as long as customers buy them.


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## dtaylor (Sep 8, 2018)

MartinF. said:


> In 1987...



That's not comparable. Canon was in a different position, both in terms of technology and marketshare, and had to move fast to a new mount. The FD mount AF T-80 proved to the engineers that in-lens AF motors were the future. But it also clearly proved that the FD mount wasn't viable with AF. With Nikon and especially Minolta moving aggressively on AF (in body motors) Canon had to do something radical.

Today? Canon is the market leader and the EF mount remains one of the best out there. Mirrorless is a valid market but hyped way, way out of proportion to its sales. The market feels, as you do, that OVF and DSLR ergonomics are still better. Someday that will no longer be true. But not so soon that Canon has to make a radical shift.


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## Ozarker (Sep 9, 2018)

Keith_Reeder said:


> What? Canon didn't come to your door in the dead of night and threaten to shoot your dog if you didn't upgrade?
> 
> Happens to JPCanon all the time, apparently...



Hahahaha These people are nuts. Canon made sure those with EF lenses could still keep using them, and somehow they believe they are screwed. Nuts.


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## takesome1 (Sep 9, 2018)

CanonFanBoy said:


> Hahahaha These people are nuts. Canon made sure those with EF lenses could still keep using them, and somehow they believe they are screwed. Nuts.



You shouldn't be naive about the future of EF lenses.

Canon's main goal is to figure out how to convince you that you need to upgrade to a new body and lens.
The adapter for the EF lens to mount to R is nothing more than a free test sample to get you hooked on their next drug offering.
Once hooked you will be buying RF lenses in their pure form.


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## fullstop (Sep 9, 2018)

this transition is totally different from 1987 switch from manual FD lenses to electr(on)ic EF lenses with longer flange focal distance. no simple adapters possible for FD to EF mount. hard break and heart break for FD users. 

In 2018 RF lenses have shorter FFD. no manual stuff involved. simple adapters for EF lenses possible and available. EF users can continue using EF glass. Canon will focus to launch new FF cameras and lenses in RF mount with enhanced functionality and capabilities. From AF to IS to future "AI driven" imaging features. 

users can decide on their own timeframe when & how they want zo transition from EF to RF. no big deal.


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## Del Paso (Sep 9, 2018)

dtaylor said:


> EVFs still visually suck compared to OVF.


Especially if you keep waiting, minutes or hours, for your subject to appear in the viewfinder...


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## Ozarker (Sep 9, 2018)

takesome1 said:


> You shouldn't be naive about the future of EF lenses.
> 
> Canon's main goal is to figure out how to convince you that you need to upgrade to a new body and lens.
> The adapter for the EF lens to mount to R is nothing more than a free test sample to get you hooked on their next drug offering.
> Once hooked you will be buying RF lenses in their pure form.


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## eosuser1234 (Sep 9, 2018)

i said wtf and bought an EF-S lense (18-135mm nano usm) this weekend and had a blast dusting off my 7dm2. 
It is about having fun with your equipment and taking photos, not checking Canon rumors every 6 hours to see what is coming.


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## Keith_Reeder (Sep 9, 2018)

takesome1 said:


> You shouldn't be naive about the future of EF lenses.


You don't know _anything_ about the future of EF - it would be appreciated if you didn't present yourself as someone with a unique insight.

The _fact _is that nobody but Canon knows what the future holds. Whether you or CanonFanBoy prove to be right will be _nothing_ to do with naivete and _everything_ to do with lucky guesswork.


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## Keith_Reeder (Sep 9, 2018)

Kit. said:


> I wish I could do something as "limited and mediocre" as "Telegraph Road".


You can like him, he's still mediocre.

I've yet to hear anything the bugger has played that I couldn't replicate with my feet, while wearing socks. He's the _epitome_ of "getting by", technically and creatively.


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## Kit. (Sep 9, 2018)

Keith_Reeder said:


> You can like him, he's still mediocre.
> 
> I've yet to hear anything the bugger has played that I couldn't replicate with my feet, while wearing socks.


Cool. Where can I hear your concerts?


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## retroreflection (Sep 9, 2018)

There is a significant contingent which is unhappy with Canon's innovation, I'm not a member of that group.
I think Canon's behaviour in lens mounts is evidence for their well considered long range strategy for technical innovation. Autofocus was being developed and they saw the limitations of the FD mount. While possibly painful back then, they made the switch as soon as it was obvious that it was needed. When they went aps-c mirrorless they knew a new mount was needed to gain the size reduction advantage. Now FF mirrorless gives them the chance to improve the data flow to the lens (they have probably been waiting for an excuse for many years). And, they felt the short flange distance was a good thing -at least for certain lenses. They have been able to keep it compatible with EF, so the abandonment memories shouldn't be triggered. Plus, they allow EF-S to be used on FF cameras. A change in course I would not have predicted, even if it makes sense with video crops.
Nikon has been criticized for holding onto a mount for too long.
Sony has been criticized for mount design as well, in their case it is puzzling why they didn't create a new mount when they were very early in the FF mirrorless game.
Now, a company can go too far (Apple) in changing standards based on a whim. But, this new mount suggests Canon is playing a long game well.


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## takesome1 (Sep 9, 2018)

Keith_Reeder said:


> You don't know _anything_ about the future of EF - it would be appreciated if you didn't present yourself as someone with a unique insight.
> 
> The _fact _is that nobody but Canon knows what the future holds. Whether you or CanonFanBoy prove to be right will be _nothing_ to do with naivete and _everything_ to do with lucky guesswork.



So, my poke toward CFB that Canon’s goal is to sell new and improved lenses and increase sales and profit is totally off.

In a thread totally based on speculation you take offense to a post, how ridiculous.


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## Maximilian (Sep 9, 2018)

Keith_Reeder said:


> So they're currently the Mark Knopfler of the viewfinder world - very good at being limited and mediocre...


Opinions are opinions. I leave yours to you. 

And I can tell you that I have a lot of "Dire Straits" and "Mark Knopfler" music here at home
And their concerts I participated were way from beeing medicore. But that's just my opinion 



Kit. said:


> I wish I could do something as "limited and mediocre" as "Telegraph Road".


I just pot it in my player again after reading this.
YEAH!


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## Keith_Reeder (Sep 9, 2018)

Kit. said:


> Cool. Where can I hear your concerts?



Ah - _there_ it is... Not the slap-down you think it is, I'm afraid.

You don't have to be a "pro" (although I gigged and did studio work for years) to be better than a pro. The number of "experts" on here testify to that...

But for context - have a listen to Larry Carlton, Steve Lukather, Al Di Meola, Allan Holdsworth, Joe Satriani and Steve Vai - typical of the guitarists I come from and (yes) play in the same style as (depending on the music I'm playing) and then get back to me about my observations about Knopfler's mediocrity, technical banality and lack of creativity...


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## dtaylor (Sep 9, 2018)

Keith_Reeder said:


> The _fact _is that nobody but Canon knows what the future holds.



They don't even know. If DSLR sales tank and MILC sales skyrocket, you can bet resources will shift towards RF lens design. If the ratio holds fairly steady, you can bet there will be more EF lenses AND DSLRs.

The ratio has been fairly steady at nearly 2:1 globally in favor of DSLRs. Given what was already on the market before Canon and Nikon jumped in, I'm guessing it will remain so for the foreseeable future. Very small gains each year for mirrorless. We've been hearing of the impending collapse of 'flappy mirrors' since 2012. The buying public isn't convinced.

Sometime in the 2020's we will have real high resolution, lag free EVFs and on-sensor AF that can match the best off-mirror AF. We're not too far away from the latter. But the former? A '3.69 million dot' EVF is merely a quad VGA display roughly equal to a 1280x960 monitor. (Ratio is a bit off for a 2:3 camera, but you get the idea.) In other words, no where near retina display levels.

If you're not at retina display levels with virtually zero lag while burst shooting, you're not replacing the OVF for a lot of consumers.


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## Kit. (Sep 9, 2018)

Keith_Reeder said:


> Ah - _there_ it is... Not the slap-down you think it is, I'm afraid.


Well, I would really want to hear your concert, if you were as good at playing a guitar as you are saying.



Keith_Reeder said:


> You don't have to be a "pro" (although I gigged and did studio work for years) to be better than a pro. The number of "experts" on here testify to that...


However, you may be mistaken in your abilities if they are not publicly proven. You may not understand what exactly you are missing.



Keith_Reeder said:


> But for context - have a listen to Larry Carlton, Steve Lukather, Al Di Meola, Allan Holdsworth, Joe Satriani and Steve Vai - typical of the guitarists I come from and (yes) play in the same style as (depending on the music I'm playing) and then get back to me about my observations about Knopfler's mediocrity, technical banality and lack of creativity...


Found Joe Satriani on YouTube, totally not impressed. Yes, he is technically proficient in making sound. But no, he doesn't sound delicate enough to make music - compared to Knopfler or Gilmour. Larry Carlton is much better, although not my style.


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## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

when canon introduced the EF mount the FD mount had a bigger marketshare.. (what a surprise  ).
for some time canon produced both but in only 4-5 years the volume was equal.

today DSLR still dominates, but when you look at the curves (in a sales diagram) you can extrapolate when this will change. at least for new sales.

it depends for how long canon will suport the EF mount. at some point on the sales curve canon managers will see a need to get rid of the EF mount.
it makes no sense to produce new lenses and cameras when the majority is buying RF lenses. just as canon produced no FD mount camera after the T60 (i think?).

with better and better EVF i see the percentage of DSLR owners decrease pretty fast.

i could be wrong but why should the trend suddenly stop or reverse?

last year saw a pretty dramatic shift.
america, long a bastion of the DSLR, saw mirrorless shipments going up 46 percent.

canon and nikon slowed down mirrorless acceptance for the past years. just by ignoring the pro and prosumer market.
that seems to be over.

the future is mirrorless i have no doubt about that. just as LCD replace CRT


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## takesome1 (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> when canon introduced the EF mount the FD mount had a bigger marketshare.. (what a surprise  ).
> for some time canon produced both but in only 4-5 years the volume was equal.
> 
> today DSLR still dominates, but when you look at the curves (in a sales diagram) you can extrapolate when this will change. at least for new sales.
> ...



This is true, and eventually the RF mount will be discontinued.

The question for all this is when?


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> it depend for how long canon will suport the EF mount. at some point in teh sales curve canon managers will see a need to get rid of the EF mount.


At some point, everyone currently posting on this forum will be dead. At some point, the sun will expand to a red giant and destroy the earth. I'm sure EF lenses will be discontinued by the time of the latter, but not necessarily the former.


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## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

takesome1 said:


> This is true, and eventually the RF mount will be discontinued.
> 
> The question for all this is when?



my guess is as good as everyones. 
but i think maybe 10 years until we see no new EF mount camera. maybe just 6-7, but very unlikely.
maybe the high end will need longer to die.

look at other tech that was replaced in the last 30 years.

i think the adapter may help to make the transition quicker.


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## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> At some point, everyone currently posting on this forum will be dead. At some point, the sun will expand to a red giant and destroy the earth. I'm sure EF lenses will be discontinued by the time of the latter, but not necessarily the former.



well when the sales curves don´t make strange things canon will come to that conclusion much faster than the sun begins to burn helium.


one thing i noticed is that old DSLR users are clinging to the OVF way more than younger customers.
older DSLR users have a greater resistance to accept an EVF.

but that problem will go ayway.

i too hated EVF until this year and the latest generation of EVF. the EVF in my a6000 is far from perfect.
and of course i prefer the viewfinder of my 5D MK4 over the EVF in the a6000.

but EVF will not get worse, they will become better and better.

AF is only a matter of readout and processing speed.
the mirror is already a limiting factor when it comes to speed i guess.

why would you make a 30 times a second flapping mirror if you don´t have to?
get rid of the mechanics. should be more reliable. cheaper to produce/assemble anyway.

sure you can´t use your camera as a spoting scope anymore with an EVF. at least not without draining power.


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## Ah-Keong (Sep 11, 2018)

Believe soon the EF-M line that would replace the xxD series and the R line that would replace the 6D and 5D series.
DSLR would become specialized tools for action (7D, 1Dx series).... 
or would it become two families like the Olympus PEN and OM-D ??


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## Mikehit (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> when canon introduced the EF mount the FD mount had a bigger marketshare.. (what a surprise  ).
> for some time canon produced both but in only 4-5 years the volume was equal.
> 
> today DSLR still dominates, but when you look at the curves (in a sales diagram) you can extrapolate when this will change. at least for new sales.
> ...



If you take the trend from 2012, the line for mirrorless is pretty much flat, so there is o real trend to 'reverse' and while mirrorless sales will increase with the entry of CaNikon to FF mirrorless, we have very little data on which to base a prediction of that curve. If it trundles along at the rates seen in the last 3-5 years it will take decades to wipe out DSLR and as has been said, CaNikon will react to the market - if people keep buying DSLR Canon will keep making EF lenses. Being in my mid-50s by the time that happens I will probably be too old to lugging around 500mm f4 lenses anyway and will sell up and expand my MFT kit.


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## Keith_Reeder (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> one thing i noticed is that old DSLR users are clinging to the OVF way more than younger customers.
> older DSLR users have a greater resistance to accept an EVF.



Nobody is doing any such thing. It is simply a fact that right now, OVFs do a better job. Maybe these (by not-at-all-subtle implication) more "open-minded" _younger customers _are just lacking in the the discernment and experience to know better.

(And are you _really _checking the ages of posters against their apparent VF preferences? Or just making "facts" up?)



> but that problem will go away.



Yeah, thanks for that insight: your diligent research will have noted that many of the _older DSLR users _have said the same thing...



> i too hated EVF until this year and the latest generation of EVF. the EVF in my a6000 is far from perfect.
> and of course i prefer the viewfinder of my 5D MK4 over the EVF in the a6000.



So you actually agree with the _Old Guys_ then...



> but EVF will not get worse, they will become better and better.



Again - not in dispute.



> AF is only a matter of readout and processing speed.



Is that "all"? I suspect it's rather more than that.


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## Keith_Reeder (Sep 11, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> Being in my mid-50s by the time that happens I will probably be too old to lugging around 500mm f4 lenses anyway and will sell up and expand my MFT kit.



Naah...

I'm 58, and I've just come back from a week of lugging my 500mm f4/7D Mk II/converters/everything else I've needed for days in the hills, up and down the Cairngorms in Scotland. And this is walking into and out of the sites I was shooting - not driving to a venue and back.


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 11, 2018)

Here are some actual data for all the Chicken Littles out there...

MILC shipments to Asia outnumber those to the rest of the world. In Japan, Canon's top selling ILC are (in descending order): Kiss X9i (Rebel T7i/800D) > Kiss X9 (Rebel SL2/200D) > Kiss M (M50) > 80D > M100. In other words, of Canon's top five domestic ILCs, three are DSLRs...including the top two. Across brands, 4 of the top 5 best-selling ILCs in Japan are DSLRs...in a market where MILCs are more popular than other markets. And for those who think that somehow the FF MILCs from Canon and Nikon will change that dynamic, there's not a single FF ILC among the top 20 ILCs in Japan.

Back in 2012, some pundits of the day predicted the death of the DSLR in 5 years. Today's Chicken Littles are predicting it even sooner, and time will prove them just as foolish as the pundits from 2012. Unlike rational people with the intelligence to comprehend the above facts, some folks on these boards will go on predicting imminent doom for the DSLR.


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## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

Keith_Reeder said:


> Nobody is doing any such thing. It is simply a fact that right now, OVFs do a better job. Maybe these (by not-at-all-subtle implication) more "open-minded" _younger customers _are just lacking in the the discernment and experience to know better.
> 
> (And are you _really _checking the ages of posters against their apparent VF preferences? Or just making "facts" up?)



actually there are companys and universitys who do that.
it´s called market research.

they can even tell you which fruits are more liked by the older generation.
i work for a company called qioptiq. we get such researches.


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## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Here are some actual data for all the Chicken Littles out there...
> 
> MILC shipments to Asia outnumber those to the rest of the world. In Japan, Canon's top selling ILC are (in descending order): Kiss X9i (Rebel T7i/800D) > Kiss X9 (Rebel SL2/200D) > Kiss M (M50) > 80D > M100. In other words, of Canon's top five domestic ILCs, three are DSLRs...including the top two. Across brands, 4 of the top 5 best-selling ILCs in Japan are DSLRs...in a market where MILCs are more popular than other markets. And for those who think that somehow the FF MILCs from Canon and Nikon will change that dynamic, there's not a single FF ILC among the top 20 ILCs in Japan.
> 
> Back in 2012, some pundits of the day predicted the death of the DSLR in 5 years.



how many pro or prosumer mirrorless camera models did canon and nikon produce during this time?

that when both big player basically only offer DSLR cameras these DSLR cameras will dominate the market is nothing that would surprise me.
the numbers in 2017 show that things change. and with canon and nikon going mirrorless FF, change will only gain traction.

who would have thought in 2012 that canon (and nikon) drags it´s feet for so long?

if the DSLR survives it is because canon does everything to protect it not because people prefer the DSLR.


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## Mikehit (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> how many pro or prosumer mirrorless cameras models did canon and nikon produce during this time?
> 
> that when both big player basically only offer DSLR´s camers that these DSLR cameras will dominate the market is nothing that would surprise me.
> the numbers in 2017 show that things change. and with canon and nikon going mirrorless the change will only gain traction.
> ...



Has Canon dragged their feet? They joined mirrorless manufacturers in 2012 - why do you always assume the only mirrorless that matter are full frame? And between Canon, Panasonic, Sony and Canon mirrorless has NOT significantly increased market share in all that time.
For someone who gives the impression they understand market research, it seems your powers of analysis are very much lacking.


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## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> Has Canon dragged their feet? They joined mirrorless manufacturers in 2012 - why do you always assume the only mirrorless that matter are full frame? And between Canon, Panasonic, Sony and Canon mirrorless has NOT significantly increased market share in all that time.
> For someone who gives the impression they understand market research, it seems your powers of analysis are very much lacking.



canon has produced mirrorless aps-c yes.... with sub par specs to protect the DSLR line.
bad or no EVF. point and shoot ergonomics.
i tried the EOS-M cameras and the AF was bad. until the EOS M5 i would never think about buying into that line. and the M5 is still not 100% there.

canon has to thank it´s reputation and low price that the EOS-M line sold so well.

but if i was in the market for an aps-c camera during that time, i would have sure bought a DSLR too.

today there are basically nikon and canon clinging to the OVF (pentax has no influence on the market).
all other brands have gone mirrorless. many of the old canikon customer and many of the new customer will decide to buy mirrroless in the future.
it´s only logical that EVF market share will rise and DSLR markt share will drop (as it has constantly over the last years).








> For someone who gives the impression they understand market research, it seems your powers of analysis are very much lacking.



i never said im into market research... just that i read their results.

i think that some people underestimate what it means that canon and nikon are now introducing FF mirrorless.
it´s a sign that mirrorless is "here" now. the technology (EVF, AF etc) is now good enough to be in canikon pro cameras.
that will also push entry level mirrorless to be more "accepted" by soccer moms and dads who bought a KISS DSLR before.


----------



## scyrene (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> when you look at the curves (in a sales diagram) you can extrapolate when this will change. at least for new sales.





JonSnow said:


> my guess is as good as everyones.



So which is it, an extrapolation or a guess? The problem is, people have been looking at the limited sales data and coming up with wildly different predictions - mostly based on their personal preferences. None of us - and I agree with what someone said above, not even the manufacturers - really knows.


----------



## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

scyrene said:


> So which is it, an extrapolation or a guess? The problem is, people have been looking at the limited sales data and coming up with wildly different predictions - mostly based on their personal preferences. None of us - and I agree with what someone said above, not even the manufacturers - really knows.



as i said i don´t know for sure. same as you don´t know for sure or anyone here. 

but for me the arguments that DSLR sales will decline even faster are more plausible than the arguments against it.
especially when the arguments are only current and past sales numbers.

i mean i could have argue about vinyl in the same way at some point in time.... but i would have been wrong.


----------



## scyrene (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> as i said i don´t know for sure. same as you don´t know for sure or anyone here.
> 
> but for me the arguments that DSLR sales will decline even faster is bigger than the arguments against it.



Okay. Remind me what those arguments are please, I'm a bit hazy.

The graph you posted above shows a significant, sustained drop of DSLR sales. But the mirrorless line went down and only just returned to the 2012 level after five years. Mirrorless doesn't seem to be the reason (from that data) for the decline of DSLRs. So what is causing it, and what relevance do these factors have to the discussion of mirrorless?


----------



## neuroanatomist (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> it´s only logical that EVF market share will rise and DSLR markt share will drop (as it has constantly over the last years).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Reading is not the same as understanding, and you are clearly deficient in the latter if you believe that plot shows the EVF market share rising over the last five years.


----------



## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Reading is not the same as understanding, and you are clearly deficient in the latter if you believe that plot shows the EVF market share rising over the last five years.



i said in 2017, you may need to read that again (to understand it).

what i wrote in brackets is about DSLR sales constantly declining. just in case you did not get that. 




JonSnow said:


> the numbers in 2017 show that things change.
> ...
> last year saw a pretty dramatic shift.
> america, long a bastion of the DSLR, saw mirrorless shipments going up 46 percent.



so don´t put words into my mouth to make your own non arguments look valid. 
if you say that´s only one year back and does not provide enough data to show a trend..... yeah well we can talk again at the end of 2019.

wait until most mirrorless sensor can AF and track as fast and accurate as sonys A9.
who will then stick to a DSLR?


----------



## docsmith (Sep 11, 2018)

Ah-Keong said:


> Believe soon the EF-M line that would replace the xxD series and the R line that would replace the 6D and 5D series.
> DSLR would become specialized tools for action (7D, 1Dx series)....
> or would it become two families like the Olympus PEN and OM-D ??


It is possible, if they release a crop sensor R camera and a series of smaller lenses. But, I think you are missing out on something, which is that the M is positioned in a distinctive market that R cannot: Small. 

I would hope we are past thinking that camera size is simply about the mirror. Rather, it seems to be about, listed in general order of importance:

Sensor size
Mount diameter
MILC vs DSLR
Just to name three. The FF R will always have a large sensor and will always need larger lenses (except for a few pancakes here or there). You could go for a APS-C sensor, but then you still have the 54 mm mount diameter. 

The M has a smaller sensor (APS-C), smaller mount diameter, and is MILC. So the M-line will always be smaller compared to the R. I think small is a distinctive market for adventure, travel, hiking, and much of the population that just wants a small yet highly featured camera. Thus, I am expecting a "consumer" level existence for the M for years to come.


----------



## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

scyrene said:


> Okay. Remind me what those arguments are please, I'm a bit hazy.



what are the arguments that the DSLR will stay dominant or relevant... remind me. 
in the past it was the superior quality of the OVF. i don´t see that anymore, not for the majority of cases.
the better tracking capabilities. i see that argument completely gone in 1-2 generations (if not today already).

you can sure find plenty of arguments here why mirrorless will take over (if your not lazy).


----------



## scyrene (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> what are the arguments that the DSLR will stay dominant or relevant... remind me.
> in the past it was the superior quality of the OVF. i dont see that anymore for the majority of cases.
> 
> you can sure find plenty of arguements here why mirrorless will take over (if your not lazy).



Weak.


----------



## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

scyrene said:


> Weak.



well not as weak as your try.
if your unable to find arguments pro and contra and make up your mind i pity you.. but i am sure not supporting your lazyness.

past sales numbers are sure not more convincing arguments for future developments than the extrapolation of current developments.
if that would be the case you would be the guy that predicted DVD would never replaced VHS and we would still all listen to vinyl in 2018.


ps:

its´ strange that some peope here can´t have a discussion without making it personal on some levels. it´s a bad character trait.
if you want to talk about some points you don´t agree with, mention them.


----------



## neuroanatomist (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> i said in 2017, you may need to read that again (to understand it).
> 
> so don´t put words into my mouth to make your own non arguments look valid.
> 
> if you say that´s only one year back and does not provide enough data show a trend..... yeah well we can talk again at the end of 2019


Lol. Sure, quoting yourself out of context really makes your case.

Fine...2017. In 2017, MILC shipments managed to struggle back to 2012 levels, helped by the recovery boost after the 2016 earthquake.

But you're right, MILC market share appears to be increasing. For 2016 it was 27%, and 2017 it was 35%. However, after the first 7 months of 2018 it's 37%. Oops, there goes your trend (remember that earthquake boost I mentioned?). If that YTD rate continues, MILC share should equal DSLR share in 2021 or so. That's equal market share, not the end of the DSLR.

As your namesake says, Winter is Coming. Just not very soon. As was said to your namesake, "You know nothing, Jon Snow."


----------



## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Lol. Sure, quoting yourself out of context really makes your case.
> 
> Fine...2017. In 2017, MILC shipments managed to struggle back to 2012 levels, helped by the recovery boost after the 2016 earthquake.
> 
> ...



where did i say that mirrorless market share has risen constantly over the past 5 years?
the only one quoting out of context is you.

you are maybe so old that the past is the only thing you think of. but the past is obviously not the future.
i speak about the future with nikon and canon as players in the FF mirrorless market.
with new mounts and some innovations coming to mirrorless only.

both mirrorless cameras are not even available on the market today.

you speak about a past where canon and nikon did everything to protect their DSLR sales.


Mehr als die Vergangenheit interessiert mich die Zukunft, denn in ihr gedenke ich zu leben.




> MILC share should equal DSLR share in 2021 or so. That's equal market share, not the end of the DSLR.



who exactly said the DSLR will be dead in 3 years? it wasn´t me... i am sure.


by the way one country where mirrorless grew constantly is thailand.
thailand’s mirrorless camera market has seen consecutive year on year double digit growth for the past five years.



> According to insights from a GfK consumer study on mirrorless cameras, 10% of the online population in Thailand had purchased a mirrorless camera in the past year, and the intention to purchase one in the next 12 months is even higher, at 14%—an indication that the robust market condition is likely to continue.
> 
> “Mirrorless cameras are rising in popularity among photography enthusiasts who are interested to take high quality images as they are light, compact and easy to operate; as well as more affordable than the higher-end DSLR,” highlighted Gerard Tan, Senior Director, Technology Retail Tracking, GfK Asia. “It is also interesting to highlight that in Thailand, mirrorless cameras are increasingly desirable as they are akin to luxury goods, which consumers tend to acquire to achieve a certain social status.”
> 
> The consumer study revealed that two-thirds of mirrorless camera users are within the age range of 18 to 35 years of age, and three-fifth of those who have the intention to purchase also fall within this age bracket.


----------



## fullstop (Sep 11, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> As was said to your namesake, "You know nothing, Jon Snow."



reported. Incessant ad hominem attacks. Why can't you state your opinions and arguments without personal attacks?


----------



## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

fullstop said:


> reported. Incessant ad hominem attacks. Why can't you state your opinions and arguments without personal attacks?



yeah well i wondered about that too. seems to be a character trait of this user ,as far as i can tell from other posts he made.

a typical passive agressive behavior.


----------



## Mikehit (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> canon has produced mirrorless aps-c yes.... with sub par specs to protect the DSLR line.
> bad or no EVF. point and shoot ergonomics.



Define 'bad EVF'.
Sub par specs? Yet it still the top selling mirrorless range in Japan. That suggests to em that all those specs in the Sony cameras mean squat to the average consumer



JonSnow said:


> canon has to thank it´s reputation and low price that the EOS-M line sold so well.


So what you are saying is that the Sony camera is so good, so excellent.... that it cannot overcome the supposed reputation of the Canon range. I suggest to you that that shows how low down the scale of priorities the Sony technical gizmos are and that all people really care about is taking a picture. 




JonSnow said:


> many of the old canikon customer and many of the new customer will decide to buy mirrroless in the future.



Very likely. The question is whose will they buy



JonSnow said:


> it´s only logical that EVF market share will rise and DSLR markt share will drop (as it has constantly over the last years).



The DSLR curve has plateaud and the mirrorless curve is not showing significant advance. Basing prediction on that is always risky.




JonSnow said:


> i think that some people underestimate what it means that canon and nikon are now introducing FF mirrorless.



Really? Do you care to educate us and where people are gong wrong?



JonSnow said:


> it´s a sign that mirrorless is "here" now.


Mirroless has been here for 10 years and Canon has been part of it for 5 years. Sony for 6.




JonSnow said:


> the technology (EVF, AF etc) is now good enough to be in canikon pro cameras.


For a lot, not all, people.
The secret is putting that technology into a product people like using - and several DSLR users on this forum have tried it and they have found the advantages of mirrorless are not enough to outweigh the handling.




JonSnow said:


> that will also push entry level mirrorless to be more "accepted" by soccer moms and dads who bought a KISS DSLR before.


Problem is those KISS users now find that their phone is good enough.


----------



## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> Define 'bad EVF'.
> Sub par specs? Yet it still the top selling mirrorless range in Japan. That suggests to em that all those specs in the Sony cameras mean squat to the average consumer



when i drive on our autobahn i see way more VW golf than porsche.

EOS-M is cheaper. the line has cheaper models.
i bought my sister an EOS M100. it´s all she will ever need. doesn´t make it a camera i would buy.
sony would need an entry level model around 330 euro like the canons.

the brand name (as i already said) plays a role.

but that all doesn´t mean that I would prefer an EOS M10 over a sony A6500.

but i thought this discussion is about mirrorless vs. DSLR??
not sony mirrorless vs. canon mirrorless???



> Really? Do you care to educate us and where people are gong wrong?



i think i already did that. and time will prove that i am right. 



> So what you are saying is that the Sony camera is so good, so excellent.... that it cannot overcome the supposed reputation of the Canon range. I suggest to you that that shows how low down the scale of priorities the Sony technical gizmos are and that all people really care about is taking a picture.



canon and nikon have a large userbase. for the uphill battle sony had to face they are doing pretty good.
if sonys claim is correct they have overtaken canon in the american market (FF).

that´s pretty impressive i would say.

canons EOS R mirrorless will push back. i am sure.
but this is DSLR v.s mirrorless. instead you try to make it sony vs. canon (old habits are hard to kill i guess?  ).





> Mirroless has been here for 10 years and Canon has been part of it for 5 years. Sony for 6.



as i wrote, canon with mostly sub par cheap models.




> The secret is putting that technology into a product people like using - and several DSLR users on this forum have tried it and they have found the advantages of mirrorless are not enough to outweigh the handling.



and what kind of percentage would that be overall?

some still have vinyl players.

i did not like EVF either. the sonys are to small for my taste.

but the latest generation of EVF brings more advantages than disadvantages.
the EOS R seem to be of good size and handling.


----------



## Kit. (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> when i drive on our autobahn i see way more VW golf than porsche.


I would put it this way: when I drive on our autobahns, I see more Cayennes than Caymans.


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## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

Kit. said:


> I would put it this way: when I drive on our autobahns, I see more Cayennes than Caymans.



when i visit sylt that could be true. 


when we think back the same kind of arguments came from people who where 60 years old when digital cameras made their entry.

"film will never die".

well it´s is not completely dead but i would call it a zombie.

the people who are 60 now have the same nostalgic view i guess.
and like the film guys back then... some of their arguments are true.. at least for a while.

"film has a higher resolution than digital files"... true back than.
"film will always have an advantage because it has a higher resolution" ... wrong.

"colors look better on film" .... true back than.
"film will always look better because of the color rendition".... wrong.

today a technology will maybe not die completely.
i have friend who still use floppys to store TXT files and i have friends who shoot occasionally on film.

but i have no friends who watch the latest movies on betamax or VHS.
some may keep the recorder to watch old family videos.

the DSLR will go the way of the DODO just like other technology.
a small percentage will use it for notalgic reasons. just as i collect roleiflex cameras.


----------



## scyrene (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> well not as weak as your try.
> if your unable to find arguments pro and contra and make up your mind i pity you.. but i am sure not supporting your lazyness.
> 
> past sales numbers are sure not more convincing arguments for future developments than the extrapolation of current developments.
> ...



What's personal about it? You sound defensive. But your evidence is slight and your analogies poor, so I'm not surprised you have both resorted to personal comments (see quote below) whilst simultaneously claiming you've been personally attacked. I see this a lot online, it's not worth engaging with.



JonSnow said:


> you are maybe so old that the past is the only thing you think of.


----------



## Mikehit (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> canon and nikon have a large userbase. for the uphill battle sony had to face they are doing pretty good.
> if sonys claim is correct they have overtaken canon in the american market (FF).
> that´s pretty impressive i would say.


I don't think even Sony are really claiming that, and won't until they have long term data. Impressive? I'd say "file under M for m'eh"



JonSnow said:


> as i wrote, canon with mostly sub par cheap models.


You say that this is not a Canon vs Sony yet keep referring to M series as sub par. Sub par to what if not referring to Sony?




JonSnow said:


> but the latest generation of EVF brings more advantages than disadvantages.


It is all personal preference




JonSnow said:


> the people who are 60 now have the same nostalgic view i guess.
> and like the film guys back then... some of their arguments are true.. at least for a while.



It is nothing like that at all - why do you assume people unimpressed with mirrorless are all 60-year olds stuck in their ways - you are probably now going to deny that is what you meant, but it is what you keep on saying.
I have been using DSLR since the 1970s


----------



## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

scyrene said:


> What's personal about it? You sound defensive. But your evidence is slight and your analogies poor, so I'm not surprised you have both resorted to personal comments (see quote below) whilst simultaneously claiming you've been personally attacked. I see this a lot online, it's not worth engaging with.



well i don´t take your bait. we both now who is the passive agressive one here. i just reacted to personal attacks with a little gibe.

try to stay on topic.


----------



## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> You say that this is not a Canon vs Sony yet keep referring to M series as sub par. Sub par to what if not referring to Sony?



fuji, olympus....

well i thought you see what i am after

your refered to canon having mirrorless cameras for a while .... i agreed.
canon has offered mirrorless to a certain kind of customer.
those who don´t want/need an EVF and are happy with point and shoot ergonomics.

that only changed with the M5 as i wrote. the first canon mirrorless i would even consider buying.

the point is that there was no good mirrorless from canon (similiar to a REBEL).

i would prefer a rebel DSLR to an EOS M too.
but not to a canon mirrorless similiar to the A6xxx series or fuji X series.




> It is nothing like that at all - why do you assume people unimpressed with mirrorless are all 60-year olds stuck in their ways - you are probably now going to deny that is what you meant, but it is what you keep on saying.
> I have been using DSLR since the 1970s



not all. a majority.

it s a fact that mirrorless sells best to people between 18-40.
surveys show that.. i already quoted one here in this thread.

in fact i offered more valid arguments than people arguing against me.



> It is all personal preference



well in the end everything is.
film shooter will tell you that.
you will tell them digital offers instant results. they will tell you they love working for hours in the darkroom...


----------



## Mikehit (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> the point is that there was no good mirrorless from canon (similiar to a REBEL).


Yet thousands and thousands of people would disagree with you and demonstrated that by buying one. You want a discussion on DSLR vs mirrorless but keep on comparing to other mirroless. Please make up your mind.




JonSnow said:


> it s a fact that mirrorless sells best to people between 18-40.



If you mean ILCs (as opposed to phones/compacts) then PLEASE show me the data. Or are you making it up?


----------



## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> Yet thousands and thousands of people would disagree with you and demonstrated that by buying one. You want a discussion on DSLR vs mirrorless but keep on comparing to other mirroless.



because it is important if something sucks or not for the acceptance in the market.
especially when BOTH market leaders are trying to PROTECT their DSLR lines.

IF canon had produced GOOD mirrorless, same price, features and ergonomics as REBEL DSLR, the market share of mirrorless would be even higher today.

it is not that hard to understand?


----------



## neuroanatomist (Sep 11, 2018)

fullstop said:


> reported. Incessant ad hominem attacks. Why can't you state your opinions and arguments without personal attacks?



As I have stated previously, ridiculous claims invite ridicule.


----------



## neuroanatomist (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> because it is important if something sucks or not for the acceptance in the market.
> especially when BOTH market leaders are trying to PROTECT their DSLR lines.
> 
> IF canon had produced GOOD mirrorless, same price, features and ergonomics as REBEL DSLR, the market share of mirrorless would be even higher today.
> ...


Conceptually, it’s quite easy to understand. It’s alsoconceptually easy to understand that some people may believe the world is flat. In the case of a round earth, we have actual data to support that. But your ‘IF Canon had done X, people would have done Y and Z would have happened’ claim has no evidence to support it.


----------



## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

correct is you have no evidence to support your claim.

you have data from the past ... even data that shows how well vinyl records sold in the past. 

while the decline of other technologys in the past at least shows a great probability that i am right. 



> But your ‘IF Canon had done X, people would have done Y and Z would have happened’ claim has no evidence to support it.



well looking at how people reacted to canons mirrorless releases i say my bet is on the safe side.
it is obvious that a lot of people wanted better mirrorless options from canon. they decide to buy a DSLR because canon did not offer such options.

when we see sales numbers of the EOS R and NIKON Z cameras i bet they show that my predictions are pretty good.


----------



## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> As I have stated previously, ridiculous claims invite ridicule.




yes of course everyone who disagrees with you has ridiclous opinions. why do you even participate in discussions?
you are obviously not interested in a discussion.


----------



## Mikehit (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> because it is important if something sucks or not for the acceptance in the market.
> especially when BOTH market leaders are trying to PROTECT their DSLR lines.
> 
> IF canon had produced GOOD mirrorless, same price, features and ergonomics as REBEL DSLR, the market share of mirrorless would be even higher today.
> ...



In whose opinion does it 'suck'? That is a purely subjective assessment that many thousands do not agree with. Since when were you (or I ) the arbiter of what is a 'good' camera'? Are you denying that if Sony could be a leading camera manufacturer by releasing something like the M5/M6 that they would not do so?



JonSnow said:


> especially when BOTH market leaders are trying to PROTECT their DSLR lines.


You have absolutely zero evidence that that that was the design behind the M series. This is the Rebel series we are talking about for Christ's sake, not the premium xD series. 



JonSnow said:


> IF canon had produced GOOD mirrorless, same price, features and ergonomics as REBEL DSLR,



More likely to be that they cannot. Would it not make sense to test their tech on the lower end? Just like they are releasing the mid range R series first and not the main body?



JonSnow said:


> it s a fact that mirrorless sells best to people between 18-40.
> surveys show that.. i already quoted one here in this thread.



No you didn't. You made an unsupported claim.




JonSnow said:


> in fact i offered more valid arguments than people arguing against me.


Really?


----------



## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

> That is a purely subjective assessment that many thousands do not agree with. Since when were you (or I ) the arbiter of what is a 'good' camera'?



well you seem to be happy with point and shoot ergonomics and no EVF in a mirrorless. ...i am not.

for me the M models without a viewfinder are not a good mirrorless cameras. cameras that can compete with a REBEL.
and when we talk about the success of the KISS cameras and DSLR market share that is important.

that is why many people, who would have bought a "rebel like" canon mirrroless, then decided to buy a rebel instead of the less appealing EOS M.
you really want to tell me that you think that has no influence on how the mirrorless vs. DSLR numbers look?

and i dare to say the majority... outside this forum....will agree with me that the EOS M cameras are not good mirrorless cameras compared to the competition.
with the exception of the M5 and M50, as i said.



Mikehit said:


> In whose opinion does it 'suck'? That is a purely subjective assessment that many thousands do not agree with. Since when were you (or I ) the arbiter of what is a 'good' camera'? Are you denying that if Sony could be a leading camera manufacturer by releasing something like the M5/M6 that they would not do so?



read again you may get what i mean.
i explained it a few times now and i don´t do it again.





> No you didn't. You made an unsupported claim.





> The consumer study revealed that two-thirds of mirrorless camera users are within the age range of 18 – 35 years of age, and three-fifth of those who have the intention to purchase also fall within this age bracket.



that is from one survey done in thailand.
i have seen the same surveys for germany, UK and france. with basically the same numbers.
when you are really interested you sure find a way to use google.


----------



## dak723 (Sep 11, 2018)

Oh, the usual internet BS and everyone trying so hard to be smart - and failing.

Why? Because we have no idea how the market will go in the future. Neither Canon or Nikon's FF mirrorless have even hit the market yet, so we have no idea how popular they will be over the next 3 or 4 years. We have no idea when Canon and Nikon will produce a *full mirrorless line *of APS-C cameras. That will be the biggest factor as crop sells far more than FF. 

But saying, "We have no idea what the future holds in terms of DSLR vs. Mirrorless sales" is obviously too boring for the internet geniuses. At the moment, there are advantages and disadvantages to Mirrorless. There is no evidence to support that Mirrorless is somehow a technological advance that will replace DSLRs - at this time. Only time will tell. Ho-hum.....


----------



## ethanz (Sep 11, 2018)

Remember what happened to Jon Snow. He died but was resurrected by some lady in red with a few spells. Those may be some parallels to the topic on hand.


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## Mikehit (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> well you seem to be happy with point and shoot ergonomis and no EVF in a mirrorless. ...i am not.



Who said I am? I don't own a M series camera and I make sure all cameras I buy have a VF.
I was talking about how popular the camera is and how that level of sales shows that many people do not seem to care about the things you find are so important. Unlike you I am not bringing my own personal prejudices to this discussion. 




JonSnow said:


> that is from one survey done in thailand.
> i have seen the same surveys for germany, UK and france. with basically the same numbers.
> when you are really interested you sure find a way to use google.



So I googled the phrase you quoted and found the reference. Did you read the footnote?

https://www.gfk.com/insights/press-...emand-for-mirrorless-cameras-in-thailand-gfk/



> The online survey was completed by 540 respondents between 18 - 55 years of age who purchased a mirrorless camera such as Sony, Fujifilm, Canon and Olympus in the past 12 months. The survey also included those who intend to purchase one in the next 12 months.


How do they define 'mirrorless camera'? Interchangeable lens? Compact? MFT? APS-C? With or without EVF?
Maybe older people who have had a bit of experience with photography prefer DSLRs.
So I could interpret this as supporting my contention that people do not really care about the same functionality you do and that is why Canon sells well - it produces what people want not what Sony tell them they want.


----------



## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

dak723 said:


> But saying, "We have no idea what the future holds in terms of DSLR vs. Mirrorless sales" is obviously too boring for the internet geniuses. At the moment, there are advantages and disadvantages to Mirrorless. There is no evidence to support that Mirrorless is somehow a technological advance that will replace DSLRs - at this time. Only time will tell. Ho-hum.....




it´s probably cheaper to produce, faster, more reliable (flapping a mirror 30 times a second?).
a shorter flange distance offers advantages in lens design.
the AF will be better as far as we can tell.
you can magnify with an EVF.
the connection to the lens is faster, new RF mount offers more possibilities.
you can see way more infos in the viewfinder. not possible with traditional OVF. hybrid OVF would increase price.
you save the weight of the pentamirror/prism and the mirror.
no mirror vibration.
it´s silent... shall i go on?

what are exactly the benefits of an OVF?
needs no energy.

it the past you could say lag and resolution.
but that´s not a problem anymore (lag isn´t) and resolution should not be a problem.
and if you are insisting that resolution is still a problem that cripples your ability to take images.. it will not be in future EVF generations.


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## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> Who said I am? I don't own a M series camera and I make sure all cameras I buy have a VF.
> I was talking about how popular the camera is and how that level of sales shows that many people do not seem to care about the things you find are so important.



i quote myself again:

for me the M models without a viewfinder are not a good mirrorless cameras. cameras that can compete with a REBEL.
and when we talk about the success of the KISS cameras (or NIKONS equivalent) and DSLR market share that is important.

that is why many people, who would have bought a "rebel like" canon mirrroless, then decided to buy a rebel instead of the less appealing EOS M.
because canon/nikon had nothing that could compete with a rebel at the same feature level.

you really want to tell me that you think that has no influence on how the mirrorless vs. DSLR numbers look?



Mikehit said:


> Maybe older people who have had a bit of experience with photography prefer DSLRs.



what now you are agreeing with me? LOL
does it matter why they are more prone to stick to the OVF?

this is what i wrote....



> one thing i noticed is that old DSLR users are clinging to the OVF way more than younger customers.
> older DSLR users have a greater resistance to accept an EVF.


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## Mikehit (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> i quote myself again:
> 
> that is why many people, who would have bought a "rebel like" canon mirrroless, then decided to buy a rebel instead of the less appealing EOS M.
> you really want to tell me that you think that has no influence on how the mirrorless vs. DSLR numbers look?



I am not denying that at all because there is no way to tell. I am one of those who think mirrorless is an evolution with its place and not a panacea that many seem to think, and that it has functions that sound great on the spec sheet but are low on peoples' priorities when buying a camera.
And what I was questioning was your assertion that Canon intentionally crippled the EOS-M to protect the KISS range (I believe it is more that Canon did not have the technology to make it better). And that in crippling it they had made 'no good [mirrorless] camera'. Whether there are better cameras are irrelevant to that point.


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## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

Mikehit said:


> I am not denying that at all because there is no way to tell.



well is it more likely than not that a mirrorless 80D would have cut away away some sales from the traditional 80D?

i think so.

i think having a mirrorless option would see the traditional 80D sales drop quite a bit.

thinking that the DSLR is dominant because people prefer them, when both major players offer not much in terms of mirrorless in the bestselling segment, is maybe not correct.
and therefore you might see a quick change in markt share when both major player introduce APS-C models that can compete with the rebel line.

i for one will sure not buy another aps-c dslr.
when i buy aps-c it has to be mirrorless.

i am not buying a aps-c DSLR to accompany my 5D Mk4.
i am waiting for the next M5.


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## Kit. (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> well you seem to be happy with point and shoot ergonomics and no EVF in a mirrorless. ...i am not.


I am happy with point and shoot ergonomics on my point and shoot mirrorless cameras, thank you very much. And a camera for which I'd like to put more effort into shooting would better come with an OVF - at least for now.



JonSnow said:


> that is from one survey done in thailand.
> i have seen the same surveys for germany, UK and france. with basically the same numbers.
> when you are really interested you sure find a way to use google.


I honestly don't see what is "whopping" in 41% of _first-time_ whatever camera purchasers in Thailand being 25-34 years of age.

Looks like marketing BS to me, carrying the only message: "you are in this age bracket, you need to buy our product".


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## ethanz (Sep 11, 2018)

Kit. said:


> I am happy with point and shoot ergonomics on my point and shoot mirrorless cameras, thank you very much. And a camera for which I'd like to put more effort into shooting would better come with an OVF - at least for now.
> 
> 
> I honestly don't see what is "whopping" in 41% of _first-time_ whatever camera purchasers in Thailand being 25-34 years of age.
> ...



Take a look at the age demographics for Thailand. 

0-14 years: 16.93% (male 5,933,269/female 5,649,864)

15-24 years: 14.17% (male 4,943,583/female 4,752,038)

25-54 years: 46.32% (male 15,677,322/female 16,009,399)

55-64 years: 12% (male 3,851,575/female 4,358,837)

65 years and over: 10.58% (male 3,165,799/female 4,072,449) (2017 est.)

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/th.html


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## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

Kit. said:


> Looks like marketing BS to me, carrying the only message: "you are in this age bracket, you need to buy our product".



they have no product to sell....

btw: that screenshot is not related to the thailand survey.
it´s from a different survey done in america.


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## fullstop (Sep 11, 2018)

mirrorslappers still around is almost entirely thanks to poor supply in the mirrorfree department. the problem is/was supply side, not demand side. agree 100% with that.

speaking of supply side: it is really weird that/why Sony would not bring some updated A5### and A6### APS-C camera models. it should not take vast R&D resources and should well be possible in parallel to churning out FF MILCs. no idea, why they basically leave the field to Canon EOS M and Fuji X system. stupid, Sony!


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 11, 2018)

fullstop said:


> mirrorslappers still around is almost entirely thanks to poor supply in the mirrorfree department. the problem is/was supply side, not demand side. agree 100% with that.


Yes, we know. If only the Canon EOS AvTvMR and Nikon fullZstop models had been available for the past 5 years, DSLRs would be dead.


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## cayenne (Sep 11, 2018)

dtaylor said:


> Exactly. Mirrorless hype is driven in part by the fact that people don't bother to look at CIPA sales data. DSLRs out sell MILCs by a very wide margin.
> 
> I'm curious to see the impact of all the new MILC bodies being announced. But my guess is that we are still many years away from "the end of the DSLR", and in fact still years away from majority MILC sales globally.
> 
> ...




Maybe Magic Lantern can get in there, and "unlock" the video on the new EOSR....?


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> i think so.
> 
> i think
> 
> ...


I think that if he had deployed a greater force on Wellington's right flank, Napoleon would have been victorious at Waterloo. But much like all of your thoughts, it didn’t happen that way.


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## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

we will look at the numbers in a few month. you can´t have a discussion with people who only post stupid one liners without substance.


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> we will look at the numbers in a few month. you can´t have a discussion with people who only post stupid one liners without substance.


That makes sense. You can’t hold a discussion with people who only post hypothetical conjecture without evidence to support their opinion, or people who ignore the relevant data previously posted.


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## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> That makes sense. You can’t hold a discussion with people who only post hypothetical conjecture without evidence to support their opinion.



or people who base their opinions about future developments on numbers from years past.

how is it driving in your ford T model while listening to music on your walkman?

i mean that all sold pretty well in the past.... LOL


ps: i am a tesla owner. i like new technologys.


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> or people who base their opinions about future developments on numbers from years past.
> 
> how is it driving in your ford T model while listening to music on your walkman?
> 
> ...


Lol. In the context of forming opinions about future market share in an established market, you're saying it's better to base them on nothing or stuff you make up in your head, instead of data and facts? Well, you do you. 

Hopefully your new technology doesn't fatally accelerate you into a highway barrier.


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## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Lol. In the context of forming opinions about future market share in an established market, you're saying it's better to base them on nothing or stuff you make up in your head, instead of data and facts? Well, you do you.



you are not clairvoyant enough to know what i think.
so better don´t try. 

your opinions are based on "everything will be fine and my beloved DSLR will be here forever".

what are your data and facts? alternative facts.. yeah maybe.
what is it that keeps the DSLR alive? what will be the advantage of having a new DSLR in 2028 instead of a mirrorless?

the fact that it sold better than mirrorless in the past years? so did VHS when i bought my first DVD player.

i say, look at other outdated technologies and what happend. do companys support them ad infinitum?

think about how canon will react when the production of EF lenses and DSLR cameras make no sense anymore.

why did canon stop supporting the FD mount?

oh i know that is not the same situation we are in right now.
you can´t compare that. blah blah....

the transition from EF to RF is easier today.
hell i can´t wait to use my TS-E 17mm on a mirrorless with EF adapter + ND filter.


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> your opinions are based on "everything will be fine and my beloved DSLR will be here forever".


Interesting that when I quoted you verbatim, you accuse me of putting words in your mouth. Please show me where I said anything even close to your above "quotation".

How does your assessment of the basis for my opinions align with the fact that I own three EOS M models and all the EF-M lenses?

Apparently you need to distort facts so they support your worldview or some other such nonsense. Good luck with that. 

Incidentally, speaking of facts…how does the whopping 2% growth of MILC market share so far this year align with your worldview about the imminent dominance of mirrorless?


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## JonSnow (Sep 11, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Interesting that when I quoted you verbatim, you accuse me of putting words in your mouth. Please show me where I said anything even close to your above "quotation".



maybe your bad influence made me do it.
i mean your napoleon gibberish made me all fuzzy....



> Incidentally, speaking of facts…how does the whopping 2% growth of MILC market share so far this year align with your worldview about the imminent dominance of mirrorless?



so you predict a 2% growth of mirrorless market share in 2019. is that what you say?
mhm, still better than the rapid decline of DSLR market share in the past years.

oh wait.... you predict we reached a plateau for DSLR sales when mirroless market share will only grow 2%.
i wonder which DSLR cameras will compensate for the new sony, panasonic, fuji, nikon and canon mirrorless cameras.
will the 90D come soon? or maybe just price reduction and "SALE!" of rebels product. sell em cheap....

and what is the source for this number?




> Apparently you need to distort facts



what facts? care to elaborate?




> imminent dominance of mirrorless?



oh.. there it is again. when did i say imminent?
what does imminent mean for you....? the meaning may changes with age.

or maybe you just trying to ... what ... distort my words?



JonSnow said:


> but i think maybe 10 years until we see no new EF mount camera. maybe just 6-7, but very unlikely.


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## Kit. (Sep 11, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> they have no product to sell....
> 
> btw: that screenshot is not related to the thailand survey.
> it´s from a different survey done in america.


Doesn't matter. My first-time purchased mirrorless camera was Olympus Stylus Epic.

Those surveys don't tell what you pretend they tell. If disproportionately many mirrorless are sold to younger people, it doesn't mean that older people buy disproportionately many SLRs. It may as well say that younger people buy disproportionately many cameras in total.


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## Azathoth (Sep 11, 2018)

The XXXXD, XXXD and the 1D line will be the last to die. We will probably see another 1D and a bunch of new Rebels. And the last to be sold will be a Rebel, probably the very bottom.


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## scyrene (Sep 12, 2018)

Sometimes I think we need age verification on this site


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 12, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> so you predict a 2% growth of mirrorless markt share in 2019. is that what you say?
> 
> and what is the source for this number?



No I make no such prediction (nor did I earlier in this thread, despite your carefully selective quoting earlier where you excluded the, "If that YTD rate continues," clause of my post).

The numbers are from CIPA (2018 July data, total shipments Jan-Jul). Simple math is required.




JonSnow said:


> what facts? care to elaborate



Lots of 'alternative facts' here, for example:


JonSnow said:


> canon has produced mirrorless aps-c yes.... with sub par specs to protect the DSLR line.
> 
> ...
> canon has to thank it´s reputation and low price that the EOS-M line sold so well.



Your statement about Canon's motivations is...fact?

Canon's reputation and the low price of the M line being the only reason for the M line's popularity is a...fact? A real fact is that in general a given M model is priced higher than closest equivalent DSLR. Or maybe you were referring to the 'fire sale' on the original M (that's when I bought mine)...but the fact is that fire sale didn't happen in Asia, the largest MILC market (and the dichotomy was much larger back then), and the full-price EOS M quickly became the #2 MILC in Japan, behind only a 2-gen-old, deeply discounted Sony NEX.




JonSnow said:


> oh.. there it is again. when did i say imminent?
> what does imminent mean for you....? the meaning may changes with age.





JonSnow said:


> .you are maybe so old that the past is the only thing you think of. but the past is obviously not the future.





JonSnow said:


> its´ strange that some peope here can´t have a discussion without making it personal on some levels. it´s a bad character trait.



Yes, it's definitely a bad character trait. You should work on that.


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## ethanz (Sep 12, 2018)

scyrene said:


> Sometimes I think we need age verification on this site



I can't tell how old these people actually are though. And if you make it too low, you may exclude me.


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## takesome1 (Sep 12, 2018)

JonSnow said:


> if the DSLR survives it is because canon does everything to protect it not because people prefer the DSLR.



Really? 

Canon cares about making a profit and they will sell what makes money.
If Canon is selling DSLR's a year from now it is because people want to buy DSLR's.


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 12, 2018)

takesome1 said:


> Canon cares about making a profit and they will sell what makes money.
> If Canon is selling DSLR's a year from now it is because people want to buy DSLR's.


Exactly. Canon cares about what *the market* wants, not what a handful of forum dwellers want. But many of those forum dwellers seem to think they represent the market. Delusions of self-importance, hubris, or just plain cluelessness. But Canon doesn't mind, they'll just keep on making what sells.


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## aa_angus (Sep 12, 2018)

I highly doubt we will see a 5DV slapper. Why would we? What's the point when they could release a mirrorless version with more bells and whistles? I think there *might* be a 1DXIII.


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 12, 2018)

aa_angus said:


> I highly doubt we will see a 5DV slapper. Why would we? What's the point when they could release a mirrorless version with more bells and whistles? I think there *might* be a 1DXIII.


The point is that DSLRs still outsell MILCs. If there's market for it (and there almost certainly will be), Canon will make one. 

So far this year, MILC marketshare has gone from 35% to 37%. At that weak growth rate, DSLRs will be here for a long time to come.


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## 3kramd5 (Sep 12, 2018)

aa_angus said:


> I highly doubt we will see a 5DV slapper. Why would we? What's the point when they *could release a mirrorless version with more bells and whistle*s?



Other than RF lenses, what bells and whistles could a mirrorless version exclusively have? Technically, I can think of none, but since I’m not omniscient I’ll keep asking that question (I’ve probably posed it in one form or another 30 times, never receiving a response I agree with, i.e. something a mirrorless camera could have than an SLR can not).

A SLR version could have an EVF (in addition to the OVF), and everything else besides the short flange and the lenses it allows.

To some a slightly narrower body is a bell, so it’s fair to ring that one here. My response is that’s a trade, since a mirrorless camera can not have an OVF nor purpose-designed AF and metering sensors (at least not without moving the sensor out of the path before using them, or moving them out of the path before capture).


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## BillB (Sep 12, 2018)

aa_angus said:


> I highly doubt we will see a 5DV slapper. Why would we? What's the point when they could release a mirrorless version with more bells and whistles? I think there *might* be a 1DXIII.


One variable might be the sensor that is developed for the next 5d cameras. If the sensor is a high megapixel replacement for the 5DS sensor, maybe there might be a separate 5DSII DSLR version and a 5DR version but no 5DV DSLR version.


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## Keith_Reeder (Sep 13, 2018)

fullstop said:


> reported. Incessant ad hominem attacks. Why can't you state your opinions and arguments without personal attacks?


Because the opinions and arguments are routinely being ignored in favour of ranting zealotry on behalf of mirrorless, based entirely on fantasy and made-up facts?

How - _exactly - _do you argue with someone whose tinfoil hat has clearly fallen off?


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## JuanMa (Sep 13, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> The point is that DSLRs still outsell MILCs. If there's market for it (and there almost certainly will be), Canon will make one.
> 
> So far this year, MILC marketshare has gone from 35% to 37%. At that weak growth rate, DSLRs will be here for a long time to come.


Electronic will sooner or later always replace mechanical, it’s more reliable, cheaper and easier to repair. No doubt DSLRs will be replaced by MILCs, it’s just a matter of time.


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## Kit. (Sep 13, 2018)

JuanMa said:


> Electronic will sooner or later always replace mechanical, it’s more reliable, cheaper and easier to repair. No doubt DSLRs will be replaced by MILCs, it’s just a matter of time.


The second sentence does not follow from the first one, as interchangeable lenses are by themselves that "mechanical" component that might be worth getting rid of.


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## JuanMa (Sep 13, 2018)

Kit. said:


> The second sentence does not follow from the first one, as interchangeable lenses are by themselves that "mechanical" component that might be worth getting rid of.


Mechanical parts that can be replaced by electronic always end up being replaced. At least, it is what I’ve been seeing in the industry. I love my 5DM2 and M4 but no doubt that sooner or later the DSLRs will be replaced by MILCs.


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## Ian_of_glos (Sep 13, 2018)

aa_angus said:


> I highly doubt we will see a 5DV slapper. Why would we? What's the point when they could release a mirrorless version with more bells and whistles? I think there *might* be a 1DXIII.


Given the choice between a 5D mk5 and a mirrorless camera with similar specs (dual card slot for example) I would choose the 5D mk5 every time.
Apart from the fact that I prefer using an optical viewfinder, a 5D mk5 would allow me to use all my existing lenses without modification, whereas the mirrorless camera requires me to use an adapter or purchase some of the new RF mount lenses. 

The point that many people seem to be missing is that, as people move to the mirrorless camera systems there will be a lot of very high quality lenses entering the second hand market. Why would a young photographer buy an expensive new full frame mirrorless camera when he/she could buy a professional grade DSLR and lenses for a fraction of the cost? It might even start a new trend. Once Canon/Nikon realise that a lot of photographers are still using DSLRs and lenses, they are likely to try and sell some new products to them. After all they already have the expertise and if the market exists then I am sure they will try to exploit it.


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## Kit. (Sep 13, 2018)

JuanMa said:


> Mechanical parts that can be replaced by electronic always end up being replaced.


Sure. And mechanical zooms end up being replaced by electronic zooms.



JuanMa said:


> I love my 5DM2 and M4 but no doubt that sooner or later the DSLRs will be replaced by MILCs.


You do not have doubts, but I do. ILCs by themselves are a shrinking niche, in part because of the mechanics involved in changing the lenses.


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 13, 2018)

JuanMa said:


> Electronic will sooner or later always replace mechanical, it’s more reliable, cheaper and easier to repair. No doubt DSLRs will be replaced by MILCs, it’s just a matter of time.


Electronic system do offer advantages. Reliability and ease of repair aren't necessarily among them. Electronics fail too, just for different reasons...and most consumer electronics items are cheaper to replace than to repair. Nor do those advantages mean certain replacement, and even if replacement happens 'sooner or later', later might be measured in decades. Electronically-controlled faucets, toilet valves, and door locks have been available for years. How prevalent are they in homes today?


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 13, 2018)

JuanMa said:


> Electronic will sooner or later always replace mechanical, it’s more reliable...


Tell that to the guy that got stuck in his car for hours after his electronic door release failed.


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## JuanMa (Sep 13, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Tell that to the guy that got stuck in his car for hours after his electronic door release failed.


Haha, poor guy. You have found a good example. I think that electronic failures are often in ways that we don’t expect.


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## neuroanatomist (Sep 13, 2018)

JuanMa said:


> Haha, poor guy. You have found a good example. I think that electronic failures are often in ways that we don’t expect.


So true! Some time back, two of the lights on my car's dashboard were lit (brake indicator flashing, traction control indicator on). The diagnostic codes (remember life before those, when you didn't need a computer to fix your car?) indicated a steering angle sensor problem, but replacing that didn't correct the lights, nor did addressing the next code (O2 sensor, IIRC). It turned out to be a problem with the remote engine start. Go figure.


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## takesome1 (Sep 13, 2018)

neuroanatomist said:


> Electronically-controlled faucets, toilet valves, and door locks have been available for years. How prevalent are they in homes today?



During my trip to Japan this year I noticed almost all the toilets Electronic. One might think the US is technologically behind from this observation.

Personally I prefer the American Standard Champion 4, it eats golf balls, is self scrubbing and has the slow close lid. Most importantly if the power goes off the bathroom will not stink for hours because I do not know where the manual over ride is.


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## dak723 (Sep 13, 2018)

That's odd, my mechanical Olympus OM-1 was about 30 years old and still working fine when I sold it. My electronic Canon Original Rebel lasted 9 years and I was THRILLED that it lasted that long. The idea that electronics last longer and are more reliable may be true in some cases, but not in cameras necessarily.


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## Rocky (Sep 14, 2018)

JuanMa said:


> Haha, poor guy. You have found a good example. I think that electronic failures are often in ways that we don’t expect.


Three out of four cars of mine have the first fail in electronics: Computer, Ignition module, Body control module. No engine failure, no drive train failure.


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## Antono Refa (Sep 14, 2018)

jeanluc said:


> Actually I think a lot of us enthusiasts change gear more than many pros...pro means you make a living with your camera, and the pros I know often keep using older (not ancient) gear longer than I do because it works well, causes no problems and still makes then money...you still see a lot of 5d3 and even 5d2’s shooting weddings.



A few years ago I've seen a wedding photographers with an EF 28–80mm f/2.8-4L mounted on his camera. Apparently they were happier with the photos than they were with each other...


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## Ozarker (Sep 15, 2018)

Keith_Reeder said:


> You don't know _anything_ about the future of EF - it would be appreciated if you didn't present yourself as someone with a unique insight.
> 
> The _fact _is that nobody but Canon knows what the future holds. Whether you or CanonFanBoy prove to be right will be _nothing_ to do with naivete and _everything_ to do with lucky guesswork.


He was being funny, Keith. Or that's how I took it.


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## Keith_Reeder (Sep 15, 2018)

CanonFanBoy said:


> He was being funny, Keith. Or that's how I took it.


Meh. There's a difference between funny and "funny"...


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