# An update on the Canon 2021 roadmap [CR2]



## Canon Rumors Guy (Jan 10, 2021)

> Last week I wrote about cameras that I was told were coming in 2021 by a pretty solid source. That post has brought more information about the accuracy of the information.
> A couple of other sources have now told me that while that information has some accuracy to it in the middle of last year, things have changed significantly with the roadmap.
> The pandemic and manufacturing challenges that are still raging have changed the plans for 2021. One source told me that the “most exciting camera coming from Canon” will be in the 2nd half of the year, which would most likely be the EOS R1 (unconfirmed name).  Other product announcements have not been finalized as the situation Canon and others are facing make it “impossible to plan too far ahead”.
> It sounds like we may have to temper our expectations for 2021. I also suspect there is going to be a lot of contradictory information about product...



Continue reading...


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## DrToast (Jan 10, 2021)

CanonWatch will have to update his article!


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## ericblenman (Jan 10, 2021)

You would expect schedules to continue moving back until things are back to full force on the manufacturing end. Not many schedules are going to move up, unfortunately.


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## usern4cr (Jan 10, 2021)

Sounds like the R5s might not happen until late this year or even into next year. Wow.


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## tron (Jan 10, 2021)

So no R7. No problem my R5, 5DsR, 5DIV, D500 and D850 are more than enough and up to all tasks (Personal opinion of course).

EDIT: And a "lowly" 90D attached to 100-400 I often seem to forget about!


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## dolina (Jan 10, 2021)

*Edit: The 2020 1D X Mark III and D6 were supposed to be the bodies for that year's Summer Games.

Due to COVID-19 the 2020 Summer Games was moved 52 weeks forward into 2021. Both Canon & Nikon dSLRs will still be used for that events.

It is impossible for a MILC replacement of either body to debut before 1 January 2024.

If the R1 is the MILC replacement of the 2020 1D X Mark III then we're 36 months too early.

Double grip pro-bodies tend to be out Q1 of the year of the Summer Olympics.

Next Summer Games to occur after the rescheduled 2020 event is in 2024.*

What is more likely are a MILC replacement of the

2015 5Ds/5Ds R by June
2014 7D Mark II by September.
RF L lenses I would like to see in 2021/2022

15-35mm f/4L IS
10-24mm f/4L IS
70-200mm f/4L IS
135mm f/2L IS or faster
100mm f/2.8L IS Macro
~180mm f/3.5L IS Macro
24mm f/1.4L
35mm f/1.4L
28-300mm IS wide to tele zoom
8-15mm f/4L IS Fisheye
TS-R line up
What I'd like to see in 2023/2024

200-400mm f/4L IS
200mm f/2L IS
300mm f/2.8L IS
500mm f/4L IS
800mm f/5.6L IS
1200mm f/8L IS


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## marathonman (Jan 10, 2021)

dolina said:


> If R1 is the MILC replacement of the 2020 1D X Mark III then you're 48 months too early.
> 
> Double grip pro-bodies tend to be out Q1 of the year of the Summer Olympics.
> 
> Next one's August 2024.



Or currently 23 July to 8 August 2021 in Tokyo, Japan.....


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## tron (Jan 10, 2021)

This is the supposed year for the postponed Tokyo Olympics 2020. 

All information on the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020, to be held in 2021


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## usern4cr (Jan 10, 2021)

dolina said:


> If R1 is the MILC replacement of the 2020 1D X Mark III then you're 48 months too early.
> 
> Double grip pro-bodies tend to be out Q1 of the year of the Summer Olympics.
> 
> ...


You're assuming a lot. They could very well have the summer Olympics this year, and my guess is that there's a slightly better chance that they will have it. That would mean that Canon would be wise to bring the R1 out now just in case it is held, and even if it is not held then they have a new R1 body out to drive more lens sales and particularly drive the sales of their upcoming RF big white lenses.


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## tron (Jan 10, 2021)

I believe though that 2021 is a nice year for the use of 1DxIII...


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## Fbimages (Jan 10, 2021)

I love my 1DX iii, love the durability, the FPS, and the autonomy, but I am getting envious of the animal AF of the R5!


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## LensFungus (Jan 10, 2021)

Canon CEO stormed the Capitol dressed up as a horned shaman in fur and is now in jail. Canon will continue to produce new cameras after he gets out later this year.


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## dolina (Jan 10, 2021)

marathonman said:


> Or currently 23 July to 8 August 2021 in Tokyo, Japan.....





usern4cr said:


> You're assuming a lot. They could very well have the summer Olympics this year, and my guess is that there's a slightly better chance that they will have it. That would mean that Canon would be wise to bring the R1 out now just in case it is held, and even if it is not held then they have a new R1 body out to drive more lens sales and particularly drive the sales of their upcoming RF big white lenses.





tron said:


> I believe though that 2021 is a nice year for the use of 1DxIII...


COVID-19 forced a 1 year delay for the 2020 Summer Olympics as such orders for the Mark III may have been delayed or even cancelled.

No time in Canon/Nikon's history has a double grip pro body received an update in less than 2 years.

Both companies need to recoup R&D expense as such they need to sell these bodies and not render them obsolete within 2 years by releasing their MILC replacement.

MILC replacement will come out Q1 of 2024 for that year's Summer Games.

Guys come on. Don't you keep with current events? This was news from March to June.


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## Maps (Jan 10, 2021)

So everything is in a state of flux, no one knows for sure what’s going on, and plans are subject to change as events continue to unfold? If ever a rumor deserved [CR3] status, I feel like it would be this one.


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## Billybob (Jan 10, 2021)

usern4cr said:


> You're assuming a lot. They could very well have the summer Olympics this year, and my guess is that there's a slightly better chance that they will have it. That would mean that Canon would be wise to bring the R1 out now just in case it is held, and even if it is not held then they have a new R1 body out to drive more lens sales and particularly drive the sales of their upcoming RF big white lenses.



I'm interested in at least seeing the R1 specs. I would very much like to purchase my first "big white" this year. It will likely be my only big white. The body is likely to drive my purchase decision as much as whether Canon releases/announces an RF 600mm f/4. I could either go Sony or Canon. 600mm lens IQ and performance is pretty close across all brands, so weight is going to be a major factor. Currently, the weight of 600mm f/4 lenses is pretty close between the two brands (Nikon's version is a pound or two heavier). While I love my R5, I think that the AF still trails the Sony A9 in some respects. By contrast, the A9's low resolution is what prompted me to acquire an R5. I suspect that the next professional-level body releases from both companies will converge on all three dimensions (AF accuracy, AF performance, and higher resolution). If so, I'll stay with Canon. If not, I'll acquire the body/lens combo that best meets my needs/desires.


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## padam (Jan 10, 2021)

Fbimages said:


> I love my 1DX iii, love the durability, the FPS, and the autonomy, but I am getting envious of the animal AF of the R5!


I think at some point they will update the firmware since the R6 with almost the same sensor and processor also has this feature (but they need to modify it so it works with a quicker mechanical shutter), although one has to use the fixed LCD screen on the 1DX III, which is a bit inconvenient.


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## SteveC (Jan 10, 2021)

dolina said:


> COVID-19 forced a 1 year delay for the 2020 Summer Olympics as such orders for the Mark III may have been delayed or even cancelled.
> No time in Canon/Nikon's history has a double grip pro body received an update in less than 2 years.
> Both companies need to recoup R&D expense as such they need to sell these bodies and not render them obsolete within 2 years by releasing their MILC replacement.
> MILC replacement will come out Q1 of 2024 for that year's Summer Games.
> Guys come on. Don't you keep with current events? This was news from March to June.


It would definitely break precedent for them to release it now, but it wouldn't break _*all*_ precedent. This is, thanks to Covid, an Olympic year. If they released something before March, it'd be a match relative to the Olympic scheduling but not a match from the standpoint of how often they update models. I could imagine them doing it, if only because Covid has upended a lot of things and forced many traditions to be altered. (However, the rumor claims it will be later this year, so there's that!)
And it's "only" 36 months too early for 2024 (Q1 2024 - Q1 2021 = 3 years).


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## spomeniks (Jan 10, 2021)

Always a shame to hear about delays, especially when there’s such exciting items on the list, but ultimately it’s great that they seem to be focusing on manufacturing. Shiny new headlines are great, but when B&H still lists the C70 as “coming soon” and R5 as “new item - limited quantity“, there’s definitely some catchup to do for existing demand


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## Billybob (Jan 10, 2021)

dolina said:


> COVID-19 forced a 1 year delay for the 2020 Summer Olympics as such orders for the Mark III may have been delayed or even cancelled.
> 
> No time in Canon/Nikon's history has a double grip pro body received an update in less than 2 years.
> 
> ...


So, perhaps the MILC release won't be the Mark III replacement. Rumor is that this pro-level release will be high-resolution model with upgraded AF, performance and built specs. Photojournalists don't want a high-resolution camera, so this high-resolution camera can be sold alongside the Mark III without cannibalizing Mark III sales (overly). At least that's what I hope.


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## dolina (Jan 10, 2021)

SteveC said:


> It would definitely break precedent for them to release it now, but it wouldn't break _*all*_ precedent. This is, thanks to Covid, an Olympic year. If they released something before March, it'd be a match relative to the Olympic scheduling but not a match from the standpoint of how often they update models. I could imagine them doing it, if only because Covid has upended a lot of things and forced many traditions to be altered. (However, the rumor claims it will be later this year, so there's that!)
> And it's "only" 36 months too early for 2024 (Q1 2024 - Q1 2021 = 3 years).


Reread my post then read my revised post.

It makes zero business sense to trash the R&D expense of the 1D Mark III a year later for a R1.

Anyone who will wait for the R1 to come out before July 2021 will only be disappointed.


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## dolina (Jan 10, 2021)

Billybob said:


> So, perhaps the MILC release won't be the Mark III replacement. Rumor is that this pro-level release will be high-resolution model with upgraded AF, performance and built specs. Photojournalists don't want a high-resolution camera, so this high-resolution camera can be sold alongside the Mark III without cannibalizing Mark III sales (overly). At least that's what I hope.


Then it isn't an R1 as it gives the impression as MILC replacement of the 1-Series dSLR bodies.

It will be a 2015 5Ds or 5Ds R replacement like a better named R5s or R5s R.


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## padam (Jan 10, 2021)

Billybob said:


> So, perhaps the MILC release won't be the Mark III replacement. Rumor is that this pro-level release will be high-resolution model with upgraded AF, performance and built specs. Photojournalists don't want a high-resolution camera, so this high-resolution camera can be sold alongside the Mark III without cannibalizing Mark III sales (overly). At least that's what I hope.


Unlikely, it will be a sports camera with a very fast readout sensor, so it will be less megapixels than the R5. If you have a slower sensor you may encounter flickering in the EVF more noise or increased lag, which is not what you want.
And of course no matter what they do, it still will not match the 1DX III as far as delivering a completely lag-free experience.


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## mdcmdcmdc (Jan 10, 2021)

dolina said:


> *Edit: The 2020 1D X Mark III and D6 were supposed to be the bodies for that year's Summer Games.
> 
> Due to COVID-19 the 2020 Summer Games was moved 52 weeks forward into 2021. Both Canon & Nikon dSLRs will still be used for that events.
> 
> ...



I'd love to believe the R7 (mirrorless 7D Mark II replacement) is a priority for Canon and is still on track for a 2021 announcement, but it's somewhat of a niche product and Canon hasn't appeared overly enthusiastic about APS-C as of late, especially in the R family. On the other hand, the olympics would be a good opportunity to highlight a high-end action-oriented camera.

As for the R1 (mirrorless 1DX Mark III replacement), I believe Canon *must* release a pro-level flagship "R" body sooner rather than later. The original EOS-1 was released in September, 1989, exactly 2-1/2 years after the first EOS camera (EOS 650) in March, 1987 (according to the dates at the Canon Camera Museum site). We're already more than two years past the original EOS R release (October, 2018). What's more, if they intentionally cripple it to prevent eating into 1DXiii sales, that will send a message that Canon isn't really serious about the R family.

I'm hoping the new Canon (the one that released the R5 and R6, not the one that released the 6D Mark II and M50 Mark II) realizes that if they don't outdo themselves (by superseding the 1DXiii), somebody else will (e.g. Sony), and then Canon will have to fight to get back those customers.


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## Bahrd (Jan 10, 2021)

Canon Rumors Guy said:


> A couple of other sources have now told me that while that information has some accuracy to it in the middle of last year, things have changed significantly with the roadmap.


There is a hope for M then...


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## dwarven (Jan 10, 2021)

tron said:


> So no R7. No problem my R5, 5DsR, 5DIV, D500 and D850 are more than enough and up to all tasks (Personal opinion of course).
> 
> EDIT: And a "lowly" 90D attached to 100-400 I often seem to forget about!



I’m willing to bet if they only release two cameras they’ll be the R1 and R7.


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## dolina (Jan 10, 2021)

mdcmdcmdc said:


> I'd love to believe the R7 (mirrorless 7D Mark II replacement) is a priority for Canon and is still on track for a 2021 announcement, but it's somewhat of a niche product and Canon hasn't appeared overly enthusiastic about APS-C as of late, especially in the R family. On the other hand, the olympics would be a good opportunity to highlight a high-end action-oriented camera.
> 
> As for the R1 (mirrorless 1DX Mark III replacement), I believe Canon *must* release a pro-level flagship "R" body sooner rather than later. The original EOS-1 was released in September, 1989, exactly 2-1/2 years after the first EOS camera (EOS 650) in March, 1987 (according to the dates at the Canon Camera Museum site). We're already more than two years past the original EOS R release (October, 2018). What's more, if they intentionally cripple it to prevent eating into 1DXiii sales, that will send a message that Canon isn't really serious about the R family.
> 
> I'm hoping the new Canon (the one that released the R5 and R6, not the one that released the 6D Mark II and M50 Mark II) realizes that if they don't outdo themselves (by superseding the 1DXiii), somebody else will (e.g. Sony), and then Canon will have to fight to get back those customers.


R7 is more likely to occur than the R1 before 2024. It is also likely that an RF mount APS-C body may never occur. Canon's M-Series system is selling well according to NPD.

Photogs doing the Olympics may find MILCs limiting to their workflow. So a 1-Seriens MILC is again unlikely to come out before 2024.

The odds of an R1 to come out earlier than 2024 when canon replicates the EF L lens lineup for RF remote.


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## Maximilian (Jan 10, 2021)

Time will tell...


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## HeavyPiper (Jan 10, 2021)

I'm saving my spare dollars for the R5. With that said, I'm also looking forward to what might become my second body.


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## Billybob (Jan 10, 2021)

padam said:


> Unlikely, it will be a sports camera with a very fast readout sensor, so it will be less megapixels than the R5. If you have a slower sensor you may encounter flickering in the EVF more noise or increased lag, which is not what you want.
> And of course no matter what they do, it still will not match the 1DX III as far as delivering a completely lag-free experience.



Yes, less MP than the R5 but more than the 20MP 1 DX series. I see 32-36MP as a sweet spot. Enough MP to satisfy wildlife photographer's desire/need to crop but, perhaps, not so many MP as to be a non-starter for photojournalists. Undoubtedly, the technology and computing horsepower exists to create a fast sensor with a greater than 20-24MP sensor. The main question is not whether such a camera can be made but rather who will buy this camera if the resolution is significantly greater than 24MP. Perhaps creating a MILC targeted more to wildlife photographers now would be a way of protecting the 1DX series until time for the next iteration.


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## Jasonmc89 (Jan 10, 2021)

tron said:


> So no R7. No problem my R5, 5DsR, 5DIV, D500 and D850 are more than enough and up to all tasks (Personal opinion of course).
> 
> EDIT: And a "lowly" 90D attached to 100-400 I often seem to forget about!


I’ll have it


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## slclick (Jan 10, 2021)

Ok, well, some of us will just have to be a bit more patient. That's ok. SWWYH


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## MaxDiesel (Jan 10, 2021)

Hopefully Lenses will be the less affected, Camera’s I can see having a some big delays.

Just give me that 35mm 1.2 RF already!


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## rwvaughn (Jan 10, 2021)

dolina said:


> *Edit: The 2020 1D X Mark III and D6 were supposed to be the bodies for that year's Summer Games.
> 
> Due to COVID-19 the 2020 Summer Games was moved 52 weeks forward into 2021. Both Canon & Nikon dSLRs will still be used for that events.
> 
> ...



There's growing uncertainty among the US Olympic Coaching community if the 2020(1) games are even going to be held now. It's possible that the next games will be 2024.


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## dolina (Jan 10, 2021)

rwvaughn said:


> There's growing uncertainty among the US Olympic Coaching community if the 2020(1) games are even going to be held now. It's possible that the next games will be 2024.


I think the US should sit it out as they have they had to deal with the most COVID-19 cases worldwide and Trump.

About 80% favor canceling or postponing Tokyo Olympics in summer.

1D X Mark III, D6 and even the a9 II will become stale. 

It would be crazy of Canon to release the R1 if it's largest customers cancel or delay orders.


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## Gazwas (Jan 10, 2021)

The high resolution R is a unicorn camera and anyone holding off on the (totally amazing) R5 because of it are in for a long and dissapointing wait.


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## Famateur (Jan 10, 2021)

Given that Canon is still struggling to stock the R5 (as well as even the basic EF/RF adapter!), I would anticipate that we'll see development announcements for one or two bodies this year but not actual releases until production of already highly-sought Canon cameras meets the demand.

I've been waiting for many months to buy an R5.* Until they're regularly stocked at major dealers, I think Canon will keep a lid on new high-end releases. We might see entry-level bodies released, as those will bring more revenue, but I doubt any new high-end bodies will actually ship to dealers in 2021 -- unless/until production capacity recovers.

_* I admit, I've had a chance on a couple of occasions to buy direct through Canon or once from Best Buy, but I didn't pull the trigger. Maybe it's a subconscious loyalty to Adorama which has supplied all of my Canon gear in recent years..._


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## dolina (Jan 10, 2021)

Famateur said:


> Given that Canon is still struggling to stock the R5 (as well as even the basic EF/RF adapter!), I would anticipate that we'll see development announcements for one or two bodies this year but not actual releases until production of already highly-sought Canon cameras meets the demand.
> 
> I've been waiting for many months to buy an R5.* Until they're regularly stocked at major dealers, I think Canon will keep a lid on new high-end releases. We might see entry-level bodies released, as those will bring more revenue, but I doubt any new high-end bodies will actually ship to dealers in 2021 -- unless/until production capacity recovers.
> 
> _* I admit, I've had a chance on a couple of occasions to buy direct through Canon or once from Best Buy, but I didn't pull the trigger. Maybe it's a subconscious loyalty to Adorama which has supplied all of my Canon gear in recent years..._


I think the low number of bodies has more to do with Canon et al under forecasting actual demand and other supply chain challenges.


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## canonmike (Jan 10, 2021)

tron said:


> This is the supposed year for the postponed Tokyo Olympics 2020.
> 
> All information on the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020, to be held in 2021


Unless we get a better handle on Covid vaccines, I'm not convinced we will see any Olympic games this year. Won't mind being proven wrong, at all, as I believe relaxed travel restrictions for the games would positively lift everyone's spirits.


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## Czardoom (Jan 10, 2021)

dolina said:


> R7 is more likely to occur than the R1 before 2024. It is also likely that an RF mount APS-C body may never occur. Canon's M-Series system is selling well according to NPD.
> 
> Photogs doing the Olympics may find MILCs limiting to their workflow. So a 1-Seriens MILC is again unlikely to come out before 2024.
> 
> The odds of an R1 to come out earlier than 2024 when canon replicates the EF L lens lineup for RF remote.



You keep insisting that the R1 will be scheduled to replace the 1Dx III, but I wouldn't look at it that way, nor do I think Canon will. I look at the R1 as a parallel release with the 1DX III, giving sports photogs a choice between a DSLR (which I do think will remain popular due to its OVF) and an MILC. I don't think Canon will ignore that some sports photogs will want to go mirrorless. If they wait until 2024, that will be unbelievably stupid as those who want to go mirrorless, will move elsewhere by then. The Olympics are not the only game in town, so to speak, there are sports events of significan magnitude all year round, every year. If they have the R1 tech ready now, they will want to dominate the sports market. They can only do that if they compete now with the Sony A9. That's the way I look at it.


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## dolina (Jan 10, 2021)

Czardoom said:


> You keep insisting that the R1 will be scheduled to replace the 1Dx III, but I wouldn't look at it that way, nor do I think Canon will. I look at the R1 as a parallel release with the 1DX III, giving sports photogs a choice between a DSLR (which I do think will remain popular due to its OVF) and an MILC. I don't think Canon will ignore that some sports photogs will want to go mirrorless. If they wait until 2024, that will be unbelievably stupid as those who want to go mirrorless, will move elsewhere by then. The Olympics are not the only game in town, so to speak, there are sports events of significan magnitude all year round, every year. If they have the R1 tech ready now, they will want to dominate the sports market. They can only do that if they compete now with the Sony A9. That's the way I look at it.


Because it does not make any business sense to cannibalize your own product that soon.

Economies of scale will be lower.

Unless Canon's willing to write it off as a loss then no R1 until Q1 2024.

Summer Games is the largest show in town. That's what photojournalists from EPA, AP and Reuters tell me.

The retiree/hobbyist market is significantly different & smaller from the photonews agency market. These agencies bulk buy bodies, lenses and accessories by the hundreds. They get surveyed what they want in the next replacement cycle. If they wanted MILC sooner then Canon/Nikon would have released these bodies in Q1 2020.

If you think Sony a9 is that good then look at photojournalist pen in the last 24 months on how many are using it. Tendency it's at most 1 in a sea of Canon/Nikon lenses.


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## Famateur (Jan 11, 2021)

dolina said:


> I think the low number of bodies has more to do with Canon et al under forecasting actual demand and other supply chain challenges.



For the sake of Canon financials, I sincerely hope you're right! I'd love to see what sales volume of the R5 ends up being for 2020...


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## dolina (Jan 11, 2021)

Famateur said:


> For the sake of Canon financials, I sincerely hope you're right! I'd love to see what sales volume of the R5 ends up being for 2020...


At most 5-20% of all shipped DSC.


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## dolina (Jan 11, 2021)

I was looking over the full frame MILCs of each brand and here is what I found

5 body segmentation/specializations

Sony
Leica
4 body segmentation/specializations

Canon
Panasonic
3 body segmentation/specializations

Nikon lines
1 body segmentation/specializations

Sigma
I think Canon will only add one more new line with the R1. They will reposition the R or RP have a Mark 2.

I am uncertain if Nikon can add 2 more body lines .

APS-C MILCs may be limited to say 3 body segmentation/specializations


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## Michael Clark (Jan 11, 2021)

SteveC said:


> It would definitely break precedent for them to release it now, but it wouldn't break _*all*_ precedent. This is, thanks to Covid, an Olympic year. If they released something before March, it'd be a match relative to the Olympic scheduling but not a match from the standpoint of how often they update models. I could imagine them doing it, if only because Covid has upended a lot of things and forced many traditions to be altered. (However, the rumor claims it will be later this year, so there's that!)
> And it's "only" 36 months too early for 2024 (Q1 2024 - Q1 2021 = 3 years).



There's also the 2022 Winter Olympics to consider. If a lot of high end buyers don't buy into the 1D X Mark III because they're waiting on the R1 (or start buying R5 bodies because they're getting tired of waiting), then I could see Canon bringing the R1 out near the end of 2021in order to have it in ready to use at the 2022 Winter Olympics.


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## Michael Clark (Jan 11, 2021)

Billybob said:


> So, perhaps the MILC release won't be the Mark III replacement. Rumor is that this pro-level release will be high-resolution model with upgraded AF, performance and built specs. Photojournalists don't want a high-resolution camera, so this high-resolution camera can be sold alongside the Mark III without cannibalizing Mark III sales (overly). At least that's what I hope.



"High resolution" is relative. For the Canon 1-series, which has never exceeded 21MP, 30-35-40MP would be considered high resolution.


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Jan 11, 2021)

Michael Clark said:


> There's also the 2022 Winter Olympics to consider. If a lot of high end buyers don't buy into the 1D X Mark III because they're waiting on the R1 (or start buying R5 bodies because they're getting tired of waiting), then I could see Canon bringing the R1 out near the end of 2021in order to have it in ready to use at the 2022 Winter Olympics.


Good point. If it truly has a revolutionary autofocus system as rumored, the Winter Olympics would be a great time. I expect that tons of money is being spent on the development, so they will want to sell it as soon as its ready. The money spent to develop the 1D MK III was in 2018 and earlier, its not a factor. Increasing Revenue for development costs spent in 2019, 2020, and 2021 is a big factor.


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## navastronia (Jan 11, 2021)

I would think an R5s with the high MP sensor we've reckoned was coming since the 90D (scaling up that sensor to full-frame) would be the easiest camera for Canon to make and put out this calendar year.

Remove/modify a couple features from the R5, replace its sensor with one that goes to 90 MP, and call it a day. If it were out in July, that would be in time for landscape photographers to use it in the Northern Hemisphere's autumn this year.


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## Michael Clark (Jan 11, 2021)

Mt Spokane Photography said:


> Good point. If it truly has a revolutionary autofocus system as rumored, the Winter Olympics would be a great time. I expect that tons of money is being spent on the development, so they will want to sell it as soon as its ready. The money spent to develop the 1D MK III was in 2018 and earlier, its not a factor. Increasing Revenue for development costs spent in 2019, 2020, and 2021 is a big factor.



It seems to me that a lot of the R&D that went into the 1D X Mark III was in anticipation of a mirrorless 1-Series camera. Even the OVF AF system is based around a small CMOS sensor that is more like an imaging sensor than like any previous PDAF array. A lot of the R&D that went into the 1D X Mark III also showed up in the R5/R6. It's not like all of that R&D is gone if an R1 is introduced late in 2021 or early 2022.


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## LeBlobe (Jan 11, 2021)

if they release r7 this year , it would need at least 1 big prime with it? would make sense since its missing from RF lineup so far

I just hope they release RF 100mm or 180mm macro, i really want this before summer


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## Aussie shooter (Jan 11, 2021)

dolina said:


> I think the low number of bodies has more to do with Canon et al under forecasting actual demand and other supply chain challenges.


I dont know. The factory fire in Japan(which i posted a thread about elsewhere) has affected all Japanese camera manufacturers(as well as other tech manufatureres) and was anticipated to cause long delays to production. So putting that on top of the Covid induce supply chain issues and you have a perfect storm that is limiting the ability to produce cameras fast enough despite tue fact that the camera industry is shrinking


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## dolina (Jan 11, 2021)

Aussie shooter said:


> I dont know. The factory fire in Japan(which i posted a thread about elsewhere) has affected all Japanese camera manufacturers(as well as other tech manufatureres) and was anticipated to cause long delays to production. So putting that on top of the Covid induce supply chain issues and you have a perfect storm that is limiting the ability to produce cameras fast enough despite tue fact that the camera industry is shrinking


burned Down plants tend to be part of a supply chain challenge.


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## unfocused (Jan 11, 2021)

I don't like to question @Canon Rumors Guy when it comes to camera release rumors, but I have a hard time imagining an R1 for the summer (or possibly fall 2021) Olympics. Canon announced the 1Dx in Oct. and released it in March. They announced the 1DxII in Feb and the 1Dx III was released last February. My point is that the clock is ticking on announcing a radical new 1 series body.

We've seen no announcement. pre-announcement, teasers or leaks. Olympic level photographers need time to become familiar with the cameras (and that's for DSLRs where the basic controls and body types were familiar). Given that there are basically no major sporting events happening and it is already January, I don't see many Olympic photographers taking a chance on a completely new body style. I can't imagine anyone relying on it for the Olympics without having the opportunity to put it through the paces at other events. There is too much at risk. And, honestly, right now, what other events are there even being held for photographers to cover?

I suppose Canon could release it around the time of the Olympics and give bodies to a bunch of photographers to try out, but I doubt many would actually be using it for Olympic events. 

Additionally, it seems strange that Canon would delay an R5s in favor of the R1.The R5s, if it follows the 5Ds model, will be basically an R5 with a different sensor -- a model that presumably wouldn't require extensive retooling and could share much of the same assembly processes. The only explanation I can think of is that they are so far behind on R5 deliveries that they don't want to tie up the assembly lines with another version the R5.


----------



## boyluck04 (Jan 11, 2021)

I expect 2 entry level models that replace R & RP


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## degos (Jan 11, 2021)

dolina said:


> Summer Games is the largest show in town. That's what photojournalists from EPA, AP and Reuters tell me.



The Summer Olympics account for a fraction of one percent of all the photos used by news agencies. It's really not that big of a deal on a longer timeline.

Sure, when it's happening it's a big show. But for the other 47 months of the cycle it doesn't exist.


----------



## fentiger (Jan 11, 2021)

if canon are intent of releasing a R1,
they would need to have a compliment of big white primes that are native RF mount.


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## navastronia (Jan 11, 2021)

Yeah, thinking more about it, I’d be most disappointed if the features and specs of the R1 are basically the same as the 1-DX mk III, and releasing the camera this year almost guarantees that, no?


----------



## Exploreshootshare (Jan 11, 2021)

If Canon can/. will only release one high-end camera body, I personally think it would make more sense releasing a R5s instead of the R1 at this point. There are plenty of awesome lenses to pair with the R5s i.e. for landscape photography (RF 28-70 RF 15-35mm . Furthermore, it seems to meet a need (according to people in camera forums) and Canon could take the R5 body, put in a new sensor (90 MP) and just modify a few things.

The R1 will take more time developing, the 1DX III is pretty new on the market and so far there no dedicated wildlife/ sport RF lenses to pair with the R1. Olympics games are questionable as well, I don't see Canon pushing the R1 no matter what... 

For the other cameras:
One of the R/ RP follow up will come as well. Development should be fairly easy considering it's an evolution of existing cameras and there's always the possibility of using tech from the "top-to-buttom-approach". Production issues will probably have one camera moved to 2022 (imho RP II) and the R follow-up will be released in September 2021, the day of the three year anniversary of the R debut So far:

2018: R 

2019: RP & Ra 

2020: R5& R6

Therefore, I personally expect a maximum of three cameras being released in a year, due to production issue closer to two...

2021: R5s & R follow-up and a development announcement R1 to be in time with the Winter Olympics

2022: R1 (Winter Olympics) R7 alongside the R1 & RP Mark II

But that's just my opinion and it is probably just as accurate as "reading tea leafs".


----------



## PerKr (Jan 11, 2021)

dolina said:


> COVID-19 forced a 1 year delay for the 2020 Summer Olympics as such orders for the Mark III may have been delayed or even cancelled.
> 
> No time in Canon/Nikon's history has a double grip pro body received an update in less than 2 years.
> 
> ...



You're looking at the R1 as and update to the 1D. It isn't. It's an entirely new product that sits in the same segment as the 1D series. They need to have this out pretty soon, waiting until 2024 is not an option. That would give Sony a 7 year head start in professional mirrorless with the a9 series.
The closest comparison to the current situation is when the EF system was introduced in 1987. In 1989 the first 1D was released. The New F-1, Canons FD-mount professional camera, was not discontinued, officially, until 1994.

The 1D will continue to sell for a few years regardless. It is after all one of the very best DSLRs ever and there are plenty of people invested in EF glass who will value the advantages that DSLRs still have over mirrorless. Just like there were plenty of people invested in FD who kept buying the New F-1 and other FD-mount cameras after the EOS-1 became available.


----------



## VICYASA (Jan 11, 2021)

So... basically you have no info and the doo-doo continues to fly to the wall and we'll see what sticks. Great update!


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## dolina (Jan 11, 2021)

PerKr said:


> You're looking at the R1 as and update to the 1D. It isn't. It's an entirely new product that sits in the same segment as the 1D series. They need to have this out pretty soon, waiting until 2024 is not an option. That would give Sony a 7 year head start in professional mirrorless with the a9 series.
> The closest comparison to the current situation is when the EF system was introduced in 1987. In 1989 the first 1D was released. The New F-1, Canons FD-mount professional camera, was not discontinued, officially, until 1994.
> 
> The 1D will continue to sell for a few years regardless. It is after all one of the very best DSLRs ever and there are plenty of people invested in EF glass who will value the advantages that DSLRs still have over mirrorless. Just like there were plenty of people invested in FD who kept buying the New F-1 and other FD-mount cameras after the EOS-1 became available.


I'll put some background.

ILC market is shrinking.

Historically in terms of shipments 1-Series bodies make up ~1% of all EOS bodies produced.

1D X Mark III was released in 2020... the R1 is rumored to be released a year later in 2021.

It will split a very small market in half and increase cost to Canon by over double.

If Canon wants to lose money they'll do what you suggested.

If you're not convinced then let's talk about it when the R1 will come out.

Users on CR are outliers. They will never represent the majority of 1-Series buyers.

Photonews agencies largely dictates what will be in the 1-Series bodies. If they wanted a MILC one would have been announced 52 weeks ago.


----------



## Joel C (Jan 11, 2021)

Where is the C50? I'm ready. I'm like, totally ready.


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## BeenThere (Jan 11, 2021)

dolina said:


> Reread my post then read my revised post.
> 
> It makes zero business sense to trash the R&D expense of the 1D Mark III a year later for a R1.


Companies make these kind of business decisions all the time. Potential new products can be abandoned for many reasons. One reason is if the product has been overtaken by better technology, and another is shifting consumer demands.


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## dolina (Jan 11, 2021)

BeenThere said:


> Companies make these kind of business decisions all the time. Potential new products can be abandoned for many reasons. One reason is if the product has been overtaken by better technology, and another is shifting consumer demands.


Canon has never done that in the past.

Forums tend to concentrate outliers who think their wants will translate to rational business decisions.


----------



## Nigel95 (Jan 11, 2021)

dolina said:


> Canon has never done that in the past.


If something happened (or not) in the past, doesn't tell us what will happen in the future.
If the 'past' would tell us everything. Then we would never be surprised any more in the future? Yet we are constantly being surprised by rare events or the info that we didn't know.

I know we are on a rumors forum where we try to speculate. You appear very confident too me with your statements (other comments on the forum as well). The danger about that I think is that in reality, how much puzzle pieces do you really have of the whole puzzle (all variables that effect on this)? In fact you don't know how many puzzle pieces really exist. Just because you have a little bit of info doesn't mean you can predict the future.


----------



## dolina (Jan 11, 2021)

Nigel95 said:


> If something happend (or not) in the past, doesn't tell us what will happen in the future.
> If the 'past' would tell us everything. Then we would never be surprised anymore in the future? Yet we are constantly being surprised by rare events or the info that we didn't know.
> 
> I know we are on a rumors forum where we try to speculate. You appear very confident too me with your statements (other comments on the forum as well). The danger about that I think is that in reality, how much puzzle pieces do you really have of the whole puzzle (all variables that effect on this)? In fact you don't know how many puzzle pieces realy exist. Just because you have a little bit of info doesn't mean you can predict the future.



To better understand the challenges Canon is facing read their financial report.









Canon's Q1 financial report shows Imaging Systems net sales and profits are down 13.9%, 80.6% YoY


As a whole, Canon saw a decline of 9.5% and 18.7% in net sales and operating profit, respectively, but its Imaging Systems division took a particularly rough hit with expectations Q2 will be even worse.




www.dpreview.com





The R1 rumors is banking on photographers who never read it or even understand it.


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## mdcmdcmdc (Jan 11, 2021)

unfocused said:


> ...
> We've seen no announcement. pre-announcement, teasers or leaks. Olympic level photographers need time to become familiar with the cameras (and that's for DSLRs where the basic controls and body types were familiar). Given that there are basically no major sporting events happening and it is already January, I don't see many Olympic photographers taking a chance on a completely new body style. I can't imagine anyone relying on it for the Olympics without having the opportunity to put it through the paces at other events. There is too much at risk. And, honestly, right now, what other events are there even being held for photographers to cover?
> ...


To me, this seems like a much more logical argument than simply saying it hasn’t been four years since the 1D X Mark II was released.


----------



## [email protected] (Jan 11, 2021)

DrToast said:


> CanonWatch will have to update his article!


Any new item from Sony, Canon, Nikon will be most welcome during / hopefully after wretched Covid-19 %%$%$ off.


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## dolina (Jan 11, 2021)

Eventually Canon will have

5 full frame MILC body series
3 APS-C MILC body series
This is what Sony has now


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## entoman (Jan 11, 2021)

Most likely, Canon will be so busy trying to meet demand for the R5 and R6, that anything and everything else has to be put on hold.

Let's face it, they are both amazing cameras, and are blowing away competitors from Nikon, Sony and Panasonic, so there's no real hurry to get anything else released at the moment.

Sure it would be great to have "R7" and "R5s", but it's more important - in terms of sales - to replace the R and RP.

As for the pro "R1", there's a strong likeihood that the 2021 Olympics will never happen. In which case another postponement is unlikely and the next Olympics will actually be in 2024. So Canon and everyone else may actually decide to delay their pro models to enable further mind-boggling developments to take place.


----------



## FramerMCB (Jan 11, 2021)

I hear the next Olympics will actually be held on the Moon to avoid COVID problems. Elon Musk has Space-X hard at work on Space planes to ferry both athletes and spectators. But the rumors indicate Space-X is still at least 24 months away from a testable version. Stay tuned...

So Canon has some breathing room on the R1 and a little more time to mature sales of the 1DX Mk III.

;-)


----------



## unfocused (Jan 11, 2021)

entoman said:


> Most likely, Canon will be so busy trying to meet demand for the R5 and R6, that anything and everything else has to be put on hold...



I think this may be the case. Supply chain issues are likely to persist well into 2021 and Canon may need to build up inventory on existing models before introducing anything new.


----------



## unfocused (Jan 11, 2021)

dolina said:


> ...Users on CR are outliers. They will never represent the majority of 1-Series buyers.
> 
> Photonews agencies largely dictates what will be in the 1-Series bodies. If they wanted a MILC one would have been announced 52 weeks ago...



I think this may be where the flaw in our thinking is. I say "our" because I generally agree with you, but....

What if the target market for an R1 is not the target market for the 1Dx? 

The professional 1Dx market is conservative. I don't see a lot of professional users of the 1 series clamoring for a new mirrorless body. But, as the market shrinks, Canon may be refocusing the R1 on enthusiasts, who are already probably a bigger market for the 1Dx than actual professionals. 

The enthusiast market is a lot less price sensitive and much more willing to invest in the latest and greatest. 

If that's the case, then the Olympics, whenever they occur, is not a venue for winning professional acceptance of the R1, it's a venue to market the R1 to enthusiasts. Release or announce the body this year and put it into the hands of cash-starved professional sports photographers to generate good reviews and photos Canon can use to sell the R1 to enthusiasts. 

That would mean that CR users aren't outliers, they are actually the target market. 

Just a thought.


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## dolina (Jan 11, 2021)

unfocused said:


> I think this may be where the flaw in our thinking is. I say "our" because I generally agree with you, but....
> 
> What if the target market for an R1 is not the target market for the 1Dx?
> 
> ...


Some context to consider about 1-Series bodies.


Jan-Nov 2020 global DSC shipments45.4% is Canon1-Series Body make up 1% of all Canon ILCsTotal SLR/MILC4,789,3712,155,21721,552

With only less than 22 thousand units probably shipped would it make any sense to cannibalize sales of a camera that is supposed to be produced until as late as 2026?

R1 will come out by Q1 2024. Any earlier and it's a fantasy of an outlier who spends to much time on camera forums thinking cameras that sell for more than $1,500 sells like hotcake.


----------



## Fischer (Jan 11, 2021)

At least I did not suffer having my R6 for only weeks before the R5S came blazing out of the gate (which I sort of hoped and feared at the same time). Seems the R6 and I are in for a steady relationship...


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## SteveC (Jan 11, 2021)

Fischer said:


> At least I did not suffer having my R6 for only weeks before the R5S came blazing out of the gate (which I sort of hoped and feared at the same time). Seems the R6 and I are in for a steady relationship...



If you wanted an R5s all along, why did you get an R6 instead of an R5?


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## Dragon (Jan 11, 2021)

So if everything is on the Covid slow train, then the notion that M is going away in 2021 is even more unlikely than first assumed.


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## Hector1970 (Jan 11, 2021)

The R1 will be available for the Tokyo Olympics because I'd say its unlikely to happen this year.
By 2022 the R1 will be available.
The 1DX III already feels out of date. Other than battery life an R1 would outperform a 1 DX III on almost all fronts.
It certainly won't be a 20 MP sensor (which I think was a mistake on the 1DX III -
I think it could easily coped with 30MP and would have been a better camera for it).


----------



## fox40phil (Jan 11, 2021)

Eye-AF and object-AF > all. This is what the future is!

They just need a fast sensor with a future-like MP step. For the next 5-8 years of use. 

I would also expect 30MP at the minimum! And 20-30 fps. Hopefully without C-Raw!


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## shawn (Jan 11, 2021)

They're barely making enough lenses for demand as is, pretty sure they will be working hard to meet the demand for current cameras and lenses through most of the year. Fitting new product into the lineup when they're not even meeting current demand is kind of silly.


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## Fischer (Jan 11, 2021)

Fischer said:


> At least I did not suffer having my R6 for only weeks before the R5S came blazing out of the gate (which I sort of hoped and feared at the same time). Seems the R6 and I are in for a steady relationship...





SteveC said:


> If you wanted an R5s all along, why did you get an R6 instead of an R5?


5DS/R does 50 MPIX very nicely. 45 MPIX is just getting a mirrorless 5DS/R. R6 does mirrorless a lot cheaper and will be a better supplement to the R5S with it’s more light sensitive AF and better high ISO than the R5 - which I would never use after getting the R5S anyway. Here 90 MPIX will make a visible difference.


----------



## TinTin (Jan 11, 2021)

dolina said:


> Summer Games is the largest show in town. That's what photojournalists from EPA, AP and Reuters tell me.



My understanding is the FIFA World Cup is the world's largest sporting event. (Next one due in 2022.)

The Summer Olympics is second.

The Rugby Union World Cup is third. (Next one due 2023.)


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## bbasiaga (Jan 11, 2021)

dolina said:


> Then it isn't an R1 as it gives the impression as MILC replacement of the 1-Series dSLR bodies.
> 
> It will be a 2015 5Ds or 5Ds R replacement like a better named R5s or R5s R.



Didn't they used to have a 'high res' and low res 1Ds/1D in the same generation several years back? Maybe the first mirrorless 1 series will be the high res companion, and then the 1DXIII true replacement will come in a few years.....

It does seem soon to replace the 1DXIII directly. I could see a few R1s in the wild for testing at the olympics, but a full release seems too soon. Unless it is the high res version, which is a companion not a direct replacement. 

Its fun to speculate. 

-Brian


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## dolina (Jan 11, 2021)

TinTin said:


> My understanding is the FIFA World Cup is the world's largest sporting event. (Next one due in 2022.)
> 
> The Summer Olympics is second.
> 
> The Rugby Union World Cup is third. (Next one due 2023.)


Everyone that counter's me solely on their opinion rather than on facts/evidence. 

They all thiink that 1-Series bodies that tend to sell for more than $6,000 gets renewed annually as millions are produced annually.

Dangers of being in an echo chamber.


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## tmroper (Jan 12, 2021)

For many people, like those rich enough to afford Canon's top camera, the money keeps piling up due to lack of spending on travel and entertainment. So when it hits, its gonna hit big!


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## SteveC (Jan 12, 2021)

Fischer said:


> 5DS/R does 50 MPIX very nicely. 45 MPIX is just getting a mirrorless 5DS/R. R6 does mirrorless a lot cheaper and will be a better supplement to the R5S with it’s more light sensitive AF and better high ISO than the 5R - which I would never use after getting the 5RS anyway. Here 90 MPIX will make a visible difference.



OK, that makes sense and that's the logic I'd use. Buy two cameras as different as possible. (In fact I have an R5 and an RP, which are about as different as R cameras can be at the present time, and the R5 is more than enough pixels for me--I'd have got an R6 if only it were 30-35 MP.)

I was confused by the way you sounded like you would have been upset if the R5s came out right after the R6, and thought it would be because the R6 would then have been a pointless purchase in your mind. Clearly you must have been thinking something else. Anyhow, that's set straight now, I think.


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## Fischer (Jan 12, 2021)

SteveC said:


> OK, that makes sense and that's the logic I'd use. Buy two cameras as different as possible. (In fact I have an R5 and an RP, which are about as different as R cameras can be at the present time, and the R5 is more than enough pixels for me--I'd have got an R6 if only it were 30-35 MP.)
> 
> I was confused by the way you sounded like you would have been upset if the R5s came out right after the R6, and thought it would be because the R6 would then have been a pointless purchase in your mind. Clearly you must have been thinking something else. Anyhow, that's set straight now, I think.


If both were on the shelf I would have invested in the 5RS first. 

PS: I always thought the 5DS/R (best files) and 1DxII (speed/fast AF/high iso) were the perfect couple. Soon we can have a R5S and R6 covering the same ground - amazing!


----------



## -pekr- (Jan 12, 2021)

Fischer said:


> 5DS/R does 50 MPIX very nicely. 45 MPIX is just getting a mirrorless 5DS/R. R6 does mirrorless a lot cheaper and will be a better supplement to the R5S with it’s more light sensitive AF and better high ISO than the 5R - which I would never use after getting the 5RS anyway. Here 90 MPIX will make a visible difference.



I think that some 80+ mpx 5Rs having better high ISO than 5R is just .... a wishful thinking


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## Fischer (Jan 12, 2021)

-pekr- said:


> I think that some 80+ mpx 5Rs having better high ISO than 5R is just .... a wishful thinking


Its the R6 that has more light sensitive AF and better high iso than the R5. We will see what the High MPIX R comes with. 5DSR/R was a clear step up in AF sensitivity and acuracy from the 5DIII - and had somewhat better high iso. "Nothing is impossible"


----------



## scyrene (Jan 12, 2021)

dolina said:


> Everyone that counter's me solely on their opinion rather than on facts/evidence.
> 
> They all thiink that 1-Series bodies that tend to sell for more than $6,000 gets renewed annually as millions are produced annually.
> 
> Dangers of being in an echo chamber.



With all due respect, almost everything you've said in this thread has been assertion, with little actual evidence to back it up (and fwiw I don't have a view either way on when an R1 will be released).


----------



## dolina (Jan 12, 2021)

scyrene said:


> With all due respect, almost everything you've said in this thread has been assertion, with little actual evidence to back it up (and fwiw I don't have a view either way on when an R1 will be released).


Some context to consider about 1-Series bodies and flagship bodies in general.


Jan-Nov 2020 global DSC shipments45.4% is Canon1-Series Body make up 1% of all Canon ILCsTotal SLR/MILC4,789,3712,155,21721,552

With only less than 22 thousand units probably shipped would it make any sense to cannibalize sales of a camera that is supposed to be produced until as late as 2026?

Canon, Nikon and even Sony need to regain their R&D money from their flagship camera that may have only sold as little as 60% of their projected 2020 sales.

1-Series bodies historically get updated before a major sporting event like the Olympics. The reason being the bulk orders from photo news agencies occurs then. Enthusiasts like those that populate forums like this are a secondary market.


1D-Series BodyAnnouncement DateRelease Year's Sporting EventOriginal Opening/Closing DateEOS-1D X Mark III7 Jan 20202020 Summer Olympics24 July to 9 August 2020EOS-1D X Mark II2 Feb 20162016 Summer Olympics5 to 21 August 2016EOS-1D X18 Oct 20112012 Summer Olympics27 July to 12 August 2012

The rescheduling of the 2020 Olympics to 365 days later is unforeseen and unscheduled.

Another issue with this R1 rumor is the lack of any long white primes that are native to the RF mount. Customarily these are announced ahead of the flagship body or with it.

Last long white primes were announced 5 Sept 2018

EF 400mm F2.8L IS III USM 
EF 600mm F4L IS III USM
Those lenses are supposed to be a match with the EOS-1D X Mark III

8 out of the 9 RF L lenses have a direct replacement of 44 currently produced EF L lenses.

Even with EF to RF adapters Canon needs to up the number of their RF L lenses before customers of R1 would completely go for it.

Same as you does not matter to me whether the R1 is released this year or Q1 2024.

CR has a lot more misses that hits when it comes to rumors. This R1 rumor is one of them.


----------



## Czardoom (Jan 12, 2021)

dolina said:


> Some context to consider about 1-Series bodies and flagship bodies in general.
> 
> 
> Jan-Nov 2020 global DSC shipments45.4% is Canon1-Series Body make up 1% of all Canon ILCsTotal SLR/MILC4,789,3712,155,21721,552
> ...



It would be nice if you could supply a link or other evidence that 1 series bodies make up 1% of Canon ILC sales. If you did so earlier and I missed it, I apologize. Otherwise it is just an opinion.

You continually assert that the R1 is the successor to the 1DX III. I don't believe it is. I believe that it can be a parallel product. So, there is no reason that the R1 will follow the schedule of the 1DX series.

You seem to worry a great deal about cannibalization. I would consider this a really minor issue compared to the issue of transitioning Canon buyers to mirrorless, which seems to be happening faster than Canon (or perhaps everyone) anticipated. If photographers are ready to transition to mirrorless in great numbers, then delaying the release of the R1 due to cannibilazation worries makes little sense to me. That is just my opinion.


----------



## EOS 4 Life (Jan 12, 2021)

dolina said:


> *If the R1 is the MILC replacement of the 2020 1D X Mark III then we're 36 months too early.
> 
> Next Summer Games to occur after the rescheduled 2020 event is in 2024.*


I am not sure that Canon needs to continue with 1DX but they need 1D of some form.
There are professional action photographers who never use Liveview and therefore have no use for mirrorless cameras.


----------



## dolina (Jan 12, 2021)

Czardoom said:


> It would be nice if you could supply a link or other evidence that 1 series bodies make up 1% of Canon ILC sales. If you did so earlier and I missed it, I apologize. Otherwise it is just an opinion.
> 
> You continually assert that the R1 is the successor to the 1DX III. I don't believe it is. I believe that it can be a parallel product. So, there is no reason that the R1 will follow the schedule of the 1DX series.
> 
> You seem to worry a great deal about cannibalization. I would consider this a really minor issue compared to the issue of transitioning Canon buyers to mirrorless, which seems to be happening faster than Canon (or perhaps everyone) anticipated. If photographers are ready to transition to mirrorless in great numbers, then delaying the release of the R1 due to cannibilazation worries makes little sense to me. That is just my opinion.


Within the decade Canon USA disclosed in a video & written presentation that the 1-Series body makes up 1% of all SLR sales.

I've been looking for it on Google, Canon.com and YouTube but it appears to be removed already.

So far Ken Rockwell stipulates that the body is 1%

Because of the price bracket R1 that will be north of $4,000 & it will cannibalize $6,500 1D X Mark III sales.

Sony and Nikon does not have a MILC & SLR flagship body at the same time because the market too small.

Photogs need to look into the business side of selling of cameras when weighing any rumors published on this website.

If it does not make any business sense for Canon to do then it won't occur.

Like rumors of a Series II EF 200mm f/2L IS USM & EF 800mm f/5.6L IS USM will come out within the last 5 years. It never happened because they sell so little. 

A Series III EF 400mm F2.8L IS III USM & EF 600mm F4L IS III USM occcured because these focal lengths sell very well and updating them meant it was redesigned with more modern materials that are probably cheaper to build with and lighter too.


----------



## dolina (Jan 12, 2021)

EOS 4 Life said:


> I am not sure that Canon needs to continue with 1DX but they need 1D of some form.
> There are professional action photographers who never use Liveview and therefore have no use for mirrorless cameras.


MILC will replace SLRs in the same way as SLRs replaced range finder cameras. Its the nature of tech.

Also those working photogs who wont be comfortable with MILCs will retire by the time the R1 comes out in Q1 2024.

Even if there are a sizeable number of working photgs who will insist on an SLR body then they can still continue to buy the Mark III beyond 2024. In the same way anyone can buy a Mark II until today.

Only SLR brand now is Nikon & Pentax.

SLR market is too small to continue to spend any R&D money for that platform. Does not mean that Canon/Nikon/Pentax wont continue producing more copies of the current bodies, lens and accessories so long as there is enough demand.


----------



## privatebydesign (Jan 12, 2021)

dolina said:


> Within the decade Canon USA disclosed in a video & written presentation that the 1-Series body makes up 1% of all SLR sales.
> 
> I've been looking for it on Google, Canon.com and YouTube but it appears to be removed already.
> 
> ...


Because lets face it Ken Rockwell is the authority!

There is no way on earth anybody but Canon Japan know how many 1 series bodies are shipped, sold direct, distributed to importers and agencies.

But numbers aside, if they represent x value of sales numbers who is to say what % of profit do they get from those sales. You make a lot more profit on a $6,000 body than a $600 body.


----------



## dolina (Jan 12, 2021)

privatebydesign said:


> Because lets face it Ken Rockwell is the authority!
> 
> There is no way on earth anybody but Canon Japan know how many 1 series bodies are shipped, sold direct, distributed to importers and agencies.
> 
> But numbers aside, if they represent x value of sales numbers who is to say what % of profit do they get from those sales. You make a lot more profit on a $6,000 body than a $600 body.


I am also hesitant about using Ken Rockwell as a reference but he probably saw the same Canon presentation as I did.

Canon disclosed that information.

The margins of the 1-Series will be better than $500+ body but they need to reach a certain number of units to reach their targeted economies of scale for that product.

That figure is more than 2x 2020's CIPA numbers

If they only hit ~50% of their target sales for 2020 why would they risk cannibalizing sales further by introducing a MILC equivalent/replacement before 2024?


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## EOS 4 Life (Jan 13, 2021)

dolina said:


> I am also hesitant about using Ken Rockwell as a reference but he probably saw the same Canon presentation as I did.
> 
> Canon disclosed that information.
> 
> ...


The sensor and image processor from 1DX Mark III are in the R6.
Canon can make their R & D money back by selling R6 units.


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## dolina (Jan 13, 2021)

EOS 4 Life said:


> The sensor and image processor from 1DX Mark III are in the R6.
> Canon can make their R & D money back by selling R6 units.


All the other parts of the 1DX Mark III need to be paid for. 

There is a reason why Canon did not debut a 5D5 with a EOS R5 and 6D3 with a EOS R6 in 2020 and instead just continued selling the 2016 EOS 5D Mark IV & 2017 EOS 6D Mark II.

Customers insisting on SLRs have the current models to buy until 2025/2026 while MILC customers have the 2018-onwards models to buy.

ILCs has have their worst year in 2019 & 2020 since it peaked in 2012.


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## EOS 4 Life (Jan 13, 2021)

dolina said:


> ILCs has have their worst year in 2019 & 2020 since it peaked in 2012.


Between COVID-19, the economic crises, and the plant fire that time period is a bit of an outlier and would not be sound to use to show trends.


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## dolina (Jan 13, 2021)

EOS 4 Life said:


> Between COVID-19, the economic crises, and the plant fire that time period is a bit of an outlier and would not be sound to use to show trends.



To continue the trend of being the sole person on CR to share citations to support my point of view here are some to ponder upon.


CIPA Statistical Shipment Data​2012​2013​2014​2015​2016​2017​2018​2019​Jan-Nov 2020​Total SLR & MILC​20,157,053​17,131,367​13,839,168​13,053,999​11,607,778​11,675,689​10,759,797​8,461,490​4,789,371​SLR​16,200,451​13,825,569​10,549,890​9,709,093​8,449,043​7,595,708​6,620,999​4,504,987​2,178,839​MILC​3,956,602​3,305,798​3,289,278​3,344,906​3,158,735​4,079,981​4,138,798​3,956,503​2,610,532​

Key points

From 2012-2019

MILCs kept at between 3.1 million to 4.1 million
SLRs steadily decreased from 16.2 million to 4.5 million
In 2020

MILCs outsold SLRs
The fire occurred on October 2020. This would most likely impact Nov-Dec 2020 & 2021 shipments if Canon and other camera maker's procurement are not quick to act.

Standard procurement/supply chain practices normally have at minimum 2 suppliers for any part following the 80/20 rule. Based on the report it appears that Taiwan-based supplier makes up ~80% of that part.

The supplier that does ~20% of that part could change their production schedule to 24/7 until the other plant is up and running again. This should help stabilize supplies.

Dropping shipping volume and supply chain issues like that fire will result in more expensive camera bodies/accessories/lenses.

My optimistic outlook for 2021

Total SLR & MILC shipment will not surpass 2019's 8,461,490 but will not be lower than 6 million.
SLRs will never outsell MILCs ever again as the manufacturer's R&D focus is on mirrorless
Whatever SLR body, lens or accessories released from 2019-2020 will continue until at least 2024
Pre-2019 SLR bodies may be discontinued entirely or be replaced by a MILC equivalent
Come 2024-2026 my personal projection for global CIPA DSC shipments would be

0.6 million P&S
0.6 million SLRs
5.7 million MILCs
By then

About 57 thousand flagship full frame MILCs from Canon/Sony/Nikon(?) will be made annually.
Of which 1% of their actual users will be on forums like CR arguing about the R1 Mark II being released 12 months after the R1 thinking these cameras sell by the millions of units annually.
Flagship MILCs will cost more than $6,499
Canon/Sony/Nikon(?) will have at most 5 full frame body series and 3 APS-C body series
Canon will be at least 50% of all DSC shipped. Sony will be #2 and Nikon #3. Other brands may end up like Olympus


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## Michael Clark (Jan 17, 2021)

dolina said:


> I'll put some background.
> 
> ILC market is shrinking.
> 
> ...



What if sales of 1D Mark III bodies have been dismal because, in addition to the Covid-19 issues, many/most of the customers who Canon hoped would buy several dozen to several hundred 1D X Mark III bodies have said: "Since we don't need the 1D X Mark III for 2020 (becasue so much is shut down), we're waiting for the R1, thank you very much?"

You're suggesting Canon should dig in and force those buyers to wait until 2024 for the R1? Do you think Canon is foolish enough to believe those customers will be forced to buy 1D X Mark III bodies in the meantime when the Sony α9 III is on the horizon?

You're also assuming that *none* of the R&D Canon did for the 1D X Mark III will also apply to the R1. Much of it showed up in the R5/R6, what makes you think the 1D X Mark III wasn't, in some ways, a test bed for R1 technology? The cost of the R&D for technology shared by all of them can be amortized by selling *either* of the three.


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## Michael Clark (Jan 17, 2021)

entoman said:


> Most likely, Canon will be so busy trying to meet demand for the R5 and R6, that anything and everything else has to be put on hold.
> 
> Let's face it, they are both amazing cameras, and are blowing away competitors from Nikon, Sony and Panasonic, so there's no real hurry to get anything else released at the moment.
> 
> ...



There are Winter games currently scheduled for 2022, which may or may not go on as scheduled.


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## Michael Clark (Jan 17, 2021)

dolina said:


> Within the decade Canon USA disclosed in a video & written presentation that the 1-Series body makes up 1% of all SLR sales.
> 
> I've been looking for it on Google, Canon.com and YouTube but it appears to be removed already.
> 
> ...



That 1% number was tossed out when Canon was still selling, by your own numbers, 16 Million SLRS per annum. That would mean 160K 1-Series cameras. As you have said here _ad nauseum_, DSLR sales are eroding at a much faster rate than MILC sales. As the Rebels (and maybe M-Series) die, then the 1-Series will make up far more than 1% of what's left. That's based strictly on the numbers you have presented above.


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## Michael Clark (Jan 17, 2021)

dolina said:


> I am also hesitant about using Ken Rockwell as a reference but he probably saw the same Canon presentation as I did.
> 
> Canon disclosed that information.
> 
> ...



_*Because if Canon doesn't risk cannibalizing those sales with an R1, they risk losing those sales to Sony and the α9 III?*_


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## Michael Clark (Jan 17, 2021)

LeBlobe said:


> if they release r7 this year , it would need at least 1 big prime with it? would make sense since its missing from RF lineup so far
> 
> I just hope they release RF 100mm or 180mm macro, i really want this before summer



The lens to go with the R7 may be the RF 100-500mm, in much the same way that the EF 100-400mm II came out about the same time as the 7D Mark II.


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## dolina (Jan 17, 2021)

Michael Clark said:


> That 1% number was tossed out when Canon was still selling, by your own numbers, 16 Million SLRS per annum. That would mean 160K 1-Series cameras. As you have said here _ad nauseum_, DSLR sales are eroding at a much faster rate than MILC sales. As the Rebels (and maybe M-Series) die, then the 1-Series will make up far more than 1% of what's left. That's based strictly on the numbers you have presented above.


The CIPA number of 16 million is split among all SLR brands. Year 2021 brands are now Canon, Nikon and Pentax.

You're assuming working photographer jobs are constant.









Job Outlook for Photographers


Future Job Outlook for Photographers




job-outlook.careerplanner.com













U.S. newsroom employment has fallen 26% since 2008


While newspapers have seen steep job losses from 2008 to 2020, digital-native news organizations have seen considerable gains.




www.pewresearch.org


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## dolina (Jan 17, 2021)

Michael Clark said:


> What if sales of 1D Mark III bodies have been dismal because, in addition to the Covid-19 issues, many/most of the customers who Canon hoped would buy several dozen to several hundred 1D X Mark III bodies have said: "Since we don't need the 1D X Mark III for 2020 (becasue so much is shut down), we're waiting for the R1, thank you very much?"
> 
> You're suggesting Canon should dig in and force those buyers to wait until 2024 for the R1? Do you think Canon is foolish enough to believe those customers will be forced to buy 1D X Mark III bodies in the meantime when the Sony α9 III is on the horizon?
> 
> You're also assuming that *none* of the R&D Canon did for the 1D X Mark III will also apply to the R1. Much of it showed up in the R5/R6, what makes you think the 1D X Mark III wasn't, in some ways, a test bed for R1 technology? The cost of the R&D for technology shared by all of them can be amortized by selling *either* of the three.


You get a lot of insight about Canon/Nikon when you talk to people at Getty, EPA and Reuters.

During development of bodies, lenses and accessories Canon/Nikon gets input from the largest customers who "subscribe" to their products. Subscribe meaning they buy in buulk on a schedule.

For Canon's 1D X Series & Nikon's flagship SLR that "subscription" has always been before the Summer Olympics.

The release of those bodies indicate that the working photographers did not want MILCs at that time. Perhaps by 2024 but not now.

To have a successful release of the R1 it needs native lenses and accessories to support it. Other than f/2.8 zooms they have yet to release the long white fast primes.

The Sept 2018 announcement of the EF 400mm F2.8L IS III USM & EF 600mm F4L IS III USM tells me that Canon will release their RF mount successors by 2024 Summer Olympics.

When Canon releases a RF mount version of EF 500mm f/4.0L IS II USM & EF 300mm f/2.8L IS II USM then I'd agree that the R1 would come out before the reschedule 2020 Summer Games.

I'd appreciate that everyone take some effort when rubutting by sharing scholarly citations and be evidence/data driven.

Bad rumors occur when business realities does not line up with fantasies do not line up.

Good rumors occur when it fits a schedule and complementary hardware occur.

R5 occurred 4 years after the 5D Mark IV 
R6 occurred 3 years after the 6D Mark II 

R1 will occur within 19 months after the 1D X Mark III? 

For 2021 it is more likely that an R7 & R5s/R Mark II were to be released.


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## dolina (Jan 17, 2021)

Michael Clark said:


> _*Because if Canon doesn't risk cannibalizing those sales with an R1, they risk losing those sales to Sony and the α9 III?*_


Sony may win with the low volume customers like retirees who want a flagship body that's $2,000 cheaper than Canon/Nikon but not with guaranteed bulk buyers like EPA, Reuters, Getty, etc

Canon & Nikon own that market. Sony's trying to crack it and the rescheduled 2020 Olympics may be its best year to get at it.

The best indicator whether Sony is successful would be a photo of the photographer's 









The Crowd of Photographers at the Rio Olympics


The photo above by Getty Images photographer Pascal Le Segretain shows a common scene at the Rio 2016 Olympics: a wall of press photographers competing to




petapixel.com













What It Takes to Be an Olympic Photographer


Getty Photographers brave freezing conditions at the Winter Olympics. Ezra Shaw, covering alpine skiing at PyeongChang, shares the photo that makes it worth it.




observer.com










Olympic Games – a shot of the photographers (and their expensive gear) in Bejing to capture the action at Gill Moore Photography Blog


I'm a photographer based in Manchester specialising in commercial and editorial work. Mostly people, still life and lifestyle on location or in the studio. This blog offers an insight into life as a freelance photographer featuring current work and my influences; film, music, creativity...



gillmoorephotography.co.uk


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## EOS 4 Life (Jan 17, 2021)

dolina said:


> For Canon's 1D X Series & Nikon's flagship SLR that "subscription" has always been before the Summer Olympics.


It was not just the Summer Olympics.
An awful lot of sports were shut down this year.
Those that continued had shortened schedules.
Even the event photographers that buy 1DX cameras had fewer events and less justification for buying the latest.
A mind-numbing array of cameras was release in a shrinking market at a time with fewer opportunities.


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## dolina (Jan 17, 2021)

EOS 4 Life said:


> It was not just the Summer Olympics.
> An awful lot of sports were shut down this year.
> Those that continued had shortened schedules.
> Even the event photographers that buy 1DX cameras had fewer events and less justification for buying the latest.
> A mind-numbing array of cameras was release in a shrinking market at a time with fewer opportunities.


I was speaking of precedence specific to flagship Canon/Nikon bodies product cycles. 

These bodies are released a few quarters before the Olympics or other major sporting event to give working photogs time to verify, familiarize and practice on these new cameras. Whatever bugs they discover can be rectified weeks before the event via firmware or hardware fix.

For 2020 it was only disrupted a month after its February release. For some countries their first shipment only arrived after the lifting of their country's lock down as late as June.

There has been less new SKUs of point&shoot, SLR in the past 24 months than the years prior to it.

What the camera brands are doing now is increasing the SKUs of full frame and reducing number of SKUs of anything smaller.

When there were 3-4 SKUs of APS-C body lines today there were 5-8 SKUs years ago.


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## Michael Clark (Jan 17, 2021)

dolina said:


> The CIPA number of 16 million is split among all SLR brands. Year 2021 brands are now Canon, Nikon and Pentax.
> 
> You're assuming working photographer jobs are constant.
> 
> ...



Which, again, argues that the primary market for 1-Series types of cameras is no longer the PJ/Sports/Wildlife shooter using equipment bought for them by their company. It is fast transitioning into a rich person's hobby camera. News agencies may only update half their bodies every four years, but rich folks MUST have the latest and greatest _every time_ a new one is introduced. That's how Sony got away with offering half-baked FF mirrorless bodies with only minor upgrades every 18 months for the last eight years.


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## EOS 4 Life (Jan 18, 2021)

Michael Clark said:


> Which, again, argues that the primary market for 1-Series types of cameras is no longer the PJ/Sports/Wildlife shooter using equipment bought for them by their company. It is fast transitioning into a rich person's hobby camera.


1D is far too large for a hobby camera.
Hobbyists are much more likely to buy 5D or R5.


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## dolina (Jan 18, 2021)

Michael Clark said:


> Which, again, argues that the primary market for 1-Series types of cameras is no longer the PJ/Sports/Wildlife shooter using equipment bought for them by their company. It is fast transitioning into a rich person's hobby camera. News agencies may only update half their bodies every four years, but rich folks MUST have the latest and greatest _every time_ a new one is introduced. That's how Sony got away with offering half-baked FF mirrorless bodies with only minor upgrades every 18 months for the last eight years.





EOS 4 Life said:


> 1D is far too large for a hobby camera.
> Hobbyists are much more likely to buy 5D or R5.


Very good points guys.

Let us see who will be right between now and 23 July. I'm with the business case.

Anyone want to hazard a guess on how much the R1 will sell for? Will it directly compete with the $4,499 Sonya9 II, keep to $6,499 or be around $7,149?


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## Michael Clark (Jan 18, 2021)

dolina said:


> You get a lot of insight about Canon/Nikon when you talk to people at Getty, EPA and Reuters.
> 
> During development of bodies, lenses and accessories Canon/Nikon gets input from the largest customers who "subscribe" to their products. Subscribe meaning they buy in buulk on a schedule.
> 
> ...



*Your four year replacement schedule has been totally disrupted by the worldwide pandemic, though. It's been blown up. Totally.*

Most agencies *did not* go through with buying the numbers of 1D X Mark III bodies they would have otherwise bought if the pandemic had not happened and the Tokyo Olympics had been held as scheduled. I've got close friends who shoot for Getty and Gannet, as well as others who shoot for AP affiliates.

All previous assumptions are now off the table for the short term future. The superiority of the 1D X Mark III AF system in LV vs. shooting with the OVF has them salivating for a camera that can use those capabilities with an eye level VF. The appearance of the R5 on the scene, along with a year for many of those users to familiarize themselves with the vast improvements the 1D X Mark III in LV and the R5 offers over previous mirrorless bodies will have them rethinking what, exactly, they want when they are ready to buy again. A LOT more Sony α9 bodies are showing up on the sideline at major sporting events now than was the case a couple of years ago. That was already gaining momentum in the second half of 2019.

At the beginning of 2020 it was fair enough to say that those customers were not ready for a MILC 1-Series. That is no longer the case. They've seen how much more the 1D X Mark III offers in LV than with the OVF and mirror. They've seen the R5 and what it offers as far as the EVF is concerned. They've seen what their counterparts have been able to get with the Sony α9 bodies now that Sony is making lenses that they need. More importantly, they've talked to them about the differences in the shooting experience as top level sports photographers. They're ready for a MILC 1-Series (or Nikon or Sony equivalents)!


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## Michael Clark (Jan 18, 2021)

dolina said:


> Sony may win with the low volume customers like retirees who want a flagship body that's $2,000 cheaper than Canon/Nikon but not with guaranteed bulk buyers like EPA, Reuters, Getty, etc
> 
> Canon & Nikon own that market. Sony's trying to crack it and the rescheduled 2020 Olympics may be its best year to get at it.
> 
> ...



Guaranteed bulk buyers are about as plentiful as the Amur Leopard or the North Atlantic Right Whale. Their numbers are headed in the same direction, too.

Top level sports is more and more becoming a freelancer's game, even for those who shoot primarily for Getty and Gannett, at least here in the U.S. It's been heading in that direction for over a decade. Those who once held full time staff positions with equipment issued by the agency are now being paid less to freelance with their personally owned equipment. That's when the attractiveness of the Sony α9 began to gain momentum here in the U.S. (apart from the golf/tennis specialists and political press photographers that got tremendous benefit from fully silent operation).

This was published in 2015, and it's far more the case now than it was then.









What Killed Editorial Sports Photography?: You’ve Got To Hustle As A Sports Shooter These Days


© Bruce Kluckhohn Professional sports photography for the editorial market is an endangered species. Unfortunately, a lot of it has to do with editorial clients turning away from the professional photographer to sports enthusiasts who are willing to trade their photos for season tickets.




www.shutterbug.com





Bruce Kluckhohn, Brad Mangin, Bob Martin, Robert Seale, and Michael Zagaris are no lightweights. They're the real deal who shot for Sports Illustrated, the NBA, MLB, San Francisco Chronicle, The Sporting News, Topps, Upper Deck, etc.


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## Michael Clark (Jan 18, 2021)

dolina said:


> Olympic Games – a shot of the photographers (and their expensive gear) in Bejing to capture the action at Gill Moore Photography Blog
> 
> 
> I'm a photographer based in Manchester specialising in commercial and editorial work. Mostly people, still life and lifestyle on location or in the studio. This blog offers an insight into life as a freelance photographer featuring current work and my influences; film, music, creativity...
> ...



Yeah, because in 2008 Sony FF MILCs were already such a thing!


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## Michael Clark (Jan 18, 2021)

dolina said:


> Very good points guys.
> 
> Let us see who will be right between now and 23 July. I'm with the business case.
> 
> Anyone want to hazard a guess on how much the R1 will sell for? Will it directly compete with the $4,499 Sonya9 II, keep to $6,499 or be around $7,149?



Who said anything about July 23?

I said it's _possible_ we will see an R1 in late 2021 or very early 2022, just in time for the Winter Games. (That's assuming the 2022 Winter Olympics go on as scheduled, which is becoming less and less certain as the pandemic continues to worsen with new variants of the virus that are more easily spread emerge.)

Tokyo is not going to happen, at least not in any way that is remotely recognizable as a true quadrennial Olympiad.


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## Michael Clark (Jan 18, 2021)

dolina said:


> I was speaking of precedence specific to flagship Canon/Nikon bodies product cycles.
> 
> These bodies are released a few quarters before the Olympics or other major sporting event to give working photogs time to verify, familiarize and practice on these new cameras. Whatever bugs they discover can be rectified weeks before the event via firmware or hardware fix.
> 
> ...



Again, precedence has been *totally disrupted* by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the resulting COVID-19 pandemic. These are not normal times.


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## Aussie shooter (Jan 18, 2021)

dolina said:


> Very good points guys.
> 
> Let us see who will be right between now and 23 July. I'm with the business case.
> 
> Anyone want to hazard a guess on how much the R1 will sell for? Will it directly compete with the $4,499 Sonya9 II, keep to $6,499 or be around $7,149?


It will not be a competitor for the A9 series. The R5 already does that. The R1 will be a true heavy duty, hardcore/built like a brick outhouse allweather/all conditions workhorse. And as such will be priced substantially higher than an A9


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## dolina (Jan 18, 2021)

Michael Clark said:


> Who said anything about July 23?
> 
> I said it's _possible_ we will see an R1 in late 2021 or very early 2022, just in time for the Winter Games. (That's assuming the 2022 Winter Olympics go on as scheduled, which is becoming less and less certain as the pandemic continues to worsen with new variants of the virus that are more easily spread emerge.)
> 
> Tokyo is not going to happen, at least not in any way that is remotely recognizable as a true quadrennial Olympiad.


I hope they decide to bump Tokyo to 2024 and Paris to 2028.

I specified 23 July as that's when the rescheduled 2020 Games would open.

I wonder if there is enough demand after the Summer Games for a R1.

For the 2022 Winter Games I think they should move it to 2023 or 2026?


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## Michael Clark (Jan 18, 2021)

Aussie shooter said:


> It will not be a competitor for the A9 series. The R5 already does that. The R1 will be a true heavy duty, hardcore/built like a brick outhouse allweather/all conditions workhorse. And as such will be priced substantially higher than an A9



I don't know what it's like in Australia for full-time shooters who are typically the market for 1-Series bodies (or their Nikon counterparts).

But here in the U.S. the news agencies that once issued such gear to their full-time staffers have eliminated most of those staff positions and now hire the same guys to freelance while expecting them to provide their own equipment. Pulitzer Prize winners that once held staff slots at the same employers for decades are now freelancing (or retiring) as those staff positions no longer exist.

The price difference between the Canon/Nikon 1-Series types of cameras and the Sony α9 series is substantial enough that many freelancers are going with Sony strictly on price. It's not like the α9 can't get shots that are "good enough". The latest α9 is better than anything anyone had prior to around 2012. In an era when even current events/sports/PJ photographs have become commodities that are now worth pennies on the dollar to what they were once worth, price is becoming more and more a consideration for many shooters for whom it once was not. The R5 will likely stem that tide, but only because those shooters are now buying R5s instead of α9s to use in place of the 1-Series bodies their clients no longer provide to them. Either way, the pool of professional R1 potential buyers is drying up rapidly.


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## Michael Clark (Jan 18, 2021)

dolina said:


> I hope they decide to bump Tokyo to 2024 and Paris to 2028.
> 
> I specified 23 July as that's when the rescheduled 2020 Games would open.
> 
> I wonder if there is enough demand after the Summer Games for a R1.



France/Paris has too much political clout in the IOC for that to happen. Charles Pierre de Frédy, Baron de Coubertin saw to that when he co-founded the modern Olympics.


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## Aussie shooter (Jan 18, 2021)

Michael Clark said:


> I don't know what it's like in Australia for full-time shooters who are typically the market for 1-Series bodies (or their Nikon counterparts).
> 
> But here in the U.S. the news agencies that once issued such gear to their full-time staffers have eliminated most of those staff positions and now hire the same guys to freelance while expecting them to provide their own equipment. Pulitzer Prize winners that once held staff slots at the same employers for decades are now freelancing (or retiring) as those staff positions no longer exist.
> 
> The price difference between the Canon/Nikon 1-Series types of cameras and the Sony α9 series is substantial enough that many freelancers are going with Sony strictly on price. It's not like the α9 can't get shots that are "good enough". The latest α9 is better than anything anyone had prior to around 2012. In an era when even current events/sports/PJ photographs have become commodities that are now worth pennies on the dollar to what they were once worth, price is becoming more and more a consideration for many shooters for whom it once was not. The R5 will likely stem that tide, but only because those shooters are now buying R5s instead of α9s to use in place of the 1-Series bodies their clients no longer provide to them. Either way, the pool of professional R1 potential buyers is drying up rapidly.


Agreed. But as I said the R5 ismore than capable to deal with that sort of work. But it is the other side of things(the hardcore wildlife market- both pro and cashed up amatuer) that i think canon will also want to appeal to. And that means bomb proof. Durable. Massive battery life. Integrated grip. Made out of unobtanium so to speak.


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## bergstrom (Apr 5, 2021)

Any update on the affordable R camera?


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## slclick (Apr 5, 2021)

bergstrom said:


> Any update on the affordable R camera?


There are 3


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## bergstrom (Apr 5, 2021)

bluezurich said:


> There are 3


I've only heard of 3 cameras coming, a crop R, an expensive R1 and an affordable R type.


----------

