# DSLR & Mirrorless Camera Sales for April 2015



## Canon Rumors Guy (Jun 9, 2015)

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CIPA has published their sales figures for digital cameras for the month of April 2015. While there is an obvious spike over March 2015, the numbers are still down slightly compared to 2014. The decline year-over-year is far less than the 2013 to 2014 decline in ILC camera sales.</p>
<p>Here’s hoping we’ve seen the end of large declines in DSLR camera sales.</p>
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## old-pr-pix (Jun 9, 2015)

Originally sent in a different thread... here is a graph of the CIPA data from the website personal-view.com...

Shipments typically peak twice a year - pre-Christmas holiday season and pre-graduation/summer/Father's Day (US). This is in anticipation of significant sales pushes for those times. 

The good news is that shipments to the Americas are up significantly, but Japan is down slightly. Overall trend is still moderating unfortunately.


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Jun 9, 2015)

The numbers vary by Geography, so its not simple, and appears to be influenced by the economic situation in the various areas.

In the Americas, DSLR Sales $ in Yen are up 121% over 2014, and Mirrorless up 125.7% and Asia, DSLR sales are up 109.6% while Mirrorless sales dropped to 94% over 2014. In Europe and Japan, both countries which have devalued currency, sales are down sharply. In the Other Areas (India, Australia, Africa??), Both DSLR and Mirrorless sales are up.

The absolutely dismal sales in Japan and Europe are dragging the total down, or we would be seeing a sharp increase.

I'd say that its a matter of prices and economics rather than smart phone influence on purchases..


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## Tugela (Jun 10, 2015)

What that graph shows, if you plot out mirrorless as a percentage of DSLR sales, is that the mirrorless share of the market is steadily increasing. Mirrorless had a relatively high percentage at the end of 2012. In 2013 it was averaging around 20%, and in 2014 that increased to around 30%


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## neuroanatomist (Jun 10, 2015)

Tugela said:


> What that graph shows, if you plot out mirrorless as a percentage of DSLR sales, is that the mirrorless share of the market is steadily increasing. Mirrorless had a relatively high percentage at the end of 2012. In 2013 it was averaging around 20%, and in 2014 that increased to around 30%



The graph shows that the overall ILC market is decreasing, and the numbers indicate that mirrorless shipments are also declining 2012-2014, albeit more slowly than dSLRs.


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## Tugela (Jun 10, 2015)

The graph shows that the gap between the two types is decreasing. Do not get confused about overall numbers, it is the relative gap between the two that matters. Obviously there will be some variation in the short term as new models are released, but it is the trends that are important.

In general, once a consumer moves over to mirrorless, they probably will not go back to DSLRs, so the trend will be irreversible. Eventually, time will erode DSLRs into a niche.


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## neuroanatomist (Jun 10, 2015)

Tugela said:


> The graph shows that the gap between the two types is decreasing. Do not get confused about overall numbers, it is the relative gap between the two that matters. Obviously there will be some variation in the short term as new models are released, but it is the trends that are important.



Lol. :

The last time you discussed this, what mattered most was that dSLRs were trending downward, and mirrorless was trending upwards (and I was 'fooled by the overall market'). Now that you've learned that the upward trend for mirrorless was merely a figment of your imagination (so, who was fooled?), what matters most is the narrowing gap. 

As you say, the trends are important – and the trend from 2012 to 2014 is that *mirrorless sales are falling*. 

There's a gap between sales of blank VHS cassettes and blank Betamax cassettes. Now...don't get confused by the overall numbers. It's irrelevant that almost no one is buying blank videocassettes any more. What matters is that Betamax is narrowing the gap. : :


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## kelpdiver (Jun 10, 2015)

Tugela said:


> What that graph shows, if you plot out mirrorless as a percentage of DSLR sales, is that the mirrorless share of the market is steadily increasing. Mirrorless had a relatively high percentage at the end of 2012. In 2013 it was averaging around 20%, and in 2014 that increased to around 30%



everyone sees the pattern they want to see, I guess.

What I see on that graph is a virtually flat sales curve for mirrorless. SLRs are slowly declining, but are still at 3x-4x. To assert that the mirrorless will grow into a declining market is wishful thinking. 3-4M units a year for the entire category is not a success model. 

Mind you, I added such a camera (GH4) to my stable, and have yet to decide if I'll replace my 7d or 5d3 with the next generation model. That's behind the SLR decline - not enough reason to upgrade. But buying that GH4 hasn't changed anything - I got that for underwater use, and it hasn't erased my preference for optical viewfinders and faster focusing. 

I'll put out a (completely unfounded) theory that you see a constant line of 300k in sales because DSLR users are interested in having at least one compact camera that isn't junk.


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## dak723 (Jun 10, 2015)

Just because someone produces a graph that shows both DSLRs and Mirrorless sales on it, that doesn't mean that the two type of cameras are competing with one another. They aren't. Both types of cameras are interchangeable lens cameras - and therefore can be used for the same purposes to get the same shots. But go ahead and keep up the meaningless debates!


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## distant.star (Jun 10, 2015)

dak723 said:


> But go ahead and keep up the meaningless debates!



If it weren't for meaningless debates, what would we talk about?


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## jthomson (Jun 10, 2015)

Tugela said:


> In general, once a consumer moves over to mirrorless, they probably will not go back to DSLRs, so the trend will be irreversible. Eventually, time will erode DSLRs into a niche.



Funny I've bought 3 DSLR's (Canon SL1, 5D3 and 7D2) since I bought my mirrorless Panasonic G-3. I much prefer an optical viewfinder. Mirrorless might remain a niche it's great for backpacking due to the low weight. and 2x crop factor.


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## unfocused (Jun 10, 2015)

kelpdiver said:


> everyone sees the pattern they want to see, I guess.
> 
> What I see on that graph is a virtually flat sales curve for mirrorless. SLRs are slowly declining, but are still at 3x-4x. To assert that the mirrorless will grow into a declining market is wishful thinking. 3-4M units a year for the entire category is not a success model...
> I'll put out a (completely unfounded) theory that you see a constant line of 300k in sales because DSLR users are interested in having at least one compact camera that isn't junk.



You might be right.

What I see, is a mature market and a niche market. I see DSLR sales declining in part because the market has become saturated and the technology has matured to the point where new models don't offer that much of an advancement over previous models for most users -- The T3i was until recently Amazon's top selling DSLR despite it's age. 

MILCs are newer to the market, so it's not surprising to see some recent growth. But it looks to me like sales have pretty much plateaued. Absent any significant breakthrough, I don't expect that to change in the near term.

Honestly, I don't even know why anyone cares. If mirrorless technology gets to the point where it surpasses DSLRs in performance and usability, Canon and Nikon will offer mirrorless bodies that function with their existing lenses. I still give the odds of a transition to mirrorless at about 50/50, but if it does occur, I expect it to be gradual and most users won't notice or care, because the functionality and possibly the form-factor won't change that much. 



distant.star said:


> dak723 said:
> 
> 
> > But go ahead and keep up the meaningless debates!
> ...



Virtually all of the debates on this forum are meaningless. This one is just slightly more meaningless than others (although probably more meaningful than dynamic range discussions) But, that's what makes it all so fun!


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## Orangutan (Jun 10, 2015)

unfocused said:


> Virtually all of the debates on this forum are meaningless. This one is just slightly more meaningless than others (although probably more meaningful than dynamic range discussions) But, that's what makes it all so fun!



That's completely wrong! The big camera manufacturers have multiple, full-time marketing staff dedicated to reading and dissecting CR posts in minute detail. They use this trove of scientific data, along with chicken bones, to determine upcoming products and pricing.  8)


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## bmwzimmer (Jun 10, 2015)

I feel the biggest dslr company in the world has not released anything great since the 1DX, 5D3, and 6D back in 2012. They are so reliable that there has been no new FF offerings in so long. I bet the graph will bounce up if Canon released a great 5D4, 1DXii and 6Dii


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## Orangutan (Jun 10, 2015)

bmwzimmer said:


> I feel the biggest dslr company in the world has not released anything great since the 1DX, 5D3, and 6D back in 2012. They are so reliable that there has been no new FF offerings in so long. I bet the graph will bounce up if Canon released a great 5D4, 1DXii and 6Dii


How often do you think Canon should refresh their FF pro(-sumer) models?


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## Mt Spokane Photography (Jun 10, 2015)

bmwzimmer said:


> I feel the biggest dslr company in the world has not released anything great since the 1DX, 5D3, and 6D back in 2012. They are so reliable that there has been no new FF offerings in so long. I bet the graph will bounce up if Canon released a great 5D4, 1DXii and 6Dii



Yes, sales tend to blip upwards when a new model is released. Some think that the 5DS was significant.


I'm not sure why you think there are no new FF offerings.


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## Dylan777 (Jun 10, 2015)

bmwzimmer said:


> I feel the biggest dslr company in the world has not released anything great since the 1DX, 5D3, and 6D back in 2012. They are so reliable that there has been no new FF offerings in so long. I bet the graph will bounce up if Canon released a great 5D4, 1DXii and 6Dii



Many waited for 5D III to drop below $2.5k. Many waited for 1Dx to drop below $5k. I doubt it has to do with new models. Just look at Nikon...


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## Hillsilly (Jun 10, 2015)

For all the mums and dads who purchased a 450D (AKA XSi) in the DSLR heydays, I can't think of much that would really drive them towards buying a new DSLR. I use a 10 year old DSLR myself and have no real interest in a new Canon body. Most blogs I read say that the 2008 Nikon D700 is the best overall camera for Nikon shooters to use. I just don't know who buys new cameras these days. I'm surprised that they sell as many cameras as they do.


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## JohanCruyff (Jun 10, 2015)

Hillsilly said:


> For all the mums and dads who purchased a 450D (AKA XSi) in the DSLR heydays, I can't think of much that would really drive them towards buying a new DSLR. I use a 10 year old DSLR myself and have no real interest in a new Canon body. Most blogs I read say that the 2008 Nikon D700 is the best overall camera for Nikon shooters to use. I just don't know who buys new cameras these days. I'm surprised that they sell as many cameras as they do.


Getting better technique is almost always a better idea than getting better gear.
But if you wait a reasonable number of years, technology and features leaps from ancient models to new ones can be shocking (the 3K$ 5D classic didn't feature ISO Auto, sensor cleaning, live view etc., and now you can find that features and much more in basic 300$ models).


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## gsealy (Jun 10, 2015)

One good thing is that more people are taking more photographs than ever. Of course this has to do with social media sites and the emergence of the mobile phone camera. So I believe that the overall picture taking market is increasing. At some point the DSLR decline will level off. Many of these 'new' photographers, who now have a taste for it, will want to want to create better pictures and learn more about the art and craft of it. They will then take the next step and buy better equipment. DSLR camera sales will start to inch upward.


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## LukasS (Jun 10, 2015)

gsealy said:


> One good thing is that more people are taking more photographs than ever. Of course this has to do with social media sites and the emergence of the mobile phone camera.



I agree with first part, but I strongly disagree with second part. Around me nobody uses phone cameras to record anything more than price tag or something similar. All of the people I know and while I talk to them about photography or photographic gear have some P&S camera or entry DSLR body with some kit lens, and those that do not - are looking for some sale or large rebate to purchase one. Those that have some sort of social media accounts post occasionally their pictures, but mostly they keep it on their computers for later or print (very rarely).


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## neuroanatomist (Jun 10, 2015)

LukasS said:


> Around me nobody uses phone cameras to record anything more than price tag or something similar. ... Those that have some sort of social media accounts post occasionally their pictures, but mostly they keep it on their computers for later or print (very rarely).



I hear that's the norm in places like Mars, the Amish regions in rural Pennsylvania, and other areas where it's difficult to access Facebook.


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## jeffa4444 (Jun 11, 2015)

neuroanatomist said:


> Tugela said:
> 
> 
> > The graph shows that the gap between the two types is decreasing. Do not get confused about overall numbers, it is the relative gap between the two that matters. Obviously there will be some variation in the short term as new models are released, but it is the trends that are important.
> ...


Overall as a % mirrorless is increasing your WRONG. Only in North America is the trend as you state.


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## jeffa4444 (Jun 11, 2015)

Mt Spokane Photography said:


> The numbers vary by Geography, so its not simple, and appears to be influenced by the economic situation in the various areas.
> 
> In the Americas, DSLR Sales $ in Yen are up 121% over 2014, and Mirrorless up 125.7% and Asia, DSLR sales are up 109.6% while Mirrorless sales dropped to 94% over 2014. In Europe and Japan, both countries which have devalued currency, sales are down sharply. In the Other Areas (India, Australia, Africa??), Both DSLR and Mirrorless sales are up.
> 
> ...


In the UK (part of Europe) sales are not inline with the rest of Europe and the £ has increased markedly against the Euro since January.


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## jeffa4444 (Jun 11, 2015)

From a posting on Canon Rumors!

According to The NPD Group, overall mirrorless camera revenue has grown 16.5% over the past 12 months, with DSLR sales declining approximately 15% over the same period. During this time, Sony has experienced a robust 66% boost in their company’s mirrorless camera sales, strengthening their dominant position as the #1 overall mirrorless brand, a position they have held for 4 consecutive years.*1

“Growth in the mirrorless segment shows this new technology and form factor are resonating with consumers,” said Ben Arnold, executive director, The NPD group. “Going forward, mirrorless will continue to command a greater share of the interchangeable lens camera category.”

On top of the sales momentum, InfoTrends’ customer surveys demonstrate how strong innovation in the mirrorless space is continuing to attract a younger and more photo active ILC customer. The latest data shows that over 61% of first time ILC buyers are under the age of 35, up from 54% approximately two years ago. Key motivating factors for their photography include travel and family.


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## neuroanatomist (Jun 11, 2015)

jeffa4444 said:


> neuroanatomist said:
> 
> 
> > ... the trend from 2012 to 2014 is that *mirrorless sales are falling*.
> ...



I'm referring to CIPA data for _global _mirrorless ('non-reflex') shipments, on which the graph posted earlier is based:

2012: 3.96m units
2013: 3.30m units
2014: 3.29m units

How am I wrong? If you want to change the metric to something I didn't mention, that's your call – and it's called moving the goalposts. I'd recommend against using data from a for-profit market research firm of which Sony is a paying client and who's information is prominently featured in a Sony press release as 'evidence' but that's also your call.


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## jeffa4444 (Jun 11, 2015)

Now throw up the number for DSLRs your the one being selective. 
We use GfK for market data they source data from retailers and the whole photographic market declined through the period youve chosen and they dont need to skew anything for our puposes. They state mirrorless as a % of overall sales is increasing whilst DSLRs in numbers and value decreased. Canon lowered their forecasts in April for 2015 the main reason for that was lower end models like Rebels not the higher end models like the 5D MKIII. Im happy if any part of the market is growing and not recording any falls new camera purchases drive other purchases like bags, tripods, cards, lenses, filters etc. 
In the end whether a DSLR or Mirrorless like the Sony A7R they are tools that we use to produce photographs and its the quality of those that counts not the badge or type of camera.


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## dolina (Jun 11, 2015)

The nice thing about other brands lording it over Canon is that it will (hopefully) induce them to produce better product and services.

I see mirrorless, in the long term, appeal to consumers until such a time the technology and gear exceeds those of SLRs.


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## bdunbar79 (Jun 11, 2015)

jeffa4444 said:


> Now throw up the number for DSLRs your the one being selective.
> We use GfK for market data they source data from retailers and the whole photographic market declined through the period youve chosen and they dont need to skew anything for our puposes. They state mirrorless as a % of overall sales is increasing whilst DSLRs in numbers and value decreased. Canon lowered their forecasts in April for 2015 the main reason for that was lower end models like Rebels not the higher end models like the 5D MKIII. Im happy if any part of the market is growing and not recording any falls new camera purchases drive other purchases like bags, tripods, cards, lenses, filters etc.
> In the end whether a DSLR or Mirrorless like the Sony A7R they are tools that we use to produce photographs and its the quality of those that counts not the badge or type of camera.



Why is it his burden? You're the one disputing him. If you are claiming DSLR sales are falling faster, then show us the numbers. I'm not claiming otherwise but it's more effective than just saying "Nah uh."


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## neuroanatomist (Jun 11, 2015)

So, I was not WRONG. 

Yes, the ILC market is shrinking. Yes, dSLR sales are falling. But...MILC sales aren't rising, and dSLR sales remain much higher than MILC sales. 

Many people have questioned why Canon hasn't jumped into the MILC market with both feet. Some have stated that Canon is ******* because of their lack of a comprehensive mirrorless lineup (of course, many of them point to the imaginary growth of MILC sales). Looking at the actual data, perhaps Canon's strategy makes a bit of sense.


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## bdunbar79 (Jun 11, 2015)

neuroanatomist said:


> So, I was not WRONG.
> 
> Yes, the ILC market is shrinking. Yes, dSLR sales are falling. But...MILC sales aren't rising, and dSLR sales remain much higher than MILC sales.
> 
> Many people have questioned why Canon hasn't jumped into the MILC market with both feet. Some have stated that Canon is ******* because of their lack of a comprehensive mirrorless lineup (of course, many of them point to the imaginary growth of MILC sales). Looking at the actual data, perhaps Canon's strategy makes a bit of sense.



Can you believe I actually looked at real data and statistics? Anyways I see what you see: 2012-2013-2014-first part of 2015 MILC staying about the same.

That must mean MILC is dominating DSLR's and everyone is switching, right?


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## jeffa4444 (Jun 11, 2015)

NPD data


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## jeffa4444 (Jun 11, 2015)

http://www.gfk.com/news-and-events/press-room/press-releases/pages/photo-market-global-first-half-2014.aspx


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## neuroanatomist (Jun 11, 2015)

jeffa4444 said:


> http://www.gfk.com/news-and-events/press-room/press-releases/pages/photo-market-global-first-half-2014.aspx



Over a 6-month period, MILC sales revenues rose 8%, and prices increased by 6%. Mirrorless accounted for 22% of the ILC market. 

"Yay - let's make major investments in what is obviously a high growth potential market," Canon _didn't_ say.


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## jeffa4444 (Jun 11, 2015)

Lets see what you have to say at the end of 2015. If people like Jrista are convinced Sony are outperforming Canon and therefor prepared to sell Canon equipment to fund purchasing the Sony A7R II then you should take some notice he really understands the science behind the tool. 
At the end of the day whats the really difference in concept? replacing the traditional mirror and optical viewfinder the rest is identical including form factor.


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## neuroanatomist (Jun 11, 2015)

jeffa4444 said:


> Lets see what you have to say at the end of 2015. If people like Jrista are convinced Sony are outperforming Canon and therefor prepared to sell Canon equipment to fund purchasing the Sony A7R II then you should take some notice he really understands the science behind the tool.
> At the end of the day whats the really difference in concept? replacing the traditional mirror and optical viewfinder the rest is identical including form factor.



Oh, I understand the science just fine – my research has included digital imaging since it existed. How many camera buyers base their decisions on image sensor science? How many are influenced by anything about the sensor other than the top-line spec (i.e., MP count)? I'd wager a tiny minority, and I think you'd be delusional to suggest that Sony's BSI FF sensor will have any meaningful effect on the overall market this year...or the next...or the one after. 

Refresh my memory – did jrista say that Sony _cameras_ outperform Canon cameras? Or was he referring to the _sensor_? The moment people start buying bare silicon sensors to take pictures, please do let me know. 

I've got nothing against mirrorless per se...I own and use one. The main advantage is smaller size, an advantage you toss out the window the moment you put an f/2.8 zoom on one, moreso if you need to sandwich an adapter in there to use a lens with a dSLR-compatible flange focal distance.


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